Crops Day - Moe Agostino, 2014 Grain Outlook – Is $4.00 Corn the New Normal?

1

2014 28th ANNUAL GREY BRUCE FARMERS WEEK – 2014 GRAIN MARKET OUTLOOK - IS

$4.00 CORN NEW NORMAL?

2

2012 GRAIN OUTLOOK: IS $7.00 CORN THE NEW NORMAL?

3

2011 PRICE TARGETS (GAME PLAN)

CROP PRICE FORECAST

CORN SHORT-TERM (30-60 DAYS) $6.74 - $7.00LONG-TERM (60 – 210 DAYS $7.00 - $7.50

SOYBEANS SHORT-TERM (30-60 DAYS) $12.50 - $13.00LONG-TERM (60 – 210 DAYS) $13.50 -

$14.00

CANOLA SHORT-TERM (30-60 DAYS) $545LONG-TERM (60 – 210 DAYS) $575 - $600

CHICAGO WHEAT SHORT-TERM (30-60 DAYS) $7.27LONG-TERM (60 – 210 DAYS) $8.00 - $8.25

4

2012 PRICE TARGETS (GAME PLAN)

CROP PRICE FORECAST

CORN DECEMBER FUTURES US $7.00 – $8.00

SOYBEANS NOVEMBER FUTURES US $14.00 - $15.00

CANOLA NOVEMBER FUTURES $600 - $630/MT

CHICAGO WHEAT SEPTEMBER FUTURES $8.00 - $8.50

5

Review of 2011 & 2012 U.S. DROUGHT

2013 similar to 1988 as a “SHORT CROP, LONG TAIL” year.

2014 Grain Supply & Demand (Fundamental) Outlook

14 Macro Economic Outlook (outside markets) & Global Trends

2014 Chart/Technical Outlook

2014 Ontario Basis Outlook

2014 Weather Outlook

2014 Bottom-line & Game Plan

2014 Price Outlook & Targets

AGENDA

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MONTHLY LONG-TERM CORN CHART

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U.S. DROUGHT PEAKED IN SEPTEMBER OF 2012

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2012 U.S. HEAT & DROUGHT DESTROYED U.S. CORN YIELDS 122.8 BPA

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U.S. DROUGHT WORST IN 91 YEARS, JULY 16, 2012

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WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES JULY 2013

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U.S. CORN YIELDS DATING BACK TO 1866

RARE & VERY UNUSUAL

2012 QUALIFIES AS A “SHORT CROP, LONG TAIL YEAR” LIKE 1988

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SHORT CROP

LONG TAIL

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2012 “SHORT CROP, LONG TAIL”

MANAGED MONEY CROWD WERE RECORD LONG

COMMODITY LONG OR SHORT

(05/31/11)

LONG OR SHORT

(11/22/11)

LONG OR SHORT

(07/10/12)

LONG OR SHORT

(08/14/12)

CORN LONG 328,112

LONG 149,084

LONG 201,956

LONG 303,178

SOYBEANS LONG 117,551

SHORT (8,622)

LONG 250,792

LONG 230,545

WHEAT LONG 83,241

SHORT (50,582)

LONG62,468

LONG 77,104

2013’S LONG TAIL GOT LONGER

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NEEDED TO SELL A YEAR IN ADVANCE

2014 GRAIN OUTLOOK

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2014 JANUARY USDA WASDE REPORT BULLISH CORN, NEUTRAL SOYS & BEARISH WHEAT!

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2014 MARCH WEEKLY CORN FUTURES CONTRACT

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PRE 2014 JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. CORN SUPLLY & DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK

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PRE 2014 JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. CORN DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK

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POST 2014 JANUARY USDA WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. CORN SUPLLY & DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK

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POST 2014 JANUARY USDA WASDE REPORT - 2014 U.S. CORN DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK

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PRE 2014 JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. SOYBEAN SUPLLY & DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK

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PRE 2014 JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. SOYBEAN DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK

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POST 2014 JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. SOYBEAN SUPLLY & DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK

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POST 2014 JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 U.S. SOYBEAN DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK

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PRE 2014 USDA JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. ALL WHEAT SUPLLY & DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK

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PRE 2014 USDA JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. ALL WHEAT DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK

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POST 2014 USDA WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. ALL WHEAT SUPLLY & DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK

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POST 2014 USDA WASDE REPORT - 2014 U.S. ALL WHEAT DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK

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LONG-TERM WEEKLY CHART ON CHICAGO WHEAT FUTURES

SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM

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2014 USDA AG OUTLOOK FORUM

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2014 USDA AG OUTLOOK FORUM

2013 PROJECTIONS

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2013/14 GLOBAL TRENDS

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#1 LARGEST ECONOMY U.S. LOOKING BETTER GROWING AT 3.6% IN 13, +2.5% IN 2014

STOCK MARKETS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THE WALL OF WORRY TO NEW ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS, NEGATIVE FOR COMMODITIES

BUT….


