37
Crop Production Executive Summary Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch September 11, 2020
Crop Production
Executive Summary
Lance Honig, ChiefCrops Branch
September 11, 2020
Special Note
September 11, 2020
• All forecasts in the report are based on conditions as of September 1. Any potential impacts from below freezing temperatures after September 1 will be reflected in future reports.
• NASS collected additional harvested acreage information for corn and soybeans in Iowa in response to the August 10 derecho. Corn harvested for grain area was reduced 550,000 acres; soybean acres were unchanged. NASS will collect harvested acreage for corn and soybeans in Iowa for the October Crop Production report since producer decisions were not final for all impacted acres.
• As is done every year in September, planted and harvested acreage was reviewed for cotton, peanuts, and rice using all available data, including FSA Certified Acreage Data.
Data Sources
September 11, 2020
September 2020 Ag Yield Sample Sizes
Operator Reported
Survey
Field Objective Yield
Survey Corn, Cotton, Soybeans
Remotely Sensed Time Series 250 Meter Focus Area Imagery Through
(Satellite) MODIS Satellite Data Corn Belt August 27
Ag Yield Sample Size = 9,140 August 29 - September 7
Sample Size = 3,930 August 25 - September 1
Iowa DerechoAugust 10, 2020
September 11, 2020
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Research_and_Science/Disaster-Analysis/index.php
U.S. Drought MonitorSeptember 1, 2020
September 11, 2020
United States Corn ConditionPercent Rated Good to Excellent
September 11, 2020
Percent
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
5/24 5/31 6/7 6/14 6/21 6/28 7/5 7/12 7/19 7/26 8/2 8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
United States Corn ProgressPercent Dented
September 11, 2020
Percent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8/2 8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 2020 CornAcreage, Yield, and Production
September 11, 2020
United States% Change from
Previous Estimate
% Change from
Previous Season
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
Iowa 14,000 ↑ 3.7 13,000 ↓ 0.4 191 ↓ 3.5 2,483,000 ↓ 3.9
Illinois 10,900 ↑ 3.8 10,700 ↑ 4.9 203 ↑ 12.2 2,172,100 ↑ 17.7
Nebraska 9,800 ↓ 3.0 9,450 ↓ 3.7 188 ↑ 3.3 1,776,600 ↓ 0.5
Minnesota 8,100 ↑ 3.8 7,650 ↑ 5.5 200 ↑ 15.6 1,530,000 ↑ 22.0
Indiana 5,400 ↑ 8.0 5,250 ↑ 8.9 186 ↑ 10.1 976,500 ↑ 19.9
Production(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
NC
2.6 ↑ 6.6 ↑ 9.4
0.7 ↓ 1.8 ↓ 2.5
Planted Harvested Yield Production
92,006 83,473 178.5 14,899,557
↓
↑ ↑
Top 5 States - By Production
2.6
Planted Harvested Yield
% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
108.6
131.5
100.7
138.6
113.5
127.1126.7
134.4133.8136.9138.2
129.3
142.2
160.3
147.9149.1150.7
153.3
164.4
152.6
146.8
123.1
158.1
171.0168.4
174.6176.6176.4
167.4
178.5
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
September 2020 Corn YieldUnited States
September 11, 2020
Bushels per Acre
September 2020 Corn YieldBushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
September 11, 2020
September 2020 CornNASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield
September 11, 2020
September 2020 Corn Objective YieldEars per Acre and Yield for 10 State Region
September 11, 2020
Ears per Acre Bushels per Acre
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
27,000
27,500
28,000
28,500
29,000
29,500Se
ptem
ber
Oct
obe
r
No
vem
be
r
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
obe
r
No
vem
be
r
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
obe
r
No
vem
be
r
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
obe
r
No
vem
be
r
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
obe
r
No
vem
be
r
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
obe
r
No
vem
be
r
Fin
al
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ears per Acre Yield
12.3
10.8
13.814.2
13.6
15.114.6 14.3
13.6
14.9
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 2020 Corn ProductionUnited States
September 11, 2020
Billion Bushels
2020 U.S. Corn ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS
September 11, 2020
