Creating new business models for journalism – the American experience

Crossover Newsonomics

Ken Doctor

New Industry Analyst & Author,

NewsonomicsBusiness Journalism Day

March 13, 20131Thursday, March 14, 13

Crossover Newsonomics

2Thursday, March 14, 13

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013

Today

Our Cast of CharactersThe Age of Crossover

4 Major RealitiesSneak Previews!

The 1, 2, 3, 4 Strategy


Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 20134Thursday, March 14, 13


Mark ThompsonAcross Oceans, Media





Robert Thomson

“New”NewsCorp





Warren Buffett BH Media





Aaron Kushner

Orange County Register



Jim Moroney

Legs of

Revenue



Jim Moroney

Legs of

Revenue

5





Gary Farrugia

The Day





Peter Liguori Tribune

Company





Laura Lang

Time Inc.



Rob Grimshaw

The FT





Alisa Bowen

News Corp



Rolv Ryssdal

Schibsted



Mathias Dopfner

Axel Springer



Al Jazeera:A Growing

News Company



Arianna is Everywhere



Arianna is Everywhere



Mark Zuckerberg

Life is GOOD



Larry Page’s Google

Dominates Digital

Advertising



The Voice of God



The Voice of God



Jon Stewartis the New

Authority



Jon Stewartis the New

Authority



Seeking A New Growth Formula



Seeking A New Growth Formula



Are you keeping up with the changes?



In Play



The Great Metro Sell-Off





Boston Globe



Boston Globe

Los Angeles Times



Boston Globe

Los Angeles Times

Chicago Tribune



Boston Globe

Hartford Courant

Los Angeles Times

Chicago Tribune



Boston Globe

Hartford Courant

Orlando Sentinel

Los Angeles Times

Chicago Tribune



Boston Globe

Hartford Courant

Orlando Sentinel

South Florida Sun-Sentinel

Los Angeles Times

Chicago Tribune



Boston Globe

Hartford Courant

Orlando Sentinel

South Florida Sun-Sentinel

Baltimore Sun

Los Angeles Times

Chicago Tribune









San Diego Union-Tribune





Philadelphia Inquirer




Philadelphia Daily News







Tampa Tribune







Tampa Tribune

Chicago Sun-Times







Tampa Tribune

Chicago Sun-Times

Rocky Mountain News, Seattle P-I







Tampa Tribune

Chicago Sun-Times





BoGlobe$100M, Mid-2013



BoGlobe$100M, Mid-2013



Tribune Papers$750M, Mid-2013



Tribune Papers$750M, Mid-2013



In the Age of

Crossover



Print Digital (‘90s)





From Mostly Print/A Little

Digital to Mostly Digital/

Some Print







Crossover

From Analog to DigitalFrom Physical to Virtual



CLOSED!Video Stores



CLOSED!Video Stores



CLOSED!Music Stores



CLOSED!Music Stores



CLOSED!Bookstores



CLOSED!Bookstores



CLOSING?“Electronics” Stores









CLOSED!Newspapers



CLOSED!Newspapers



Remember...40Thursday, March 14, 13


Kodak-49%

Newspapers-45%

Sears-31%

41



Crossover

From Analog to DigitalFrom Physical to Virtual



@54% Worldwide

43

Smartphones Surpass Dumb Phones in 2013



Ebooks Surpass Print



Kindle owners buy 4X print-only buyers

44

Ebooks Surpass Print



Digital Music Sales Surpass Physical



Up from Nothing46Thursday, March 14, 13


Digital Ad Spending Surpasses PrintGlobal * U.S.* Brasil *

Australia * Russia

47





4Major Realities

of 2013



#1Print is Ending:

(Or is It?)



NewsCrossoverStrategies





Advance’s Digital-First,

Print-Last Revolution



Now 3 Days a Week,

Reinforcing Sunday



Now 3 Days a Week,

Reinforcing Sunday





Concerned Reader

New Orleans



MichiganNew Orleans

AlabamaSyracuse

Harrisburg54Thursday, March 14, 13


Next Up?55Thursday, March 14, 13


88%New Orleans’ Print Revenue Retention



1%New Orleans’

Print Sales



Rapid, Digital-First: Three days of print, intended to capture 85% of current print revenue

Rapid Cost Reduction: About 27%

reduction in costs

Profit Improvement: About 11%

Big Question: How Sustainable?

Advance’s Arithmetic



Digital First Media Goes 3 Days a Week



Digital First -- or Only



OC Register Print-First, Reader-First Revolution





Major Content Expansion

Register’s 25 community newspapers now carry 3X more content, and are wholly redesigned into broadsheets





100 NewEditorial

Hires+25 Interns300 Total





+5%Circulation

Up



#2Reader Revenue

Revolution (& Truth About Paywalls)



Digital Circulationis

Biggest Game-Changer



More than 500 Dailies

Worldwide Will Have Paywalls by Mid-2013



Circulation Revenues2005-2011Slipping

Downward68Thursday, March 14, 13


Circulation Revenues

2012-?Upward Slope, if Paywalls in Place



U.S. DailiesCirculation Revenue

$10 Billion



For Top Models

Circulation Revenue Increase Now Matching

+ the Ad Decrease



Charleston Post & Courier

(Last 5 mos, 2012)

Ad revenue down = @2-4%Circ revenue up = 10%



New York Times(2012)

Ad revenue down = 7.5.%Circ revenue up = 8.5%




The Game: Getting to Zero



NYT’s Uniques: 30MNYT’s Print Readers:

1M

The 3% Solution



3% Solution

A small percentage of web uniques form a new business



The Sunday Paper is the New Play



Digital Only: $260Digital + Sunday= $210



Sunday30-40% of total ad

revenue50% of total ad profit



Paywalls2012

WhichReaders?



