CRITICAL  NUCLEAR  CHOICES  FOR  THE  SECOND  OBAMA  ADMINISTRATION  Five  Key  Issues  the  United  States  Must  

Face  in  Nuclear  Security  

Cri%cal  Nuclear  Choices:    Obama’s  Second  Term  

 

In  Brief:    • Nuclear  threats  did  not  end  with  the  Cold  War.  Over  the  next  four  years,  the  Obama  administra%on  will  face  cri%cal  choices  on  nuclear  security  challenges.  • The  policies  the  administra%on  pursues  on  Iran,  U.S.  nuclear  strategy,  and  other  issues  will  have  significant  consequences  for  U.S.  na%onal  security.    • PuHng  aside  par%san  rhetoric  and  working  with  both  sides  of  the  aisle  will  be  key  to  developing  policies  that  effec%vely  address  these  cri%cal  nuclear  threats.    Long-­‐Term  Challenges  Remain  in  Five  Key  Areas:  •  PrevenDng  a  Nuclear  Iran  •  North  Korea  –  IsolaDon  or  Engagement?  •  Missile  Defense  and  Russia  •  Redefining  a  Partnership  with  Pakistan  •  The  U.S.  Nuclear  Deterrent  

   

   PrevenDng  a    Nuclear  Iran    

The  State  of  Play:  Iran’s  Nuclear  Program  •  U.S.  intelligence  assesses  that  Iran  has  not  yet  made  

the  decision  to  pursue  a  nuclear  weapon.  •  However,  concerns  about  Iran’s  nuclear  program  

remain,  par%cularly  over  Iran’s  con%nued  uranium  enrichment  and  past  nuclear  research  at  a  controversial  military  facility.  

•  Iran  s%ll  refuses  to  address  ongoing  internaDonal  concerns  about  its  past  and  current  nuclear  work.    

SancDons  and  NegoDaDons  •  SancDons  imposed  by  the  internaDonal  community  

have  had  an  effect  on  Iran’s  economy.  •  While  a  long-­‐term  deal  has  proved  elusive,  experts  and  

officials  agree  that  there  is  sDll  Dme  to  negoDate  an  agreement  on  Iran’s  nuclear  program,  perhaps  star%ng  with  interim  confidence-­‐building  measures.  

•  Another  round  of  talks  between  Iran  and  the  P5+1  is  expected  soon.  

Ayatollah    Ali  Khamenei,  Supreme  Leader  of  Iran   While  the  military  op;on  should  remain  on  

the  table,  at  this  stage  the  diploma9c  route  should  be  pursued.    

Engaging  North  Korea   North  Korea’s  Nuclear  Program:    A  NaDonal  Security  Challenge  

 •  North  Korea  conducted  nuclear  tests  in  2006  and  

2009  and  may  have  enough  fissile  material  for  nine  warheads,  although  North  Korea  likely  lacks  the  technology  to  deploy  a  warhead  on  a  missile.    

•  A  third  nuclear  test,  which  would  increase  North  Korea’s  certainty  in  its  nuclear  technology,  remains  a  possibility.    

•  The  North  Korean  nuclear  challenge  requires  a  carefully  calibrated  approach.    

•  The  U.S.  should  maintain  Northern  denuclearizaDon  as  the  ulDmate  goal  while  consistently  working  toward  accomplishing  more  modest  auxiliary  goals  such  as  regional  economic  coopera%on  and  academic  interac%on.  

Modest  confidence  building  measures  are  necessary  to  establish  a  framework  for  engagement.    

In  Search  of  a  Breakthrough    

•  U.S.-­‐Russia  rela%ons  have  taken  a  downward  turn,  preven%ng  progress  on  key  nuclear  security  issues.    

•  CooperaDon  on  missile  defense  could  be  the  key  to  breaking  through  the  U.S.-­‐Russia  stalemate.  

•  The  U.S.  is  planning  to  deploy  missile  defense  systems  in  Europe  in  a  four  phases,  each  increasingly  capable.    

•  Phase  IV,  the  most  advanced,  is  of  par%cular  concern  to  Russia,  which  insists  that  the  U.S.  enter  into  a  legal  guarantees  that  the  missile  defense  shield  is  not  directed  at  Russia.    

•  The  U.S.  consistently  maintains  that  the  missile  defense  shield  is  directed  at  the  Iranian  and  North  Korean  missile  threats,  not  Russia.    

