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    CRISILCRBCustomised Research BulletinMay - June 2014

    Real Estate

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    About CRISIL Limited

    About CRISIL Research

    CRISIL Privacy

    Disclaimer

    CRISIL is a global analytical company providing ratings, research, and risk and policy advisory services. We are India's

    leading ratings agency. We are also the foremost provider of high-end research to the world's largest banks and leading

    corporations.

    CRISIL Research is India's largest independent and integrated research house. We provide insights, opinions, and analysis

    on the Indian economy, industries, capital markets and companies. We are India's most credible provider of economy and

    industry research. Our industry research covers 70 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. Our analysis is

    supported by inputs from our network of more than 4,500 primary sources, including industry experts, industry associations,

    and trade channels. We play a key role in India's fixed income markets. We are India's largest provider of valuations of fixed

    income securities, serving the mutual fund, insurance, and banking industries. We are the sole provider of debt and hybrid

    indices to India's mutual fund and life insurance industries. We pioneered independent equity research in India, and are today

    India's largest independent equity research house. Our defining trait is the ability to convert information and data into expertjudgements and forecasts with complete objectivity. We leverage our deep understanding of the macro economy and our

    extensive sector coverage to provide unique insights on micro-macro and cross-sectoral linkages. We deliver our research

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    CRISIL respects your privacy. We use your contact information, such as your name, address, and email id, to fulfil your request

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    Last updated: May, 2013

    CRISIL Research, a division of CRISIL Limited (CRISIL), has taken due care and caution in preparing this Report based on the information

    obtained by CRISIL from sources which it considers reliable (Data). However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or

    completeness of the Data / Report and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of Data / Report.

    This Report is not a recommendation to invest / disinvest in any company covered in the Report. CRISIL especially states that it has no

    financial liability whatsoever to the subscribers / users / transmitters / distributors of this Report. CRISIL Research operates independently of,

    and does not have access to information obtained by CRISILs Ratings Division / CRISIL Risk and Infrastructure Solutions Limited (CRIS),

    which may, in their regular operations, obtain information of a confidential nature. The views expressed in this Report are that of CRISIL

    Research and not of CRISILs Ratings Division / CRIS. No part of this Report may be published / reproduced in any form without CRISILs

    prior written approval.

    CRISILCRBCustomised Research Bulletin

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    CRISIL Industry Research covers 70 industries

    Key Offerings

    Automotive

    Commodities

    Hotels & Hospitals

    Infrastructure

    Logistics

    Oil & Gas

    Power

    Real Estate

    & Others

    Key Verticals

    Industry

    Company

    Project

    Feasibility/Pre-feasibilityStudies

    Techno-economicviability studies (TEV)

    Project Vetting

    Locationidentification/assessment

    Sensitivity Analysis

    CompetitiveBenchmarking

    Valuation studies

    Evaluation of variousbusiness models

    Customised CreditReports

    Vendor Assessment

    Market Sizing

    Demand/Supply GapAnalysis

    Input/Commodity PriceForecasting

    Impact Analysis ofEconomic/RegulatoryVariables

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    CRISILCRBCustomised Research Bulletin

    CRISIL Customised Research

    CRISIL Research provides research inputs and conclusions to supportyour decisions while

    CRISIL Research provides you the following inputs to help youidentify/assess business opportunities or review business risks

    CRISIL Research, the leading independent and credible provider of economic, sectoral andcompany research in India, utilises its proprietary information networks, database andmethodologies to provide you customised research inputs and conclusions for businessplanning, monitoring and decision-making.

    Lending to an entity

    Taking a stake in an entity

    Transacting/partnering with an entity

    Feasibility of entry into a new business segment

    Feasibility of capacity expansion

    Choice of location, fuel, other inputs

    Choice of markets, targeted market share

    Product mix choices

    Production/sales planning

    Identification/assessment of new business themes/areas

    Building futuristic scenarios and discontinuity analysis over the long term

    Assessing the impact of changes in economic variables, commodity prices on yourbusiness

    Field-based information on variables and tracking indicators for ongoing review ofopportunities/risks in your sectors of interest

    Assessment of credit/investment quality of your portfolio

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    With a new government assuming power at the Centre, riding on a

    decisive electoral mandate, the portents for Indias economy are

    certainly positive. And the real estate sector is not an exception. After

    a sustained economic slowdown, that kept real estate demand and

    capital values subdued for last 4-5 quarters, the expectation is that

    the new governments policies to address inflation, job creation and

    kickstart the investment cycle will provide a boost to growth leading

    to a gradual recovery in the sector.

    Creating jobs will particularly provide a shot in the arm to a sagging

    real estate sectors fortunes, as more jobs will mean higher

    disposable incomes. Moreover, any amendments and greater clarity

    on the Land Acquisition Act may make it easier for developers to

    acquire land. However, as the impact of the new policies is unlikely to

    be instantaneous, the revival in demand will be gradual. Moreover,

    interest rates are expected to remain firm in the near term, which

    hints that growth in demand is expected to improve at a measured

    pace. As real estate demand improves, capital values in the 10 major

    cities are also likely to increase albeit marginally. In this issue, wehave also examined unfolding trends in related sectors such as

    hotels, retail and hospitals.

    In 2013, new apartment sales declined across the top 10 cities we

    track, barring IT/ITeS hubs like Bengaluru and Pune. Worsening

    demand, amid huge unsold inventories, also pulled down capital

    values across most cities in the last 8-10 months. However, stable

    demand helped Pune and Bengaluru to ward off a fall in capital

    values. We expect real estate demand to revive and grow by 5-6 per

    cent in 2015. While significant pent-up demand is likely to drive up

    real estate absorption by 6-7 per cent in Mumbai, demand in the

    NCR, Chennai, Bangalore and Pune is likely to grow by around 5 per

    cent.

