Credit Suisse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents Results April 2013

7/30/2019 Credit Suisse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents Results April 2013

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CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES (USA) LLC

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, INFORMATION ON TRADE ALERTS, ANALYST MODEL PORTFOLIOS AND

THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit www.credit-suisse.com/ researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683. U.S. Disclosure:

Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that

could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

May 13, 2013

Daniel Oppenheim, CFA

Homebuilding & Building Products

212-325-5726

[email protected]

Michael Dahl

[email protected]

William Alexis

212-538-3992

[email protected]

Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents April 2013

Source: Credit Suisse

0

10

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30

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90

Apr-11

May-11

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HomePriceIndex

50 - Higher than Prior Month

Home prices continue to increase on theback of very favorable affordability andsteady declines in homes for sale.


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April 13Slide 2

April Survey of Real Estate Agents:Pricing Mom entum Doesnt Miss a Beat in April Demand remai ns strong while supply declines; prices continue to m ove higher: Rising prices remains the most

common theme in our survey, while declining inventories is a close second. Higher prices and low inventories continueto drive demand as buyers are growing increasingly concerned that they will miss opportunities in the market by waitingon the sidelines. However, competition remains fierce, and in some markets, buyers have become frustrated with losingout on bids.

Multiple offers becoming comm onplace: Our home price index increased again to 84.8 from 83.7, suggesting thatprices continue to experience very broad improvement as a greater share of agents pointed to higher prices in April vs.March. We expect prices to continue to head higher, although similar to our March commentary, we think it is becomingincreasingly difficult to see additional increases in our index, although any reading above 50 points to rising prices. Thegreatest strength was in CA, FL, and the Southwest (Phoenix, Vegas), although every market experienced higher prices.

Traffic remains at healthy in April: Our buyer traffic index fell slightly to 64 from 66 in April, but continued to indicatethat levels surpassed agents expectations. According to agents, the slightly lower index reading was a function ofbuyers frustration with the intense level of competition for limited inventories in certain markets (i.e., consistently getting

outbid); however, buyers were said to be willing to step back in given the right opportunity. Heightened urgency as time to sell falls further: Our time to sell index a leading indicator for home price trends

came in at 81 in April, pointing to less time needed to sell a home. Urgency has remained strong in the market and hasseen consistent improvement through the spring season. Buyers see declining inventory, rising prices, and areconcerned that rates will soon increase, leading to added urgency. Buyers are said to not want to miss out onopportunities.

Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Nov-12 49.0 66.4 46.7 74.0 63.3

Dec-12 52.0 68.3 49.9 75.7 68.3

Jan-13 59.0 74.6 52.4 74.7 71.5

Feb-13 65.1 79.3 51.5 72.7 75.4

Mar-13 66.1 83.7 53.0 71.7 80.8

Apr-13 64.4 84.8 52.9 73.7 81.0

Point Change (1.8) 1.1 (0.0) 2.0 0.2

45%

38%

17%

Traffic Levels Versus Expectations

More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected

72%

11%5%

25%

73%

28%

3%

17%

67%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell

How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare tothe Prior 30 Days...

Increased Remained the same Decreased

Source: Credit Suisse


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April 13Slide 3

Table of ContentsKey Housing Markets: Key Housing Markets Continued:

4 Atlanta, Georgia 26 Orlando, Florida5 Austin, Texas 27 Philadelphia-Southern New Jersey6 Baltimore, Maryland 28 Phoenix, Arizona7 Boston, Massachusetts 29 Portland, Oregon8 Charleston, South Carolina 30 Raleigh, North Carolina9 Charlotte, North Carolina 31 Richmond, Virginia

10 Chicago, Illinois 32 Sacramento, California11 Cincinnati, Ohio 33 San Antonio, Texas12 Columbus, Ohio 34 San Diego, California13 Dallas, Texas 35 San Francisco, California14 Denver, Colorado 36 Sarasota, Florida15 Detroit, Michigan 37 Seattle, Washington16 Fort Myers, Florida 38 St. Louis, Missouri17 Houston, Texas 39 Tampa, Florida18 Inland Empire (Riverside-San Bernardino), California 40 Tucson, Arizona19 Jacksonville, Florida 41 Virginia Beach, Virginia20 Las Vegas, Nevada 42 Washington, D.C.21 Los Angeles, California 43 Wilmington, North Carolina22 Miami, Florida Appendix:23 Minneapolis, Minnesota 45 Historical Trends by Market24 Nashville, Tennessee 50 Agent Recommendations25 New York-Northern New Jersey 52 Survey Methodology


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April 13Slide 4

Atlanta, GA Pricing Continues to Rise, Pushing Some Traditional Buyers out of the Market

Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau

(9,146 single-family building permits in 2012, 5th largest market in the country)

Comments from Real Estate Agents:

Were signing fewer contracts despite the solid demandbecause we dont have enough inventory to sell.

We continue to see investors dominating the market, butthere just isnt enough inventory to go around. Hedge funds

have drained the foreclosure inventory before it gets torealtors.

Buyers feel pressure to sign contracts as they feel homevalues have hit bottom and are on their way up.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic fell again in April, but still met agentsexpectations as our index declined to 54 from 64 in March, in-line with a reading of 50. Agents noted that some buyers were

growing frustrated with losing out on multiple offers, given thelevel of competition in the market.

Home prices continued to increase, as our price index came inat 82 from 83 in March.

