FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
The financial results in this presentation were determined on the basis of U.S. GAAP. Please refer to the website www.cn.ca/nonGAAP for the reconciliation of certain non-GAAP measures to comparable GAAP measures. To the extent we have provided guidance which are non-GAAP financial measures, we may not be able to provide a reconciliation to the GAAP measures, due to unknown variables and uncertainty related to future results. Certain information included in this presentation constitutes “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and under Canadian securities laws. CN cautions that, by their nature, these forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. The Company cautions that its assumptions may not materialize and that current economic conditions render such assumptions, although reasonable at the time they were made, subject to greater uncertainty. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results or performance of the Company or the rail industry to be materially different from the outlook or any future results or performance implied by such statements. Key assumptions used in determining forward-looking information are set forth below.
Key assumptions
CN has made a number of economic and market assumptions in preparing its 2013
outlook. The Company is forecasting that North American industrial production for the
year will increase by about 2.0 per cent. CN also expects U.S. housing starts to be in
the range of 950,000 units and U.S. motor vehicles sales to be approximately 15
million units. In addition, CN is assuming that 2013/2014 grain crop production in both
Canada and the U.S. will be in-line with their respective five-year averages. With
respect to the 2012/2013 crop, production in Canada was slightly above the five-year
average while production in the U.S. was below the five-year average. With these
assumptions, CN assumes carload growth of three to four per cent, along with
continued pricing improvement above inflation. CN also assumes the Canadian-
U.S. exchange rate to be around parity for 2013 and that the price of crude oil
(West Texas Intermediate) for the year to be in the range of US$90-$100 per
barrel. In 2013, CN plans to invest approximately C$1.9 billion in capital
programs, of which more than C$1 billion will be targeted on track infrastructure
to maintain a safe and fluid railway network. In addition, the Company will invest
in projects to support a number of productivity and growth initiatives.
Important risk factors that could affect the forward-looking statements include,
but are not limited to, the effects of general economic and business conditions,
industry competition, inflation, currency and interest rate fluctuations, changes in
fuel prices, legislative and/or regulatory developments, compliance with
environmental laws and regulations, actions by regulators, various events which
could disrupt operations, including natural events such as severe weather,
droughts, floods and earthquakes, labor negotiations and disruptions,
environmental claims, uncertainties of investigations, proceedings or other types
of claims and litigation, risks and liabilities arising from derailments, and other
risks detailed from time to time in reports filed by CN with securities regulators in
Canada and the United States. Reference should be made to “Management’s
Discussion and Analysis” in CN’s annual and interim reports, Annual Information
Form and Form 40-F filed with Canadian and U.S. securities regulators, available
on CN’s website, for a summary of major risk factors.
CN assumes no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to
reflect future events, changes in circumstances, or changes in beliefs, unless
required by applicable Canadian securities laws. In the event CN does update
any forward-looking statement, no inference should be made that CN will make
additional updates with respect to that statement, related matters, or any other
forward-looking statement.
Balanced Portfolio Q1 2013
Intermodal 20%
Petroleum and Chemicals 15%
Crude & Condensate 4%
Grain and Fertilizers 16%
Forest Products 14%
Metals and Minerals 11%
Other Revenues 8%
Coal 7%
Automotive 5%
Based on Q1 2013 revenues
This is CN
Crude is a Relatively Small Component of CN’s Traffic Mix
Creating Capacity for Growth
Increasing capital envelope by C$100M this year
• Investing smartly to improve network resilience and drive productivity
• Speed and train length create network capacity
New detour route on
Prairie North Line
(PNL)
New sections of double-
track improving network
resilience
Additional long
sidings increasing
capacity
Increasing
Symington Yard
capacity
4
Creating Capcity- Rateability
Customer able to accept 44% higher volumes with 33% lower dwell times
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12
Cars Loaded/Unloaded Cars Dwelling >24 hours
Pipeline Management Initiative
Consistent Dwell
