FAO‐OECD WORKSHOPBuilding resilience for adaptation to climate change

in the Agricultural sectorg

Case Study

Crop-Livestock Production Systems in the Sahel

Increasing resilience for adaptation to climate change andIncreasing resilience for adaptation to climate change and preserving food security

A.IckowiczV.AnceyC.CorniauxG.DuteurtreR.Poccard-ChappuisI.TouréE.VallA.Wane

FAO/OECD Workshop, Rome, 23‐24 April 2012 1

UMR SELMET

Research Unit : CIRAD SELMET

DRP PPZSDRP PPZS DRP Malica

DRP Medit ?

DRP PPZSDRP FADT

DRP ASAP

Integrated approach Economic and value chain approach

• Ruminant livestock systems• Arch environments (mediterranean and tropical context)

• 3 axes: Livestock and local/territorial development 40 researchersPlant and Ruminant adaptation processes

FAO/OECD Workshop, Rome, 23‐24 April 2012 2

Plant and Ruminant adaptation processesLivestock system innovation

Content

1. Introduction

2 Crop Livestock PS in Sahel (CLPSS)2. Crop-Livestock PS in Sahel (CLPSS)

3. Various risks faced by CLPSS

4. Vulnérability and adaptation strategies

5. Options to enhance adaptation strategies

6 Conclusion6. Conclusion

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INTRODUCTION

H l i l i W C Af i• Homogeneous agroecological zone in W-C Africa

• Unreliable rainfall (200-600mm/y)

• Rural population: >70% rural• Rural population: >70% rural

• Mainly crop-livestock systems

• Historicaly used to adaptation strategies

•

• New challenges : Demography; CC; Environt; Global Market

• Important impacts : are they resilient ?

How did they adapt or not?• How did they adapt or not?

• What do do to enhance resilience and preserve FS?

Focus on Western Sahel

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Crop‐Livestock Production Systems in the Sahel (CLPSS)

• Livestock only grazing systems in arid and semi arid areas (LGA)• Livestock only grazing systems in arid and semi-arid areas (LGA)• Rainfed mixed crop-livestock systems in arid and semi-arid areas (MRA)• Irrigated mixed crop-livestock systems in arid and semi-arid areas (MIA)

(Sere and Steinfeld 1996; Robinson et al 2011)

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(Sere and Steinfeld 1996; Robinson et al 2011)

Crop‐Livestock Production Systems in the Sahel (CLPSS)

Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Senegal

• 40 million people• 18 million Cattle• 24 million Sheep• 32 million Goats• more than 55 % of WA Livestock• more than 30 % of Agric GDP (# 17.2%)• decrease population expected by 2050

• Mobile LS• Rangeland ans crop residues

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Fernandez-Rivera et al., 2004

Crop‐Livestock Production Systems in the Sahel (CLPSS)

T d

70 000

80 000

Trends

50 000

60 000

0) Cultivated area (ha)

20 000

30 000

40 000

(x 1

00

( )Human populationTotal TLU

0

10 000

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

• Rapid growth : human and livestock population

Years

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• More tension on land and resources

Crop‐Livestock Production Systems in the Sahel (CLPSS)

FUNCTIONS (1/2)FUNCTIONS (1/2)• Economic:

30 % A GDP i th S h l h i i d ht• 30 % Agr GDP in the Sahel; cash income; savings; draught

power; salary employment growing

P id t l k t• Provide coastal markets;

• Not sufficient to respond regional demand growth (trade deficit)

• Ecological

• Some concerns (Livestock’s Long Shadow, FAO 2006): GHG

• Positive impacts : soil fertility; biodiversity; water cycle; C

sequestration

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Crop‐Livestock Production Systems in the Sahel (CLPSS)

FUNCTIONS (2/2)FUNCTIONS (2/2)• Social

• Traditional common resources use and regulations• Society organisation on herd/pasture/water• Collective risk managt; Food Security managt; Social Reproduction• Growing interactions between MRA and LGA: local organisationsGrowing interactions between MRA and LGA: local organisations

(resource managt; marketing)

F d it• Food security• Pastoral: mobility and reciprocity (weekening): food; savings; income• Agropastoral: decreasing revenue from agriculture and land pressure> rural exodus

• Public authorities : low support to local production (export prices; low import taxes; services)

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p ; )

Crop‐Livestock Production Systems in the Sahel (CLPSS)

VARIOUS RISKSVARIOUS RISKS• Climatic risks

• An historical profile (CV # 30 %)• High spatial variability (20-30 km)

Population adapted to this environment: mobility; species; herd size; crop areas; activities• Population adapted to this environment: mobility; species; herd size; crop areas; activities• Major crisis when 2 successive dry years : stocks run short• Sahel regreening• Unreliable CC prediction: 1.8-2°C but on rainfall ? (Monsoon)(Hiernaux, Soussana 2011)

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Unreliable CC prediction: 1.8 2 C but on rainfall ? (Monsoon)(Hiernaux, Soussana 2011)• Local differences > global trends; extreme events (Thornton et al 2009)

Crop‐Livestock Production Systems in the Sahel (CLPSS)

VARIOUS RISKSVARIOUS RISKS• Economical risks

• Cereal and oil price volatility (MTx 2)

Figure 2.3 – World prices trends of cereals and oil  

1995-2011

p y ( )(HLPE 2011)

• Few information on animal feed

• Effect on animal feed market in Sahel(Assani et al 2011)

WheatRice

(Assani et al 2011)• Very heterogeneous national contexts(import taxes; demand; production; exchange rate)• National margins Maize

Soybean

Evolution of the price of ruminant feed by type of seller (xof/kg)