Inventories edged lower and the time to sell fell further.Declines in each metric are positives for future pricing.

0

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Apr-1

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3

BuyerTrafficIndex

50 - Exceeds Expectations

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Apr-11

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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexNov-12 50.0 52.9 41.2 73.5 61.8

Dec-12 53.3 55.6 43.8 75.0 68.8

Jan-13 45.5 36.4 45.5 90.9 59.1

Feb-13 73.1 84.6 42.9 92.9 76.9

Mar-13 63.6 83.3 50.0 75.0 87.5

Apr-13 53.6 82.1 46.4 57.1 71.4

Point Change (10.1) (1.2) (3.6) (17.9) (16.1)

29%

50%

21%



64%

21%

7%

36%

64%

43%

0%

14%

50%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

70%





5/55

April 13Slide 5

Austin, TX Jobs & Economic Confidence Drive People into Austin


(7,970 single-family permits in 2012, 7th largest market in the country)


There is increased competition in the market for a scarenumber of listings. We recently put two listings undercontract just from putting signs in the yard.

People keep flooding into Austin. New home construction is

still way behind so there is an extreme shortage of inventory.There is an intense level of activity nowadays.

Jobs, jobs, jobs. There is a tremendous influx of new peopleentering the city.

People are fed up wasting their money on rent. They arejumping off the fence and going into the for-sale market.

Our Take:

Traffic came in above agents expectations again in April, asour traffic index increased to 82 from 77 in March. Agentscited the strong local economy and higher rental rates for the

better traffic levels in April. Agents continued to overwhelmingly point to higher prices in

April, as our index came in at 96 from 97 in March.

Agents indicated that inventories fell further in April, even asprices continue to rise, which we think would lead to sellersplacing homes on the market. The time to sell also fell in April.We view these as positives for future pricing.

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexNov-12 42.3 70.8 34.6 76.9 76.9

Dec-12 53.1 78.1 53.1 71.9 71.9

Jan-13 57.1 82.1 57.1 64.3 75.0

Feb-13 76.7 93.3 66.7 85.7 93.3

Mar-13 76.7 96.7 63.3 63.3 93.3

Apr-13 81.8 95.8 69.2 76.9 92.3

Point Change 5.2 (0.8) 5.9 13.6 (1.0)

73%

18%

9%



92%

0% 0%8%

62%

15%

0%

38%

85%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%





6/55

April 13Slide 6

Baltimore, MD Demand Falls, but Pricing Still Strong as Inventories Drop




Prices are continuing to improve, but we cant sell anythingbecause we dont have any inventory to showcase to buyers.I am also not so sure buyers like the inventory we have tooffer, they are looking for better quality.

Some buyers are still drawn to the market by affordability.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic took a sharp hit in April, as our traffic index fell to25 from 61 in March. Traffic has been volatile in Baltimore, andlevels have now failed to meet expectations in 5 out of the past

7 months. Despite the sharp drop in traffic, agents indicated that prices

were higher. Our price index came in at 100 from 80 in March.

Our home listings and time to sell indexes pointed to declinesin each category, a positive for future pricing, although wethink better demand is needed to support consistent priceincreases.

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BuyerTrafficIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexNov-12 28.6 64.3 41.7 92.9 71.4

Dec-12 38.9 50.0 33.3 83.3 66.7

Jan-13 33.3 55.6 62.5 87.5 72.2

Feb-13 66.7 58.3 50.0 91.7 91.7

Mar-13 61.1 80.0 55.6 75.0 65.0

Apr-13 25.0 100.0 50.0 100.0 87.5

Point Change (36.1) 20.0 (5.6) 25.0 22.5

0%

50%50%



100%

0% 0%0%

100%

25%

0% 0%

75%

0%

20%

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80%

100%

120%




0

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120

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HomePriceIndex



7/55

April 13Slide 7

Boston, MA Low Inventories, Higher Rental Rates Keep Traffic Above Expectations in April




Inventory keeps falling and buyers are ready to enter themarket now no waiting.

Interest rates are still low, and with high rent increases,buyers are taking a really close look at the value in the for-

sale market. The lack of supply is great for traffic and prices, but it is

hurting sales since we dont have inventory to move.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic exceeded agents expectations again in April, asour traffic index came in at 75 from 81 in March. Agentsattributed the traffic levels in April to lower inventories (creating

urgency) and higher rental rates. Home prices showed continued improvement in April, as our

home price index came in at 92 from 89 in March.

Agents indicated that inventories and the time needed to sell ahome both fell in April, positives for future pricing. We thinkthat as demand remains strong, the market can support higherprices in the coming months.

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Oct-1

2

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2

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3

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3

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3

Apr-1

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BuyerTrafficIndex


0102030405060708090

100

Apr-11

May

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t-11

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Mar-13

Apr-13

HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexNov-12 53.3 56.3 57.7 75.0 63.3

Dec-12 50.0 70.0 60.5 84.2 72.5

Jan-13 61.1 80.6 52.8 76.3 81.6

Feb-13 73.3 86.7 53.6 73.3 76.7

Mar-13 80.8 88.5 65.4 60.7 82.1

Apr-13 75.0 91.7 60.0 79.2 75.0

Point Change (5.8) 3.2 (5.4) 18.5 (7.1)

59%

33%

8%



83%

0%

17%17%

80%

17%

0%

20%

67%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%





8/55

April 13Slide 8

Charleston, SC Buyers Search for Better Inventory, Traffic Falls




Were not seeing the same level of activity from first-timebuyers anymore.