2014 DJIA MARCH WEEKLY FUTURES CHART

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#2 LARGERST ECONOMY CHINA EXPECTED TO GROW AT +7.70+ IN 2013, +8.2% IN 2014

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OPEC PROJECTING $100 – $110 ON INCREASED DEMAND, SUPPLY WILL WEIGH


2014 FEBRUARY WEEKLY CRUDE OIL FUTURES CHART

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HEATING OIL FUTURES HIGHER = HIGHER DIESEL FUEL PRICES


2014 FEBRUARY WEEKLY HEATING OIL FUTURES CHART

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STRONGER EUROPE, GROWTH IN 14 = HIGHER EURO $


2014 MARCH WEEKLY EURO $ FUTURES CHART

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U.S. $ INDEX TRENDING LOWER, SUPPORT AT $80


2014 MARCH U.S. $ INDEX FUTURES CHART

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CDN $ TRENDING LOWER, SUPPORT AT $0.93 A $ YEAR LOW


2014 MARCH CANADIAN $ WEEKLY FUTURES CHART

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US TAPER WILL SLOW DOWN, BUT LABOR MARKET WEAK???

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RASING OF DEBT CEILING RISK OFF THE TABLE IN 2014, NO RECESSION FOR 12 – 24 MONTHS


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2014 TECHNICAL CHART OUTLOOK

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2014 JULY CORN DAILY FUTURES CHART

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2014 DECEMBER CORN DAILY FUTURES CHART

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2014 JULY SOYBEAN DAILY FUTURES CHART

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2014 NOVEMBER SOYBEAN DAILY FUTURES CHART

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2014 JULY CHICAGO WHEAT DAILY FUTURES CHART

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2014 ONTARIO BASIS WATCH

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2013 & 2014 ONTARIO CORN BASIS

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2013 & 2014 ONTARIO SOYBEAN WATCH

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2013 & 2014 ONTARIO CHICAGO WHEAT (SRW) BASIS

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2013 WEATHER & CROP PROGRESS UPDATE

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP – U.S. AT 54% VS. 12 AT 74%

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP – U.S. MIDWEST AT 33% (BETTER BY 9% IN 1 MONTH) ABNORMALLY DRY VS. 12 AT 72%

BUT SOIL MOISTURE LOOKING GOOD

U.S. WINTER TO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL

U.S. MIDWEST SUMMER 2014 HOT & WET

U.S. TEMPS % PRECIPITATION NOVEMBER 2013 – OCTOBER 2014

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BOTTOM-LINE

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2014 TRENDS TO WATCH

WATCH SPECULATORS REMAIN SHORT CORN & WHEAT, SOYS HAVE MOST TO LOSE AS FUNDS REMAIN LONG

COMMODITY LONG OR SHORT (05/31/11)

LONG OR SHORT(06/18/12)





CORN LONG328,112

LONG 43,024

LONG303,178

LONG 62,864

LONG 82,517

SHORT 891,451

SOYBEANS LONG 117,551

SHORT 212,956

LONG230,545

LONG 128,296

LONG 153,615

LONG 107,658

CHICAGO WHEAT

LONG 83,241

SHORT (6,367)

LONG77, 104

SHORT 46,286

SHORT 16,697

SHORT 73,088

WATCH CHINESE DEMAND (UP 5 FOLD IN 5 YEARS)

WATCH WEATHER NEEDS TO BE DRY EARLY FOR FUTURES TO RALLY

LOOK FOR A LOWR CDN $ FOR BASIS OPPORTUNITIES

2013/14 OLD CROP BASIS TARGETS

COMMODITY 01-09-14 BASIS/BU

BASIS TARGET LEVEL/BU TO

BOOK

CORN -0.20 0.00 - +0.10

SOYBEANS +0.70 +1.00 - +1.20

CHICAGO WHEAT (SRW)

-0.15 0.10 - +0.30

2014/15 NEW CROP BASIS TARGETS

COMMODITY 12/09/13 BASIS LEVEL/BU

BASIS TARGET LEVEL/BU TO

BOOK

CORN -0.25 0.00 - +0.10

SOYBEANS +0.20 +40 - +0.60

CHICAGO WHEAT (SRW)

-0.30 0.00 - +0.20

2014 MARKETING GAME PLAN

2013/14 OLD CROP FUTURES TARGETS

COMMODITY FUTURES MONTH

FUTURES TARGET PRICE UPDATE

CORN JULY 2014 $5.00 - $5.50

SOYBEANS JULY 2014 $12.60 - $12.80

CHICAGO WHEAT JULY 2014 $7.00 - $7.25

2014/15 NEW CROP FUTURES TARGETS



CORN DECEMBER 2014

$5.09 - $5.29

SOYBEANS NOVEMBER2014

$12.03 - $12.28


2015/16 NEW CROP FUTURES TARGETS



CORN DECEMBER 2014

$5.12 - $5.29

SOYBEANS NOVEMBER2014

$11.84 - $12.07


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THANK YOUQUESTIONS & DISCUSSION

Please e-mail or call me at

Maurizio (Moe) AgostinoFarms.com Risk Management

Managing Commodity Strategist 1-877-438-5729 Ext. 5040

Cell: 1-519-871-2134E-mail: [email protected]

75

COMMODITY MARKETING THAT MAKES CENT$

Date post:	12-Nov-2014
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Crops Day - Moe Agostino, 2014 Grain Outlook – Is $4.00 Corn the New Normal?

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