SEMINAR

Creating Better Strategic Foresight from Stakeholder Insights September 8, 2014

The Need for Better Strategic Foresight

Torben Juul Andersen

Professor

Center for Global Strategic Responsiveness (CGSR) Department of International Economics and management

2

The Business Environment

“INDUSTRY”

Political and legal conditions

Social and demographic changes Technological shifts

Economic conditions

FIRM

Abrupt, Complex, Dynamic, Uncertain, Unpredictable, Unknown

What is going on?

Conflict zones, e.g., Ukraine,

Middle East, Syria, etc.

Trade embargos, regulation, etc. Financial and debt market crisis

The Internet …

An aging population in the west

New demand patterns

What are the implication?

© Andersen, T. J. (2014)

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Frontal lobes

Amygdala

Hippocampus

The New ’Brain’ Metaphor

Andersen, T.J. (2013), Strategic Management, Cambridge University Press.

Unexpected events happen

responsive actions are taken, and reactions observed → new insights! Combining fast responsive actions and observations with slow forward-looking reasoning!

© Andersen, T. J. (2014)

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Who are the First to Know?

Does the information pass through the middle?

Top management?

… or the frontline employees?

The Chief Executive is the last

to know what is going on! [Andy Grove]

© Andersen, T. J. (2014)

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Strategic Decision-Making

Forward-looking strategic planning considerations give ‘aspirations’ to strategic actions

Time

Top management:

Frontline managers & employees

Strategic planning discussions

Emerging strategic decisions

Dispersed strategic initiatives

Middle management:

© Andersen, T. J. (2014)

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Responsive Actions

Time

Top management:

Emerging strategic decisions

Dispersed strategic initiatives

Strategic planning discussions

Frontline managers & employees

Middle management:

Actions are taken in response to observed changes and provide new experiential ‘insights’

Does top management get these new insights in a timely and unbiased manner?

© Andersen, T. J. (2014)

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Interaction Between Top and Bottom

Level

Time

Frontline employees

the middle management layer

Top management

”INTERACTION”

Andersen, T.J. (2002), ’How to Reconcile the Strategy Dilemma?’, European Business Forum.

Other involved stakeholders

Get the information faster straight from the sources!

© Andersen, T. J. (2014)

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Central and Peripheral Processes

C

Strategic context

Create effective interaction between employees, and other stakeholders,

around the organizational periphery (P) and the executives at the center (C)

P

P

P P

P

Communication and

information processing

Communication and

information processing

Strategic context

Strategic context Strategic context

P

Andersen, T.J. (2013), Strategic Management, Cambridge University Press.

Individuals in (and around) the organization observe what is going on!

© Andersen, T. J. (2014)

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Conclusions

1) The business environment is increasingly uncertain and unpredictable

2) The environmental context is evolving along the way as we and others act

3) Individual stakeholders around the periphery, or in the frontline, are the first to observe and sense new developments

4) This information is not communicated effectively to top management

5) But, this can be accomplished by employing systematic data aggregation techniques

© Andersen, T. J. (2014)