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Crop Situation SummaryMarch, 2017

Rabi Crops Situation 2016-17Average Market Price Kharif & RabiMarch 2016

1

2-6

9

8

9

11-13

14-17

Normalized Difference Vegetationindex (NDVI Graph) Growth Profile atDivision Level (Mar, 2017 GLAM MAP)

7

7

Average maximum & minimumTemperature & Rainfall for theMonth of March, 2016

Whether summary for themonth of March, 2016

Normally expected weatherduring February, 2016

Irrigation water supply month wisecanal withdrawal (March 2016)

Tarbela and Mangla dam waterinflow and outflow

18

Rabi Crop Situation 2016-17

Cotton Out Look (Index)

Fertilizer consumption in Rabi2016-17

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CONTENT

RICUG LA T U,E RC EI V DR EE P

S A RG TN MIT E

R N

O T,P PE UR NP J

O A

R B

C

PUNJABPROVINCEPUNJABPROVINCEBAHAWALPURBAHAWALPUR

D.G. KHAND.G. KHAN

RAJANPURRAJANPUR

LEIAHLEIAH

JHANGJHANG

BHAKKARBHAKKAR

RAHIM YAR KHANRAHIM YAR KHAN

OKARAOKARA

KASURKASUR

BAHAWALNAGARBAHAWALNAGAR

VEHARIVEHARI

MUZAFFARGARHMUZAFFARGARH

FAISALABADFAISALABAD

MULTANMULTAN

KHANEWALKHANEWAL

SAHIWALSAHIWAL

CHINIOTCHINIOT

LODHRANLODHRAN

SHEIKHUPURASHEIKHUPURA

PAKPATTANPAKPATTAN

LAHORELAHORE

TOBA TEK SINGHTOBA TEK SINGH

NANKANA SAHIBNANKANA SAHIB

ATTOCKATTOCK

CHAKWALCHAKWAL

KHUSHABKHUSHAB

MIANWALIMIANWALI

SARGODHASARGODHA

JHELUMJHELUM

RAWALPINDIRAWALPINDI

GUJRATGUJRAT

SIALKOTSIALKOT

GUJRANWALAGUJRANWALA

HAFIZABADHAFIZABAD

NAROWALNAROWALMANDI BAHAUDDINMANDI BAHAUDDIN

ISLAMABADISLAMABAD

Directorate of AgricultureCrop Reporting Service, Punjab, Lahore

Ph: 0423-7244731-33, Web: crs.agripunjab.gov.pk, Email: dacrspunjab@hotmail.com

OVERTURE

CRSDepartment Punjab, is responsiblefor estimation of Area, Productionand Average yield of AgriculturalCrops in the Province. The acreageand the yield of major and minorcrops are estimated througho b j e c t i v e s a m p l e s u r v e y s ,conducted in 1240 randomlyselected village all over theprovince. Estimates of other minorcrops are compiled throughsubjective methods based on inputuse, farmer’s interviews andassessment make by the field staff.Crop estimates indicating area andproduction of all major and minorcrops are released according tocrop forecast calendar designedin conformity with the requirementof the Federal Government.

, the Wing of Agriculture The Crop Reporting Service (CRS) isalso working in GIS & RS technologywith the collaboration of dominantpartner-

FAO & SUPARCO.

The other collaborating partner are.

Agriculture Extension

Agriculture Marketing

Bureau of Statistics Punjab

Agriculture Policy Institute,IslamabadPakistan Bureau of StatisticsNational Food Security &Research

Revenue Department Punjab

RS & GIS WORKINGCRS WORKING

VOLUME-IV, ISSUE-4, SERIAL #40

Apri

l, 2

017CROP

BULLETIN

CRS CROP BULLETIN CROPS SITUATION MARCH ,2017

The production of wheat depend upon adequate use of fertilizer, nature of soil, timely availability of irrigation water, use of good seed and weather conditions. Rainfall and temperature have a considerable effect on wheat crop. In Pakistan, winter rains generally start in the month of December. But this year dry continental air/foggy atmosphere prevailed over most of the agricultural plains of the country during the month. Mostly dry weather was reported from the agricultural plains of the Punjab except Jhelum in Potohar region. Mean daily temperature remained normal to above normal by 1-4°C in all agricultural plains of the country. Mean daily temperature ranged between 15 to 18°C in Punjab. The night time temperature represented by mean maximum remained above normal by 1-5°C in most of the agricultural plains of the Punjab. Fertilizer supply situation was better as compared to last year. The overall irrigation water supply during Oct, 2016 to Mar, 2017 decreased by 0.941 MAF in the Punjab.

