CS B551: Decision Trees

CS B551: DECISION TREES

AGENDA

Decision trees Complexity Learning curves Combatting overfitting

Boosting

RECAP

Still in supervised setting with logical attributes

Find a representation of CONCEPT in the form:

CONCEPT(x) S(A,B, …)

where S(A,B,…) is a sentence built with the observable attributes, e.g.:

CONCEPT(x) A(x) (B(x) v C(x))

PREDICATE AS A DECISION TREE

The predicate CONCEPT(x) A(x) (B(x) v C(x)) can be represented by the following decision tree:

A?

B?

C?True

True

True

True

FalseTrue

False

FalseFalse

False

Example:A mushroom is poisonous iffit is yellow and small, or yellow, big and spotted• x is a mushroom• CONCEPT = POISONOUS• A = YELLOW• B = BIG• C = SPOTTED

PREDICATE AS A DECISION TREE

The predicate CONCEPT(x) A(x) (B(x) v C(x)) can be represented by the following decision tree:

A?

B?

C?True

True

True

True

FalseTrue

False

FalseFalse

False

Example:A mushroom is poisonous iffit is yellow and small, or yellow, big and spotted• x is a mushroom• CONCEPT = POISONOUS• A = YELLOW• B = BIG• C = SPOTTED• D = FUNNEL-CAP• E = BULKY

TRAINING SET

Ex. # A B C D E CONCEPT

1 False False True False True False

2 False True False False False False

3 False True True True True False

4 False False True False False False

5 False False False True True False

6 True False True False False True

7 True False False True False True

8 True False True False True True

9 True True True False True True

10 True True True True True True

11 True True False False False False

12 True True False False True False

13 True False True True True True

TrueTrueTrueTrueFalseTrue13

FalseTrueFalseFalseTrueTrue12

FalseFalseFalseFalseTrueTrue11

TrueTrueTrueTrueTrueTrue10

TrueTrueFalseTrueTrueTrue9

TrueTrueFalseTrueFalseTrue8

TrueFalseTrueFalseFalseTrue7

TrueFalseFalseTrueFalseTrue6

FalseTrueTrueFalseFalseFalse5

FalseFalseFalseTrueFalseFalse4

FalseTrueTrueTrueTrueFalse3

FalseFalseFalseFalseTrueFalse2

FalseTrueFalseTrueFalseFalse1

CONCEPTEDCBAEx. #

POSSIBLE DECISION TREE

D

CE

B

E

AA

A

T

F

F

FF

F

T

T

T

TT


D

CE

B

E

AA

A

T

F

F

FF

F

T

T

T

TT

CONCEPT (D(EvA))v(D(C(Bv(B((EA)v(EA))))))

A?

B?

C?True

True

True

True

FalseTrue

False

FalseFalse

False

CONCEPT A (B v C)


D

CE

B

E

AA

A

T

F

F

FF

F

T

T

T

TT

A?

B?

C?True

True

True

True

FalseTrue

False

FalseFalse

False

CONCEPT A (B v C)

KIS bias Build smallest decision tree

Computationally intractable problem greedy algorithm

CONCEPT (D(EvA))v(D(C(Bv(B((EA)v(EA))))))

TOP-DOWNINDUCTION OF A DT

DTL(D, Predicates)1. If all examples in D are positive then return True2. If all examples in D are negative then return False3. If Predicates is empty then return majority rule4. A error-minimizing predicate in Predicates5. Return the tree whose:

- root is A, - left branch is DTL(D+A,Predicates-A), - right branch is DTL(D-A,Predicates-A)

A

C

True

True

TrueB

True

TrueFalse

False

FalseFalse

False

COMMENTS

Widely used algorithm Greedy Robust to noise (incorrect examples) Not incremental

LEARNABLE CONCEPTS

Some simple concepts cannot be represented compactly in DTsParity(x) = X1 xor X2 xor … xor Xn

