CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 1 CWG COA Program Review Panel #7 Describing the State of the Climate...

CWG Review April 11-13, 20071

CWG COA Program Review

Panel #7 Describing the

State of the Climate (including data assimilation)

and Monitoring

Panel Moderator: Tony BusalacchiChair: Jay Lawrimore

April 12, 2007


Outline

Goal of this effort

What is guiding this effort– Essential Climate Variables

Accomplishments of the past 5 years– And what we are providing now

Gaps and efforts to address them


Goal:

To monitor, analyze, and report on atmosphere, ocean, and land surface conditions from the global to local scale by combining current and historical data to enhance the scientific understanding of the Earth’s varying and changing climate

State of the Climate


Annual State of the Climate Report

• 130+ page peer-reviewed journal article published in the June issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society• Written in cooperation with numerous national and

international institutions in 33 countries including:

– NOAA’s CPC and ESRL

– UK and Australia Bureau of Meteorology– South African Weather Service– National Climate Centre, Beijing, China

• Report includes summaries of:– Global Climate (Temperature, Hydrologic Cycle

Trace Gases, Winds, Teleconnection Patterns)– The Tropics (ENSO, Tropical Cyclone Basins)– The Poles, Global Oceans, Regional Conditions


What is Guiding These Efforts

Essential Climate Variables– 2nd Report on the Adequacy of Global Observing

Systems for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC established a list of 42 Essential Climate Variables (ECV)

– Focus is on increasing the number of ECVs monitored and reported on an operational basis

Atmosphere, Surface (6) and Upper Air (5) Atmospheric Composition (10) Ocean, Surface (8) and Sub-surface (7) Terrestrial (6)


Essential Climate Variables

Essential atmospheric variables6 surface measurements Air temperature Precipitation Air pressure Surface radiation budget Wind speed and direction Water vapor5 upper air measurements Earth radiation budget (incl. solar irradiance) Upper-air temperature (incl. MSU radiances) Wind speed and direction Water vapor Cloud properties10 Atmospheric composition measurements Carbon dioxide Methane Ozone [Other long-lived greenhouse gases]: Nitrous oxide Chlorofluorocarbons Hydrochlorofluorocarbons Hydrofluorocarbons Sulphur hexaflurorides Perfluorocarbons Aerosol properties

Essential ocean variables8 surface measurements Sea surface temperature Sea surface salinity Sea level Sea state Sea ice Current Ocean color (for biological activity) Carbon dioxide partial pressure7 sub-surface measurements Temperature Salinity Current Nutrients Carbon Ocean tracers Phytoplankton

6 Terrestrial Variables Soil moisture and wetness Surface ground temperature Subsurface temperature and moisture Snow and ice cover Permafrost Glaciers and ice sheets


ECV’s included in State of the Climate 2001 (11)

Essential atmospheric variables

6 surface measurements Air temperature Precipitation

5 upper air measurements Upper-air temperature (incl. MSU

radiances)

10 Atmospheric composition measurements

Carbon dioxide Methane Ozone Nitrous oxide Chlorofluorocarbons Hydrochlorofluorocarbons

Essential ocean variables8 surface measurements Sea surface temperature

7 sub-surface measurements

6 Terrestrial Variables Snow and ice cover


Accomplishments of Past 5 Years

Collaboration– 10-fold increase in number of contributing

authors (16->150+)– ~10-fold increase in number of participating

countries (4->33)

Expansion of overall content– New chapters

OceansPolarAll Tropical Cyclone basinsExpanded Regional coverage


What is Provided NowAtmospheric Surface

Mean Temperature

Precipitation – In situ and Satellite

Surface wind speeds Quikscat and Reanalysis


What is Provided NowAtmospheric Surface – Paleo Reconstructions

Reconstructed Summer Rainfall, N. Central TexasReconstructed Summer Rainfall, N. Central Texas

Reconstructed Annual Rainfall, Reconstructed Annual Rainfall, Western New MexicoWestern New Mexico