    Foreword

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    2

    CRISILCRBCustomised Research Bulletin

    Foreword

    The retailing sector too will see green shoots of a recovery in 2014-15.After having slumped to decadal lows, we expect growth in the Indian

    organized retail industry to improve to 13-14 per cent during the year.

    Retailers margins will also improve further by 50-100 basis points, as the

    effect of cost rationalization measures initiated in 2013-14 continues.

    Organized retail penetration is also likely to reach 10 per cent by 2018-19

    from 7.9 per cent in 2013-14.

    For hotels too, a marginal recovery is in sight, but it will be visible only

    from 2015-16. With room supply growing faster than demand in 2014-15,

    both occupancy rates (ORs) and average room rates (ARRs) will decline.

    As the situation reverses starting 2015-16, ORs will recover. However,

    rising competition will keep ARRs rangebound and consequently

    revenues per available room (RevPARs) are expected to remain flat over

    the next 3-4 years at Rs 4,500.

    For the healthcare industry, where a lack of infrastructure (low beds to

    population ratio) is a major issue, the game changer will be a rise in

    private investments, especially for in-patient department (IPD)

    treatments. Among daycare models that we have analysed, the eye care

    delivery market will be worth keeping an eye on, given the attractive

    returns that it offers.

    Prasad Koparkar

    Senior Director

    Industry & Customised Research

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    3

    Opinion

    Segment-wise review of the Indian real estate market 01

    Interview

    Binaifer F. Jehani, Director - CRISIL Research 03

    Economic Overview June 2014 05

    Industry Overview

    Healthcare delivery 06Hotels 09

    Organised Retail 13

    Independent Equity Research Report

    Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd, June 05, 2014 15

    Customised Research Services

    Real Estate 16

    Media Coverage 17

    Contents

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    CRISILCRBCustomised Research Bulletin

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    1

    1. Residential Real EstateDemand remained tepid in 2013 as well

    In 2013, high interest rates and sticky inflation

    continued to exert pressure on demand across the 10

    major cities (Mumbai, NCR, Bengaluru, Kolkata,

    Chennai, Hyderabad, Pune, Ahmedabad, Chandigarh

    and Kochi) as potential buyers remained in a wait-and-

    watch mode. Consequently, new home bookings

    declined year-on-year across all cities barring Pune and

    Bengaluru. Average capital values too grew by a tepid4-5 per cent y-o-y, mainly led by a rise in the first half.

    In the latter half of the year, capital values remained

    stable or declined marginally over the first half.

    Capital value index (for 10 major cities)

    Note: Indexed to 2005; E- Estimated

    Source: CRISIL Research

    Mumbai, NCR to house half of estimated supply

    Of the 2.2 billion sq ft of supply planned in the 10 cities,

    CRISIL Research expects only 54 per cent (1.2 billion

    sq ft) to come up by 2016. Mumbai and NCR alone are

    expected to account for 49 per cent of the estimated

    supply.

    Planned v/s CRISIL Research's estimated supply

    (2014-16)

    Source: CRISIL Research

    2. Commercial office space

    Rentals in most micromarkets stay below 2008peaks

    During the global economic slowdown in 2008-09,

    demand for commercial office space, especially fromthe IT/ITeS and BFSI sectors, plummeted causing

    average lease rentals to fall by 25-30 per cent between

    the first half of 2008 and the second half of 2009. In

    subsequent years, average lease rentals in the 10

    major cities have moved sideward, barring a few micro-

    markets which have recorded a rise or a fall. Demand

    gained momentum briefly in the first half of 2011, but

    high vacancies restricted a sharp rise in lease rentals.

    Weak demand has also slowed down execution of

    many projects. Currently, lease rentals in almost 90 per

    cent of micromarkets in the 10 major cities are 25-30

    per cent below peak levels seen in the first half of 2008.

    100120140160180200

    220240260280300

    2005

    2006

    2007

    H1

    2008

    H2

    2008

    H1

    2009

    H2

    2009

    H1

    2010

    H2

    2010

    H1

    2011

    H2

    2011

    H1

    2012

    H2

    2012

    H1

    2013

    H2

    2013

    H1

    2014

    E

    Capital Value Index

    18

    39

    63

    63

    80

    94

    124

    128

    161

    419

    28

    74

    88

    109

    127

    155

    184

    188

    322

    934

    Kochi

    Chandigarh Tricity

    Ahmedabad

    Kolkata

    Chennai

    Hyderabad

    Bengaluru

    Pune

    Mumbai - MMR

    NCR

    Planned Supply (mn sq ft.)

    CRISIL Research's Estimated Supply (2014-16) (mn sq ft.)

    Opinion Segment-wise review of the Indian realestate market

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    CRISILCRBCustomised Research Bulletin

    Lease rental index (for commercial office spaces in

    10 major cities)

    *Excludes Ahmedabad since transactions happen on outright

    basis

    Note: Indexed to 2005; E- Estimated

    Source: CRISIL Research

    Only 31 per cent of the total planned supply tomaterialise by 2016; oversupply to persist

    Of the total 389 million sq ft of office space planned in

    the 10 major cities, CRISIL Research expects only 121

    million sq ft to metarialise during 2014 to 2016. Of this,

    NCR, Bengaluru and Pune will together account for 61

    per cent. However, there is a clear evidence of

    oversupply as demand will amount to only 53 million sq

    ft during the period.

