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Current situation of AIM/Trend, Current situation of AIM/Trend, AIM/AIM/CGE(AsiaCGE(Asia) )
Junichi Fujino
The 8th AIM International Workshop; 13-15, March 2003National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
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• AIM/Trend: econometric method– Regression methods– AP 42 countries, year of 2032– Grasp overview of country (regional)-level
economic, energy, environmental indicators for development of AIM/CGE(Asia)
• AIM/CGE(Asia): top-down economy model– Computer general equilibrium model– AP 17 countries, year of 2100– Develop socio-economic scenarios based on
economic theory for AIM/Trend, AIM/Enduse, AIM/Material
Role of AIM/Trend and Role of AIM/Trend and AIM/AIM/CGE(AsiaCGE(Asia))
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• AIM/Trend(world)– Global 14 regions, year of 2050
• AIM/Trend/Biomass– biomass demand
Topics of AIM/TrendTopics of AIM/Trend
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AIM/Trend (world)AIM/Trend (world)JPN JapanOCN Australia and New ZealandCHN ChinaIND IndiaEAA East AsiaSEA South East Asia and OceaniaSOA Other South AsiaUSA USACAN CanadaEUR OECD Europe
Transition Economies EEU CIS and Eastern EuropeMEA Middle EastLAM Latin AmericaAFR Africa
Asia
Other Developing
Other OECD
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GDP scenarioGDP scenario
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GD
P (B
il.U
S$)
AFRLAMMEAEEUEURCANUSASOASEAEAAINDCHNOCNJPN
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COCO22 emissionsemissions
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO
2 em
issi
ons (
Mt-C
)
AFRLAMMEAEEUEURCANUSASOASEAEAAINDCHNOCNJPN
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AIM/Trend/Biomass –Food-
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Vegetable food demand trajectory
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
GDP per capita (1000US$/cap)
Veg
etab
le fo
od (c
al/c
ap/d
ay) AUS
JPNNZLCHNPRKVNMBGDIDNINDKORLKAMMRMYSNPLPAKPHLTHA
AUS,NZL
JPN
KOR
MYSTHAPHL
CHN,IDNIND
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Meat demand trajectory
0200400600800
1000120014001600
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
GDP per capita (1000US$/cap)
Mea
t with
out f
ish
(cal
/cap
/day
)
AUSJPNNZLCHNPRKVNMBGDIDNINDKORLKAMMRMYSNPLPAKPHLTHA
JPN
AUSNZL
KOR
MYSCHN
THA
IDN
IND
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AIM/CGE(ASIA)AIM/CGE(ASIA)• Type: Top-down, CGE, recursive• Program:GTAP-EG/GAMS/MPSGE• Database:GTAP ver.5(1997), IEA and so
on…• Target Year: 2030/2100• Target Region: 26 regions(17 AP countries)• Target Sector: 24 sectors
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Economic Top-down: AIM/CGE(Asia)
AUS,NZL,CHN,HKG,JPN,KOR,TWN,IDN,MYS,PHL,SGP,THA,VNMBGD,IND,LKA,
Region(26)
CAN,USA,WEU,EEU,FSU,MEA,LAM,AFR,
Sector(24)* EnergyOILCOLGASP_C: Oil productsELY: Electricity
* AgricultureFPR: FoodLUM: WoodAGR: Agricultural
* Energy IntensiveI_S: Iron and steelCRP: ChemicalPPP: Pulp and paperNMM: Non-metalOMN: Mining
* Other industryNFM, TRN, OME,LUM, CNS, TWL, OMF* Other sectorATP, T_TSER, DWECGD
Factor(5)CapitalLaborSkilled LaborResourceLand
ASI,
NPL, PAK, BTN, MDV
ROW
Include other Asia-Pacific countries
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Structure of AIM/CGE (Asia)
production and service
sector
householdgovernment
abroad
market
producedgoods and service
capitallabor
intermediate,energy,
capital, labor
importexportfinal
demand
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Modification of energy supply
• Fossil fuel resource• Renewable energy• Energy conversion (electricity)• Monetary balance and physical balance
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Fossil fuel productioncrude oil, natural gas, coal production
Intermediateproducts
capital labor resource
05 0
1 0 01 5 02 0 02 5 03 0 03 5 04 0 0
0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0
c ru d e o i l r e s o u rc e (M to e )
pro
duc
tion
cost
($/to
e)
C h in a In d ia M a la y s ia In d o n e s ia A u s t r a l ia
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Bioenergy productionplantation bioenergy
Intermediateproducts
capital labor land
residue bioenergy
Intermediateproducts
capital labor
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Electricity generation (hydro power)electricity
Intermediateproducts
capital labor resource
012345678
0 5 0 0 1 ,0 0 0 1 ,5 0 0 2 ,0 0 0 2 ,5 0 0
re s o u rc e (T W h / y r )
cost
(cent/
kWh)
C h in a In d ia M a la y s ia N e p a l
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Reconciliation Module for Reconciliation Module for AIM/AIM/CGE(AsiaCGE(Asia) model) model
Database
IEA; energy balanceprice
ReconciledDatasetfor CGE
GTAP ver.5
ReconciliationModule
Data ProcessModule
AIM/CGE(Asia)
ReconciledDatasetfor CGE
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Comparison between GTAP and IEA(Japan, Gas)
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
GA
SELY
OIL
P_C I_S
CR
PN
FM
NM
TR
NO
ME
OM
NFP
RP
PP
LU
MC
NS
TW
LA
GR
ATP
T_T
SER
CG
D
GTA
P(1
0bi
l$)
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
IEA
(EJ)
GTAP IEA
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Comparison between GTAP and IEA(Japan, Electricity)
0.01
0.1
1
10
GA
SELY
CO
LI_S
CR
PN
FM
NM
MTR
NO
ME
OM
NFP
RP
PP
LU
MC
NS
TW
LA
GR
ATP
T_T
SER
GTA
P(1
0bi
l$)
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
IEA
(TW
h)
GTAP IEA
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AIM(China)
AIM(ASEAN)
AIM(Other Asia)
AIM(India)
AIM/CGE/ASIA(Asia17 regions )
AIM(Rest of the World)
AIM/AIM/CGE(AsiaCGE(Asia) and ) and AIM(countryAIM(country))
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Next stepsNext steps• AIM/Trend
– Development of biomass part, non-CO2 gas part– More user-friendly interface
• AIM/CGE(Asia)Develop 1st version– Collecting and modifying energy data– Monetary balance and physical balance– Including economic characteristics (ex. failure of
market, unemployment)– Technology description (ex. induced technology)