Majority(x) = 1 if most of Xi’s are 1, 0 otherwise

Exponential size in # of attributesNeed exponential # of examples to

learn exactlyThe ease of learning is dependent on

shrewdly (or luckily) chosen attributes that correlate with CONCEPT

MISCELLANEOUS ISSUES

Assessing performance: Training set and test set Learning curve

size of training set

% c

orr

ect

on

tes

t se

t 100

Typical learning curve




% c

orr

ect

on

tes

t se

t 100


Some concepts are unrealizable within a machine’s capacity



OverfittingRisk of using irrelevant

observable predicates togenerate an hypothesis

that agrees with all examples

in the training set


% c

orr

ect

on

tes

t se

t

100




Overfitting Tree pruning

Risk of using irrelevantobservable predicates togenerate an hypothesis


in the training set

Terminate recursion when# errors / information gain

is small




Terminate recursion when# errors / information gain

is small

Risk of using irrelevantobservable predicates togenerate an hypothesis


in the training setThe resulting decision tree + majority rule may not classify correctly all examples in the training set




Incorrect examples Missing data Multi-valued and continuous attributes

USING INFORMATION THEORY Rather than minimizing the probability of

error, minimize the expected number of questions needed to decide if an object x satisfies CONCEPT

Use the information-theoretic quantity known as information gain

Split on variable with highest information gain

ENTROPY / INFORMATION GAIN Entropy: encodes the quantity of uncertainty in a

random variable H(X) = -xVal(X) P(x) log P(x)

Properties H(X) = 0 if X is known, i.e. P(x)=1 for some value x H(X) > 0 if X is not known with certainty H(X) is maximal if P(X) is uniform distribution

Information gain: measures the reduction in uncertainty in X given knowledge of Y I(X,Y) = Ey[H(X) – H(X|Y)] =

y P(y) x [P(x|y) log P(x|y) – x P(x)log P(x)] Properties

Always nonnegative = 0 if X and Y are independent

If Y is a choice, maximizing IG = > minimizing Ey[H(X|Y)]

MAXIMIZING IG / MINIMIZING CONDITIONAL ENTROPY IN DECISION TREES

Ey[H(X|Y)] = y P(y) x P(x|y) log P(x|y)

Let n be # of examples Let n+,n- be # of examples on T/F branches of

Y Let p+,p- be accuracy on true/false branches

of Y P(Y) = (p+n++p-n-)/n P(correct|Y) = p+, P(correct|-Y) = p-

Ey[H(X|Y)] n+ [p+log p+ + (1-p+)log (1-p+)] + n- [p-log p- + (1-p-) log (1-p-)]

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ADDRESSING OVERFITTING / NOISE There may be few training examples that

match the path leading to a deep node in the decision tree More susceptible to choosing irrelevant/incorrect

attributes when sample is small Idea:

Make a statistical estimate of predictive power (which increases with larger samples)

Prune branches with low predictive power Chi-squared pruning

TOP-DOWN DT PRUNING Consider an inner node X that by itself (majority rule) predicts

p examples correctly and n examples incorrectly At k leaf nodes, number of of correct/incorrect examples are

p1/n1,…,pk/nk

Chi-squared test: Null hypothesis: example labels randomly chosen with distribution

p/(p+n) (X is irrelevant) Alternate hypothesis: examples not randomly chosen (X is relevant)

Let Z = Si (pi – pi’)2/pi’ + (ni – ni’)2/ni’ Where pi’ = pi(pi+ni)/(p+n), ni’ = ni(pi+ni)/(p+n) are the expected

number of true/false examples at leaf node i if the null hypothesis holds

Z is a statistic that is approximately drawn from the chi-squared distribution with k degrees of freedom

Look up p-Value of Z from a table, prune if p-Value > a for some a (usually ~.05)

CONTINUOUS ATTRIBUTES

Continuous attributes can be converted into logical ones via thresholds X => X<a

When considering splitting on X, pick the threshold a to minimize # of errors

7 7 6 5 6 5 4 5 4 3 4 5 4 5 6 7

APPLICATIONS OF DECISION TREE

Medical diagnostic / Drug design Evaluation of geological systems for

assessing gas and oil basins Early detection of problems (e.g., jamming)

during oil drilling operations Automatic generation of rules in expert

systems

HUMAN-READABILITY

DTs also have the advantage of being easily understood by humans

Legal requirement in many areas Loans & mortgages Health insurance Welfare

ENSEMBLE LEARNING (BOOSTING)

