CTAP Project Area I-93 Community Technical
Assistance Program
OverviewOverview
Growth context
Growth consequences
How should we grow?
The premise and promise of CTAP
I-93 Secondary Impacts StudyI-93 Secondary Impacts Study
Population 40,626 additional
population in 29 communities (35,314 in 23 NH communities)
5% additional population overall– 7% in NH– 12% in smaller Towns
(< 10,000 population)0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
2000-2020 2000-2020
(NH Portion)
SecondaryGrowth
BackgroundGrowth
26%
84%
I-93 Secondary Impacts StudyI-93 Secondary Impacts Study
Employment 21,527 additional
jobs in 29 communities (15,952 in 23 NH communities)
5.5% additional growth overall– 6.8% in NH– 13% in smaller Towns
(< 10,000 population) 0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
2000-2020 2000-2020
(NH Portion)
SecondaryGrowth
BackgroundGrowth
17%
83%
I-93 Secondary Impacts StudyI-93 Secondary Impacts Study
Land Conversion 20,223 additional acres
in 29 communities (18,089 in 23 NH communities)
Larger increases in conversion in smaller towns (larger lot sizes)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2000-2020 2000-2020
(NH Portion)
SecondaryGrowth
BackgroundGrowth
27%
73%
Growth Segment – Background vs. Growth Segment – Background vs. SecondarySecondary
Base Growth(20%)
I-93 Induced
(7%)
Growth 2000-2020
(27%)
2000 Popl.(73%)
Projected Population in 2020:557,687
Base Growth:112,567
Secondary Growth:39,231
Summary – Secondary ImpactsSummary – Secondary Impacts
Existing(2000)
Growth 2000-2020 w/o I-93
Growth2000-2020 with I-93
Annual Growth (with I-93)
Population 373,000 101,376 136,690 6,830
Employment 158,300 67,265 83,217 4,160
Land (acres developed)
NA 46,698 64,156 3,208
Population Growth in CTAP CommunitiesPopulation Growth in CTAP Communities
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
-NB
2020
-B
Population TrendsPopulation Trends
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Census (1970-2000: 1.9%/yr.)
OEP Projections (2000-2025: 1.1%/yr.)
I-93 Induced Growth (2000-2020: 1.6%/yr.)
Ex-Urban Population Growth - CTAP Ex-Urban Population Growth - CTAP CommunitiesCommunities
Concord, Manch., Salem, Derry80%
All Others
20%
Concord Manch., Salem, Derry52%
All Others
48%
1940 2020
Population: 141,474 Population: 405,889
7X growth(168,112) 2X growth
(96,303)
Land Use - 1962Land Use - 1962
Land Use - 1974Land Use - 1974
Land Use - 1998Land Use - 1998
Land ConsumptionLand Consumption
Change in developed land, 1962 – 1998:– From 36,519 acres (7.9%) to 98,417 acres
(21.2%)– Increase of 61,898 acres, or 13.3% of the county
Average of 1750 acres of conversion per year. Average land ‘consumption’ per unit of
development increasing
Source: Forty Years of Land Use Change in Rockingham and Strafford Counties, Complex System Research Center and CICEET)
Developed Road FrontageDeveloped Road Frontage
Miles of developed road frontage:
Total Road Frontage
Developed Road Frontage
% Developed
1962 161.9 48.2 29.8%
1974 187.2 86.5 46.2%
1998 254.3 163.4 64.3%
Source: Forty Years of Land Use Change in Rockingham and Strafford Counties, Complex System Research Center and CICEET)
Impervious SurfaceImpervious Surface
Total impervious area values above approximately 5% are associated with impaired water quality
Residential Acres All Developed Acres
% Impervious
1962 59.2 310.4 1.7%
1974 119.4 470.6 2.6%
1998 295.2 807.5 4.5%
Source: Forty Years of Land Use Change in Rockingham and Strafford Counties, Complex System Research Center and CICEET)
Traffic Growth AcceleratesTraffic Growth Accelerates
Population vs. Traffic GrowthComparison of Growth Rates - 1980 to 2003
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Sta
rtin
g V
alu
e =
1
Population Growth
Traffic Growth
Linear (Traffic Growth)
Linear (Population Growth)
Land Use - 1962Land Use - 1962
Land Use - 1998Land Use - 1998
Implications of Existing Growth PatternImplications of Existing Growth Pattern
Land consumption Environment: air and water quality Travel demand & congestion Road infrastructure and maintenance Energy consumption Community design, character, ‘social capital’ Public health & wellness
Some Key Planning Principles for the FutureSome Key Planning Principles for the Future
Concentrate development to conserve land, and to maximize use/efficiency of infrastructure
Prevent or limit development in areas with high conservation value, and link those areas in regional networks
Move toward multi-density zoning model (rural towns), (Villages & town, mixed use centers/Conservation Zones/Density transfers)
Build on brownfields, not greenfields Utilize minimum impact development techniques and green
building design Preserve historic buildings and other cultural and community
assets Balance job growth with housing supply Encourage development that can be efficiently served by
pedestrian, bicycle and transit