+ All Categories
Home > Documents > Crude By Rail - COQA · 06/06/2013  · performance of the Company or the rail industry to be...

Crude By Rail - COQA · 06/06/2013  · performance of the Company or the rail industry to be...

Date post: 07-Aug-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 1 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
20
James Cairns Vice President, Petroleum and Chemicals June 6 th , 2013 - COQA Crude By Rail
Transcript

James Cairns Vice President, Petroleum and Chemicals

June 6th, 2013 - COQA

Crude By Rail

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

The financial results in this presentation were determined on the basis of U.S. GAAP. Please refer to the website www.cn.ca/nonGAAP for the reconciliation of certain non-GAAP measures to comparable GAAP measures. To the extent we have provided guidance which are non-GAAP financial measures, we may not be able to provide a reconciliation to the GAAP measures, due to unknown variables and uncertainty related to future results. Certain information included in this presentation constitutes “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and under Canadian securities laws. CN cautions that, by their nature, these forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. The Company cautions that its assumptions may not materialize and that current economic conditions render such assumptions, although reasonable at the time they were made, subject to greater uncertainty. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results or performance of the Company or the rail industry to be materially different from the outlook or any future results or performance implied by such statements. Key assumptions used in determining forward-looking information are set forth below.

Key assumptions

CN has made a number of economic and market assumptions in preparing its 2013

outlook. The Company is forecasting that North American industrial production for the

year will increase by about 2.0 per cent. CN also expects U.S. housing starts to be in

the range of 950,000 units and U.S. motor vehicles sales to be approximately 15

million units. In addition, CN is assuming that 2013/2014 grain crop production in both

Canada and the U.S. will be in-line with their respective five-year averages. With

respect to the 2012/2013 crop, production in Canada was slightly above the five-year

average while production in the U.S. was below the five-year average. With these

assumptions, CN assumes carload growth of three to four per cent, along with

continued pricing improvement above inflation. CN also assumes the Canadian-

U.S. exchange rate to be around parity for 2013 and that the price of crude oil

(West Texas Intermediate) for the year to be in the range of US$90-$100 per

barrel. In 2013, CN plans to invest approximately C$1.9 billion in capital

programs, of which more than C$1 billion will be targeted on track infrastructure

to maintain a safe and fluid railway network. In addition, the Company will invest

in projects to support a number of productivity and growth initiatives.

Important risk factors that could affect the forward-looking statements include,

but are not limited to, the effects of general economic and business conditions,

industry competition, inflation, currency and interest rate fluctuations, changes in

fuel prices, legislative and/or regulatory developments, compliance with

environmental laws and regulations, actions by regulators, various events which

could disrupt operations, including natural events such as severe weather,

droughts, floods and earthquakes, labor negotiations and disruptions,

environmental claims, uncertainties of investigations, proceedings or other types

of claims and litigation, risks and liabilities arising from derailments, and other

risks detailed from time to time in reports filed by CN with securities regulators in

Canada and the United States. Reference should be made to “Management’s

Discussion and Analysis” in CN’s annual and interim reports, Annual Information

Form and Form 40-F filed with Canadian and U.S. securities regulators, available

on CN’s website, for a summary of major risk factors.

CN assumes no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to

reflect future events, changes in circumstances, or changes in beliefs, unless

required by applicable Canadian securities laws. In the event CN does update

any forward-looking statement, no inference should be made that CN will make

additional updates with respect to that statement, related matters, or any other

forward-looking statement.

Balanced Portfolio Q1 2013

Intermodal 20%

Petroleum and Chemicals 15%

Crude & Condensate 4%

Grain and Fertilizers 16%

Forest Products 14%

Metals and Minerals 11%

Other Revenues 8%

Coal 7%

Automotive 5%

Based on Q1 2013 revenues

This is CN

Crude is a Relatively Small Component of CN’s Traffic Mix

Creating Capacity for Growth

Increasing capital envelope by C$100M this year

• Investing smartly to improve network resilience and drive productivity

• Speed and train length create network capacity

New detour route on

Prairie North Line

(PNL)

New sections of double-

track improving network

resilience

Additional long

sidings increasing

capacity

Increasing

Symington Yard

capacity

4

Creating Capcity- Rateability

Customer able to accept 44% higher volumes with 33% lower dwell times

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12

Cars Loaded/Unloaded Cars Dwelling >24 hours

Pipeline Management Initiative

Consistent Dwell

Increased Volumes

Avg C

ars

>24 h

rs

Month

ly

Loadin

g/U

nlo

adin

g

Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12

Railroads have a tremendous safety record for moving hazardous materials, including crude oil

99.997 percent of rail hazmat shipments reach their destination without a release caused by a train accident

The federal governments (Canada and U.S.) have comprehensive regulations covering the safety and security

of the movement of hazardous materials by rail – including the U.S. DOT, Federal Railroad Administration

(FRA), Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), Transportation Security

Administration (TSA) and Transport Canada (TC)

CN 2013 capital program of about $1.9B with more than C$1 billion targeted on track infrastructure