You Know Them81Thursday, March 14, 13


They Are Loyal



Digital: 83% of Print Price



All Access is the Business Model
























...& Uniqueness85Thursday, March 14, 13


“Membership”Replaces

Subscriptions



Membership Arrives

L.A. Times, Boston Globe, The Day, a small daily in Connecticut

The idea: Deepen the relationship to subscribers, especially All-Access

subscribers



Social Group: Country Squires

Born in 1954

Lifestage Group: Accumulated Wealth

HH Income: $100,000+

Zillow Home Value: $455,000

Registered for Sun WinefestDream Giveaway

$780.16 in total ConsumerRevenue since 2008

PRIZM Demographic Pro!le

Reads Grace magazineand Sound & Country

Active Mon-Sun Subscriberon EZ Pay since 2001

Downloaded tickets toEastern CT Symphony throughThe Day Passport rewards programRegistered user on theday.com

Signed up for daily deals

Registered user on theday.comSigned up for breaking news

Born in 1956

Homeownersin Old Lyme, CT

custom Town Page: Old Lyme custom Town Page: Waterford

Two-week vacationeach July since 2003

The Day Member Archetypes“Carol and Michael”

Likely empty nesters

Indexes high forinternational travel 1x per year

Indexes high forhaving an annuity

Membership=Targeting



The Pricing Revolution



$99: Print + Digital$69: Digital Only

$39: 2010 Print Price





The Economist A Pricing

Leader



$160from

$127





Big Upward Trend



The New Dispatch



The New Dispatch

$360 from

$180



Paywall Trends:Pricing Up



Paywall Trends:Fewer Articles



...And Yet

Paywalls 1.0



Multiplying Pay Middlemen



New Ways to Pay99Thursday, March 14, 13


New Ways to Pay99Thursday, March 14, 13


Bundles PPV

Time Passes



E-Book PushGlobe: At least monthly



E-Book PushGlobe: At least monthly



Bite-Sized Paid Content



#3It’s a

5- Screen World

& The Tablet is Key




Desktop/LaptopSmartphone

TabletConnected TVConnected Car



Screens in Motion(Multi-Screen World Report)





The Mobile Money

Gap33% - Traffic5% - Revenue



#4Advertising

isMorphing





U.S. Newspaper Ad Revenues

1/2-Sized(in 5+ years)



The Big PictureNewspapers: Down in high single digits

Magazines: DownBroadcast: A little up

Cable: UpDigital: Up most dramatically

110



It’s AboutTime

& Money



Time Spent / Ad Revenue Mismatch



Digital Global Adspend 2012:

$100Billion

113



67%: Big 5 Take

80%: Google in Paid Search, 1/2 of all digital ads

Advanced Targeting:Key to success



At $4B+, Facebook Digital Ad Revenue

Exceeds of Daily Newspapers’



Newspapers Are in the Wrong End

of the Market



It’s About Performance



Movement to Sponsorship,

“Share of Voice”



Movement to Video



Movement to Video



Movement to Events



Movement to Events



Content Marketing

Arrives



Linking Top News Brands



“Brand Connect”Washington Post



Brand ConnectWashington Post



Speakeasy: Connecting Social to Content



Newspapers Find 3rd Leg of Revenue:

Digital Agencies



Media Become

Re-SellersSEMSEO

Site BuildingFacebook

MobileYahoo

Content MarketingGroupon!



The Big Market

27 millionsmall/medium

businesses



Emerging Business Model

Reader RevenueAd Revenue

Marketing ServicesEvents

In-Sourcing Work





Sneak Previews!



Sneak Previews!



And....

Sneak Previews!



And....

Google Glass

Sneak Previews!



Connected Cars

Ford Sync

Sneak Previews!



Connected Cars

Ford Sync

Sneak Previews!



Amazon Same-Day Reshapes

Retail

Sneak Previews!



Amazon Same-Day Reshapes

Retail

Sneak Previews!



Comp-Gen

Sneak Previews!



Comp-Gen

Sneak Previews!



Top 10 Lists

Resume TipsBest Parks

Toddler TipsMayors

+++135Thursday, March 14, 13


Skift: New Travel Site

Sneak Preview



Skift: New Travel Site

Sneak Preview



California’sNew Site



What Does Your Pyramid Look Like?



What Does Your Pyramid Look Like?



Professional ContentExpert Content

Community Content Computer-Generated

Content






#12

1, 2, 3, 4is the Emerging

Media Model141Thursday, March 14, 13


The 1, 2, 3, 4Strategy



1 Brand

Unified Brand Message



Media AnywhereMultiplies Potential

Audience



All-Access is

The Media Model



2 Strong Legs of Revenue



Re-Connection

Print Ads & CircDigital Ads & Circ



3 Products

Print Online Mobile



4GVideo is ascendant



1 Brand 2 Legs of Revenue

3 Products 4G



The New Virtuous Circle

Data Asset Management is the

New Base of the Business,

Reconnecting Readers & Commerce



2020: Telling Stories About Daily Newspapers



[email protected]

Twitter: @kdoctor

www.newsonomics.com


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Creating new business models for journalism – the American experience

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