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CRGAQS:Revised CAMx 2004 Results
Presentation to theGorge Study Technical Team
ByENVIRON International Corporation
May 2, 2007
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Today’s Presentation
• Describe OR/WA emission changes
• Describe November 2004 met changes
• Revised 2004 CAMx simulation results
• Next Steps
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Additional WA Funding
• 2004 and 2018 emission improvements• 2004 November meteorological
improvements• Rerun CAMx
– 2004 Base Case, August and November episodes
– 2018 Future Case, August and November episodes
– 2018 “What-if” scenarios– 2004 and 2018 PSAT runs, both episodes
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OR/WA Emission Changes• Reviewed/changed ammonia emissions:
– All CAFOs increased:• x1.2 for OR, x1.4 for WA
– Three Mile Canyon near Boardman increased x4.3• head count and “flush” operations identified
– Certain fertilizer application types increased• x3.3 for anhydrous and aqueous• x2.7 for nitrogen solution
– Checked monthly fertilizer allocation by state (but not changed)
– No 2018 WRAP ammonia – WRAP used 2002 numbers for 2018
• We used 2002 WRAP outside OR/WA for 2018• We used 2004 OR/WA for 2018
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OR/WA Emission Changes
• Reviewed/changed residential wood combustion:– ODEQ revealed x2 over estimate from surveys– WRAP 2018 RWC indicates x7 growth for OR,
x3 growth for WA, from our 2004 RWC– WRAP emissions contractor (ERG) stated a 4%
growth (population-based)– We reduced 2004 RWC by 50% and grew by
4% for 2018– Monthly profiles differ in 2004 from 2018 (but
not changed)
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OR/WA Emission Changes
• Reviewed wind-blown dust methodology– Found some minor issues, but did not
change given very small component of overall PM
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November Met Changes
• Background– August is performing OK, but November
lacks secondary aerosols• Lack of fog reduces aqueous SO4 production• Low humidity reduces NO3 condensation
• Hypothesis: If we can get the fog right,– Aqueous SO4 production can occur– High humidity will help increase
condensation of ammonium nitrate
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November Met Changes
• Approach1) Gather satellite imagery for the period (provided by Paul)
2) Calculate MM5 average fog water content occurring over the episode -- use as the default water content to fill in the fog “holes”
3) Evaluate imagery against CAMx cloud plots to identify onset of fog and spatial extent – use terrain fields to define valleys and basins where the fog consistently forms and lingers
4) Use results from (2) and (3) to fill in fog in CAMx cloud field
5) Modify CAMx chemistry routine to ensure that relative humidity is 100% for a cloudy grid cell
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August 2004 ResultsSO4. 04aug.run8
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
SO4. 04aug.run10
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
NO3. 04aug.run10
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
NO3. 04aug.run8
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
NH4. 04aug.run8
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
NH4. 04aug.run10
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
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August 2004 ResultsOC. 04aug.run8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
OC. 04aug.run10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
EC. 04aug.run8
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
EC. 04aug.run10
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
Light Scatter. Aug04, Run8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Observed [1/Mm]
Gorge
Light Scatter. 04aug.run10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Observed [1/Mm]
Gorge
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August 2004 ResultsPM25. 04aug.run8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Observed ug/m̂ 3
IMPROVE FRM
PM25. 04aug.run10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Observed ug/m̂ 3
IMPROVE FRM
PM10. 04aug.run8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Observed ug/m̂ 3
IMPROVE
PM10. 04aug.run10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Observed ug/m̂ 3
IMPROVE
Light Extinction. 04aug.run8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Observed [1/Mm]
IMPROVE
Light Extinction. 04aug.run10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Observed [1/Mm]
IMPROVE
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August 2004 Results
Run 8 Run 10 Parameter Fractional
Bias Fractional
Error Fractional
Bias Fractional
Error SO4 -64% 64% -65% 65% NO3 -111% 131% -109% 132% OC 12% 44% 5% 43% EC 4% 33% 1% 33% Primary Fine -77% 77% -81% 81% Light Scattering -16% 34% -16% 32% Light Extinction -74% 74% -45% 45%
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August 2004 ResultsSauvie Island Bscat
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
8/10
8/11
8/12
8/13
8/14
8/15
8/16
8/17
8/18
8/19
8/20
8/21
8/22
Bsc
at [
1/M
m]
Bscat, observed Bscat,04aug.run10 Bscat, 04aug.run8
Mt Zion Bscat
0
20
40
60
80
100
8/10
8/11
8/12
8/13
8/14
8/15
8/16
8/17
8/18
8/19
8/20
8/21
8/22
Bsc
at [
1/M
m]
Bscat, observed Bscat,04aug.run10 Bscat, 04aug.run8
