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InVEST Crop Model
Foley et al. 2011
• What are the trade-offs in clearing land for agriculture? • What is the value of ecosystem services to agriculture?
InVEST Crop “Model”
• Atypical ecosystem service – heavily managed– market already exists– decades of globally available data!
• Atypical approach (for InVEST)
Crop Yield
Intermediate Inputs
Crop Value
Crop Yield Model
• Estimated (observed or average) yields
• Modeled yields– Intensified yields
(75% attainable)– Unintensified yields
(25% attainable)
Foley et al. 2011
Crop Yield Intermediate
Inputs
Crop Value
Intermediate InputsMapping N, P, K and irrigation rates as:– inputs to Crop Value model (input costs)– possible inputs to
other InVEST models (nutrient retention, water yield)
Crop Yield Intermediate
Inputs
Crop Value
Crop Value ModelReturns = Revenue – Costs– Revenue = Price x Yield* x Area– Costs:
Crop Yield Intermediate
Inputs
Crop Value
Crop Yield Model, in detail• Start with user-
generated crop map • Get estimated and modeled
(% attainable) yields
Forest
Grassland
Maize
Soy
SoyWheat
Maize
MaizeRiparian
• InVEST data includes: – observed yield maps for 175 crops– climate bin maps for 175 crops– income bin map (World Bank/OECD designation)– climate/income bin average yield table– attainable yield table (Foley et al. model)
Crop Yield Model:Mapping Estimated Yields
first try looking at observed yield maps
if no data, take average for that climate/income
bin HIyield MIyieldLIyield1 8.2 6.1 3.42 7.6 4.9 2.7…
Crop Yield Model:Mapping Modeled Yields
• Foley et al. (2011): attainable yield = 95th percentile yield within each climate bin
“Unintensified” yields “Intensified” yields
Crop Yield ModelNext Steps: Downscaling
• Higher resolution climate data to assign bins on the fly, capture local climate heterogeneity
SSURGO
• Data validation project with local yield datasets, regress other parameters
Crop Model Applications: Unilever Contract
How will changes in corporate crop consumption affect land-use, ecosystem services?
Library of Congress
Crop Model Applications:Mapping Nutrition
• Nutrient = ∑(Yieldc - Refusec) x Areac x Nutrientc
• Next step: Nutrition = Nutrient x RDA x Population density• Still need: animal products, bioavailability
How much of required nutrition is produced locally?
Vitamin C