    Planned v/s CRISIL Research's estimated supply

    (2014-16)

    Source: CRISIL Research

    3. Retail real estate

    Vacancy levels continue to stunt rise in rentals

    Post the 2008-09 slowdown, demand for retail real

    estate space was weighed down by the prevailing

    oversupply. Since the first half of 2010, lease rentals in

    the 10 major cities have also remained flat owing to the

    vacancies, failing to breach peak levels seen in the first

    half of 2008.

    Lease rental index (for retail spaces in 10 major

    cities)

    Note: Indexed to 2005; E- Estimated

    Source: CRISIL Research

    NCR to see maximum additions in mall spaceduring 2014 to 2016

    Of the total 70 million sq ft of planned retail real estate

    space, CRISIL Research only 27 million sq ft to come

    up during 2014 to 2016. In other terms, about 90 malls

    out of the total planned 168 malls are likely to be

    operational by 2016, of which 39 malls are expected to

    be located in the NCR.

    100110120130140150160170180

    190

    2005

    2006

    2007

    H12008

    H22008

    H12009

    H22009

    H12010

    H22010

    H12011

    H22011

    H12012

    H22012

    H12013

    H22013

    H12014E

    Lease Rental Index

    3

    2

    3

    8

    9

    6

    16

    20

    18

    35

    7

    10

    10

    21

    31

    39

    53

    64

    68

    86

    Chandigarh Tricity

    Kochi

    Ahmedabad

    Chennai

    Kolkata

    Hyderabad

    Mumbai - MMR

    Pune

    Bengaluru

    NCR

    Planned supply (mn sq ft.)

    CRISIL Research expected supply (2014-16) (mn sq ft.)

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    220

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008H1

    2008H2

    H12009

    H22009

    H12010

    H22010

    H12011

    H22011

    H12012

    H22012

    H12013

    H22013

    H12014E

    Lease Rental Index

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    3

    Binaifer F. Jehani, Director, CRISIL Research, Binaiferleads the research function on the real estate sector at

    CRISIL Research. She is responsible for overseeing a

    large team of analysts, offering comprehensive

    research coverage on real estate, spanning residential,

    commercial and retail space. Her areas of expertise

    also comprise healthcare delivery, hospitality and

    housing finance.

    In addition, Binaifer manages customised assignments,which involve gauging the feasibility, underlying market

    potential, etc of prospective business models for

    developers, private equity firms, investment bankers

    and banks. Research findings of such bespoke

    assignments empower these players to make informed

    and effective investment decisions.

    Binaifer joined CRISIL in 2004. During the course of her

    eight-year stint, she has successfully handled several

    projects, involving estimation of market and financial

    feasibility. These projects have driven critical business

    activities in areas of expansion, capacity building, etc.

    She has been an active participant at real estate

    forums, where she proffered valuable insights and

    opinions on vital sectoral issues.

    In 2008, Binaifer pioneered the product called City

    Reality, which determined underlying potential in the

    top ten cities of India. Further, in 2011, she was

    instrumental in conceptualising the Reality Next report,

    covering the newly emerging cities, by going beyond

    the conventional top ten Indian cities.

    Binaifer is a Qualified Chartered Accountant and holds

    a Post Graduate Diploma in Business Administration

    with specialisation in finance from Symbiosis Institute of

    Business Management in Pune..

    Which segment within the real estate industry islikely to grow faster in the next 2 years?

    With a new government taking power at the Centre,

    things should start looking up for the real estate industry

    and the residential segment in particular. However, a

    recovery in demand will be gradual as prices remain

    unaffordable. Over the past 8-10 months, tepid demand

    had in fact pulled down capital values by 3-4 per cent

    across most of the 10 major cities. Buyers maintained a

    wait-and-watch mode given the political and economic

    uncertainties. Therefore, capital values are likely to rise

    again only in 2015, and only by 2-4 per cent y-o-y,

    across the major cities.

    In the commercial real estate market, high vacancies

    are expected to restrict a rise in lease rentals in the

    near term, despite fewer project launches. However,rentals will also not fall from current levels as we

    believe that they have already bottomed out. CRISIL

    Research, therefore, expects commercial office space

    rentals to remain stable until 2015.

    Demand in which of the 10 major cities is expectedto outgrow the rest in the near term?

    Pune and Bengaluru. Housing demand in both cities will

    by far be driven by a growing IT/ITeS industry. The

    InterviewBinaifer F. Jehani

    Director, CRISIL Research

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    4

    CRISILCRBCustomised Research Bulletin

    rising preference for mid-range apartments has helped

    these cities weather an economic slowdown. Steady

    demand will drive up capital values in these markets by

    2-4 per cent between 2014 and 2015. Moreover, both

    cities are well-connected to peripheral areas, which

    house bulk of upcoming supply. The development of

    key infrastructure projects like the Metro Rail and the

    ring road is also expected to bolster demand in these

    cities.

    Which are the micromarkets which will seemaximum appreciation in capital values?

    In the long term, certain micromarkets in large cities willdefinitely outperform others. For instance, in Mumbai,

    capital values in Chembur will rise sharply as various

    infrastructure projectssuch as the Monorail and Metro

    rail - improve connectivity. In Pune, prices in

    micromarkets like Kharadi and Chakan will also surge

    aided by infrastructure projects. In Bangalore, strong

    demand from the IT/ITeS sector, will drive up capital

    values in Hebbal and Whitefield.