CN’s Commitment to Safety is Unwavering

CN FRA Accident Ratio (accident rate per million train miles)

CN FRA Injury Ratio (injury frequency rate per 200,000 work hours)

Rail Does Not

Preclude Pipe

7

Benefits of Shipping Crude by Rail

8

Lower capital cost / lower

risk

Short lead time from concept to shipment

Scalability – grow into a

pipeline project

Dispatchability (not locked

into one geographic

pocket)

Real market access right

now

8 8

Why Rail, Why Now

Modeling Period

Large Volume Firm

Commitment Pipeline Small Volume Rail

(17% Condensate)

Bitumen

Netback

Bitumen

Netback

Diluent Haulback Netback +

Haulback

Trailing 1 Year $39.60 $64.91 $5.58 $70.49

Trailing 3 Year $46.78 $55.55 $1.83 $57.38

Since Jan 2007 $46.83 $45.55 $3.95 $49.50

First wave of CBR borne out of pipeline capacity constraints

Second wave driven by crude price differentials – Brent versus WTI

Current wave driven by pure rail economics for heavy crudes

Pipelines ship

dilbit, refineries buy

bitumen

Bitumen by rail Dilbit by pipeline

70%

30%

CN’s Unique Franchise

Close proximity to AB, SK and

MB production and pipe line hubs

CN directly overlays

the major heavy

crude producing

regions (Peace River,

Athabasca, Cold

Lake)

Strong presence in

the Canadian Bakken

light crude region,

with 3 operating

facilities and 2 more

in development

Operating Distribution

Centers

Under Development

Future Development

PEACE

RIVER ATHABASCA

COLD LAKE

Sexsmith Whitecourt

East Edmonton

Roma

Mitsue

Bruderheim

High Level

Cheecham

Lynton

Mannville

Wainwright

Kindersley

Unity

Islay Lloydminster

Lashburn

Regina

Direct Access to Eastern

Canada Consumers and

Tidewater

CN served crude destination site

Offline crude destination site

Dartmouth

Saint John Limoilou

Saint-Romuald Tracy

Montreal

Nanticoke Sarnia

Detroit Woodhaven

Toledo

Chicago

Wood River

Physical access to all Eastern

Canada refineries; Sarnia ON,

Nanticoke ON, Saint John NB,

Saint-Romuald PQ

Physical access to seaway

distribution terminals; Tracy,

Quebec City

Tidewater access to PADD I,

PADD III, Europe and India

Direct Access to Gulf

Coast PADD III

Consumers Jackson

ARC (Mobile)

Genesis (Natchez)

LBC Sunshine (St. Gabriel)

Stone Oil (Manchac) Crosstex

(Geismar)

Valero

(Norco)

IMTT (St.Rose)

Genesis (Baton Rouge)

Single-line high-velocity turnaround

service from Alberta / SK oilfields to

PADD III refineries. Capacity available

right away.

Access refineries directly from Baton

Rouge to New Orleans corridor

Access refineries by barge / pipeline up

to Houston ship channel via CN-served

tidewater distribution terminals

Lynton, AB to Natchez, MS – 2,800 rail miles

14

Finding Bigfoot

Fort McMurray

(Cheecham)

Edmonton

Kitimat

CN Rail is an element of the condensate supply strategy

Peak of 50,000 barrels per day

Currently 30,000 barrels per day

CN condensate hubs

New tank cars in service 2012 vs. 2015*

In the third quarter of 2012

alone, ~4,500 tank cars

were delivered

Rail Car Production – The Future is Heavy

*CN Estimate

Facility Development:

Shifting to Unit Train

Infrastructure

2011: Manifest - CN Facilitated Transload

2012: Manifest - truck to tank to rail

2013: Unit Train - Pipe to tank to unit train

Now Open - Rail loading facility and tank farm for

crude in Fort McMurray, AB

CN Crude by Rail Adoption Rate

Carloads - Thousands Long haul crude traffic (average length of haul – miles)

Crude by rail is now a meaningful component of the crude supply chain

0 1,000 2,000

Crude

Manufacturing

All traf f ic

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2010 2011 2012 2013F

Destination

Location

2012 2013 2014

Manifest Unit Train Manifest Unit Train Manifest Unit Train

East Coast 6 1 6 2 6 3

USGC 7 0 8 2 8 4

West Coast 1 0 1 0 1 0

19

Origin Region

2012 2013 2014

Manifest Unit Train Manifest Unit Train Manifest Unit Train

Peace River 2 0 3 1 4 2

Athabasca 2 0 4 0 4 2

Edmonton 3 0 5 1 5 3

Lloydminster 4 0 4 1 4 2

Bakken 3 0 4 1 4 2

CN Facility Development: Shifting to

Unit Train Infrastructure

In Summary – The CN Advantage

Superior geographic reach

Rail economics for heavy crudes are not spread dependant

Rail car and facility constrains are being addressed.

Rapid expansion of unit train capacity on CN’s network

Connectivity to Brent markets on 3 coasts

Can’t beat single line connectivity

The J gets us around Chicago

CN’s is committed to being a supply chain enabler


Recommended