Date post: | 29-Mar-2015 |
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Current Pricing Projections
- NYMEX futures currently $12.50-$13.50
- NYMEX futures do not fall below $10.97 through March 2010
- Current forecasts have $14.00+ from July through January
- Continued price volatility and price speculation
- Limited current benefit from hedging and storage injections
Upside Price Concerns
- Lower LNG imports and world supply competition
- Relatively low storage inventory
- Increasing exports to Mexico, lower imports from Canada
Potential Downside Factors
- Mild summer, moderate electric generation usage
- Continued economic slowdown
- No hurricanes in Gulf
Regulatory Actions
- LIHEAP customer eligibility and sign up
- Budget billing promotion (late for enrollment)
- Increased conservation information to customers
- Caution in TPS initiatives
- 20% to 30% Y/Y increases being filed
- Accelerated mid year increases
Long-Term Considerations
- Supply portfolio diversification, Gulf Coast, LNG imports, REX supply
- Production area vs. Market Area Storage
- Modified LDC hedging strategies