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August 2004 ResultsBonneville Bscat
01020304050607080
8/10
8/11
8/12
8/13
8/14
8/15
8/16
8/17
8/18
8/19
8/20
8/21
8/22
Bsc
at [
1/M
m]
Bscat, observed Bscat,04aug.run10 Bscat, 04aug.run8
Wishram Bscat
0102030405060708090
8/10
8/11
8/12
8/13
8/14
8/15
8/16
8/17
8/18
8/19
8/20
8/21
8/22
Bsc
at [
1/M
m]
Bscat, observed Bscat,04aug.run10 Bscat, 04aug.run8
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August 2004 Results
Extinction Components at Mt Zion [1/Mm]. 04Nov.run10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0408
10
0408
11
0408
12
0408
13
0408
14
0408
15
0408
16
0408
17
0408
18
0408
19
0408
20
0408
21
(NH4)2SO4 (NH4)NO3 OC EC
FINE COARSE NA+PCL Bext, Observed
Extinction Components at Wishram [1/Mm]. 04Aug.run10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0408
10
0408
11
0408
12
0408
13
0408
14
0408
15
0408
16
0408
17
0408
18
0408
19
0408
20
0408
21
(NH4)2SO4 (NH4)NO3 OC EC
FINE COARSE NA+PCL Bext, observed
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November 2004 ResultsSO4. 04nov.run7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
NO3. 04nov.run7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
NH4. 04nov.run7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
SO4. 04nov.run10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
NO3. 04nov.run10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
NH4. 04nov.run10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
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November 2004 ResultsOC. 04nov.run7
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 10 20 30 40 50
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
EC. 04nov.run7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
Light Scattering. 04nov.run7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Observed [1/Mm]
Gorge
OC. 04nov.run10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 10 20 30 40 50
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
EC. 04nov.run10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 2 4 6 8
Observed [ug/m̂ 3]
Gorge IMPROVE STN
Light Scattering. 04nov.run10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Observed [1/Mm]
Gorge
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November 2004 ResultsPM25. 04nov.run7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Observed ug/m̂ 3
IMPROVE FRM
PM10. 04nov.run7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Observed ug/m̂ 3
IMPROVE
Light Extinction. 04nov.run7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Observed [1/Mm]
IMPROVE
PM25. 04nov.run10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Observed ug/m̂ 3
IMPROVE FRM
PM10. 04nov.run10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Observed ug/m̂ 3
IMPROVE
Light Extinction. 04nov.run10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Observed [1/Mm]
IMPROVE
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November 2004 Results
Run 8 Run 10 Parameter Fractional
Bias Fractional
Error Fractional
Bias Fractional
Error SO4 -45% 66% 14% 59% NO3 18% 108% 30% 91% OC 15% 56% -20% 53% EC 61% 75% 36% 57% Primary Fine Light Scattering Light Extinction
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November 2004 ResultsSauvie Island Light Scattering
050
100150200250300350400450
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
Bsc
at [
1/M
m]
Bscat, observed Bscat, 04nov.run10 Bscat, 04nov.run7
Mt Zion Light Scattering
0
100
200
300
400
500
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
Bsc
at [
1/M
m]
Bscat, observed Bscat, 04nov.run10 Bscat, 04nov.run7
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November 2004 ResultsBonneville Light Scattering
020406080
100120140160180
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
Bsc
at [
1/M
m]
Bscat, observed Bscat, 04nov.run10 Bscat, 04nov.run7
Wishram Light Scattering
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
Bsc
at [
1/M
m]
Bscat, observed Bscat, 04nov.run10 Bscat, 04nov.run7
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November 2004 Results
Extinction Components at Mt Zion [1/Mm]. 04Nov.run7
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0411
04
0411
05
0411
06
0411
07
0411
08
0411
09
0411
10
0411
11
0411
12
0411
13
0411
14
0411
15
0411
16
0411
17
(NH4)2SO4 (NH4)NO3 OC EC
FINE COARSE NA+PCL Bext, Observed
Extinction Components at Mt Zion [1/Mm]. 04Nov.run10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0411
04
0411
05
0411
06
0411
07
0411
08
0411
09
0411
10
0411
11
0411
12
0411
13
0411
14
0411
15
0411
16
0411
17
(NH4)2SO4 (NH4)NO3 OC EC
FINE COARSE NA+PCL Bext, Observed
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November 2004 Results
Extinction Components at Wishram [1/Mm]. 04Nov.run7
050
100150200250300350400450500
0411
04
0411
05
0411
06
0411
07
0411
08
0411
09
0411
10
0411
11
0411
12
0411
13
0411
14
0411
15
0411
16
0411
17
(NH4)2SO4 (NH4)NO3 OC EC
FINE COARSE NA+PCL Bext, observed
Extinction Components at Wishram [1/Mm]. 04Nov.run10
050
100150200250300350400450500
0411
04
0411
05
0411
06
0411
07
0411
08
0411
09
0411
10
0411
11
0411
12
0411
13
0411
14
0411
15
0411
16
0411
17
(NH4)2SO4 (NH4)NO3 OC EC
FINE COARSE NA+PCL Bext, observed
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Next Steps
• 2018 runs are “in the oven”
• 2018 “what-if” scenarios are about to start
• 2004/18 PSAT runs will start after these are completed
• Complete technical report