I believe that buyers arent drawn to the current selection ofinventories. What we have for sale isnt very attractive and I

think buyers arent responding so well. We need betterhomes to sell.

Appraisals are actually loosening up a little bit.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic slipped in April, coming in below agentsexpectations, as our traffic index fell to 33 from 57 in March.Traffic has remained volatile in recent months, with traffic

falling short of expectations in 3 out of the past 4 months. Despite the lower traffic, prices continue to move higher,

though fewer agents saw rising prices. Our home price indexcame in at 67 from 86 in March.

Inventories and the time to sell both fell in April, which we viewas positives for future pricing. However, we would like to seebetter traffic trends to support higher prices going forward.

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Apr-1

1

May-1

1

Jun-1

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Sep-1

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexNov-12 50.0 60.0 50.0 60.0 60.0

Dec-12 50.0 70.0 40.0 41.7 66.7

Jan-13 25.0 75.0 50.0 25.0 62.5

Feb-13 25.0 66.7 50.0 50.0 37.5

Mar-13 57.1 85.7 50.0 57.1 78.6

Apr-13 33.3 66.7 50.0 66.7 66.7

Point Change (23.8) (19.0) 0.0 9.5 (11.9)

17%

33%

50%



33%

0% 0%

67%

100%

67%

0% 0%

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0%

20%

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60%

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9/55

April 13Slide 9

Charlotte, NC Pricing Continues to Rise, Enticing Buyers to Get in and Participate in Recovery




It is starting to become a sellers market and buyers arenthesitating to bid prices higher.

Rents are becoming too expensive. Buyers see their rentalrates and compare that to the for-sale market and they

realize that owning can make more sense. Interest rates are low and buyers are understanding that the

market is on its way back up again.

Buyers are still looking at opportunities but realize that themarket has changed. There arent as many steals anddeals as before, but they are still serious about buying.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic remained above agents expectations for this timeof year, although our index fell to 65 from 91 in March (anyreading above 50 points to better than expected traffic).

Prices saw additional improvement in April, as our home priceindex came in at 83 from 100 in March (remained above 50).

Inventories were flat in April, while the time to sell declined.We view the lower time to sell as a positive for future pricing,and believe that as long as demand remains healthy, flatinventories can also work to support higher pricing.

0102030405060708090

100

Apr-1

1

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-1

1

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1

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Jan-1

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2

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BuyerTrafficIndex


0

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r-13

Ap

r-13

HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexNov-12 59.1 72.7 40.9 81.8 65.0

Dec-12 50.0 72.2 44.4 83.3 61.1

Jan-13 75.0 85.0 54.5 86.4 75.0

Feb-13 86.4 81.8 45.5 72.7 63.6

Mar-13 90.9 100.0 63.6 72.7 95.0

Apr-13 65.4 83.3 46.2 46.2 73.1

Point Change (25.5) (16.7) (17.5) (26.6) (21.9)

54%

23%

23%



67%

23%15%

33%

62%

23%

0%

15%

62%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

70%





10/55

April 13Slide 10

Chicago, IL Traffic Above Expectations with Rising Prices; Inventory Continues to Fall




Low prices are still attracting prospective buyers, but someare still only looking for bargains. Other prospects are slowto make a move.

Inventory is low, but weve been seeing more traffic. It has

been a recipe for higher prices. There are buyers out there who are worried about higher

rates. The idea of having to pay more if they wait is drivingthem to buy now.

Affordability is still great. Buyers dont see any reason towait.

Our Take:

Traffic came in to exceed expectations again in April, as ourtraffic index came in at 60 from 64 in March, down slightly butstill above 50. This marks the fourth consecutive month of

better than expected traffic. Pricing showed additional improvement in April, as our home

price index came in at 70 from 76 in March (still above 50).

Inventories fell modestly, while the time to sell saw a greaterdecline. We believe that with healthy demand, declines inthese two categories will work to drive higher home prices inthe coming months.

0

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50

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Apr-1

1

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Jul-1

1

Aug-1

1

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1

Oct-1

1

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

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3

Apr-1

3

BuyerTrafficIndex


0

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Ap

r-11

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Ma

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Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

HomePriceIndex

50 -Higher than Prior Month

Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexNov-12 41.1 42.6 47.9 78.6 58.9

Dec-12 46.4 44.6 50.0 81.5 62.5

Jan-13 60.6 62.0 50.0 78.0 59.2

Feb-13 68.3 60.9 57.4 64.1 68.8

Mar-13 63.5 76.4 51.6 77.8 75.0

Apr-13 59.6 70.0 41.7 61.5 73.1

Point Change (3.9) (6.4) (9.9) (16.2) (1.9)

42%

35%

23%



52%

17% 12%

36%

83%

31%

12%0%

58%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%





11/55

April 13Slide 11

Cincinnati, OH Traffic Down Slightly, but Inventory Remains Low and Confidence High




I think buyers are realizing that the area is turning into asellers market. Our listing inventory is down 15%, interestrates are still low and buyers know they must get off thefence soon.

Pent-up demand coupled with people feeling better abouttheir jobs, low interest rates, plus investors looking forhomes to turn into rentals are all driving higher traffic.

Our Take:

Traffic decreased in April, as our traffic index dipped to 50from 67 in March, although levels still met agents expectationsfor this time of year (a reading of 50).