    How is the retail industry expected to grow in thenear term and how will this benefit demand for retailreal estate space?

    We expect that a revival in consumer sentiments is key

    to the retail industrysgrowth and by extension, demand

    for retail real estate space. Going forward, we expect

    organised retail industry to grow faster led by higher

    same store sales growth and new store rollouts,

    especially after hitting a decadal low in 2013-14. New

    store rollouts will drive up demand for retail real estatespace, while prevailing high vacancies will restrict a rise

    in retail lease rentals in the near term..

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    5

    Indian EconomyEconomic Overview June 2014

    Macroeconomic Indicators - Forecasts

    Medium Threat

    Credit growth (%)

    Industrial production grow th Trade Growth (%)

    Currency

    Foreign inflow (US$ bn)

    Interest rates (%)

    Sectoral inflation (%)

    High Threat

    Inflation (%)

    -8

    -4

    04

    8

    May-13

    Jul-13

    Sep-13

    Nov-13

    Jan-14

    Mar-14

    May-14

    FDI+(ECBs/FCCBs)

    Net FII flows

    40

    45

    50

    55

    60

    65

    70

    May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14

    Avg Rs per US$

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14

    Exports Imports

    7

    8

    9

    10

    11

    May-13

    Jul-13

    Sep-13

    Nov-13

    Jan-14

    Mar-14

    May-14

    1 Yr 10 Yr

    4

    8

    12

    May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14

    WPI CPI-IW

    0

    10

    20

    May-13

    Aug-13

    Nov-13

    Feb-14

    May-14

    PrimaryFuelManufacturing

    -4

    0

    4

    Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14

    Mfg

    0

    10

    20

    30

    May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14

    Non-food credit growth

    2013-14 2014-15F Rationale

    Grow th Agriculture 4.6* 3.0

    Industry 0.7* 4.0

    Services 6.9* 7.6

    Total 4.7* 6.0

    Inf lation CPI - Average 9.5 8.0Lagged impact of rate hikes in 2013-14 to bring down non-food inflation. Lower crude

    oil prices to ease inflation in fuel and transportation.

    Fiscal deficit as a % of GDP 4.5 4.3

    Fiscal deficit expected to remain at elevated levels in 2014-15. Low probability of

    adoption of tax ref orms like goods and services tax to cap government revenues. In

    addition, rollover of fuel subsidies from this year to limit the dow nside to subsidies.

    Interest rate10- year G-Sec

    (year end)8.8 8.6

    Low er inflation, better liquidity conditions and higher deposit grow th to push yields

    down. However, high government borrow ings to ref inance outstanding debt to limit the

    downside.

    Exchange

    rate

    Re/US $

    (year end)60.1 60.0

    Forecast revised down to reflect higher foreign inflow s than expected earlier, due to

    monetary easing in the Eurozone and likely opening up of FDI across sectors.

    Note *CSO Advanced Estimates,# Revised estimates, F: Forecasted

    Source: Central Statistical Office, RBI, Budget documents, CRISIL Research

    Resumption of stalled projects, rise in mining output and higher external demand to

    boost growth. Industry to grow at 4.0%. Services and agriculture to grow by 7.6%

    and 3.0% respectively. Risks to forecast f rom a deficient monsoon are however,

    rising.

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    6

    CRISILCRBCustomised Research Bulletin

    Industry Overview Healthcare delivery

    Eyeing the gains in healthcare delivery

    Until a few years ago, words like cataract, corneal

    implant, surgery, conjured images of long-drawn

    operations. No more. With private eye care chains

    widening their presence in India, all treatments from

    optical treatments or cataract surgeries take only a

    few hours at the most. Though costs seem to be a bar,

    the patients queuing arent few. Rising incomes and

    better insurance penetration have led to more people

    seeking paid treatments. Moreover, as private eye care

    centres/ chains require less space and a lower capital

    outgo, the returns and profits are also better vis--vis

    other healthcare delivery models studied by CRISIL

    Research.

    Eye care chains to grow easily as more patientsqueue up

    Estimated to be worth Rs 120 billion as of 2013-14, the

    market for eye care treatments in India is poised to Rs236 billion in the next five years. The emergence of

    private eye care chains, in a space dominated by

    hospitals and standalone centres, will underline the next

    growth story in the eye care services market. But are

    their takers? Definitely. An ageing and increasingly

    diabetic population, greater preference for paid eye

    care, shorter procedures and use of better technology

    in most treatments will aid a steady rise in people

    seeking eye care treatments.

    Large patient population.

    A majority of Indians with eye disorders struggle with

    normal refractive disorders. However, the real gain lies

    in tapping the rising demand for surgeries, especially

    cataract surgeries, in a largely ageing and diabetic

    population. As life expectancy increases, roughly a

    tenth of Indians are likely to come under the above 60-

    year age bracket over the next five years. Secondly,

    India, which is also the diabetes capital of the world, will

    contribute to a huge patient base for eye care

    treatments: about 75 per cent people with Type 2

    diabetes will develop diabetic retinopathy after 15 years

    as a diabetic.

    Eye care surgery market in 2013-14 (volumes)

    Source: CRISIL Research

    better technology making paid eye care attractive

    Almost 50 per cent of eye surgeries are performed free

    of cost or at highly subsidised rates currently. However,

    the emergence of better technology (non-invasive

    treatments) is also aiding the shift away from low-cost

    or free treatments. For instance, cataract surgeries are

    increasingly carried out using phacoemulsification,

    where the lens is emulsified and sucked out through asmall incision rather than manual surgeries, which carry

    a relatively higher risk of infections. Though

    phacoemulsification treatments are at least 40-50 per

    cent pricier than normal procedures, efficiency and the

    lesser time taken outweigh the cost factor.

