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Two Great Lakes Hit Record Low Levels: Climate Crisis orNatural Cycle?

In this Nov. 16, 2012 photo, a sand bar is exposed by low water, which

has made nearby docks and marinas largely unusable. (John Flesher/APPhoto)

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Lake Levels Impacted By:

Precipitation (magnitude and intensity) Evaporation/Temperature Runoff (land use) Crustal Rebound Climate Change natural Diversions into and out of the basin Dredging of connecting channels

Control Structures (Lake Sup./Lake Ont.) Climate Change man induced Withdrawals and consumptive uses

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Data 1860-1900: Milwaukee monthly average water levels per "Great LakesWater Levels, 1860-1990" US Dept of Commerce, NOAA, Sept 1992.

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MAXIMUM

DEPTH

923 FEET

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7/30/2019 CRCL Morning PlenaryFalling Lake Levels -- From a Slightly Older Perspective Daniel Injerd

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What, if anything, should we do about falling water levels?

Should we pursue active measures?

Control Lake Michigan/Huron outflowsIncrease diversions in? Decrease diversions out?

Reduce withdrawals and consumptive uses?Try to influence precip/evap through climate changepolicies?

Or should we pursue adaptive management?Dredging of harbors and boat rampsExtending water supply intakesLocal ecosystem improvement projects

7/30/2019 CRCL Morning PlenaryFalling Lake Levels -- From a Slightly Older Perspective Daniel Injerd

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These Guys Are Not Getting Great Lakes Water !

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850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

NetAnnualLakeMichiganPumpage(mgd)

Water Year

Figure 1. Illinois Lake Michigan Water Allocation Permittees' Total Annual Use

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Current Status of Illinois' Diversion Apr-13

Certified Running Cumulative

Accounting Flow Average Deviation

Year (cfs) (cfs) (cfs)2007 3094 3171 774

2008 3002 3165 972

2009 3135 3164 1037

2010* 2967 3158 1270

2011* 2838 3147 1632

2012* 2181 3117 2651*Estimated, based on final approved USGS Lemont Discharge value

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Glacial action shaped the Lake Michigan basin over multiple glacial

cycles. Ice of the most recent glaciation began leaving the basinabout 14,000 years ago (A).

A B

C D

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Glacial Ice Position About 10,000 Years Ago

Lake level falls to ~ 300 feet below present

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Chippewa Phase

River Drainage

Across Exposed

Lake Bottom

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GLACIAL LAKE CHICAGO Lake Level + 60 Ft1 32

14,500 yrs ago

5 MI

5 KM

14,000 yrs ago

CHICAGO

14,300 yrs ago

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Southern Lake Michigan Lake-Level :

Past 14,000 Years

14,000 Today

Historical

Mean Lake Level