Home prices showed additional improvement, despite thelower traffic as our home price index increased to 81 from 58in March.

Our home listings index came in at 81, while our time to sellindex also came in at 81, both above a 50, indicating declinesin each metric. We view this as a positive for future pricing.

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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexNov-12 66.7 66.7 50.0 75.0 50.0

Dec-12 59.1 54.5 55.0 81.8 68.2

Jan-13 71.4 57.1 42.9 92.9 71.4

Feb-13 70.0 60.0 50.0 60.0 80.0

Mar-13 66.7 58.3 58.3 83.3 83.3

Apr-13 50.0 81.3 50.0 81.3 81.3

Point Change (16.7) 22.9 (8.3) (2.1) (2.1)

28%

43%

29%



63%

13%

0%

38%

75%

38%

0%

13%

63%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%





12/55

April 13Slide 12

Columbus, OH Traffic Bounces Back, Buyers see Rising Prices and Want to Jump Back in




Inventory is very low, helping drive prices higher. Buyerssee higher prices and want to start looking for homes.

I think traffic would be a bit better with higher inventories.We dont have anything to showcase to buyers. Our

inventories are too low. Appraisers havent been as bad lately. I think the higher

prices are making them a bit more realistic in theirevaluations.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic rebounded in April, as our traffic index improvedto 69 from 40 in March. Higher prices, low inventories, andfavorable practices from appraisers all contributed to stronger

traffic in April. Agents pointed to higher prices in April, as our home price

index increased to 79 from 60 in March (fourth consecutivemonth of higher prices).

Inventories and the time to sell both fell in April (both indexescame in above a neutral reading of 50). As a result, we expectprices to show additional improvement in the coming months.

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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexNov-12 45.5 63.6 36.4 90.9 77.3

Dec-12 50.0 54.5 35.0 72.7 59.1

Jan-13 50.0 75.0 50.0 66.7 83.3

Feb-13 57.1 68.8 42.9 68.8 87.5

Mar-13 40.0 60.0 40.0 80.0 90.0

Apr-13 68.8 78.6 50.0 78.6 92.9

Point Change 28.8 18.6 10.0 (1.4) 2.9

37%

63%

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71%

17%

0%14%

67%

14%14% 17%

86%

0%

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13/55

April 13Slide 13

Dallas, TX Traffic Off Record Highs, but Levels Still Strong on Affordability, Greater Confidence


(17,821 single-family permits in 2012, 2nd largest market in the country)


More stability in the economy seems to be the mostsignificant influence on my buyers lately.

Consumer confidence is high and people want to takeadvantage of these low rates.

Buyers are responding well to the positive news in themedia about housing, low interest rates, and the thought thatit is a good time to get into the market.

Buyers are more positive about the market and dont wantto miss out on the upturn.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic exceeded agents expectations again in April, asour traffic index came in at 80, a bit lower than the 92 inMarch, but any reading above 50 points to better than

expected traffic. Agents pointed to broad price improvement as our price index

improved to 97 from 83 in March.

Inventories fell further in April, as did the time needed to sell ahome. As a result, we think prices will continue to improvefrom current levels, as declines in both metrics are positiveindications for future pricing.

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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40

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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexNov-12 59.1 63.6 40.0 50.0 59.1

Dec-12 58.3 54.2 45.0 72.7 63.6

Jan-13 56.3 81.3 50.0 75.0 65.6

Feb-13 70.8 79.2 50.0 75.0 79.2

Mar-13 91.7 83.3 54.5 70.8 95.8

Apr-13 80.0 96.7 67.9 78.6 90.0

Point Change (11.7) 13.3 13.3 7.7 (5.8)

66%

27%

7%



93%

0%7%7%

64%

7%0%

36%

87%

0%

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40%

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D CO L I i i S li h B F i ll L ki F H O i D i dl


14/55

April 13Slide 14

Denver, CO Lower Inventories in Spotlight, Buyers Frantically Looking For Homes as Options Dwindle




My listings are getting bombarded with showingsimmediately after going the market and are going undercontract in hours, not days after listing. Inventory is reallyvery low. Traditional buyers are even outbidding investorssometimes.

Buyers are out and looking as the economy improves andinterest rates stay low.

There are fewer homes in inventory and prices are rising.Buyers are going nuts looking for something to buy.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic came in to beat agents expectations for this timeof year, as our buyer traffic index improved to 75 from 71 inMarch. Low inventories have been a theme across markets in

April, and Denver is no exception, with agents crediting thedecline in homes for sale for better traffic and higher prices.

Our home price index pointed to further price increases, as itimproved to 94 from 90 in March.

We expect prices to continue to increase, as our home listingsand time to sell indexes pointed to declines in both metrics.This is a positive for home prices in the coming months.

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

IndexNov-12 63.5 68.5 43.5 70.4 66.7

Dec-12 56.8 65.9 50.0 93.2 73.8

Jan-13 69.6 82.1 51.9 76.8 76.8

Feb-13 73.9 87.5 52.2 84.8 93.8

Mar-13 70.8 89.6 54.5 69.6 76.1

Apr-13 75.0 93.8 65.0 77.1 79.2

Point Change 4.2 4.2 10.5 7.5 3.1

50%50%

0%



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5% 4%13%

60%

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63%

0%

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D i MI L S l F bl Aff d bili K D i B hi d T ffi i A il


15/55

April 13Slide 15

Detroit, MI Low Supply, Favorable Affordability are Key Drivers Behind Traffic in April




We have the same about of buyers but the supply issignificantly smaller. This has done a good job driving priceshigher.