    Cataract82%

    Retinadiseases

    5%

    Glaucoma2%

    Corneadiseases

    3%

    LASIK etc3%

    Others5%

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    7

    Key private players in the eye care space

    Strong demand for eye care (as highlighted above) and

    lower capital outgo ensures attractive returns on

    investment, which has prompted the entry of chains in

    this industry.

    Returns attractive due to strong demand and lowcapital outgo

    As compared to most other single-specialty hospitals

    such as cardiology, oncology or multi-specialty

    hospitals, a tertiary eye care centre requires a capital

    investment of only Rs 60-70 million. A well-established

    tertiary centre can earn operating margins of 25-30 per

    cent once it breaks even. Similarly, IRRs for an eye

    care centre also fare better vis--vis other healthcare

    delivery models studied by CRISIL Research.

    Eyeing the money

    Hub-and-spoke model aids expansion

    Eye care chains are of three typesprimary (the hub),

    secondary and tertiary (the spokes). Primary centres

    are usually located in rural areas and are mainly for

    outpatient services such as screening and consultation.

    Charitable players mostly operate primary centres. In

    India, on account of shortage of doctors, there are a few

    primary eye care centres with telemedicine facilities.

    Secondary eye care centres are mainly located in

    smaller towns and cities. These centres mostly cater to

    cataract surgeries. For other complex procedures,

    patients are referred to tertiary centres.

    Brand presence, consistent quality key to success

    Low capital costs alone do not make the case for an

    eye care chain. To fully tap the potential of this

    segment, a strong brand presence is essential for any

    player before widening its reach. Associating with

    reputed doctors and consistently delivering quality

    Center Dr Agarwal's Eye

    for Sight Eye Hospitals Q

    Established in 1996 1976 2006

    No of centers 45 44 24

    Locations AP, Gujarat, MP,

    Punjab,

    UP,NCR,J&K,

    Maharashtra,

    Rajasthan

    TN, Karnataka,

    AP, Rajasthan,

    Odisha,

    Andaman &

    Nicobar

    NCR, UP,

    Haryana,

    Uttarkhand,

    Gujarat

    Revenues (Rs

    billion)

    1.2

    ( 2012-13)

    1.1

    ( 2012-13)

    0.25

    ( 2011-12)

    Lotus Medfort Vasan

    Eyecare Hospitals Healthcare

    Established in 1993 n.a. 2002

    No of centers 7 13 150

    Locations TN, Kerala NCR, AP, TN AP, NCR, WB,

    UP, TN, MP,

    Rajasthan,

    Punjab,Maharashtra,

    Kerala,

    Karnataka,

    Gujarat,

    Haryana,

    Jharkhand

    Revenues (Rs

    billion)

    0.3

    ( 2012-13)

    n.a. 5

    ( 2011-12)

    n.a.: Not available; AP: Andhra Pradesh; J&K: Jammu & Kashmir; MP:

    Madhya Pradesh; NCR: National Capital

    Region; TN: Tamil Nadu; UP: Uttar PradeshSource: CRISIL Research

    Type of center/hospital Project IRRs Project Cost

    Eye care center ( 4500 sq f t) 17-18% Rs 60-70 million

    Dialysis center ( 1500 sq ft) 14-15% Rs 9-10 million

    Cardiac super specialty

    hospital ( 100 beds)13-14% Rs 800-900 million

    Oncology super specialty

    ( 200 beds)13-14% Rs 1,700-1,800 million

    Multispecialty Hospital

    ( 200 beds)16-17% Rs 1,500-1,600 million

    Source: CRISIL Research

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    treatments will build the brand. Chains must guardedly

    expand through the franchisee model as any negative

    publicity by word-of-mouth or otherwise can damage

    brand/ business prospects.

    Moreover, eye care is region-specific. A strong brand in

    one city may be unknown in another city. Hence,

    intense marketing efforts are necessary. For example,

    Vasan Healthcare opened eight centres between 2002

    and 2008, and over 120 centres in the next four years.

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    9

    Industry Overview Hotels

    Average occupancy rates (ORs) of premium segment

    hotels in India are expected to improve marginally in

    2015-16 after remaining at decadal lows of 59 per cent

    in 2013-14 and 2014-15. Premium hotels have been

    reeling under severe stress, as a demand slowdown

    coinciding with huge supply additions. However, an

    improvement is in sight from 2015-16 onwards, as

    demand picks up and supply additions slow down.

    While occupancy rates (ORs) are expected to recover

    first, intense competition will keep average room rates(ARRs) remain under pressure over the next two years.

    Consequently, the revenue per available room

    (RevPAR) is expected to remain flattish over next 2

    years.

    Room demand growth to improve to 9 per cent inthe next 2 years

    Demand growth is expected to improve

    F: Forecast

    Source: CRISIL Research

    Post the first economic slowdown in 2008-09, room

    demand for premium hotels increased at a CAGR of 11

    per cent between 2009-10 and 2011-12. As a global

    economic slowdown in 2012-13 and 2013-14 too,

    impacted both business and leisure travel, room

    demand growth slowed to 7 per cent. However, CRISIL

    Research expects room demand growth to improve to

    9- 10 per cent 2014-15 onwards with a recovery in

    business sentiments as the global and Indian macro-

    economic situation improves.

