Crime Science

Marianne Junger

[Cla09] R. V. Clarke. Crime science. In E. McLaughlin and T. Newburn, editors, Handbook of Criminal Theory, pages 271-283. Sage, London, 2009. http://www.sagepub.com/books/Book228876

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Contents

Origins of crime Theories of Crime Science Situational Crime Prevention

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Origins of crime

Two essential and different factors

1. Person factors (criminality)

2. Situations (crime)

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Person factors

Crime is ‘natural behaviour’

Everybody has the potential Some more than others…

How can we know? Indirect evidence:

– observe animals– observe babies

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Physical Aggression of Toddlers

Dutch Toddlers (17 months), in % Sometimes Often Sum

Take things 65,8 20,5 86,3

Pulls others 56,4 6 62,4

Pushes to get what he wants 45,3 10,3 55,6

Hits others 42,7 3,4 46,1

Start fights 24,8 1,7 26,5

Threatens others 22,2 3,4 25,6

Bites 14,5 3,4 17,9

Kicks 2,6 0 2,6

Sum 94

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[Ake07] C. van Aken, M. Junger, M. Verhoeven, M. A. G. van Aken, and M. Dekovic. Externalizing behaviors and minor unintentional injuries in toddlers: Common risk factors? Journal of Pediatric Psychology, 32(2):230-244, Mar 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jpepsy/jsj118

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Malleability of behaviour is limited

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[Hec06] J. J. Heckman. Skill formation and the economics of investing in disadvantaged children. Science, 312(5782):1900-1902, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/428598a

Theories of crime science

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[Cla09] R. V. Clarke. Crime science. In E. McLaughlin and T. Newburn, editors, Handbook of Criminal Theory, pages 271-283. Sage, London, 2009. http://www.sagepub.com/books/Book228876

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Crime science- summary

Incident oriented Purpose: understand the modus operandi of

crime Goal: prevention Basis: Rational choice, Opportunity theory &

Routine Activities Means: Situational crime prevention Practice: Measure effectiveness and

efficiency

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Theoretical foundation

Routine Activity Approach (RAT)» crime occurs when a potential offender meets with a

suitable target in the absence of a capable guardian.

Crime Pattern theory» crime is concentrated at particular places (hot spots),

targets the same victims repeatedly, (repeat victimisation), and selects hot products.

Rational choice perspective» criminals make a bounded rational choice judging

risks and benefits.

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Cri

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Rational choice perspective

Criminality is goal oriented behaviour Based on a rational decision Crime specific Crime scripts In sociology, psychology, economy, biology,

public health etc

[Cor08] D. B. Cornish and R. V. Clarke. The rational choice perspective. In R. Wortley and L. Mazerolle, editors, Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis, pages 21-47. Willan Publishing, Uffculme, UK, 2008. http://www.willanpublishing.co.uk/cgi-bin/indexer?product=9781843922803

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RAT - Opportunity theory

Crime is the outcome of the interaction between dispositions and situations

Crime is the product of choice Crime specific focus essential for effective

prevention Crime is heavily concentrated Crime can be reduced by environmental

changes

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[Fel98] M. Felson and R. V. Clarke. Opportunity makes the thief: Practical theory for crime prevention. Police Research Series Paper 98, Home Office, Policing and Reducing Crime Unit, London, 1998. http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/prgpdfs/fprs98.pdf

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Wealth paradox

Wealth presents opportunity» More to steal in houses» Less surveillance

More wealth hence more crime

[Coh79] L. E. Cohen and M. Felson. Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, 44(4):588-608, Aug 1979. http://www.jstor.org/pss/2094589

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Crime triangle

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Situational approach

Used in many disciplines/fields» Economy» Social psychology, e.g., marketing» Traffic » Public health

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Opportunity correlates

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[Pea04] H. Pearson. Public health: The demon drink. Nature, 428:598-600, Apr 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/428598a

Situational crime prevention

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[Cla08] R. V. Clarke. Situational crime prevention. In R. Wortley and L. Mazerolle, editors, Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis, pages 178-194. Willan Publishing, London, Jun 2008. http://www.routledge.com/9781843922803

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Situational crime prevention

Based on the theories of Crime Science A standard methodology based on

experiments and action research. A set of opportunity-reducing techniques. A body of evaluated practice including

studies of displacement.

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Experiments and action Research

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2,3

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1. collection of data about the nature of problem2. analysis of the situational conditions3. systematic study of means of blocking opportunities

4. implementation of the most promising means5. monitoring of results and dissemination of experience.

[Lay04] G. Laycock. The UK car theft index: An example of government leverage. In Understanding and Preventing Car Theft, Crime Prevention Studies 17, pages 25-44. Criminal Justice Press, Monsey, New York, 2004

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Opportunity reducing techniques

Increase effort» Time, skills

Increase risks» Of getting caught, failure, loosing resources

Reduce rewards» So that the offender has less benefits after the crime

Reduce provocation» So that the offender is less tempted to start

Remove excuses» So that the offender cannot justify the crime

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Practical examples

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Increase effort: alley gating

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[Bow04a] K. J. Bowers, S. D. Johnson, and A. F. G. Hirschfield. Closing off opportunities for crime: An evaluation of Alley-Gating. European J. on Criminal Policy and Research, 10(4):285-308, Sep 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10610-005-5502-0

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Increase risks: surveillance

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Reduce rewards: RFID tags

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Reduce provocations: Flyers

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Order Disorder: graffiti

1. Alley, flyer on bicycle 33% 69%

2. No trespassing 27% 82%

3. Supermarket 30% 58%

4. Littering/noise 52% 80%

5. Stealing Euro : graffiti, no litter on ground

13%

27%

6. Stealing Euro 5: no graffiti, litter on ground

25%

[Kei08] K. Keizer, S. Lindenberg, and L. Steg. The spreading of disorder. Science, 322(5908):1681-1685, Dec 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1161405

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Remove excuses: Eyes

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Pounds paid perlitre of milk consumedas a function ofweek and image type.

[Bat06] M. Bateson, D. Nettle, and G. Roberts. Cues of being watched enhance cooperation in a real-world setting. Biology Letters, 2(3):412-414, Sep 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2006.0509

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Displacement?

Most important issue! Detoxification of gas in UK households

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[Cla88b] R. V. Clarke and P. Mayhew. The British gas suicide story and its criminological implications. Crime and Justice, 10:79-116, 1988. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1147403

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Displacement?

Detoxification of gas in UK households

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[Cla88b] R. V. Clarke and P. Mayhew. The British gas suicide story and its criminological implications. Crime and Justice, 10:79-116, 1988. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1147403

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1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

Year

Su

icid

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All Methods

By Gas

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Diffusion of benefits

Diffusion of benefits: Examples

» Alley gating…» Tagging of expensive electronic products in shops

Meta-analysis*» 25% diffusion of benefits, » 50% nothing at all» 25% displacement – never complete

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[Gue09] R. T. Guerette and K. J. Bowers. Assessing the extent of crime displacement and diffusion of benefits: a review of situational crime prevention evaluations. Criminology, 47(4):1331-1368, Nov 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2009.00177.x.

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Discussion

This was ‘normal’ crime…. See for a large collection of examples

http://www.popcenter.org/ What about cyber opportunities?

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Conclusions

Origins of crime: interaction “person by situation”

Importance of situations : wealth, alcohol Theories of crime science: RA, RCM,

opportunities» A standard methodology: experiments/policies.» A set of opportunity-reducing techniques: this helps!» A body of evaluated practice including studies of

displacement.

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