Cement and Clinker Price
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Highlights from the “Global
Quicklime, Hydrated and
Slaked Lime Market Report”
Webinar presentation
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November 3, 2016
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Presenters
3
Ana AlmeidaAnalyst
M:+351 913765688
Ana is an analyst for CW Research quantitative and
qualitative analyses
Focuses on primary and secondary research for key reports,
including the cement and
clinker price assessments
Raluca CercelConsulting Analyst
M:+351 913366980
Senior analyst with CW Group’s European team,
responsible for various on-going research activities in the
building materials and heavy industrial sectors
Focuses on qualitative and quantitative analysis including
the company’s cement sector, global market price
assessments and market intelligence activity.
Client Confidential Information
Agenda
Introduction to CW Group
Global Quicklime, Hydrated and Slaked Lime Report
− Methodology and Scope
− Demand drivers
− Industry structure
− Global, regional and segmented consumption by industry
− Lime pricing and market size in USD
Closing remarks
4
Client Confidential Information
5
About the CW Group
CEMENT, BUILDING
MATERIALS &
CONSTRUCTION
STEEL, METALS &
MINING
CHEMICALS DRY BULK CARGO,
PORTS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE
POWER, ENERGY
AND SOLID FUELS
Seasoned expertsBusiness &
technicalNetwork & access Proprietary data
STRATEGY AND M&A
ADVISORYBUSINESS DECISION
SUPPORTMEDIA & MEETINGS
Strategic advisory
Management consulting
M&A advice
Transaction support
Due diligence
Syndicated market /
industry study reports
Reference forecasts
Data and chart-books
Commodity price
assessments
Market reporting services
Newsletters
Online data access
Publications
Meetings
Advisory Research Media
Client Confidential Information
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Global Quicklime, Hydrated and Slaked Lime
Report
Client Confidential Information
Report overview: Global Quicklime, Slaked Lime And Hydraulic Lime
Market
7
MAIN CONTENT
Global lime production by type and region (historic
and outlook)
Global market value (historic and outlook)
End-user consumption segmentation (historic and
outlook)
Global consumption and regional shares (historic
and outlook)
Lime per capita consumption (historic and outlook)
Formal, captive and informal production (historic and
outlook)
Lime consumption drivers
Technology considerations
Supply chain
Challenges and opportunities for lime producers
Country profiles
Company profiles
For more details visit: http://www.cwgrp.com/research/research-
products/product/111-global-quicklime,-slaked-lime-and-hydraulic-lime-market-
report-forecast-to-2021
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Our industry support doesn’t end with the report – our advisory team
works with clients to develop strategies, investment assessments etc
In-depth analysis of historical and future lime market size in
tonnage and USD at the global, regional and country level
(Australia, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia,
South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, UAE, Ukraine, US)
– Country coverage further customizable for our clients
This report is a starting point of discussion, CW Advisory helps
formulate bets strategies, details customer understanding and
segments once you have the report foundations understood
We have worked with leading lime companies in developing
market entry strategies, forecasts, feasibility studies, M&A
support, due diligence, strategic advisory, management
consulting, operations consulting
– Learn more about CW Advisory’s consulting experiences
and capabilities at http://www.cwgrp.com/advisory/
8
CW Research
(the report)
CW Advisory
(developing
strategies,
investments
etc.)
Client Confidential Information
The report was developed by…
Primary research: extensive interviews with key industry
stakeholders in main markets, companies and
associations
Secondary research: bottom-up approach
The report build on the CW Group’s industry-leading and
proprietary databases and extensive market intelligence
platform
9
Client Confidential Information
Model map relies on a bottom-up approach and on primary
interviews
10
End-user segments historical
productionLime usage per ton of commodity
Steel
Civil
construction
Road
construction
FGD
Agriculture
Petrochemicals
Sugar cane
Metallurgy and
ore
Aluminum
Paper and pulp
Other
Historical lime
consumption by
end-user segment
Lime consumption
outlook by end-
user segment
End-user
segments outlook
Primary interviews
and secondary
research
Lime pricingLime usage ratios
by type of lime
Global, regional and
country-wise market size in
USD of lime industry
Global, regional and
country-wise market size
of lime industry by type
Client Confidential Information
Breadth of lime application spans from industrial to environmental
usages
11
Steel
Paper and pulpSugar cane refining
Agriculture
Oil Metallurgy and ore
Alumina Construction Flue gas desulfurization
Other
Lime used as a flux to
remove impurities
(silica, phosphorus,
sulfur) in refining steel
Hydrated lime to raise
pH levels and to react
with the impurities in
the sugar cane juice
Lime used as a
causticizing agent in
the sulfate process,
sulfite process,
bleaching and
neutralizing process
Used to control
density (dolomite
lime), to control pH
and viscosity
Lime used to adjust
pH in soils
Also reduces toxic
levels of manganese,
iron and aluminum
Lime used to refine
and condition metal
ores and non-ferrous
metals such as
copper, zinc, nickel
and silver
Lime is used to
precipitate impurities
and regenerate
caustic
Used to manufacture
mortars, renders and
plasters, fiber cement,
sand lime bricks,
insulation materials,
building restauration,
paint, asphalt roofing,
AAC bricks, ceramics
Used for dry, wet and
semi-wet processes to