    Rising demand; fewer room additions hint at bettertimes

    Supply growth expected to moderate

    F: Forecast

    Source: CRISIL Research

    Room supply in business and leisure destinations

    F: Forecast

    Source: CRISIL Research

    Room additions by premium hotels are expected to

    increase at a slower 8 per cent over 2014-15 and 2015-

    -0.05

    0

    0.05

    0.1

    0.15

    0.2

    0.25

    2007-08

    2008-09

    2009-10

    201

    0-11

    201

    1-12

    201

    2-13

    2013-14

    2014

    -15F

    2015

    -16F

    33,30036,200

    39,850

    56,85061,100

    66,100

    2013-14 2014-15 F 2015-16 F

    (nos)

    Room demand Room supply

    44,55048,050

    11,050 12,300 13,050

    2013-14 2014-15F

    2015-16F

    2012-13 2013-14 2014-15F

    (nos)

    Room demand Room

    Business destinations Lesiure destinations

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    10

    CRISILCRBCustomised Research Bulletin

    16, as compared to an 11 per cent growth in the

    previous two years. Supply is moderating mainly on

    account of project delays and postponements in light of

    the stress being felt by players. In an environment of

    room oversupply and falling RevPARs, the payback

    period for new hotels has almost doubled to 10-12,

    years causing many plans for new hotels to be shelved

    or delayed.

    ORs likely to improve

    Though pan-India supply will far exceed demand

    F: Forecast

    With an uptick in demand and incremental supply moderating

    over the next 2 years, occupancy rates are expected to

    improve from 2015-16 onwards

    Source: CRISIL Research

    ...More rooms to be occupied in both business and

    leisure destinations

    F: Forecast

    Source: CRISIL Research

    However, ARRs to continue to slide with increasingcompetition

    Pan India- ARR and RevPAR

    F: Forecast

    Source: CRISIL Research

    Average room rates (ARRs) for premium hotels are

    expected to continue falling in 2014-15 and 2015-16

    (after an annual decline of 4 per cent in 2012-13 and

    2013-14). Despite an improvement in occupancy rates,

    an oversupply of rooms, intense competition (also from

    branded mid-market hotels) will curb the pricing power

    of hotels. The revenue per available room (RevPAR),

    which takes into account both ARR and ORs, will

    remain flat over the next 2 years.

    7371

    6561 65 62 61 59 59 60

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    0

    20,000

    40,000

    60,000

    80,000

    2006-07

    2007-08

    2008-09

    2009-10

    2010-11

    2011-12

    2012-13

    2013-14

    2014-15F

    2015-16F

    (per cent)(nos)

    Room demand (LHS) Room supply (LHS)

    Occupancy rate (RHS)

    50

    55

    60

    65

    7075

    80

    2006-07

    2007-08

    2008-09

    2009-10

    2010-11

    2011-12

    2012-13

    2013-14

    2014-15

    F

    2015-16

    F

    (per cent)

    ORs : Business destinations ORs: Leisure destinations

    71007050

    4150 4250

    20

    06-07

    20

    07-08

    20

    08-09

    20

    09-10

    20

    10-11

    20

    11-12

    20

    12-13

    20

    13-14

    201

    4-15F

    201

    5-16F

    (Rs perday)

    ARR RevPAR

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    11

    City-wise forecasts

    Business destinations

    NCR: Room demand, room supply and ORs

    F: Forecast

    Source: CRISIL Research

    Chennai: Room demand, room supply and ORs

    F: Forecast

    Source: CRISIL Research

    Large business destinations such as the National

    Capital Region (NCR), Bengaluru and Chennai will see

    supply additions far in excess of demand, which will pull

    down RevPARs by 3-4 per cent. In contrast, Mumbai

    will see relatively fewer room additions and, thus,

    RevPARs will increase by 5 per cent over the next 2

    years.

    Bengaluru: Room demand, room supply and ORs

    F: Forecast

    Source: CRISIL Research

    Mumbai: Room demand, room supply and ORs

    F: Forecast

    Source: CRISIL Research

    9,250

    16,000

    50

    60

    70

    80

    0

    4,000

    8,000

    12,000

    16,000

    20,000

    2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 F 2015-16 F

    (per cent)(nos)

    Room demand (LHS) Room supply ( LHS)

    Occupancy rate (RHS)

    2,823

    5184

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 F 2015-16 F

    (per cent)(nos)

    Room demand (LHS) Room supply ( LHS)

    Occupancy rate (RHS)

    4,482

    7,717

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    0

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    10,000

    2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 F 2015-16 F

    (per cent)(nos)

    Room demand (LHS) Room supply ( LHS)

    Occupancy rate (RHS)

    6,761

    10100

    50

    60

    70

    80

    0

    3,000

    6,000

    9,000

    12,000

    2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 F 2015-16 F

    (per cent)(nos)

    Room demand (LHS) Room supply ( LHS)

    Occupancy rate (RHS)

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    CRISILCRBCustomised Research Bulletin

    Ahmedabad: Room demand, room supply and ORs

    F: Forecast

    Source: CRISIL Research

    Hyderabad: Room demand, room supply and ORs

    F: Forecast

    Source: CRISIL Research

    Among smaller business destinations, such Hyderabad

    and Ahmedabad, where RevPARs have already

    declined substantially, an increase of 5-8 per cent is

    expected over the next 2 years.

    Leisure destinations

    Jaipur: Room demand, room supply and ORs

    F: Forecast

    Source: CRISIL Research

    Goa: Room demand, room supply and ORs

    F: Forecast

    Source: CRISIL Research.