Inventory is down almost 25% in our area and prices are on

the rise for the second straight year. More people can nowafford to sell and as a result, they can afford to buy.

Favorable affordability and low interest rates are bringingbuyers back to the table.

Appraisals are becoming a bit easer to deal with becauseprices are rising.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic dipped slightly in April, as our index came in at 57from 68 in March, although levels still exceeded agentsexpectations (any reading above 50). Agents noted that rising

prices have helped inspire confidence and drive better sales inthe move-up market.

Prices showed additional improvement, as our home priceindex increased to 89 from 85 in March.

Inventories and the time to sell both declined in April. We viewthese as positives for future pricing trends.

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Nov-12 32.1 64.3 54.2 82.1 60.7

Dec-12 37.5 79.2 40.9 79.2 66.7

Jan-13 40.0 66.7 60.7 86.7 63.3

Feb-13 58.3 86.1 55.6 75.0 79.4

Mar-13 67.5 85.0 55.3 72.5 84.2

Apr-13 57.1 89.3 57.7 78.6 82.1

Point Change (10.4) 4.3 2.4 6.1 (2.1)

36%

43%

21%



86%

8% 7%7%

69%

21%7%

23%

71%

0%

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40%

60%

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100%




Ft M FL I t F ll F th F i B t L k B f P i R t Hi h


16/55

April 13Slide 16

Ft. Myers, FL Inventory Falls Further Forcing Buyers to Look Before Prices Run too High




Inventory keeps falling and this has caused some buyers tobuy that were previously just looking and waiting.

Snowbirds are staying here a bit longer than usual and thathas given us a little boost for this time of year.

Buyers realize that inventory is down, prices are stable, andthat the bargain basement days are over.

Buyers must think its still Christmas. They are out in themarket buying everything they see.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic rebounded in April, bouncing back to meetagents expectations for this time of year, as our index came inat 54 from 38 in March. Agents noted that falling inventoriesand stable pricing helped traffic in April.

Home prices increased further in April, as our home priceindex came in at 79 from 77 in March.

We expect prices to continue to increase, as our home listingsand time to sell indexes pointed to declines both of thesemetrics. We view that as a positive for future pricing trends.

0

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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Nov-12 62.5 87.5 45.8 70.8 87.5

Dec-12 28.6 85.7 50.0 71.4 75.0

Jan-13 47.4 85.0 40.0 72.5 77.5

Feb-13 50.0 75.0 38.9 83.3 66.7

Mar-13 37.5 77.3 45.5 72.7 63.6

Apr-13 53.3 78.6 42.9 82.1 82.1

Point Change 15.8 1.3 (2.6) 9.4 18.5

33%

40%

27%



64%

21%

7%

29%

71%

21%

7% 7%

71%

0%

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40%

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80%




H t TX C t R l ti d Aff d bilit D i M h Hi h T ffi i A il


17/55

April 13Slide 17

Houston, TX Corporate Relocations and Affordability Drive Much Higher Traffic in April


(28,568 single-family permits in 2012, largest market in the country)


People that have been sitting on the fence are realizing thatthe market is turning and that they better buy now beforeprices are too far out of their range.

Oil companies and other large companies continue to

relocate their employees to Houston. Record low interestrates and inventories are producing multiple offer situations.Some selling prices are over $50,000 above asking price.

Buyers wanted to start early to avoid the hassle of multipleoffers and getting outbid. They couldnt start early enough!The competition has been really strong.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic showed strong improvement in April, as our trafficindex increased to 92 from 63 in March. Agents noted thatcorporate relocations, low inventories, and favorableaffordability all contributed to the sharply higher traffic level.

Home prices continued to increase, as our home price indexcame in at 87 from 79 in March.

Inventories and the time to sell both declined in April. As aresult, we would expect prices to show additional improvementin the coming months (declines in each metric are positives forfuture pricing).

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Nov-12 40.0 76.7 42.3 75.0 71.4

Dec-12 50.0 79.4 44.1 82.4 88.2

Jan-13 61.9 83.3 45.2 76.2 87.5

Feb-13 77.8 81.6 50.0 78.9 77.8

Mar-13 62.5 79.2 45.8 92.3 83.3

Apr-13 91.7 86.8 47.4 78.9 89.5

Point Change 29.2 7.7 1.5 (13.4) 6.1

83%

17%0%



79%

32%

5%16%

42%

11%5%

26%

84%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




I l d E i CA L I t i M ti t B t A t


18/55

April 13Slide 18

Inland Empire, CA Low Inventories Motivate Buyers to Act




Buyers are out trying to take advantage of these interestrates. Inventory is still low and that is driving them to acteven sooner.

There is a shortage of inventory, especially in the lower

ranges. Demand is solid in the market. But there still fewerpeople in the move-up market.

Inventory is low and people are finally ready to buy.

We dont have any properties for sale. Good for urgency,traffic, and pricing, but its tough to convert to actual sales.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic exceeded expectations in April, as our traffic indexcame in at 65, down slightly from 71 in March, but still at levelsindicating better-than-expected traffic. Agents credited trafficlevels to low inventories and buyers looking to capitalize onaffordability.

