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WISE M NEY
SHUBH NAVRATRAS25TH SEPTEMBER - 3RD OCTOBER 2014
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2014: Issue 442, Week: 29th September - 02nd OctoberA Weekly Update from SMC
(For private circulation only)
Contents
Equity 4-7
Derivatives 8-9
Commodity 10-13
Currency 14
IPO 15
Fixed Deposit 16
Mutual Fund 17-18
EDITORIAL STAFF
Editor Saurabh Jain
Executive Editor Jagannadham Thunuguntla
+Editorial Team
Dr. R.P. Singh Nitin Murarka
Vandana Bharti Sandeep Joon
Dinesh Joshi Vineet Sood
Shitij Gandhi Dhirender Singh Bisht
Subhranil Dey Parminder Chauhan
Ajay Lakra Mudit Goyal
Content Editor Kamla Devi
Graphic Designer Pramod Chhimwal
Research Executive Sonia Bamba
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lobal stock markets are seen tiring after posting decent gains during the
year. Investors are also seen skeptical while investing and are trying to Ggauge the stock market rally with the actual economic health of the world
economy. As regards to stock market performance so far so good is largely the
outcome of abundant liquidity. Falling crude prices and metal prices owing to
lower demand and rise in supplies reflects some kind of anomaly between what
the stock markets are stating and the actual economic situation of the global
economies. End of bond purchase program by U.S. Fed going in end of the
October this year and interest rate hike in the next calendar year is another
concern moving around. Agencies like Goldman Sachs reduced the Chinese
economy growth projections for 2015 to 7.1% from 7.6% and recently Chinese
finance minister made a statement that no major policy adjustments would be
done dampening hopes for some kind of stimulus to sour sagging growth in the
economy. In Europe growth is weakening as core economies like Germany is
manufacturing activity growth declining to 15 months low together with decline
in confidence sanctions on trade by Russia.
Back at home, Supreme Court has cancelled all 214 coal blocks out of 218
awarded since 1993 except four that were allocated to ultra mega power project
and central government companies in line with the various options given by the
central government in its affidavit to the court. To get uninterrupted coal
supplies, court allowed miners six months time to continue with the mining and
from there onwards Coal India will take over mining operations till government
comes out with a fresh policy. The outcome came as a negative surprise in the
markets as fate of investments done so far in the coal blocks lacks clarity.
Moreover there is also a sense of uncertainty of the recovery of loans given by the
banks for the operations. Geopolitical tensions as regards to U.S. air strikes in
Syria and Chinese army activity on the borders are some of the other noted
concerns. In the fourth bi-monthly monetary policy scheduled on Tuesday,
September 30, 2014, RBI is widely expected to keep status-quo on the interest
rates and investors would try to assess what the Governor Raghuram Rajan feel
about the health of domestic and global economy.
On the commodities front, global tensions and a strong U.S. dollar drove big
moves in commodities last week. Escalating geopolitical tensions added premium
in gold and crude prices. Silver traded silently. Gold may move in the range of
26200-27700 in MCX and White metal silver can hover in the range of 38000-42000
this week. In India, jewelers and bullion dealers are expecting demand to pick up
in the run up to the festivals of Dusshera and Diwali. Crude oil may continue its
last week recovery as geopolitical tensions may give prices underlying support. It
is a time of ambiguity in commodities market. In such conditions some important
events and data scheduled this week can help investors while trading into
commodities. Some of events to be closely watched are German CPI, German
Unemployment Change, and unemployment rate, Euro-Zone Consumer Price
Index Estimate and GDP of Canada, CPI, ISM Manufacturing, Change in Non-farm
Payrolls, unemployment Rate and ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite of US,
Manufacturing PMI of China etc.
From The Desk Of Editor
(Saurabh Jain)
CURRENCY
Currency Table
Currency Pair Open High Low Close
USD/INR 60.98 61.42 60.82 61.35
EUR/INR 78.50 78.78 77.64 78.03
GBP/INR 99.45 100.22 99.27 100.00
JPY/INR 56.00 56.40 55.79 56.19
(Source: FX Central, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST)
News Flows of last week
24th Sep Sales of new U.S. single-family homes surged in August to their highest level in more than six years,
25th Sep Rupee hits 1-1/2 month low on broad dollar gains
25th Sep The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose less than expected last week
25th Sep Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods in August posted their biggest drop on record
25th Sep Lending to euro zone households and companies contracted for the 28th month in a row in August
25th Sep New orders for capital goods by U.S. businesses rebounded in August,
EUR/INR (OCT) contract closed at 78.40 on 25th September'14. The contract made its high of `79.22 on 23rd September'14 and a low of `78.00 on 23rd September'14 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at ̀ 79.15.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 41.36. One can sell below 78.20 for a target of 77.00 with the stop loss of 78.75
`
JPY/INR (OCT) contract closed at 56.55 on 25th September'14. The contract made its high of 56.74 on 23rd September'14 and a low of `55.58 on 23rd September'14 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at ̀ 56.98.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.36. One can sell around 57.25 for a target of 56.00 with the stop loss of 57.80
Market Stance
The Indian Rupee traded to a seven week low and depreciated sharply in the
week gone by. The currency depreciated after Supreme Court, scrapped all
but four of 218 coal blocks allocated by the government in past two decades
which raised the concerns of increasing imports thereby widening the trade
and current account deficit of the country. Further, decline in domestic
market sentiments along with dollar demand from importers exerted
downside pressure on the currency. The rupee also get hammered as upbeat
US home sales data fuelled further expectations for an early rate hike by the
Federal Reserve. In overseas market, euro fell to an almost two year low
against a dollar that is on track for its longest winning streak since 1970's as
investors anticipate that European and U.S monetary policy will head in
opposite direction.
EUR/INR
USD/INR (OCT) contract closed at `61.75 on 25th September'14. The contract made its high of `61.81 on 25th September'14 and a low of `61.22 on 22nd September'14 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at ̀ 61.48.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 63.12. One can sell belowe 61.05 for a target of 60.00 with the stop loss of 61.65.
GBP/INR (OCT) contract closed at 100.57 on 25th September'14. The contract made its high of 100.77 on 24th September'14 and a low of `99.82 on 23rd September'14 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at ̀ 100.28.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 54.37. One can sell below 99.90 for a target of 98.50 with the stop loss of 100.60.
`
USD/INRTechnical Recommendation
GBP/INR JPY/INR
Economic gauge for the next week
Date Currency Event PREVIOUS
29th Sept EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) 0.00%
29th Sept EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) 0.80%
30th Sept EUR EUR German Unemployment Change 2K
30th Sept EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. 6.70%
30th Sept EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) 0.90%
30th Sept EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) 0.40%
30th Sept USD Consumer Confidence 92.4
01st Oct USD ISM Manufacturing 59
02nd Oct EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision 0.05%
03rd Oct USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls 142K
03rd Oct USD Unemployment Rate 6.10%
03rd Oct USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite 59.6
14
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Mr. Anurag Bansal (Director, SMC Group) addressing the audience during the “Investor Awareness Seminar” organized by SMC at Hotel A, Ludhiana.
Mr. Subhash C Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Group) & Mr. D K Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Real Estate Advisors) sharing their thoughts during
National Conference on “Real Estate & Infrastructure Investment Trusts (REITs)” organized by ASSOCHAM at Hotel Taj Mansingh, New Delhi.