•  Legal  guarantees,  which  could  put  U.S.  na%onal  security  interests  at  risk,  are  not  acceptable  for  the  U.S.  But  a  poliDcal  agreement  may  be  possible.    

Missile  Defense  AND  Russia  

 

A  poli?cal  agreement  for  U.S.-­‐Russia  missile  defense  coopera?on  could  pave  the  way  for  coopera;on  on  other  important  security  issues.    

A  Standard  Missile  3  Block  IB  Interceptor    

An  SM-­‐3  interceptor  launched  from  an  Aegis-­‐class  ballis;c  missile  defense  ship  

Pakistan’s  Nuclear  Program  

•  One  of  the  fastest  growing  nuclear  arsenals,  Pakistan  is  es%mated  to  have  90  to  110  warheads:  

•  The  threat  from  unauthorized  use  of  a  nuclear  weapon  or  nuclear  prolifera%on  is  great    –  Militants  have  successfully  a^acked  suspected  

Pakistani  nuclear  facili%es  –  Tensions  with  India  make  the  threat  of  nuclear  

escala%on  unacceptable    Points  of  Emphasis  •  Encourage  Pakistan  to  adopt  the  Addi%onal  

Protocol    and  produce  a  formal  nuclear  strategy,  including  a  no-­‐first-­‐use  policy  toward  all  states  

•  Encourage  bilateral  trade  with  India  and  confidence  building  measures  

Engaging  Pakistan  

U.S.  policy  must  be  explicit  enough  to  establish  clear  goals,  func?onal  enough  to  allocate  necessary  resources,  and  dynamic  enough  to  navigate  the  conflic?ng  regional  forces.    

21st  Century  Security  Challenges  •  A_er  the  Cold  War,  the  U.S.  faces  very  different  

security  challenges,  including  climate  change  and  cyberwar.    

•  The  U.S.  nuclear  arsenal  of  over  5,000  warheads  is  excessive  and  ineffecDve  in  addressing  21st  century  security  threats.  

 

An  Outdated,  Expensive  Nuclear  Strategy  

•  The  U.S.  is  on  track  to  spend  about  $640  billion  on  nuclear  weapons  and  related  programs  over  the  next  ten  years.  

•  Unnecessary  nuclear  programs  divert  resources  from  more  important  defense  capabiliDes.    

•  Elimina%ng  excess  nuclear  programs  will  save  billions  that  can  be  invested  in  necessary  defense  capabili%es.    

 

 

 U.S.  Nuclear  Strategy    

The  U.S.   is  planning  to  spend  over  $10  billion  to  refurbish  the  B61  nuclear  bomb  (pictured).  About  200   B61s   are   deployed   in   Europe   today   –  more  than  20  years  aQer  the  end  of  the  Cold  War.      Credit:  Kelly  Michals,  Flickr      

UpdaDng  our  nuclear  strategy  will  strengthen  U.S.  naDonal  security.    

 From  the  American  Security  Project  CriDcal  Nuclear  Choices  for  the  Next  AdministraDon  

 October  2012.  h^p://bit.ly/RaPxhW  Significant  Iranian  SancDons  Since  1995  

 March  2012.  h^p://bit.ly/GUsGBk  Iran  Facts  and  Figures  

 March  2012.  h^p://bit.ly/zbVsmw  North  Korea’s  Nuclear  Program  

 August  2012.  h^p://bit.ly/Rpwuzx  U.S.  Missile  Defense  and  European  Security  

 June  2012.  h^p://bit.ly/Ll65MT  Why  the  U.S.  Cannot  Ignore  Pakistan  

 September  2012.  h^p://bit.ly/P3xEk2  A  New  Approach  to  Nuclear  Weapons  

LtGen.  Dirk  Jameson,  ASP  Consensus  member    April  2012,  h^p://bit.ly/KlYspp  

 Other  Resources  Weighing  the  Benefits  and  Costs  of  Military  AcDon  Against  Iran  

 The  Iran  Project,  September  2012.  h^p://bit.ly/Qee0Vf  What  Nuclear  Weapons  Cost  Us  (Working  Paper)  

 Ploughshares  Fund,  September  2012.  h^p://bit.ly/TqMtA7  

FURTHER  READING      

www.americansecurityproject.org    

Made  by  Mary  Kaszynski  and  Mitchell  Freddura