Homes prices showed additional improvement as our priceindex came in at 90, unchanged vs. our index in March.

Prices are likely to continue to improve given declines in bothinventories and the time needed to sell a home.

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Nov-12 58.8 84.4 46.7 86.7 78.1

Dec-12 66.7 78.1 60.0 90.6 80.0

Jan-13 70.8 83.3 45.5 95.8 70.8

Feb-13 63.6 81.8 59.1 85.0 86.4

Mar-13 71.1 89.5 41.7 76.3 77.8

Apr-13 65.0 90.0 50.0 90.0 80.0

Point Change (6.1) 0.5 8.3 13.7 2.2

50%

30%

20%



80%

10%0%

20%

80%

40%

0%10%

60%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




Jackson ille FL B ers Dra n to Affordabilit Concerned abo t Getting Priced O t


19/55

April 13Slide 19

Jacksonville, FL Buyers Drawn to Affordability, Concerned about Getting Priced Out


(4,582 single-family permits in 2012, 23rd largest market in the country)


People with good jobs and good credit cant beat theserates. They understand this and they are moving in to takeadvantage.

Our market has been excellent. Buyers seem to have more

confidence. Low interest rates definitely help. Were seeing more buyers realize that if they wait much

longer home prices will be too far out of their reach.

We have been extremely busy since the beginning of theyear. Lack of inventory is helping urgency and demand, but itmight limit the actual number of sales.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic continued to improve in April, exceeding agentsexpectations again, as our traffic index came in at 69 from 67in March. Agents highlighted that affordability, and the threat ofhigher prices and rates in the future helped drive traffic.

Home prices increased further in April (eighth consecutivemonth), as our home price index came in at 88 from 92 inMarch.

Agents indicated that inventories and the time to sell bothdeclined in April. We view this as a good indication that priceswill continue to rise in the coming months.

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Nov-12 64.3 64.3 35.7 85.7 71.4

Dec-12 56.3 75.0 31.3 62.5 62.5

Jan-13 75.0 75.0 35.7 75.0 62.5

Feb-13 68.8 87.5 43.8 87.5 93.8

Mar-13 66.7 91.7 58.3 83.3 91.7

Apr-13 68.8 87.5 37.5 81.3 78.6

Point Change 2.1 (4.2) (20.8) (2.1) (13.1)

50%

37%

13%



75%

25%

0%

25%

75%

43%

0% 0%

57%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%




Las Vegas NV Investor Demand Remains Strong Builders Capitalizing on Inventory Shortage


20/55

April 13Slide 20

Las Vegas, NV Investor Demand Remains Strong, Builders Capitalizing on Inventory Shortage




Interest rates are still very attractive. New homecommunities are popping up everywhere. Weve also seenthe return of some short sellers whove had time to repairtheir credit.

Some builders are going back to the lottery system toaward lots to buyers. The demand is overwhelming forhomes $350,000 and below. I am getting calls from out ofstate investors weekly.

Investors are very active. Supply is low and demand ishigh.

Our Take:

Traffic exceeded agents expectations again in April, as ourtraffic index improved to 75 from 65 in March. Agents notedthat affordability continues to draw buyers, with additionaldemand coming from prior short sellers who are re-enteringthe market.

Prices saw very broad improvement in April, as our home priceindex improved to 100 from 98 in March.

Inventory fell sharply in April, as did the time needed to sell.We view these both as strong positives for future pricing,especially as demand remains strong.

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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Nov-12 36.7 83.3 46.7 60.0 66.7

Dec-12 63.3 93.3 56.7 66.7 73.3

Jan-13 61.9 97.6 57.1 78.6 78.6

Feb-13 60.9 97.8 65.9 75.0 84.1

Mar-13 65.2 97.9 66.7 77.1 85.4

Apr-13 75.0 100.0 57.5 92.5 95.0

Point Change 9.8 2.1 (9.2) 15.4 9.6

60%

30%

10%



100%

20%

0%0%

45%

10%0%

35%

90%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%100%

120%




Los Angeles CA Confidence Running High but Investors Continue to Outbid Traditional Buyers


21/55

April 13Slide 21

Los Angeles, CA Confidence Running High, but Investors Continue to Outbid Traditional Buyers


(4,921 single-family permits in 2012, 22nd largest market in the country)


There are also a lot of cash buyers out there trying to grabdeals before prices get too out of hand.

Buyers are increasingly confident about the state of thehousing market. They are positive that now is the right time

to buy. Cash buyers still dominate. Traditional buyers routinely get

outbid.

Buyers are coming out of the woodwork. The shortage ofinventory has caused an outrageous number of multipleoffers to be presented.

Our Take:

Our buyer traffic index came in at 67, unchanged from levels inMarch. This reading indicates that traffic exceededexpectations again in April. Agents attributed the traffic levelsto strong demand from cash investors, while multiple offershave become increasingly common.

Home prices increased further in April, as our home priceindex came in at 97 from 98 in March.

Inventories and the time to sell both declined in April. As aresult, we expect pricing to continue to see nice improvementin Los Angeles.