IDEA

It may be difficult to search for a single hypothesis that explains the data

Construct multiple hypotheses (ensemble), and combine their predictions

“Can a set of weak learners construct a single strong learner?” – Michael Kearns, 1988

MOTIVATION

5 classifiers with 60% accuracy On a new example, run them all, and pick the

prediction using majority voting

If errors are independent, new classifier has 94% accuracy! (In reality errors will not be independent, but we

hope they will be mostly uncorrelated)

BOOSTING

Weighted training set

Ex. # Weight A B C D E CONCEPT

1 w1 False False True False True False

2 w2 False True False False False False

3 w3 False True True True True False

4 w4 False False True False False False

5 w5 False False False True True False

6 w6 True False True False False True

7 w7 True False False True False True

8 w8 True False True False True True

9 w9 True True True False True True

10 w10 True True True True True True

11 w11 True True False False False False

12 w12 True True False False True False

13 w13 True False True True True True

BOOSTING

Start with uniform weights wi=1/N

Use learner 1 to generate hypothesis h1

Adjust weights to give higher importance to misclassified examples

Use learner 2 to generate hypothesis h2

… Weight hypotheses according to

performance, and return weighted majority

MUSHROOM EXAMPLE

“Decision stumps” - single attribute DT


1 1/13 False False True False True False

2 1/13 False True False False False False

3 1/13 False True True True True False

4 1/13 False False True False False False

5 1/13 False False False True True False

6 1/13 True False True False False True

7 1/13 True False False True False True

8 1/13 True False True False True True

9 1/13 True True True False True True

10 1/13 True True True True True True

11 1/13 True True False False False False

12 1/13 True True False False True False

13 1/13 True False True True True True

MUSHROOM EXAMPLE

Pick C first, learns CONCEPT = C















MUSHROOM EXAMPLE

Pick C first, learns CONCEPT = C















MUSHROOM EXAMPLE

Update weights


1 .125 False False True False True False

2 .056 False True False False False False

3 .125 False True True True True False

4 .125 False False True False False False

5 .056 False False False True True False

6 .056 True False True False False True

7 .125 True False False True False True

8 .056 True False True False True True

9 .056 True True True False True True

10 .056 True True True True True True

11 .056 True True False False False False

12 .056 True True False False True False

13 .056 True False True True True True

MUSHROOM EXAMPLE

Next try A, learn CONCEPT=A















MUSHROOM EXAMPLE

Next try A, learn CONCEPT=A















MUSHROOM EXAMPLE

Update weights


1 0.07 False False True False True False

2 0.03 False True False False False False

3 0.07 False True True True True False

4 0.07 False False True False False False

5 0.03 False False False True True False

6 0.03 True False True False False True

7 0.07 True False False True False True

8 0.03 True False True False True True

9 0.03 True True True False True True

10 0.03 True True True True True True

11 0.25 True True False False False False

12 0.25 True True False False True False

13 0.03 True False True True True True

MUSHROOM EXAMPLE

Next try E, learn CONCEPT=E















MUSHROOM EXAMPLE

Next try E, learn CONCEPT=E















MUSHROOM EXAMPLE

Update Weights…















MUSHROOM EXAMPLE

Final classifier, order C,A,E,D,B Weights on hypotheses determined by overall

error Weighted majority weights

A=2.1, B=0.9, C=0.8, D=1.4, E=0.09 100% accuracy on training set

BOOSTING STRATEGIES

Prior weighting strategy was the popular AdaBoost algorithm

see R&N pp. 667 Many other strategies Typically as the number of hypotheses

increases, accuracy increases as well Does this conflict with Occam’s razor?

ANNOUNCEMENTS

Next class: Neural networks & function learning R&N 18.6-7

HW3 graded, solutions online HW4 due today HW5 out today

Date post:	30-Dec-2015
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CS B551: Decision Trees

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