Date post: | 16-Jan-2017 |
Category: |
Business |
Upload: | informa-australia |
View: | 55 times |
Download: | 0 times |
NATIONAL PPP SUMMIT 2016Craig O’Neill
November 2016
Honeywell Confidential © 2016 by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved.
Identifying, Managing and Mitigating Risk
during the operational phase of a PPP
• Developing a transparent performance management framework
• The use of data and analytics to measure and report on
performance
• Maintaining effective stakeholder relations
• Managing the people risk in the PPP operational phase
1
Honeywell Confidential © 2016 by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved.
Introduction - Identifying, Managing and
Mitigating Risk
• Technical Risks
• Delivery Risks
• Murphy’s Law
2
Honeywell Confidential © 2016 by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved.
Maintain the Asset at the Agreed Standard
3
Honeywell Confidential © 2016 by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved.
Delivery Risk
4
Honeywell Confidential © 2016 by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved.
Back in the Race
5
Honeywell Confidential © 2016 by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved.
Delivery Risk
• 200 KPI’s
• 10,000 Events per year
• 25 years
• Abatement Value
• 99.9% Service Levels
• Abatement Calibrations
6
Honeywell Confidential © 2016 by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved.
Murphy’s Law
7
Honeywell Confidential © 2016 by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved.
Identifying Risk
- High Level general risks
People Risks
Delivery Risk
Business Risk
- Detailed level Processes and /or individual assets
In what ways does the Key Input go wrong?
What causes it to go wrong
What are the effects
Control measures available to prevent the event or cause
8
Honeywell Confidential © 2016 by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved.
Identify, Manage, Mitigate
Identify
1. What is the:
a) Risk
b) Likelihood
c) Consequence
d) And therefore Risk Level
Manage
1. How to eliminate, control, depart
2. What does the Risk Level now look like
Mitigate
1. Has the action/procedure/control been put in place
9
Honeywell Confidential © 2016 by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved.
Quantitative Output
Consequence
Negligible Minor Serious Major Catastrophic
1% 10% 30% 70% 90%
Lik
elih
ood
Almost Certain 90% 90% 91% 93% 97% 99%
Highly Likely 70% 70% 73% 79% 91% 97%
Likely 30% 31% 37% 51% 79% 93%
Unlikely 10% 11% 19% 37% 73% 91%
Remote 1% 2% 11% 31% 70% 90%
10
Panic Barometer: Pre Control 75% Post Control 25%
Honeywell Confidential © 2016 by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved.
Quantitative Evaluation
11
Consequence
Catastrophic (0.9)
Loss, damage or interruption to business > $5M Financial loss greater than 80% of contract value Significant public interest, media involvement or regulatory intervention Significant impact on business reputation Fatality of employees, contractors, or the public.
Major (0.7)
Loss, damage or interruption to business > $1M but < $5M Financial loss > 50% but < 80% of contract value Moderate public interest, media involvement or regulatory intervention Moderate impact on business reputation Extensive injury or Hospitalisation of employees, contractors, or the public.
Serious (0.3)
Loss, damage or interruption to business > $100K but < $1M Financial loss > 20% but < 50% of contract value Some public interest, media involvement or regulatory intervention Some impact on business reputation Medical treatment of employees, contractors, or the public.
Minor (0.1)
Loss, damage or interruption to business > $5K but < $100K Financial loss > 5% but < 20% of contract value First-aid treatment of an employee, contractor, or a member of the
public
Negligible (0.01)
Other than above
Table 1: Consequence Criteria
Likelihood
Almost Certain (0.9)
Likely to occur frequently in the period of contract Likely to occur several times per year
Highly Likely (0.7)
Likely to occur several times in the period of contract Might occur once in 5 years
Likely (0.3)
Likely to occur in the period of contract Might occur once in 5 years
Unlikely (0.1)
Possible, but unlikely in the period of contract Might occur once in 10 years
Remote (0.01)
Highly unlikely in the period of contract Might occur once in 100 years
Table 2: Likelihood Criteria
The Risk Analysis Matrix uses the following formula for calculating the risk level:
R = L+C – (LxC)
Where; L is the likelihood score, and C is the Consequence score
This is derived from the probability of disjunctive events and leads to high scores for
either high likelihood, serious consequences or both.
Honeywell Confidential © 2016 by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved.
Managing Risk - People
• Training
• Communication
• Contingency Plans
12
Honeywell Confidential © 2016 by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved.
Managing - Data and Analytics
• Technology required to track:
• 30 - 200 KPI’s per Month
• 5,000 to 10,000 events annually
• Maintenance Management System
• Analysis Tools
• Predictive monitoring
• Quality of Service
13
Honeywell Confidential © 2016 by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved.
Managing Risk – Is There a Better Way?
• Abatements
• Balanced Scorecard approach
14
Honeywell Confidential © 2016 by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved.
Mitigating Risk
• Stakeholder Relations – 7-10 different organisations
• Contingency Planning
• Outside Reviews
• Strong Mobilisation
• Staff Competencies
15
Honeywell Confidential © 2016 by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved.
Summary
• Identifying, Managing and Mitigating Risk
• Management framework
• Data and analytics
• Stakeholder relations
• People risk
• Murphy’s Law
16