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Nov-12 62.5 88.9 56.3 76.8 71.4

Dec-12 68.0 88.0 57.1 93.5 79.2

Jan-13 66.7 83.9 59.5 86.2 77.6

Feb-13 59.3 94.4 48.0 75.0 75.9

Mar-13 66.7 98.0 52.3 80.0 88.0

Apr-13 66.7 96.6 63.5 70.7 81.0

Point Change 0.0 (1.4) 11.2 (9.3) (7.0)

56%

22%

22%



97%

4% 3%0%

65%

31%

3%

31%

66%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%100%

120%




Miami FL Inventory is Low and Multiple Bids are Common Competition is Fierce


22/55

April 13Slide 22

Miami, FL Inventory is Low and Multiple Bids are Common, Competition is Fierce


(5,048 single-family permits in 2012, 21st largest market in the country)


Buyers are worried they might miss the market. Prices hadalready been going higher, but there were still people whowerent yet sure the market had turned positive.

Some buyers keep getting outbid, but they are patient.

They are willing to wait it out to eventually get a home theywant.

We have no inventory. Buyers are going crazy trying to buywhatever they can as fast as they can.

Investors remain very active. They are responsible for all ofour sales.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic exceeded agents expectations in April, as ourtraffic index came in at 67 from 70 in March. Agents creditedthe healthy traffic to low inventories and resulting urgency, aswell as continued demand from investors.

Prices continued to see broad improvement in April, as ourprice index came in at 92, unchanged from our index in March.

Pricing is likely to continue to improve given declines in bothinventories and the time needed to sell a home. We thinkdecreases in these metrics are each positives for futurepricing.

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Nov-12 50.0 86.2 50.0 85.0 77.6

Dec-12 55.3 88.2 45.9 85.9 69.2

Jan-13 60.3 92.6 50.0 80.0 78.6

Feb-13 57.6 88.2 48.5 89.7 75.0

Mar-13 69.7 92.1 54.5 87.8 82.9

Apr-13 66.7 92.4 40.0 87.9 89.4

Point Change (3.1) 0.3 (14.5) 0.0 6.5

52%

30%

18%



85%

20%

3%15%

80%

15%

0% 0%

82%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%




Minneapolis MN Low Inventories Support Sustained Urgency Buyers Eager to Purchase Homes


23/55

April 13Slide 23

Minneapolis, MN Low Inventories Support Sustained Urgency, Buyers Eager to Purchase Homes




Were seeing multiple offers in areas of high demandbecause inventories are so low.

There is a lack of inventory. There is a multiple offer frenzyon decent, well priced properties.

Everyone wants in before rates go higher. People are feeling more secure about the their jobs and are

willing to step into the market.

People see that weve reached the bottom of the market.They feel better looking at homes now.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic improved and exceeded expectations in April, asour buyer traffic index increased to 60 from 53 in March.Agents noted that low inventories were an important driver oftraffic, with multiple offers on quality inventories commonplace.

Prices improved further in April, as our home price indexincreased to 93 from 81 in March.

Inventories and the time to sell both declined in April. We viewdeclines in each metrics as positive indicators for futurepricing.

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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Nov-12 46.9 63.2 46.9 86.4 74.2

Dec-12 39.5 78.6 55.3 88.1 81.0

Jan-13 57.4 83.3 48.6 84.7 81.9

Feb-13 64.3 87.9 42.3 89.3 84.5

Mar-13 52.9 80.6 47.2 69.4 77.8

Apr-13 60.0 92.9 42.9 78.6 92.9

Point Change 7.1 12.3 (4.4) 9.1 15.1

33%

54%

13%



86%

21%

0%14%

71%

14%0%

7%

86%

0%

20%

40%

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80%

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Nashville TN Local Economy Lower Inventories Help Instill Confidence and Urgency


24/55

April 13Slide 24

Nashville, TN Local Economy, Lower Inventories Help Instill Confidence and Urgency




Investors looking for REOs and short-sales continue todrive better traffic in our area.

Buyers confidence levels are higher. Sales and pricingcontinue to improve.

There is a real shortage of inventory here. Plus interestrates are still at great levels and the local economy hasremained a nice draw for buyers.

Inventory is pretty much down to nothing in a lot of thebetter markets. Were seeing very nice price appreciation inthese areas.

Our Take:

Traffic improved further in April and exceeded expectations, asour buyer traffic index increased to 81 from 75 in March.Agents stressed that lower inventories and the local economyattracted buyers to market in April.

Prices continued to improve in April, as our home price indexincreased to 73 from 71 in March.

Agents indicated that inventories were flat, marking the firsttime levels havent declined since September. However, wewould still expect prices to improve given the reduced time tosell.

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


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Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

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Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Nov-12 50.0 64.3 42.9 64.3 35.7

Dec-12 61.1 50.0 55.6 66.7 66.7

Jan-13 61.1 77.8 68.8 66.7 72.2

Feb-13 83.3 83.3 50.0 70.8 83.3

Mar-13 75.0 70.8 70.8 91.7 83.3

Apr-13 80.8 73.1 65.4 53.8 88.5

Point Change 5.8 2.2 (5.4) (37.8) 5.1

69%

23%

8%



46%

0% 0%

54%69%

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0%

31%

77%

0%

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New York-Northern NJ Confidence in Housing Remains though Job Security Still a Concern for Some


25/55

April 13Slide 25

New York-Northern NJ Confidence in Housing Remains, though Job Security Still a Concern for Some




People want to get in ahead of potential mortgage rateincreases, which has helped traffic; that, along with ourinventory falling half over the past year.

Consumer confidence is better. People want to own

homes, but right now it is a sellers market. Traffic remains strong, but the shortage of inventory has

been a strong challenge. We have people looking, but thereisnt anything for them to buy.

