CSVA 2012 Conference CSVA 2012 Conference Calgary Alberta CanadaCalgary Alberta CanadaCalgary, Alberta, CanadaCalgary, Alberta, Canada
Greg Greg Brink, CVS, PMIBrink, CVS, PMI‐‐RMP, PMP, CCE/ARMP, PMP, CCE/A
Background InformationFunction Driven Risk Management (FDRM) g ( )ProcessRisk IdentificationRisk AnalysisRisk Response PlanningRisk Monitoring and Control
ConclusionsQ iQuestions
Wi DOT M WisDOT Mega ProjectEff ti l Effectively a program consisting of multiple projects p j17 miles from 2009‐2014 in Winnebago CCounty14 miles from 2010‐2017 in Brown County2017 in Brown County
Many challenges creating uncertainty Coordinating Multiple Designs▪ Consultant design teams with multiple subcontractors
ROW Acquisition and Utility RelocationConstruction StagingManagement of TrafficContext Sensitive DesignEstimate Uncertainty
Id if Ri k Identify Risk Categories
(RBS)
Brainstorm Qualify / Risks by Category
Qualify / Prioritize Risk
Populate Risk Register
Risk Critical Functions
Function 1
Ri k
Function 2
Ri k
Function 3
Ri k • Risk 1• Risk 2• Risk 3
• Risk 1• Risk 2• Risk 3
• Risk 1• Risk 2• Risk 3• Risk 3 • Risk 3 • Risk 3
i iTeam Brainstorming
Function Analysis:Focuses effort in the right directionFacilitates the prioritization of risksFacilitates management of project delivery
Identify Response Strategies
D l A ti S d Ri k Develop Action Plans
Secondary Risk Analysis
Identify Responsibilities Responsibilities & Milestones
Risk Object Identification
Brainstorming of Risk Response Strategies by Function
Secondary Risk Analysis
Function
Evaluation of Risk Response
Development of Action Plans for Ri k R Response
StrategiesRisk Response Strategies
Avoid
Threat Response Function
Response Strategy
Accept
Mitigate
T f
VerbTransfer
Risk Description
Object of Risk Noun
Response Strategy Mitigatep gy g
P ibilit f Possibility of encountering conflicts with TransCanadian
Pipeline
Pipeline Conflicts
Response Strategy Avoidp gy
P ibilit f Possibility of encountering conflicts with TransCanadian
Pipeline
Pipeline Conflicts
E l it
Opportunity Response Function
Response Strategy
Exploit
Enhance
ShareVerb
Risk Description
Object of Risk Noun
Response Strategy Exploitp gy p
There is the opportunity There is the opportunity to realize cost savings
resulting from re‐estimation of
quantities
Estimate
quantities
Risk Response Functions
Function 1 Function 2 Function 3
• Strategy 1• Strategy 2• Strategy 3
• Strategy 1• Strategy 2• Strategy 3
• Strategy 1• Strategy 2• Strategy 3gy 3 gy 3 gy 3
i iTeam Brainstorming
Next steps:Next steps:Prioritize risk response strategiesD l d t il d ti lDevelop detailed action plansPerform secondary risk analysis as needed
Risk Response StrategiesRisk Response Action Plans
Ri k D i ti
L M H EV L M H EV1-48 Utility
Conflict Definition
Threat
80% $ 0.03 $ 0.05 $ 0.08 $ 0.04 0.00 1.00 2.00 0.80
Risk Description
Risk ID Risk Name Type Description ProbabilityCost Schedule
There is confusion on the Domino Rd. project in terms of defining what a conflict is. Central office is saying that anything below the 18" subgrade is a conflict. This could result in a schedule delay as a result of disagreements between the contractors and the department.
L M H EV L M H EV
Risk Response Action Plan
Risk Response Strategies Probability
Cost Schedule
Primary Strategies:1. Settle on a definition now by getting key players involved2. Hold consensus building meeting to agree on definition
50% $ 0.03 $ 0.05 $ 0.08 $ 0.03 0.00 0.50 1.00 0.25
3. Add language to contracts to add clarity and specify4. On the design side, to avoid risk to DOT, follow the TRANS 220 processFallback Strategies:5. Pay for it6. Perform an early location through 3D layout of existing utilities (expensive)
Risk Response Action Plan Risk Owner Risk Review Milestone / FrequencyPrimary1. Setup meeting with key players to discuss and make final decision on the defention of a conflict. Prior to the meeting have Key playermeeting by end of Augustp g y p y gBobby Johnson talk to his chief counter parts to get input on this issue statewide. Identify who key player is. Who would be the DOT decision maker/voice in conflict scenario between Road Builders and DOT?2. Same as 1.3. Based on outcome for the conflict definition clarify in specs how to address. Make sure utilities are clear on what the requirments are for conflicts and ensure they convey that into future work plans. Clarify contractor vs. DOT vs utilty risk/responsability if issues are realized in the field. Cleary explain what the differences in risk/responsabilty are when trans 220 isn't followed to the tee.4. Continue tracking detailed shedules but determine what projects are at risk for not following trans 220. Then determine where to move those projects to ensure trans 220 is followed
Sally JonesKey player meeting by end of August 2011. Spec language develped prior
to December 1st PS&E.
Base Cost ImpactsNeed to budget contingency to address additional costs if DOT takes risk of incurring all costs.
No real design costs but could incure constrution delays if contractor is unclear on how to address "a conflict" and refuses to proceed.
where to move those projects to ensure trans 220 is followed.Fallback:5. Continue business as usual but take on the risk that DOT may incure delay costs and budget for those costs.6. Determine critical areas where multiple conficts are anticipated. Have detaild utiltiy identification/location done so it is clear where and how deep the facilities are to cleary identify possible conflicts in design.
Base Schedule Impacts
Function Analysis:Anchors brainstorming of response strategies to functionsIncreases quantity and quality of response
istrategiesProvides for a more robust exploration of
l tisolutions
Compile Results of Risk Analysis &
Workshop
Compile Risk Establish & E Ri k Compile Risk
Management Plan
Execute Risk Monitoring and Control Plan
Produce ReportProduce Report
Function Analysis Enhances Risk Management:Facilitates communicationImproves understanding of projectFocuses effort on critical functions and risksImproves quantity and quality of response strategiesResults in robust and more detailed action plans with multiple contingencies
The Best Value results when the necessary yfunctions to meet the required performance at the lowest overall cost and least amount of delivery time are performed in the least uncertain way. yPerformance, Cost and Schedule are UncertainPerformance includes requirements and Performance includes requirements and attributesRisk in costs and durations are comprised of pestimating risk and event risk