    Among the large leisure destinations, Jaipur and Goa

    will also record a rise of 3-5 per cent in RevPARs over

    the next 2 years.

    1,020

    1708

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    0

    400

    800

    1,200

    1,600

    2,000

    2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 F 2015-16 F

    (per cent)(nos)

    Room demand ( LHS) Room supply ( LHS)

    Occupancy rate (RHS)

    2,895

    5099

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    0

    1,500

    3,000

    4,500

    6,000

    2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 F 2015-16 F

    (per cent)(nos)

    Room demand (LHS) Room supply ( LHS)

    Occupancy rate (RHS)

    2,442

    4225

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 F 2015-16 F

    (per cent)(nos)

    Room demand (LHS) Room supply ( LHS)Occupancy rate (RHS)

    3,776

    5,152

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    0

    1,500

    3,000

    4,500

    6,000

    2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 F 2015-16 F

    (per cent)(nos)

    Room demand (nos.) Room supply (nos.)

    Occupancy rate (OR) %

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    13

    Industry Overview Organised Retail

    Growth in retail industry to improve marginally in2014-15

    The overall retailing industry in India is estimated to be

    worth ~Rs 31 trillion in 2013-14. Growth in the industry

    sunk to the levels of 10-11 per cent, the slowest in the

    past 10 years, owing to sluggish economic activities.

    Slowdown in overall retailing growth also affected the

    organised retailers. The growth in the 2.4 trillion

    organised retail industry is estimated to have dipped to

    about 12 per cent in 2013-14, the slowest in the past 10

    years on account of weak consumer spending due to

    lower growth in disposable income and limited new

    store rollouts

    We expect the economy to pick up in 2014-15, which, in

    turn, will help improve consumer sentiment. As a result,

    we expect growth in the overall retailing industry to be

    marginally higher at about 12 per cent. For organised

    retailers, we expect growth to improve to about 13-14

    per cent, aided by higher same-store sales and new

    store rollouts.

    Organised retail market y-o-y growth (RHS)

    Note: - E- Estimated, P- Projected

    Source: CRISIL Research

    Operating margins to improve on continued costrationalisation measures

    Despite the slowdown in demand, retailers managed to

    expand margins by ~100 bps in 2013-14 owing to

    various cost rationalisation measures such as limited

    new store rollouts, closure of unprofitable stores, right

    sizing of stores, increasing share of private labels, etc.

    We expect operating margins to improve further by

    about 50-100 bps in 2014-15, on the back of rebound in

    demand, continued cost rationalisation measures, lower

    discounts and discount days and cautious new store

    rollouts.

    Operating margins retail y-o-y growth (RHS)

    Note: - E- Estimated, P- Projected

    Source: CRISIL Research

    ORP to reach 10 per cent in 2018-19

    The overall retailing industry grew at 14-15 per cent

    CAGR during the past 5 years (2008-09 to 2013-14).

    Indias GDP grew by 6.8 per cent CAGR during the

    period. Over the next 5 years, we expect GDP growth to

    slow down marginally to 6 per cent CAGR, pulling down

    overall growth in the retailing industry to 12-13 per cent

    CAGR. We expect the organised sector of the industry

    to grow at a CAGR of 17-19 per cent during 2014-15 to

    2018-19, slower than the previous 5-year CAGR of 22

    1.5 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.8

    34%

    24%

    20%

    12% 13-15%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 E 2014-15 P

    (Rs trillion)

    Organised retail market y-o-y growth (RHS)

    9.58.6

    8.2

    6.9

    8.1 8-9

    20

    34

    24

    20

    1213-14

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.04.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14E

    2014-15P

    ( per cent)( per cent)

    Operating margins Organised retail y-o-y growth (RHS)

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    14

    CRISILCRBCustomised Research Bulletin

    per cent. Retailers are expected to be more cautious in

    terms of new store rollouts, right sizing of the stores and

    space rationalisation.

    Following the growth in the organised retail segment,

    we expect the ORP to reach 10 per cent by 2018-19

    from 7.9 per cent in 2013-14.

    Long term growth prospects for organised retail

    Note: - E- Estimated, P- Projected

    Source: CRISIL Research

    Very low ORP expected in food and grocerysegment

    The food and grocery segment, the largest segment,

    will continue to have very low organised retail

    penetration (ORP) as the players continue to face stiff

    competition from the unorganised grocery stores. On

    the other hand, organised retailers will continue to have

    strong presence in verticals such as apparels,

    consumer durables, jewellery and footwear..

    0.92.2 2.4

    2.8

    5.6

    2008-09 2012-13 2013-14E

    2014-15P

    2018-19P

    ( Rstrillion)

    107.95.8ORP

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    15

    Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltds (Apollos) Q4FY14 results were below CRISILResearchs estimates. While revenue growth of 17.7% y-o-y was broadly in linewith our expectations on account of better performance of the pharmacy business

    (27.6% y-o-y growth), the hospital business reported lackluster performance.Revenue of the hospital business grew a moderate 12.6% on account of loweroccupancy as the ramp-up in the new hospitals has been slower than expected.This resulted in an EBITDA margin contraction of 62 bps y-o-y and 85 q-o-q to15%. Subsequently PAT grew by a modest 14.6% y-o-y, and was lower than ourexpectations. We have lowered our earnings estimates for FY15 and FY16factoring in slower-than-expected ramp-up in new hospitals and delay incommissioning of new hospitals While we expect commissioning of 1,000 newbeds in the next two years to aid revenue growth, we believe it would result intemporary margin pressure. We expect the company to go back to its normalmargin levels of 16% plus post FY16. We maintain the fundamental grade of 5/5given its strong positioning in the healthcare sector, established brand and strongmanagement..