According to Second estimate of wheat crop rabi 2016-17, the production of wheat is assessed to be at about 19560.34 thousand tones as compared to 19526.67 thousand tones produced last year, production shows an increase of 0.17 % over last year which is due to :- 1. Crop was sown at appropriate time particularly in barani tract supported germination/growth. 2.Intermittent rains and cool temperature in Mach proved for healthy grain formation. 3. Availability and use of inputs remained adequate.

The Punjab province is estimated to have produced 246.4 ‘000’ tones of gram crop during current year against 322.4 ‘000’ tones produced last year which shows a decrease of 23.57 % over the last year.

Digging of Potato crop has been completed. The germination and growth of lentil and oilseeds is also reported satisfactory so far. The sowing of Tomato crop has been completed. The growth of the Onion crop is reported satisfactory. The evaporative demand of the atmosphere represented by reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) remained normal to below normal in most agricultural plains of the country except Lahore in Central Punjab and GB region where it remained normal to above normal. The lowest value of ETo was estimated in Quetta in Baluchistan and highest value in Lahore in Punjab.

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Marc, 2017

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) March, 2017 Nitrogenous and phosphates fertilizers consumption is 15.55% higher than last year

which may add to the final wheat crop

Cotton arrival increased by 15.72 % , 0.56 and 9.88 % in Punjab, Sindh and Pakistan respectively on 1st April. 2017

1 CRS, Pb. Crop Bulletin April, 2017-Vol-IV, Issue 4, Serial # 40

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Crop Growth Profile At Divisional Level March,2017 Rawalpindi Division

Sargodha Division

The NDVI values for the month of March shows the increasing trend and almost reached its peak stage.

2 CRS, Pb. Crop Bulletin April, 2017-Vol-IV, Issue 4, Serial # 40

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Crop Growth Profile At Divisional Level March,2016

Gujranwala Division

Lahore Division

The NDVI values for the month of March shows the increasing trend and almost reached its peak stage.

3 CRS, Pb. Crop Bulletin April, 2017-Vol-IV, Issue 4, Serial # 40

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Crop Growth Profile At Divisional Level March,2016

Faisalabad Division

Multan Division

The NDVI values for the month of March shows the increasing trend and almost reached its peak stage.

4 CRS, Pb. Crop Bulletin April, 2017-Vol-IV, Issue 4, Serial # 40

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Crop Growth Profile At Divisional Level March,2016

D.G. Khan Division

Bahwalpur Division

The NDVI values for the month of March shows the increasing trend and almost reached its peak stage.

5 CRS, Pb. Crop Bulletin April, 2017-Vol-IV, Issue 4, Serial # 40

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Crop Growth

Profile At Divisional Level March ,2016

Sahiwal Division

The NDVI values for the month of March shows the increasing trend and almost reached its peak stage.

6 CRS, Pb. Crop Bulletin April, 2017-Vol-IV, Issue 4, Serial # 40

KHARIF CROPS SITUATION 2016-17(Field Work) (Field Work)

Source : CRS Pb Source : PCGA

Source : Agri Marketing March, 2017 Markete International cotton prices climbed higher early in the period, to place the Cotlook A Index at its highest point during the season so far, on March 7. The A index opened the period at 85.25 US cents per lb and subsequently fluctuated higher within a range of a few cents, ending the month at 86.35 cents per lb. The average of the A Index for the month of March was 86.78 cents per lb, the highest value not only of this season thus far but since June 2014. New York futures continued to be influenced by the still considerable volume of mill fixations outstanding against ‘on-call’ purchase contracts, as well as by the uncommonly large speculative long and trade short positions. The ‘inverted’ relationship between July and December futures persisted. The ‘spread’, which at the time of our last review was just over 300 cent points (July premium), had risen by the end of March, to 450 cent points. March 24 saw the introduction of the Forward (2017/18) Cotlook A Index, reflecting cotton for shipment no earlier than October/November. The initial value, at 84.15 cents per lb, represented a discount of 2.70 cents in relation to the Current Index. By March 31, the gap had widened modestly, to 3.85 cents per lb.

Source : Cotton Outlook

7 CRS, Pb. Crop Bulletin April, 2017-Vol-IV, Issue 4, Serial # 40

RABI CROPS SITUATION 2016-17(Field Work) WHEAT The standing condition of crop is satisfactory. Better yield in irrigated areas is reported higher side by 2.61%. The crop is reported at maturity stage. The harvesting in south region has been started at patches.

