Overview: Current Population Projections and Trends
10,000 BC to 2000 AD – Log Scale Population
2014: 7,243,784,0002014 will add 81 Million
• One Day = 221,912• One Hour = 9,246• One Minute = 154
Instant Replacement: Increments, Total Increase and Total Global Population
Population Momentum!
A history of high fertility has resulted in a high proportion of women in the reproductive ages, and these ensure high crude birth rates long after the
age-specific rates have dropped.
UN Variants – High, Median, Instant Replacement & Low
16.6 Billion
10.8 Billion
6.7 Billion
3 Fertility Assumptions Informing Three Major Population Variants
End of Century High Fertility = 2.47
End of Century Medium Fertility = 1.99
End of Century Low Fertility = 1.51
High Variant Population: Total, Total Addition and Annual Increments
+ 9.4 Billion
Median Variant Population: Total, Total Addition and Annual Increments
6.7 Billion
Low Variant Population: Total, Total Addition and Annual Increments
Peak Addition of 1.2 Billion
Low Variant TFR with Total Population Curve; First “Reduction” at 2090
Median Variant Regional Population Curves
5.16 Billion
4.18 Billion
Asia Peak in 2054
4.71 Billion
1.13 Billion
Low Variant Regional Population Curves
4.63 Billion
2.82 Billion
Asia Peaks in 2036
Africa Peaks in 2097
Other Regions: Median Vs. Low Population
+/-249 M
+/-309 M
+/-175 M
+/-23 M
Covered 4 Variant Projections from the UN’s World Population Prospects 2012 Revision
1. Instant Replacement2. High Fertility3. Median Fertility4. Low Fertility
Compared and Contrasted Regional Growth
1. Median vs Low Population Projections
Top 15 Low Variant Growers
16 -30 Low Variant Growers Contribution to Global Growth
“Top 30” Shrinkers to 2049, Low Variant
1 to 15 16 to 30
Represents 90% of Total Global Consolidation
UN Variants – High, Median, Low & Constant Fertility
High Variant Annual Increments, TFR Curve and Growth Rate
Median Variant Annual Increments, TFR Curve and Growth Rate
Low Variant Annual Increments, TFR Curve and Growth Rate
Growth stops in 2049, after adding 1.2 billion.
• 146 Countries Add Appx. 1.5 billion.
• 77 Countries Shrinking by a Total of Appx. 300 million.
• (Net Gain of 1.2 Billion)
“Top 15” Growers to 2049, Low Variant= Contribution to Global
= % In-Country Increase
Top 30 Absolute Growers by 2049, Low Variant
Top 30 Absolute Shrinkers by 2049, Low Variant