Increased Volumes
Avg C
ars
>24 h
rs
Month
ly
Loadin
g/U
nlo
adin
g
Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12
Railroads have a tremendous safety record for moving hazardous materials, including crude oil
99.997 percent of rail hazmat shipments reach their destination without a release caused by a train accident
The federal governments (Canada and U.S.) have comprehensive regulations covering the safety and security
of the movement of hazardous materials by rail – including the U.S. DOT, Federal Railroad Administration
(FRA), Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), Transportation Security
Administration (TSA) and Transport Canada (TC)
CN 2013 capital program of about $1.9B with more than C$1 billion targeted on track infrastructure
CN’s Commitment to Safety is Unwavering
CN FRA Accident Ratio (accident rate per million train miles)
CN FRA Injury Ratio (injury frequency rate per 200,000 work hours)
Benefits of Shipping Crude by Rail
8
Lower capital cost / lower
risk
Short lead time from concept to shipment
Scalability – grow into a
pipeline project
Dispatchability (not locked
into one geographic
pocket)
Real market access right
now
8 8
Why Rail, Why Now
Modeling Period
Large Volume Firm
Commitment Pipeline Small Volume Rail
(17% Condensate)
Bitumen
Netback
Bitumen
Netback
Diluent Haulback Netback +
Haulback
Trailing 1 Year $39.60 $64.91 $5.58 $70.49
Trailing 3 Year $46.78 $55.55 $1.83 $57.38
Since Jan 2007 $46.83 $45.55 $3.95 $49.50
First wave of CBR borne out of pipeline capacity constraints
Second wave driven by crude price differentials – Brent versus WTI
Current wave driven by pure rail economics for heavy crudes
CN’s Unique Franchise
Close proximity to AB, SK and
MB production and pipe line hubs
CN directly overlays
the major heavy
crude producing
regions (Peace River,
Athabasca, Cold
Lake)
Strong presence in
the Canadian Bakken
light crude region,
with 3 operating
facilities and 2 more
in development
Operating Distribution
Centers
Under Development
Future Development
PEACE
RIVER ATHABASCA
COLD LAKE
Sexsmith Whitecourt
East Edmonton
Roma
Mitsue
Bruderheim
High Level
Cheecham
Lynton
Mannville
Wainwright
Kindersley
Unity
Islay Lloydminster
Lashburn
Regina
Direct Access to Eastern
Canada Consumers and
Tidewater
CN served crude destination site
Offline crude destination site
Dartmouth
Saint John Limoilou
Saint-Romuald Tracy
Montreal
Nanticoke Sarnia
Detroit Woodhaven
Toledo
Chicago
Wood River
Physical access to all Eastern
Canada refineries; Sarnia ON,
Nanticoke ON, Saint John NB,
Saint-Romuald PQ
Physical access to seaway
distribution terminals; Tracy,
Quebec City
Tidewater access to PADD I,
PADD III, Europe and India
Direct Access to Gulf
Coast PADD III
Consumers Jackson
ARC (Mobile)
Genesis (Natchez)
LBC Sunshine (St. Gabriel)
Stone Oil (Manchac) Crosstex
(Geismar)
Valero
(Norco)
IMTT (St.Rose)
Genesis (Baton Rouge)
Single-line high-velocity turnaround
service from Alberta / SK oilfields to
PADD III refineries. Capacity available
right away.
Access refineries directly from Baton
Rouge to New Orleans corridor
Access refineries by barge / pipeline up
to Houston ship channel via CN-served
tidewater distribution terminals
Lynton, AB to Natchez, MS – 2,800 rail miles
Finding Bigfoot
Fort McMurray
(Cheecham)
Edmonton
Kitimat
CN Rail is an element of the condensate supply strategy
Peak of 50,000 barrels per day
Currently 30,000 barrels per day
CN condensate hubs
New tank cars in service 2012 vs. 2015*
In the third quarter of 2012
alone, ~4,500 tank cars
were delivered
Rail Car Production – The Future is Heavy
*CN Estimate
Facility Development:
Shifting to Unit Train
Infrastructure
2011: Manifest - CN Facilitated Transload
2012: Manifest - truck to tank to rail
2013: Unit Train - Pipe to tank to unit train
Now Open - Rail loading facility and tank farm for
crude in Fort McMurray, AB
CN Crude by Rail Adoption Rate
Carloads - Thousands Long haul crude traffic (average length of haul – miles)
Crude by rail is now a meaningful component of the crude supply chain
0 1,000 2,000
Crude
Manufacturing
All traf f ic
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2010 2011 2012 2013F
Destination
Location
2012 2013 2014
Manifest Unit Train Manifest Unit Train Manifest Unit Train
East Coast 6 1 6 2 6 3
USGC 7 0 8 2 8 4
West Coast 1 0 1 0 1 0
19
Origin Region
2012 2013 2014
Manifest Unit Train Manifest Unit Train Manifest Unit Train
Peace River 2 0 3 1 4 2
Athabasca 2 0 4 0 4 2
Edmonton 3 0 5 1 5 3
Lloydminster 4 0 4 1 4 2
Bakken 3 0 4 1 4 2
CN Facility Development: Shifting to
Unit Train Infrastructure
In Summary – The CN Advantage
Superior geographic reach
Rail economics for heavy crudes are not spread dependant
Rail car and facility constrains are being addressed.
Rapid expansion of unit train capacity on CN’s network
Connectivity to Brent markets on 3 coasts
Can’t beat single line connectivity
The J gets us around Chicago
CN’s is committed to being a supply chain enabler