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1
CRedcarbon reduction
Hard Choices Ahead
Energy Science Director: HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
Renewable EnergyA Route to A Low Carbon Future
20th March 2007
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvCRed
2
Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
(ppm
)
3
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000T
emp
erat
ure
Ris
e (o C
)
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Tem
per
atu
re R
ise
(o C)
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Tem
per
atu
re R
ise
(o C)
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
actual
actual
actual
predicted
predicted
predictedIs Global Warming man made?
Prediction: Anthropogenic only
Not a good match between 1920 and 1970
Prediction: Natural only
good match until 1960
Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic
Generally a good match
Predictions include:
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
• Sulphates and ozone
• Solar and volcanic activity
4Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation
Source: Tim
Osborne, C
RU
Change in precipitation 1961-2001Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood
5
(Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London)
Norwich
Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise
Norwich City would be playing water polo!
6
19792003
Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite
imagery
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
•20% reduction in 24 years
7
"Clean Coal"
Traditional Coal ~40%- coal could
supply 40 - 50% by 2020
Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration
2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS carbon trading will affect
this
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently
35% )
available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade
~ 2p + but recent trends put figure
much higher
nuclear fission (long term)
0 - 30% (France 80%) - (currently 20% and falling)
new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed
2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
potential contribution to
Electricity Supply in 2020
costs in 2020
Wholesale Electricity Prices since NETA
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
p/k
Wh
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Inst
all
ed C
ap
aci
ty (
MW
)
New Build ?
ProjectedActual
Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2017.
8
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
9
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km
But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.
10
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas
50% + available, but research needed in some areas
2.5 - 4
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.
Transport Fuels:
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?
• Compressed gas from methane from waste.
11
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas
2.5 - 4
Wave/TidalStream
100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020
4 - 8p
Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention
notcosted
Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
12
Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004
13
• Top floor is an exhibition area – also to promote PV
• Windows are semi transparent
• Mono-crystalline PV on roof ~ 27 kW in 10 arrays
• Poly- crystalline on façade ~ 6/7 kW in 3 arrays
ZICER Building
Photo shows only part of top
Floor
14
Arrangement of Cells on Facade
Individual cells are connected horizontally
As shadow covers one column all cells are inactive
If individual cells are connected vertically, only those cells actually in shadow are affected.
15
Use of PV generated energy
Sometimes electricity is exportedInverters are only 91% efficient
Most use is for computers
DC power packs are inefficient typically less than 60% efficientNeed an integrated approach
Peak output is 34 kW
16
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our COAL fired power stations within 10 years - unlikely.
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power
• Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?
Actual Nuclear Projected
Nuclear Closures
Actual Coal with FGD
Opted Out Coal
New Nuclear ???
New Coal ???
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity (M
W)
• Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015
• New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2016
• New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2016
17
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
• we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS
• imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, AlgeriaAre we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? –
Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route
and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
18
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
Around 4 million in the Diocese of Norwich.
In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person
Is this Fair?
On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
19
Raising Awareness• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine.
Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.
• Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons.
• A Mobile Phone charger: up to 20 kWh per year
~ 1000 balloons each year. 10 kg CO2
• Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
20
Saving Energy – A Practical GuideWays to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint
Micro Wind
Micro CHP
Heat Pumps
21
Involve the local Community
• The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine.
• On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.
• Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward.
• Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.
22
Electricity Statistics: Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year.
Broadland 5057 kWh Breckland 5612 kWh
North Norfolk 5668 kWh South Norfolk 5797 kWh
Kings Lynn and 5908 kWh Great 5144 kWh West Norfolk Yarmouth
A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands can supply twice domestic demand of Norwich or 66% on average.
(or 22% of total demand)
Saves ~ 70 000 to 75 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or 40 000 hot air balloons each year.
The alternatives:
Persuade 30 000 motorists never to drive the car againOr 300 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year.
Widespread deployment of small scale renewables, and energy conservation.
23
Renewable Electricity Generation in GB
Renewable Generation represented 4.2% of final demand in 2005
24
Renewable Electricity Generation in GB by Region
25
Renewable Electricity Generation by type and County in EEDA Region
The output from Scroby Sands is sufficient to provide 95% of domestic demands of Norwich and Ipswich combined or 30% of demand on average
26
% Renewables
Rank of all districts ex 284
Notes
Breckland 41.45% 11th 36.6% from Thetford
Great Yarmouth 38.05% 12th 36.1% from Scroby
Mid Suffolk 19.12% 27th 15.9% from Eye
GB Average 4.20%
Broadland 4.09% 93rd
Ipswich 2.91% 116th
Norwich 2.59% 129th
Waveney 2.22% 143rd
King's Lynn and West Norfolk 1.45% 170th
South Norfolk 1.31% 175th
St Edmundsbury 1.05% 185th
Forest Heath 0.99% 189th
North Norfolk 0.68% 205th
Babergh 0.00% 284th =
Suffolk Coastal 0.00% 284th =
Proportion of Electricity Consumption provided by Renewables: Norfolk and Suffolk Districts
27
Conclusions• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades
• Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.
• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy and small changes to behaviour.
It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.
Awareness Raising is important
• Sensible integrated design of buildings, incorporating innovative use of renewable energy, adaptive management systems and addressing functional energy uses are also important.
Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.
• Otherwise Nuclear???
• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.
28
WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/
This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links
• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room
Conclusions
Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."
29Animation Courtesy of Rob Hannington