MSU Lower, Mid-Trop, Stratosphere (UAH, RSS, UW)

RATPAC

What is provided nowAtmospheric Upper-Air

Cloud Amounts

Mid-Troposphere

Graphic courtesy Hadley Centre

CIMSS

Radiative Forcing – 21.5% increase since 1990 attributed to increase in GHGs

ESRL

Cloud cover


What is Provided NowOcean Surface

SST (Smith-Reynolds ERSST) Sea ice (Passive/Active Microwave) Ocean color (NASA SeaWiFS) Sea surface salinity (Argo floats) Sea level (GLOSS and Jason sat.) Surface current (AOML drifter program)


Global Drifting Buoy Array Monitoring Surface Current

1,250 Drifters - AOML

MilestoneGlobal Drifter 1250

(a.) Jan-Mar (d.) Oct-Dec Surface Current Anomalies


Argo FloatsMonitoring Sea Surface Salinity

2005 to 2006 change in sea surface salinity


What is provided nowOcean Sub-surface

Thermohaline Circulation via FL Straits Cable Heat Content: 0-750 meters Sat. Alt. and Argo floats

Change in DIC from 1991 to 2006 – along 152W Meridian (Repeat Hydrography Program)

World Ocean Atlas and Database, 2005


What is provided nowTerrestrial

Mar/Sep 2006 Arctic Sea Ice Extent

A few clusters of permafrost temperature stations exist globally

N. Hemisphere Snow Cover

Extent


ECV’s included in State of the Climate 2006 (20/29)

Essential atmospheric variables6 surface measurements Air temperature Precipitation Wind speed and direction5 upper air measurements Earth radiation budget (incl. solar

irradiance) Upper-air temperature (incl. MSU

radiances) Cloud properties10 Atmospheric composition

measurements Carbon dioxide Methane Ozone Nitrous oxide Chlorofluorocarbons Hydrochlorofluorocarbons Hydrofluorocarbons Sulphur hexaflurorides Aerosol properties

Essential ocean variables8 surface measurements Sea surface temperature Sea surface salinity Sea level Sea ice Current Ocean color (for biological

activity) Carbon dioxide partial pressure7 sub-surface measurements Temperature Carbon Current

6 Terrestrial Variables Soil moisture and wetness Snow and ice cover Permafrost Glaciers and ice sheets


PM ECV Guidance

Climate Corporate Performance Measure– Increase in the # of essential climate variables

that have a quantitative analysis and assessment of long-term trends and variations in climate performed and published in ASCRs

– Guidance AbsentSpatial coverageWhat constitutes long-termHow should new observing systems be handledCurrency


Operational ECV Guidance

Global coverage or reflective of conditions in regions of key importance

Historical perspective or for newly developed technologies and observing systems the available data should provide information to better understand the climate system today while forming the basis for future study of decadal and multi-decadal changes

Currency – data for the current year to the extent possible


ECVs – Bigger Gaps

Essential atmospheric variables

6 surface measurements Surface radiation budget Water vapor

5 upper air measurements Earth radiation budget

(incl. solar irradiance) Water vapor

10 Atmospheric composition measurements

Perfluorocarbons

Essential ocean variables8 surface measurements Sea state

7 sub-surface measurements

Nutrients Ocean tracers Phytoplankton

6 Terrestrial Variables Soil moisture and wetness Surface ground

temperature Subsurface temperature

and moisture


Strategies for Addressing Gaps

Leverage off new programs and networks– Integrated Earth System Analysis– Soil moisture monitoring networks

Build upon advances in observing networks and data sets from developing programs– Argo floats, Drifting buoys, GLOSS– GODAE High Res SST, GlobCOLOUR

Long-term Programmatic Strategy


Assimilating Observations into Earth System Models:

Toward Development of an Integrated Earth System Analysis

Capability

Overarching Objective:Overarching Objective: Improve the scientific capacity to Improve the scientific capacity to assimilate current and planned future observations from disparate assimilate current and planned future observations from disparate observing systems into Earth system models that include physical, observing systems into Earth system models that include physical, chemical, and biological processes in order to produce our bestchemical, and biological processes in order to produce our best synthesized descriptionsynthesized description of the state of the Earth system and how it of the state of the Earth system and how it is evolving over time.is evolving over time.