14.7
14.8
14.9
15.0
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.5
August September October November Final
Billion Bushels
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Soybean ConditionPercent Rated Good to Excellent
September 11, 2020
Percent
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
5/24 5/31 6/7 6/14 6/21 6/28 7/5 7/12 7/19 7/26 8/2 8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
United States Soybean ProgressPercent Dropping Leaves
September 11, 2020
Percent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 2020 SoybeansAcreage, Yield, and Production
September 11, 2020
United States% Change from
Previous Estimate
% Change from
Previous Season
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
Illinois 10,400 ↑ 4.5 10,350 ↑ 5.0 62.0 ↑ 14.8 641,700 ↑ 20.5
Iowa 9,400 ↑ 2.2 9,320 ↑ 2.2 54.0 ↓ 1.8 503,280 ↑ 0.3
Minnesota 7,400 ↑ 8.0 7,330 ↑ 8.3 52.0 ↑ 18.2 381,160 ↑ 28.0
Indiana 5,700 ↑ 5.6 5,680 ↑ 6.0 60.0 ↑ 17.6 340,800 ↑ 24.7
Nebraska 5,000 ↑ 2.0 4,950 ↑ 2.3 60.0 ↑ 2.6 297,000 ↑ 4.9
↑ 9.5 ↑ 21.4
Top 5 States - By Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production
↑ 10.2
NC NC ↓ 2.6 ↓ 2.5
% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
↑ 10.8
83,825 83,020 51.9 4,312,819
Planted Harvested Yield Production
34.2
37.6
32.6
41.4
35.3
37.6
38.9 38.9
36.6
38.1
39.6
38.0
33.9
42.243.1 42.9
41.7
39.7
44.043.5
42.0
40.0
44.0
47.548.0
51.9
49.3
50.6
47.4
51.9
29
34
39
44
49
54
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
September 2020 Soybean YieldUnited States
September 11, 2020
Bushels per Acre
September 2020 Soybean YieldBushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
September 11, 2020
September 2020 SoybeansNASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield
September 11, 2020
September 2020 Soybean Objective YieldPods per 18 Square Feet and Yield for 11 State Region
September 11, 2020
Pods per 18 Square Feet Bushels per Acre
35
40
45
50
55
60
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000Se
ptem
ber
Oct
obe
r
No
vem
be
r
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
obe
r
No
ve
mb
er
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
obe
r
No
vem
be
r
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
obe
r
No
ve
mb
er
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
obe
r
No
ve
mb
er
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
obe
r
No
vem
be
r
Fin
al
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Pods per 18 Square Feet Yield
September 2020 Soybean ProductionUnited States
September 11, 2020
Billion Bushels
3.10 3.04
3.36
3.93 3.93
4.30 4.41 4.43
3.55
4.31
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020 U.S. Soybean ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS
September 11, 2020
4.10
4.15
4.20
4.25
4.30
4.35
4.40
4.45
4.50
August September October November Final
Billion Bushels
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Cotton ConditionPercent Rated Good to Excellent
September 11, 2020
Percent
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
5/31 6/7 6/14 6/21 6/28 7/5 7/12 7/19 7/26 8/2 8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
United States Cotton ProgressPercent Bolls Opening
September 11, 2020
Percent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8/2 8/9 8/16 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 2020 CottonAcreage, Yield, and Production
September 11, 2020
United States% Change from
Previous Estimate
% Change from
Previous Season
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)
Texas 6,836 ↓ 3.2 3,880 ↓ 26.2 737 ↑ 27.5 5,959 ↓ 6.0
Georgia 1,200 ↓ 14.3 1,190 ↓ 13.8 932 ↓ 2.2 2,310 ↓ 15.7
Arkansas 525 ↓ 15.3 520 ↓ 14.8 1,200 ↑ 1.3 1,300 ↓ 13.7
Mississippi 530 ↓ 25.4 525 ↓ 25.0 1,179 ↑ 6.0 1,290 ↓ 20.4
Alabama 450 ↓ 16.7 445 ↓ 16.4 976 ↑ 5.2 905 ↓ 12.0
Top 5 States - By Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
↓ 22.5 ↑ 10.6 ↓ 14.3
↓ 0.6 ↓ 2.6 ↓ 3.0
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)
12,116 9,005 910 17,064
↓ 5.6
↓ 11.8
Planted Harvested Yield Production
September 2020 Cotton AcresUnited States
September 11, 2020
Million Acres14.7
12.3
10.4
11.1
8.6
10.1
12.7
14.113.7
12.1