neutralize acid gases
Lime consumption
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…all of which will see distinct growth rates during the next five years
12
CAGR of end-user segments 2016E to 2021F
Steel
Civil
construc-
tion
Aluminum FGDAgricultur
e
Road
construc-
tion
Paper and
pulp
Sugar
cane
Metallurgy
and oreOil
China
Asia ex-
China
Europe &
CIS
Americas
Africa
Middle East
CAGR 2016-2021
High Medium Low
Client Confidential Information
Kiln sizes usually range around
600 to 1,000 tons per day
Most common in China, India,
Russia
Commercial lime production captures more than 50% of the market
13
Percentage of total formal, captive and informal lime production 2010-2016E
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
Formal production Captive production
Informal production
Kiln sizes usually range from 300
to 600 tons per day
Notable companies: Lhoist,
Carmeuse, Graymont, Calidra
and Nordkalk
Most common in China and India
Client Confidential Information
Currently, global lime consumption is ~350 million tons
14
Lime production by type of lime 2010-2021F (mn tons)
400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Quicklime Hydrating Slaked
+ ++ + - - - 0 + ++ + +
Yo
Y %
ch
an
ge
In terms on lime production by type of lime, most of the lime manufactured is sold as quicklime
(historically around 70-75% of total lime production)
Many quicklime buyers slake the lime individually (particularly in developing countries) for
construction purposes
Nevertheless, hydrating the lime is a more complicated process than slaking, hence manufacturers
produce hydrating lime in-house and then sell it to various end user segments
Client Confidential Information
Developing markets will see the fastest lime consumption growth
rates in the next five years
15
Asia Pacific,
Europe & CIS
Americas
Middle East
Africa
-6%
0%
6%
AsiaPacific
Europeand CIS
Americas MiddleEast
Africa
10-'15 16-'21
Asia Pacific
Europe &
CIS
Americas
Middle East
Africa
Vietnam and Malaysia are the largest
lime exporters in the region (except
for China) given that they benefit
from high quality limestone reserves
In Europe & CIS, Russia’s steel and
aluminum industry are the largest
lime consumers
The US is both the second largest
lime market in the world, as well as
the largest one in the Americas,
In the Middle East, Oman and the
UAE are the largest lime producers,
benefiting from high quality limestone
reserves
Demand is largely concentrated in
the South of the continent due to
consumption coming from the mining
and metallurgy sector
Regional lime consumption (%)
Regional lime consumption CAGR (%)
Client Confidential Information
FGD share has grown to 20% of global ex-China consumption
16
End-user lime consumption segmentation
Global ex-
China
China
Steel
FGD
Aluminum
Agriculture
Civil construction
Oil
Road construction
Other
Sugar cane
Paper and pulp
Metallurgy and ore
2010 2016
Client Confidential Information
At the global level, steel and civil construction applications will be the
largest lime consumers
17
Steel Civil construction Aluminum FGDAgricul
ture
Road
const
r.Other
China
Asia ex-
China
Europe &
CIS
Americas
AfricaMiddle East
End-user lime consumption segmentation 2021
Client Confidential Information
Ex-work prices range from US$50 to US$ 120 per ton of lime
18
Ex-works quicklime average price 2016E (USD/t)
$0
$120
Kiln technology
Fuel adaptability
Fuel cost and fuel options
Level of plant operations automation
Raw material availability and quality
Regulatory framework (particularly
environmental related ones)
Stability of electricity supply
Ex-works
pricing
dependent on
Client Confidential Information
In our base scenario, the global market will reach ~$22 billion by
2021
19
Global market size (bn USD)
xxxxxx
When looking at the future market size of the
market at the global level, we believe the market
will reach close to USD 22 billion in our base case
scenario
China, representing half the global market, will
experience lower growth
-4%
0%
4%$25
2016E 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Global market size YoY % change
China lime market size 2016E and 2021F (bn USD)
$9
$12
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Glo
ba
l m
ark
et siz
e (
US
D b
n)
Yo
Y %
ch
an
ge
Client Confidential Information
Closing remarks
At the global level, the crude steel manufacturing sector makes for the largest lime consuming
segment with ~40% of the total lime consumed in 2016
– The contraction of the global steel sector, and in particular the decreased steel production in China (the
largest lime consumer sector in the world), have led to weaker lime volumes since 2015
Increased FGD applications (deriving from more stringent environmental norms) have led to
consumption of lime from the sector to become a key segment
20
Challenges Opportunities
Asia-Pacific
Europe &
CIS
Americas
Africa
Middle East
• Informal lime production captures a significant part of lime demand for low quality lime
• Increasingly strict environmental norms
• Emission regulations, as well as opposition from local communities
• Unreliable electricity supply make production more costly than in other regions
• Difficulty in obtaining government approvals for limestone quarrying and kiln operating
• Growing popularity of lime usage for currently uncommon segments
• Lower prices of lime would encourage increased demand from the construction sector over cement demand
• Growing agriculture and sugar cane sectors in Brazil
• Lime manufactured in the region will soon find applications that are currently not common for developing markets
• Benefit from almost zero captive lime production
About CW ResearchCW Research is a leader in syndicated and data-driven market research solutions. The company offers independent
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For more information: research.cwgrp.com.
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