    Growth across hospitals in Chennai, Hyderabad, tier II/III cities: muted

    q-o-q, up y-o-y

    Inpatient volumes grew by a moderate 6.3% y-o-y on account of slow ramp up inthe new hospitals - Ayanambakkam, Jayanagar and Trichy and decline inoccupancy in the existing hospitals. During the quarter, occupancy acrosshospitals was under pressure mainly due to postponement of surgeries. Goingforward, we expect occupancy to improve gradually; this coupled with addition ofbeds is expected to drive revenues. Of the capacity addition plan of 2,310 beds,we expect 560 and 900 beds to be operational by FY15-end and FY16-endrespectively. We expect the hospitals business revenues to grow at a two-yearCAGR of 16.2%; new hospitals are estimated to contribute 10% to revenues inFY16.

    Pharmacy business going strong; expect healthy revenues with margin

    improvement

    As witnessed in the last few quarters, the pharmacy business maintained strong

    growth momentum. Revenues grew by a robust 27.6% y-o-y to 3,649 mn on

    account of increase in revenue per store (up 17.5% y-o-y to 2.24 mn) andaddition of more than 100 stores during the past one year. EBITDA margin acrossstores (mature and non-mature) recorded steady improvement driven by growth inrevenue per store; this coupled with higher contribution from private labels led to60 bps y-o-y improvement in EBITDA margin to 3.3%. Going forward, we expectstrong revenue growth of 21% during FY14-16 driven by an expected 14% growthin same-store-sales and addition of 100 stores per annum. EBITDA margin isexpected to improve to 3.9% in FY16 from 3.3% in FY14.

    Earnings estimates lowered; fair value revised to 1,010 per share from

    1,040

    Factoring in lower volumes and delay in capacity addition, we have loweredFY15-16 EPS estimates by 3.5% and 4.4% respectively. We continue to value

    Apollo by the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. In line with the revision in

    earnings estimates, we have lowered our fair value to 1,010 from 1,040. At the

    current market price, our valuation grade is 3/5..

    KEY FORECAST (CONSOLIDATED)

    ( m n) FY12 FY13 FY14# FY15E FY16E

    Operating income 31,475 37,697 43,842 51,389 60,203

    EBITDA 5,168 6,121 6,724 7,842 9,378

    Adj net income 2,193 3,044 3,167 3,732 4,458

    Adj EPS () 16.3 21.9 22.8 26.8 32.0

    EPS grow th (%) 13.3 34.1 4.0 17.8 19.5

    Dividend y ield (%) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8

    RoCE (%) 12.6 12.8 12.2 12.8 13.7

    RoE (%) 10.1 11.6 11.0 11.9 13.0

    PE (x) 58.1 43.3 41.6 35.3 29.6

    P/BV (x) 5.1 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.7EV/EBITDA (x) 25.7 22.5 20.9 18.4 15.8

    NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price; # : Based on abridged f inancials.

    Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates

    CFV matrix

    Shareholding pattern

    Performance vis--vis market

    1 2 3 4 5

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    Valuation Grade

    FundamentalGrade

    Poor

    Fundamentals

    Excellent

    Fundamentals

    Strong

    Downside

    Strong

    Upside

    KEY STOCK STATISTICS

    NIFTY/SENSEX 7402/24806

    NSE/BSE ticker APOLLOHOSP

    Face value ( per share) 5

    Shares outstanding (mn) 139.1

    Market cap ( mn)/(US$ mn) 131,808/2222

    Enterprise value ( mn)/(US$ mn) 140,548/2369

    52-w eek range ()/(H/L) 1,071/801

    Beta 0.7

    Free f loat (%) 65.7%

    Avg daily volumes (30-days) 224,110

    Avg daily value (30-days) ( mn) 207.4

    34.4% 34.4% 34.4% 34.4%

    42.4% 42.1% 42.1% 41.6%

    2.9% 3.3% 3.3% 3.8%20.3% 20.3% 20.3% 20.3%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14

    Promoter FII DII Others

    1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m

    Apollo 4% 5% 14% -8%

    CNX 500 14% 23% 25% 28%

    Returns

    Independent Equity Research ReportApollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd

    June 05, 2014

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    CRISILCRBCustomised Research Bulletin

    Customised Research Services Real EstateCoverage

    Source: CRISIL Research

    Key Offer ings

    Real estate: Residential, Commercial, Malls & Multiplexes, IT/SEZs etc

    Feasibility study/ Land development mix

    Market potential of a city and Area-wise analysis

    Valuation

    Education: Play schools, K-12, Coaching Institutes, Engineering Institutes, Management Institutes, etc

    Market analysis, Industry sizing and Feasibility Study

    Competitive analysis

    Franchisee evaluation

    Valuation

    Healthcare: Speciality, Super-speciality, Multi-speciality, and allied segments like diagnostic centres,standalone clinics, etc.

    Market analysis, Industry sizing and Feasibility Study

    Competitor analysis/Benchmarking

    Valuation

    Studies on allied services like health insurance, medical colleges, pharmacies and diagnostic centres

    Hospitality: Premium, budget hotels, Service apartments, Quick-service restaurants, coffee shops, etc.

    Market analysis and Feasibility study

    Valuations

    Management company/Franchisee evaluation

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    17

    Media Coverage

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