I think buyers are still a bit turned off by the job market.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic slipped in April, but levels still met expectations.Our buyer traffic index came in at 51 vs. 62 in March. Agentsnoted that buyers remained drawn by affordability, while lowinventories continued to act as motivation. However, otherswere said to still be concerned about job security in the region.

Home prices continued to rise in April, as our home price indexcame in at 66 from 69 in March.

Our home listings and time to sell indexes both pointed todeclines in each metric. The lower inventories and the lowertime to sell are both good indications of future pricing power.

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HomePriceIndex


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Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

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Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Nov-12 15.1 39.8 52.6 69.8 29.1

Dec-12 32.6 41.5 54.9 70.2 40.4

Jan-13 45.8 47.9 53.8 69.8 52.1

Feb-13 57.5 59.6 45.5 64.4 62.5

Mar-13 62.3 68.6 48.9 68.9 66.0

Apr-13 51.0 66.3 51.1 64.4 72.1

Point Change (11.3) (2.3) 2.2 (4.4) 6.1

31%

39%

30%



44%

15% 12%

44%

68%

33%

12%17%

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Orlando FL Competition from Investors Pushes Traditional Buyers Out of the Market Traffic Falls


26/55

April 13Slide 26

Orlando, FL Competition from Investors Pushes Traditional Buyers Out of the Market, Traffic Falls




Inventory has fallen too low. The selection isnt good andthis has discouraged potential buyers from even looking.

Buyers arent interested in the market because they eitherdont like whats for sale or the competition is too fierce. The

competition isnt from other owner-occupants either; it iscoming from cash investors and hedge funds.

There are buyers who dont have so much faith in the futureof the economy. They are more comfortable staying on thesidelines.

Our Take:

Traffic fell below expectations in April, as our traffic index camein at 34 from 53 in March. Agents noted that buyers pulledback because of increased competition from investors, andmentioned that the very small selection of inventories did notappeal to buyers.

Home prices continued to move higher in April, as our homeprice index came in at 81 from 82 in March.

Agents indicated that inventories fell further, as did the timeneeded to sell. We view these both as positive indicators forfuture pricing.

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Nov-12 42.3 75.0 57.1 75.0 67.9

Dec-12 35.7 80.0 40.0 86.7 83.3

Jan-13 34.6 73.1 53.8 73.1 69.2

Feb-13 47.1 73.5 47.1 82.4 79.4

Mar-13 52.9 82.4 38.2 67.6 67.6

Apr-13 34.4 81.3 50.0 84.4 75.0

Point Change (18.6) (1.1) 11.8 16.7 7.4

12%

44%

44%



69%

13% 13%

25%

75%

25%

6%13%

63%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%




Philadelphia PA-Southern NJ Confidence Continuing to Improve in April


27/55

April 13Slide 27

Philadelphia, PA Southern NJ Confidence Continuing to Improve in April




Buyer confidence is at levels we havent seen in 7 years.

Most buyers are excited about how low interest rates areand how positive the media has been on housing lately.

Weve seen the release of some pent up demand recently.

It is as if there is a buyer panic underway. They are worriedtheyll lose out if they dont buy now. Theyll do anything tomake sure they get the keys to a house before they missout.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic continued to exceed expectations in April, as ourtraffic index increased to 61 from 57 in March. Agents notedthat buyers were driven to the market by increased confidence,and concerns that they might miss a golden opportunity.

Home prices increased again in April, as our home price indexcame in at 64 from 68 in March.

Inventories were flat in April, although the time to sell declined.With the improvement in demand, we would expect prices tocontinue to improve given the flat inventories and the lowertime to sell.

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BuyerTrafficIndex


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HomePriceIndex


Month

Buyer Traffic

Index

Home Price

Index

Incentive

Index

Home Listings

Index

Time to Sell

Index

Nov-12 33.3 38.1 47.5 68.4 54.8

Dec-12 54.5 47.7 57.9 77.3 63.6

Jan-13 63.9 47.2 70.0 86.1 63.9

Feb-13 63.0 54.3 50.0 77.3 69.6

Mar-13 57.1 67.9 50.0 73.1 88.5

Apr-13 61.1 63.9 50.0 52.9 77.8

Point Change 4.0 (4.0) 0.0 (20.1) (10.7)

33%

56%

11%



33%

14%

0%

61%

71%

44%

6%14%

56%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%





28/55

Portland, OR Buyers Continue to Feel Pressure to Purchase before Missing out on Opportunities


29/55

April 13Slide 29

Portland, OR Buyers Continue to Feel Pressure to Purchase before Missing out on Opportunities




Buyers are reacting positively to the low inventories,especially since the assumption is that interest rates may berising soon.

Buyers have a sense that it is now or never. Solid sales andlow inventory have created this sentiment.

Buyers are more than aware of how low inventories are andsee that investors are still active in the market. They areserious about buying before it is too late.

Our Take:

Buyer traffic remained above agents expectations, as ourtraffic index came in at 68 from 75 in March. Agents voicedbuyers concerns over low inventories and potentially losing outon deals, which helped keep traffic at healthy levels in April.

Home prices continued to improve in April, as our home priceindex came in at 86, unchanged from our index in March.

Inventories and the time to sell both exhibited declines in April.These are both positive indicators for future pricing, and as aresult, we would expect prices to continue to improve fromcurrent levels.

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Credit Suisse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents Results April 2013

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