Goal:Goal: To provide a scientifically-based, internally consistent To provide a scientifically-based, internally consistent description of the state of the Earth system and how it is evolving description of the state of the Earth system and how it is evolving over time.over time.


Actions:Actions:– Develop the capability to integrate within Earth system models an increasing range of

observational data.– Prioritize and focus efforts to include new observations of the Earth system within

models through data assimilation.– Improve coordination and advance efforts in observations, modeling, and data

assimilation required to achieve this capability.

Benefits:Benefits:– Provide a baseline description of recent behavior of the integrated Earth system for

informing policy options related to global-to-regional climate variations and change. – Provide historical and ongoing analyses of the Earth system to support a wide array of

research studies, especially on the coupled system.– Support practical applications in agriculture, energy, and other economic sectors, as

well as management of fresh water, land, marine and other environmental resources.

Assimilating Observations into Earth System Models:

Toward Development of an Integrated Earth System Analysis Capability


Leverage off new networks

Soil Moisture and Temperature– US Climate Reference

Network to be fitted with SMT sensors at all sites as part of NIDIS

– Possibility of same for USHCN-M

– U.S. and Global Real-time Land Data Assimilation System


Leverage off New Technologies and Databases

Water Vapor– Ground-based GPS

Meteorology

– New global gridded database of surface humidity observationsUK CRU


Leverage off Ongoing Programs

Change in DIC from 1991 to 2006 – along 152W Meridian (Repeat

Hydrography Program)

Measurement and study of carbon cycle– Repeat Hydrography

Program

Sub-surface ocean measurement– Capitalize on completion of

Argo floats network and new analyses



GlobCOLOUR Goals are to develop a 10-year

global ocean color data set and demonstrate a near-real time (NRT) service based on merged data

Sensors currently used: ENVISAT/MERIS, AQUA/MODIS, SeaSTAR/SeaWiFS

10-year Full Product Set available later in 2007

Final project phase begins fall 2007 to demonstrate NRT delivery of merged ocean color products

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture.http://www.globcolour.info

GlobCOLOUR Chlorophyll-a from MERIS, MODIS, and SeaWiFS for April of 2003



International GODAE High ResSST Project

Delivering next-generation, high-resolution, global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from multiple satellitesIncludes both near-real time SSTs and reprocessed, delayed mode, climate data recordsData provided by international partners at Regional Data Assembly Centers to Global Data Assembly Center at NASA’s Physical Oceanography DAACAll data then go to NOAA’s National Oceanographic Data Center for long term stewardshipNOAA, NASA, and ESA instruments form the backbone of the observing system, and NOAA-NASA partnership delivers global data management servicesIncludes NOAA’s AVHRR-16/17/18 and GOES-11/12; NASA’s TMI, AMSR-E, and MODIS; and Europe’s SEVIRI and AATSR; also several gap-free analysis products

SST Anomalies (ºC) from OSTIA (Crown Copyright 2007, data provided by Met Office, UK) and AVHRR Pathfinder for 13 Dec 2006 and 03 Mar 2007, illustrating the disappearance of El Niño.

http://ghrsst.nodc.noaa.gov and http://www.ghrsst-pp.org

13 Dec 2006

03 Mar 2007


Long-term Programmatic Strategy

ECV goal attainment cannot be assured without continued commitment from NOAA (&GEO) to address observational, research, and operational deficiencies in all three areas

– Atmosphere– Ocean– Land surface


Discussion

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CWG Review April 11-13, 2007 1 CWG COA Program Review Panel #7 Describing the State of the Climate...

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