GRAM

The standing condition of the crop is reported satisfactory. The crop has attained early maturity stage due rising temperature in Thal. The green crop as for vegetable purpose is available in the market.

OILSEED

The standing condition of different oilseed crops has been reported/observed satisfactory. The harvesting of crop remained in full swing during the month.

POTATO (AUT)

Digging of Potato crop has almost been completed in the Punjab. However, according to yield estimation survey, 2% to 3% less average yield is being obtained as compared to previous year due to dry weather and frost at its growth and maturity time.

TOMATO

The growth of the crop has been observed / reported satisfactory .The crop is on flowers & fruit formation stage & progressing well. The growers remained busy in spraying of pesticides to control the pest / disease attack. Its picking under tunnel is reported in progress. The tomato of Punjab will be available after first week of April. ONION Growth of Onion crop is reported satisfactory so far. Weather is favourable for crop LENTIL Standing condition of crop has been reported / observed normal. The crop is at maturity stage. The main growing districts of lentil crop are Rawalpindi, Chakwal, Gujrat and Narowal which fall in barani tract.

8 CRS, Pb. Crop Bulletin April, 2017-Vol-IV, Issue 4, Serial # 40

FERTILIZER

Fertilizers do not only assist in increasing yields and promoting healthy growth of plants but also in their development. They contain nitrogen which acts as a growth booster which can be characterized by the green color of plants. Phosphorus substance in fertilizers aids in the faster formation of seeds and root development. The availability of Nitrogen and Phosphate fertilizers remains normal in the month of March, 2017.

IRRIGATION WATER SUPPLY SITUATION

Timely availability of water greatly influences the crop production and yields. In order to meet the agricultural needs, adequate and timely availability of water is an essential pre-requisite. The average uses of Water in Rabi 2016-17 season in the Punjab is about 19.751 MAF and Punjab share based on forecast of water availability is 16.160. The canal water supply during March , 2017 is 2.732 MAF as compared to last year 2.839 MAF shows a increase of 16.75%.

Source: NDFC, AE&AR

9 CRS, Pb. Crop Bulletin April, 2017-Vol-IV, Issue 4, Serial # 40

WATER INFLOW, OUTFLOW AND LEVEL OF TARBELA AND MANGLA DAMS ARE

SHOWN BELOW.

Source: Pb Irrigation Dpt.

10 CRS, Pb. Crop Bulletin April, 2017-Vol-IV, Issue 4, Serial # 40

AGRO-MET CONDITIONS MARCH, 2017

Source: PMD

MAP: CRS,Pb

11 CRS, Pb. Crop Bulletin April, 2017-Vol-IV, Issue 4, Serial # 40

AGRO-MET CONDITIONS MARCH, 2017

Source: PMD

MAP: CRS,Pb

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AGRO-MET CONDITIONS MARCH, 2017