Evolution of the price of ruminant feed by type of seller (xof/kg)

Diesel

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Crop‐Livestock Production Systems in the Sahel (CLPSS)

VARIOUS RISKSVARIOUS RISKS• Economical risks

• Low local market livestock prices duringcrisis

• Effect of « terms of trade » for trade

Interannual comparison of terms of trade goat-millet (2010)

• Effect of « terms of trade » for tradeexchanges correlated mainly to harvestand rainfall (Dietvorst and Kerven 1992)

• Exacerbation with speculation and pricep pvolatility (David-Benz et al 2011)

• Need for harmonized information on marketsNeed for harmonized information on markets• Need for multidimensional approach of FS :

availability, access and use of food

• CILSS : Harmonized Framework for FS

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CILSS : Harmonized Framework for FS

Crop‐Livestock Production Systems in the Sahel (CLPSS)

VARIOUS RISKSVARIOUS RISKS• Land tenure risks

• High demography in Sahel: 2.5 %/y; x2 in 2030 with 70% rural (100 million inhab)• Cultivated land growing rapidly at expense of rangeland : mobility constraint conflicts• Cultivated land growing rapidly at expense of rangeland : mobility constraint, conflicts• Modern legislation recognize collective land management by livestock F but not applied• Land appropriation: export crops• Decentralization policies: integration of livestock and mobile herders is a challenge

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Crop‐Livestock Production Systems in the Sahel (CLPSS)

VARIOUS RISKSVARIOUS RISKS

• Sanitary risks

• Historical issue : epizootics control; vaccination

(Rinderpest; Pleuropneumoniae; Anthrax;…)( p p )

• Production losses remain important: young animals (infectious deseases, parasites,…)Production losses remain important: young animals (infectious deseases, parasites,…)

(environmental, feed and sanitary factors)

• Impact of climate change very complex to estimate (Thornton et al. 2009)

FAO/OECD Workshop, Rome, 23‐24 April 2012 14

Crop‐Livestock Production Systems in the Sahel (CLPSS)

Vulnerability and adaptation strategies

• A model of vulnerability/securisation for livestock farmers (Ancey et al 2009)

FAO/OECD Workshop, Rome, 23‐24 April 2012 15

Crop‐Livestock Production Systems in the Sahel (CLPSS)

Main adaptation strategies

M bilit li bl d k ti H bilit• Mobility : unreliable resources and marketing; Human mobilityPastoralists less exposed to external shocks than export agricultural sector (HLPE 2011)

A t f t t l i it• Agreements for access to natural resources: reciprocity

• Spécialisation in livestock production and marketing (wealthy farmers)

• Diversification of activities: crop, small trade (small holders)

• Social network and support: share manpower and livestock (poorest)Social network and support: share manpower and livestock (poorest)

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Crop‐Livestock Production Systems in the Sahel (CLPSS)

Indicators of vulnerabilityLevel of analysis

National or Agroecological

zone

Rural community Villageor Pastoral Unit

Family or Farm

Indicators of vulnerability to climatic risks

Water availability in time and spaceVegetation and Animal biodiversityNatural biomass availabilityRelative Cropping  areas related to population

Water Infrastructures(Not specific)

Access to water Payment for waterForage stocksMobility ratioFood Stocks

Type of mobilityLivestock and food  salesHerd size and cultivated area / size familyLivestock  feeding practicesAvailable laborDiversity of incomerelated to population

Pest distributionDiversity of income

Level of analysisNational or

Agroecological zone

Rural community Villageor Pastoral Unit

Family or FarmMultiscale

Multistakeholders

Indicators of(Not specific)

Sales structure modificationTerms of tradeLow food diversityMarket distanceMarket dynamics and accessAccess to information 

Diversity of productsHigh value productsDecreased number of daily mealUse of high quality inputsIntegration in value chain

Participatory

Indicators of vulnerability to

economical risks

Available financial services: insurance, credit, grantsRevenu structure

(Not specific)on marketsUnusual mobility

Self consumption levelDiversity of income

FAO/OECD Workshop, Rome, 23‐24 April 2012 17

Crop‐Livestock Production Systems in the Sahel (CLPSS)

Options to enhance adaptation strategies (1/2)

• Integrated policies:Capacitiy of farmers to access resources and services at

different scales

• Land tenure options:pCollective management in arid areas to secure mobility

and common good management with investmentsand common good management with investments

FAO/OECD Workshop, Rome, 23‐24 April 2012 18

Crop‐Livestock Production Systems in the Sahel (CLPSS)

Options to enhance adaptation strategies (2/2)

• Other policy options: Need of multi-level governancep y p g

• Regional: WAEMU and ECOWAS. Economic liberalisation > Nat Agr share but ECT for sensible products, common agricultural policies,

l d trural devpt.

• National: State withdrawal, free market, commercial agricultureNeed more services for producers/family agricultural systemsp y g y

• Local: Very diverse among sahelian countriesIssue: empowerment of local governance by devpt projects

• Technical options:• Information tools to enhance anticipation• Agroecological intensification for FS and sustainable development

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g g p• System innovation to promote sustainable CLPSS at territorial level

Crop‐Livestock Production Systems in the Sahel (CLPSS)

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION• CLPSS are highly adaptable production systems to various risks

including climatic risks

• Food security is included in adaptation strategies

M bilit i f j l t f t f d t ti• Mobility is one of major relevant factor of adaptation

• More pressure: demography; global market; environment

• Integrated and multiscale policies

• Multistakeholder analysis and policy makingMultistakeholder analysis and policy making

• Combination of (semi)industrial and family livestock systems

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• An equilibrium needed to avoid future crisis and jeopardization

THANK YOU

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