9.5 9.3
7.5
9.4
8.1
9.5
11.1
10.0
11.6
9.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Planted Harvested
652
700
606
708
537
705
673
625607
632
705
665
730
855
831814
879
813
776
812
790
892
822838
766
867
905
882
823
910
480
530
580
630
680
730
780
830
880
930
980
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
September 2020 Cotton YieldUnited States
September 11, 2020
Pounds per Acre
September 2020 Cotton YieldPounds and Percent Change from Previous Month
September 11, 2020
September 2020 Cotton ProductionUnited States
September 11, 2020
Million Bales
15.6
17.3
12.9
16.3
12.9
17.2
20.9
18.4
19.9
17.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
September 11, 2020
September 2020 Field CropsAcreage, Yield, and Production
Unit Unit
Chickpeas Lb Cwt
% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 16.4 ↓ 16.5 N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 43.7 ↓ 38.3 ↑ 1.1 ↓ 37.6
Pima Cotton Lb Bale
% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 2.8 ↑ 1.8 ↓ 1.0 ↑ 0.8
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 12.3 ↓ 13.5 ↓ 5.7 ↓ 18.5
Upland Cotton Lb Bale
% Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 0.6 ↓ 2.7 ↓ 3.2 ↓ 5.8
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 11.8 ↓ 22.6 ↑ 11.0 ↓ 14.2
Lentils Lb Cwt
% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 5.3 ↑ 5.4 N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 6.6 ↑ 12.8 ↑ 7.0 ↑ 20.7
Peanuts Lb Lb
% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 10.0 ↑ 10.2 ↓ 0.8 ↑ 9.3
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 16.6 ↑ 16.6 ↑ 6.0 ↑ 23.6
Dry Edible Peas Lb Cwt
% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 5.5 ↑ 5.2 N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 9.4 ↓ 9.8 ↓ 8.1 ↓ 17.1
1,665 1,623
999 949
254
Yield(Units per Acre)
6,793,220
18,534
201 193
11,915 8,812
518 486
Harvested(1,000 Acres)
Planted(1,000 Acres)
1,388
899
1,338
4,185
1,953
6,504
Production(1,000 Units)
3,889
559
16,505
1,561249
September 11, 2020
September 2020 Field CropsAcreage, Yield, and Production
Unit Unit
Rice Lb Cwt
% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 4.0 ↑ 4.1 ↓ 0.9 ↑ 3.1
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 19.6 ↑ 20.9 ↑ 0.8 ↑ 21.8
Sorghum Bu Bu
% Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 3.5 ↓ 3.5
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 6.7 ↑ 3.6 ↑ 1.2 ↑ 4.8
Sugarcane Ton Ton
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ 0.9 ↑ 1.1 ↑ 2.0
% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 2.1 ↑ 4.6 ↑ 6.9
Sugarbeets Ton Ton
% Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 0.6 ↓ 0.7
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 1.4 ↑ 15.1 ↑ 6.8 ↑ 22.9
Tobacco Lb Lb
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↓ 0.5 ↓ 0.6 ↓ 1.1
% Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 13.8 ↓ 8.7 ↓ 21.3
1,148 1,127 31.2 35,143
N/A 196 1,880 368,065
73.9 357,910
N/A 932 36.6 34,138
Planted Harvested Yield Production
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units)
3,037 2,988 7,529 224,952
5,620 4,845
September 11, 2020
September 2020 Fruit and NutsProduction
38.535.5
45.0
36.031.0
44.0
32.0
51.0
44.0
71.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Thousand Tons
Hazelnut ProductionOregon
461497 492
571606
689
630679
653
780
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Thousand Tons
Walnut ProductionCalifornia
Unit
Hazelnuts (OR) Ton
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 61.4
Navel Oranges (CA) Ton
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 5.2
Walnuts (CA) Ton
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 19.4
Production(1,000 Units)
71.0
1,680
780
Selected Upcoming Reports
September 11, 2020
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php
September 24 Hogs and Pigs
September 25 Cattle on Feed
Agricultural Prices
Grain Stocks
Small Grains Summary
Cotton System
Fats & Oils
Grain Crushings
Cotton Ginnings
Crop ProductionOctober 9
October 1
September 30
USDA NASS Data Users’ Meeting
September 11, 2020
Wednesday, October 28, 202012:30 p.m. – 3:30 p.m. EDT
Registration information coming soon.
#StatChat
September 11, 2020