Source: PMD

MAP: CRS,Pb

13 CRS, Pb. Crop Bulletin April, 2017-Vol-IV, Issue 4, Serial # 40

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH,2017 Winter rains generally start from December up to March in Pakistan. March is normally one of the wettest months of winter season. During this March, below normal rains were reported in most agricultural plains of the country. Numbers of rainy days recorded in the country ranged from 1 to 16 days. Maximum number of rainy days observed as 16 at Kalam followed by 14 days at Kakul, 13 days at Rawalakot and Kohat each and 12 days at Bagrote, Balakot and Parachinar each.. The evaporative demand of the atmosphere represented by reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) remained normal to below normal in most agricultural plains of the country except Lahore in Central Punjab and GB region where it remained normal to above normal. The lowest value of ETo was estimated in Quetta in Baluchistan and highest value in Lahore in Punjab. The mean daily Relative Humidity (R.H) was observed mostly below normal in most of the agricultural plains of the country except Tandojam in lower Sindh, where it was observed above normal. Maximum value of mean Relative humidity was observed 56% at D.I.Khan, Sargodha and Skardu each. The minimum value was observed 37% at Rohri. From overall analysis, it is evident that although below normal rains were received and generally weather conditions remained favorable during the month in most of the agricultural plains of the country, however produced good impact on the standing crops particularly on wheat crop which is on the maturity stage. Farmers of wet areas, especially in upper half agricultural plains of the country must be careful about timely and proper use of chemical spraying to avoid/minimize losses caused by pest attacks. Temperature Regime during March, 2017 Temperature plays vital role in the growth and development of crops. Thermal regime remained normal to slightly above normal in most of the agricultural plains of the country during the month. Mean daily temperature remained above normal (by 1-3°C) in most of the agricultural plains of the country. Mean daily temperature ranged 18 – 22°C in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 19 to 21°C in Potohar plateau, in remaining parts of Punjab it ranged 22 – 24°C, in Sindh it reached to 26°C, in Gilgit-Baltistan region it ranged 7 to 12°C and was observed 11°C in the high elevated agricultural plains of Balochistan represented by Quetta valley. Maximum number of stress days with minimum temperature less than or equal to 0°C was observed throughout the month in Skardu for 11 days and for 1 day at Gilgit and Quetta. Number of stress days with maximum temperature greater or equal to 30°C or 40°C and R.H. less than or equal to 30% was also observed for 03 days at Khanpur in Southern Punjab. The night time temperature represented by mean minimum remained above normal by 1–3°Cin most of the agricultural plains of the country. The highest maximum temperature was recorded 44°C at Larkana and the lowest minimum temperature was recorded –7.5°C at Kalam. Agricultural soils showed mostly normal to below normal trend at shallow layer in the major agricultural areas of the country. At intermediate and deep layers, normal to slightly above normal trend of soil temperatures is observed in all the major agricultural plains of the country represented by Faisalabad in Central Punjab, Quetta valley in Balochistan, Rawalpindi in Potohar Region and Tandojam in Lower Sindh. From the general analysis of soil behavior in this month, it is concluded that moisture has satisfactory status in the irrigated as well as rainfed areas in upper and central parts of the country. Moisture is present in soil for the cultivation of coming Kharif crop. Solar Radiation and Wind Regime during March, 2017 Total bright sunshine hours and solar radiation intensity showed falling trend in most of the agriculture plains of the country. Mean wind speed throughout agricultural plains of the country ranged between 1 to 7 km/h with North to North-West trend. Maximum wind speed observed as 9.5 km/h in D.I.Khan.

14 CRS, Pb. Crop Bulletin April, 2017-Vol-IV, Issue 4, Serial # 40

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH, 2017

Source:PMD

Graph: CRS,Pb

15 CRS, Pb. Crop Bulletin April, 2017-Vol-IV, Issue 4, Serial # 40

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH, 2017

Source:PMD

Graph: CRS,Pb

16 CRS, Pb. Crop Bulletin April, 2017-Vol-IV, Issue 4, Serial # 40

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH, 2017

Cumulative Rainfall, ETo and water stress for Rabi Season (October to March)

Source:PMD

17 CRS, Pb. Crop Bulletin April, 2017-Vol-IV, Issue 4, Serial # 40

NORMALLY EXPECTED WEATHER DURING APRIL 2017

Normally Expected Weather during April, 2017 Westerly rain bearing systems will remain active over Pakistan with the decreasing frequency of occurrence as compared to the peak winter months. The northern parts of the country will be mainly influenced by these weather systems and frequency of precipitation days would be greater in these areas as compared to other parts of the country. Some precipitation associated with thunderstorm/ hailstorm is also expected due to local weather developments in the northern parts. However, due to increased solar heating, mesoscale convective activity dominates over the plains and mountainous areas. As a result, sometimes heavy downpour associated with hailstorm and thunderstorm occurs with localized characteristics. Occasional dust storm or gusty winds are the common features of April. Mean daily air temperatures may range between 23°C and 30°C over most of the low elevation agricultural plains of the country whereas in high agricultural plains of Balochistan, it may be around 17°C. The mean daily maximum temperatures are expected to range from 30 to 39°C following a southward increasing trend except Quetta valley where it may remain around 25°C. The mean minimum temperatures are likely to be in the range of 15 to 23°C except high agricultural plains of Balochistan where it may remain around 8°C.The mean daily duration of bright sunshine is expected to range from 8 to 10 hours over most of the agricultural plains of the country. The intensity of solar radiation may range from 19 to 21 MJ/M2/day. The mean daytime wind speeds are likely to range from 4-8 Km/hour over most of agricultural areas of the country except high agricultural plains of Balochistan where it may average about 11 Km/hour. The outlook for the month of April shows that normal to below normal rainfall is expected in most of the central and southern parts of the country with maximum negative anomaly in the central region. However, upper parts including upper KP, GB, Kashmir and eastern parts of Punjab may get slightly above normal rainfall during the month. The outlook for the month of May shows that normal to below normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country. However, northwestern KP may get slightly above normal rainfall.

18 CRS, Pb. Crop Bulletin April, 2017-Vol-IV, Issue 4, Serial # 40