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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Duncan Price, Director
Shire Hall 19th December 2011
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 1
Background
• DECC study of renewable energy potential in the East of England
• CRIF work looks in more detail at Cambridegshire
• Moving beyond technical potential to economic and deployment
considerations
• Consideration of three primary delivery pathways
• Forms part of the evidence base for public policy formation
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbon objectives
2
What is Cambridgeshire's potential?
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Cambridgeshire is progressing well
3
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Modelling renewable energy deployment potential
4
Inputs Scenario 1 (low)
Scenario 2 (medium)
Scenario 3 (high)
Scenario 4 (high without wind)
Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6%
Energy price [1]
DECC - 'low' energy prices
DECC - 'high' energy prices
DECC - 'high high' energy prices
DECC - 'high high' energy prices
Financial incentives (FIT/RHI)
lower than current tariff rates current rates
current rates (FIT/ RHI designed to give fixed return & will adjust to energy prices)
current rates (FIT/ RHI designed to give fixed return & will adjust to energy prices)
Project deployment rate (wind/biomass/EfW) 8% 15% 30%
30% (0% for wind)
Green policy support (for building integrated technologies) Low Medium High High
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Deployment options for renewable energy
5
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Renewable electricity potential is very large
6
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Renewable heat constitutes the greater challenge
7
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
S. Cambs and Hunts have largest resource
8
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Substantial infrastructure is needed
Number of installations associated with delivery of each scenario
9
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Significant investment opportunity
Investment potential for each scenario in £millions
10
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Significant investment opportunity
Investment potential for each scenario in £millions
11
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Energy efficiency and renewable energy can
close the carbon ‘gap’
12
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Carbon prices are projected to rise
13
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 14
Conclusions: deployment potential
• Cambridgeshire has experience of delivering renewable energy
• There needs to be more – solar, biomass, heat pumps, wind
• All technologies are needed – heat and electricity
• Somewhere between medium & high scenarios delivers UK legal
renewable energy and carbon targets by 2031
• Significant investment potential – up to £6.1 billion for high scenario
• Local jobs, affordable energy, hub of expertise
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 15
Thanks
Duncan Price
DirectorCamco
t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150
m: +44 (0)7769 692 610
172 Tottenham Court Road London
W1T 7NS United Kingdom
www.camcoglobal.com
Renewable energy delivery pathways
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 16
There are three delivery pathways
Community Public Sector Commercial
16
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 17
What is the potential for each pathway?
17
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Public sector Community Commercial
De
plo
ym
en
t p
ote
nti
al
(GW
h)
Deployment potential by pathway
Wind >=6 turbines
Wind <=5 turbines
Biomass
ASHP
GSHP
SWH
PV
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 18
Community pathway
• PV
• 145MWp, 1,150,000m² of panels
• 460 non-residential buildings and 30,400
houses (14%)
• £640m capex, £150m NPV
• Solar water heating
• 42,600m² of panels on 8,500 houses (4%)
• £50m capex, £20m NPV
18
Deployment potential
• Heat pumps
• 43,000 or 15% of houses
• £140m capex, £75m NPV
• Wind
• 75MW or 30 turbines
• £120m capex, £8m NPV
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 19
Case study: community
Gamlingay Eco Hub and Wind Turbine (planned)
• Community building owned by Parish Council with community input; funding from Public Works Loan Board or Community Builders fund
• Income from FiT & energy export; reduced energy bills; new community centre
• Standalone wind turbine proposed, owned by community group; entirely private investment from residents and businesses
• 10% net income to community fund for first 15 years of FiT estimated at £200,000
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 20
Community pathway roadmap
20
Conditions precedent
•strong incentive to invest in renewable energy
•access to a range of funding sources
•maximising learning from leading practice
•managing energy projects effectively
•planning support
Roadmap
Community
Share information,
establish funding
models,
demonstrate
approaches
Establish
community-wide
delivery vehicles
and de-risking
mechanisms
Mainstream
partnerships
between
community and
commercial
developers
Establish long term
community
ownership of local
infrastructure
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 21
Public sector pathway
• PV
• 39MWp, 300,00m² of panels
• 180 non-residential buildings and 7,500
houses (18%)
• £170m capex, £40m NPV
• Solar water heating
• 8,400m² of panels on 1,700 houses (4%)
• £10m capex, £4m NPV
• Biomass
• 14 installations of 1.5MW
21
• Heat pumps
• 8,100 or 20% of houses
• £40m capex, £23m NPV
• Wind
• 27MW or 11 turbines
• £44m capex, £3m NPV
Deployment potential
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 22
Case study: public sector
Decarbonising Cambridge / Carbon Management, Cambridge City
• Decarbonising Cambridge Study – forms part of evidence base for RE planning policies
• Assessed district heating, biomass, energy from waste, wind, pyrolysis, gasification and anaerobic digestion
• Carbon Trust’s Public Sector Carbon Management Plan Programme participation -to cut the Council’s carbon emissions and make ongoing cost savings
• Projects form the basis of the CM plan e.g. upgrading boilers, replacing inefficient light fittings, energy awareness campaigns – also renewable energy projects e.g. Renewable Heat Incentive projects
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Case study: public sector
23
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 24
Public sector pathway roadmap
24
Conditions precedent
•Maximised value of public sector hard assets
•Maximised impact of soft assets
•Facilitating and convening across all sectors
Roadmap
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 25
Commercial pathway
• PV
• 160MWp, 1,300,000m² of panels
• 3,200 non-residential buildings
• £720m capex, £165m NPV
• Solar water heating
• 8,300m² of panels on 1,700 or 20% of
buildings
• £9m capex, £4m NPV
• Biomass
• 14 installations of 1.5MW
25
• Heat pumps
• 200 or 3% of buildings
• £75m capex, £43m NPV
• Wind
• For wind parks ≤5 turbines, 28MW or 11
turbines
• For wind parks ≥6 turbines, 375MW or 150
turbines
• Total capex £660m, £45m NPV
Deployment potential
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 26
Case study: commercial/community partnership
Coldham Estate, Fenland
• Standalone turbines
• Private ownership
• Savings: 38.5 GWh/year - 9,000 UK homes36,000 tonnes CO2
• Community benefits: Revenue under Section 106 agreement for local projects and regeneration; Fund for education
• Community input: The Co-operative Group worked closely with local community during planning and site construction
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 27
Commercial pathway roadmap
27
Conditions precedent
•Strong and stable policy environment
•Clearly identified investment opportunities
•Public sector facilitation
Roadmap
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 28
Conclusions
• The economic prize is £3-6bn investment in Cambridgeshire
• Deployment potential is spread across three pathways
• Conditions precedent must be met
• There are good practice examples to follow
• The role of the public sector is key:
Leadership
Policy support
Project development through own assets
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 29
Thanks
Duncan Price
DirectorCamco
t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150
m: +44 (0)7769 692 610
172 Tottenham Court Road London
W1T 7NS United Kingdom
www.camcoglobal.com