Thinking about our Thinking;A Critical Thinking Seminar
Mr. David MillerDAU-MW13-14 June 2017
We work in a VUCA environment
Complexity
Multiple key decision factors
Volatility
Rate of change
Ambiguity
Lack of clarity about meaning
of an event
Uncertainty
Unclear about the presentHo
w w
ell c
an y
ou p
redi
ct th
eO
utco
me
of y
our a
ctio
ns?
How much do you know about the situation?
8 hours of sleep is a dream for many of us
Organizations seem to be in “crisis mode” all the time
Acquisition personnel are increasingly being stressed out
We work in a VUCA environment
Paperwork
Counterfeit Parts found
Success in a VUCA environment requires…
Sometimes our thinking leads us to believe things that aren’t true or do things that don’t make any sense…
Not solving these problems leads to…
USS Ford “…a textbook example of how not to build a ship.”USN Sec Malbus Oct 2016
Seminar Objectives
• Get us thinking about our thinking
• Gain awareness of our thinking foibles
• Introduce a framework that improves our thinking
Time
Th
ink
ing
KSA
s
• Our ability to understand and solve VUCA issues directly correlated to our thinking KSAs
• Thinking KSA improvements directly correlate to job performance
The state of our thinking
Time (experience)
Th
ink
ing
KSA
sTo Be
Where you could beReasons for the gap:• Lack of thinking skills• Have thinking skills, but not the disposition to use
those skills• Have thinking skills and disposition, but lack
background knowledge of subject• Have thinking skills, disposition, and domain
knowledge, but don’t have the time…
As Is
The “Do Nothing” Solution
Critical Thinking Definition
“Reasonable reflective thinking aimed at deciding what to believe or
what to do”-Robert Ennis
Define Critical Thinking
Four influences that compromise the quality of our thinking
Emotions
Two Modes of Thinking
System 2 Thinking
System 1 Thinking
IntuitiveAc
ts o
n us
• Substitutes easy questions for hard questions
• Believes things that are easy to believe
• Operates using habits
DeliberateW
e ac
t on
it
• Thinks through the issue but burns a lot of glucose along the way
How do I leverage both systems of
thinking?
Increase PerformanceSimple & Repeatable
Creates healthy habits
Put our thinking to the T-E-S-T
• Translate the problem, opportunity or idea into a short statement or Topic
• Examine your reasoning through the prism of thinking Elements
• Evaluate the quality of your reasoning using universal Standards
• Train to improve your thinking dispositions
Disposition
Topic of Interest
• What you want to think about
• Characteristics of a topic:• Normally a noun• Clearly bounds a defined topic or issue• You have genuine interest in delving “deeper”• Believe a better understanding is achievable • Necessary to garner advocacy or consensus in a group
EST
Eight Elements of Reasoning
T ST
Evaluating the Quality of our Reasoning –Intellectual StandardsStandard Description
Clarity Requiring elaboration, examples and illustrations
Accuracy Verifying a claim is true or testable
Precision Being specific, providing details and being exact in your explanation
Relevance Related to the issue and helps to address any questions related to the issue
Depth Identifying what makes the problem complex and detailing what needs to be done to handle it
Breadth Including all appropriate perspectives are included and the range of people impacted by the issue
Significance Determination of the most important problem to consider or the central idea
Fairness Acknowledging and removing personal biases from the analysis and being judicious in your work
Logic/ Reasoning Show your thinking in a way that makes sense to others.
TE T
Train to be better Critical Thinkers (Seven Dispositions)*
*California Critical Thinking Disposition Inventory
Truth-seeking Open-Minded Analytical Systematic
Inquisitiveness ConfidenceJudicious
When one is disposed to think critically they are said to have a, “…consistent internal motivation to use critical thinking skills to decide what to believe and what to do.” TES
Our most powerful thinking tool?
Proposed Changes to Civilian Retirement Benefits will have major impacts to current feds and retirees- Increase employee contributions by 1 percent- Eliminate COLA
Putting our thinking to the T-E-S-T• Topic: Civilian Retirement Benefits• Elements
– Purpose: Broader understanding– Information: Eliminate COLA for current
and future employees, Increase employee contributions by 1 percent
– Questions: Are DoD civilians impacted?– Points of View: Taxpayer, new
employee, near retirement employee, etc
– Conclusions: Reduce DoD costs on back of civilian, equalizing benefits with private sector
– Assumptions: Civilian retirement system is the gold standard, rational minds prevail, Changes will not impact quality of life, grandfather older civilians
– Consequences: I need to look for another job, change life style, loss of quality civil servants
• Standards– Clarity: How impact retired civilians?– Accuracy: Is it true civil servants have a
“Cadillac” plan?– Relevancy: How are tax cuts to the rich
relevant? – Logic: Does 1 percent cut equate to a
“greatly reduced retirement benefit”?– Fairminded: Did I consider other points
of view?– Depth, Breadth, Precision– Significance: Why “grandfather”?
• Train (Reflection)– Judiciously seek the Truth– Open mind & Inquisitive– Analytical and Systematic– Confidence in Reasoning
Reasonable reflective thinking aimed at deciding what to believe or what to do
Summary
• Think about our thinking!• System I thinking is our preferred approach• System II thinking yields more reasoned
results• T-E-S-T is a simple tool to improve our
thinking• What are your Takeaways?
• One day workshop• Deep dive into practical application
– Obstacles to great thinking– Testing for great thinking
• Team exercises to solidify concepts• Optional-organizational specific application(s)