Date post: | 07-May-2015 |
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Research projects differ• Some seek to explore issues
– field studies vs laboratory studies
• Some seek to confirm or disprove hypotheses– field studies vs laboratory studies
• Some seek to critically evaluate an area• Some seek to solve a problem and
implement a solution• Some design and implement new systems• Some seek to develop new theory or
algorithms
(Social)Sciences
Engineering & mathematics
Cynefin: a Welsh habitat
Cause and effect can be determined with
sufficient data
Knowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Cause and effect may be determined after the event
Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable
Known The realm of Scientific
Knowledge Cause and effect understood
and predicable
D. Snowden (2002). "Complex acts of knowing - paradox and descriptive self-awareness." Journal of Knowledge Management 6 pp. 100-11.
Cynefin:• physical environment• cultural environment• social environment• historical environment• …..
Cynefin: a Welsh habitat
Cause and effect can be determined with
sufficient data
K nowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Cause and effect may be determined after the event
Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable
K nown The realm of Scientific
Knowledge Cause and effect understood
and predicable
D. Snowden (2002). "Complex acts of knowing - paradox and descriptive self-awareness." Journal of Knowledge Management 6 pp. 100-11.
Cynefin:• physical environment• cultural environment• social environment• historical environment• …..
Cynefin: a Welsh habitat
Cause and effect can be determined with
sufficient data
Knowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Cause and effect may be determined after the event
Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable
Known The realm of Scientific
Knowledge Cause and effect understood
and predicable
D. Snowden (2002). "Complex acts of knowing - paradox and descriptive self-awareness." Journal of Knowledge Management 6 pp. 100-11.
Cynefin:• physical environment• cultural environment• social environment• historical environment• …..
Cynefin: a Welsh habitat
Cause and effect can be determined with
sufficient data
Knowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Cause and effect may be determined after the event
Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable
Known The realm of Scientific
Knowledge Cause and effect understood
and predicable
D. Snowden (2002). "Complex acts of knowing - paradox and descriptive self-awareness." Journal of Knowledge Management 6 pp. 100-11.
Cynefin:• physical environment• cultural environment• social environment• historical environment• …..
Cynefin: a Welsh habitat
Cause and effect can be determined with
sufficient data
Knowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Cause and effect may be determined after the event
Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable
Known The realm of Scientific
Knowledge Cause and effect understood
and predicable
D. Snowden (2002). "Complex acts of knowing - paradox and descriptive self-awareness." Journal of Knowledge Management 6 pp. 100-11.
Cynefin:• physical environment• cultural environment• social environment• historical environment• …..
Cynefin: a Welsh habitat
Cause and effect can be determined with
sufficient data
Knowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Cause and effect may be determined after the event
Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable
Known The realm of Scientific
Knowledge Cause and effect understood
and predicable
D. Snowden (2002). "Complex acts of knowing - paradox and descriptive self-awareness." Journal of Knowledge Management 6 pp. 100-11.
Cynefin:• physical environment• cultural environment• social environment• historical environment• …..
K nowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Chaotic
K nown The realm of Scientific
Knowledge
A conventional view of emergency management
K nowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Chaotic
K nown The realm of Scientific
Knowledge
A conventional view of emergency management
What can we learn from the past?
K nowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Chaotic
K nown The realm of Scientific
Knowledge
Chernobyl
K nowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Chaotic
K nown The realm of Scientific
Knowledge
Three Mile Island
K nowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Chaotic
K nown The realm of Scientific
Knowledge
More generally
ResponseRecovery
Threat
Knowledge Management and Nonaka’s SECI
tacit knowledge
explicit knowledge
Socialisation
Internalisation
Combination
Externalisation
Cynefin and Knowledge Management
Cause and effect can be determined with
sufficient data
K nowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Cause and effect may be determined after the event
Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable
K nown The realm of Scientific
Knowledge Cause and effect understood
and predicable
Tacit KnowledgeCollaboration tools
Explicit KnowledgeData/Information
Management
So
cial
isat
ion
Co
mb
inat
ion
Applications of Cynefin• Emergency Management• Categorisation of DSS and OR/DA
techniques• Human Reliability Analysis• High Reliability Organisations• Knowledge Management• Sensemaking• Research Methodology
Cynefin: learning, repeatability
Cause and effect can be determined with
sufficient data
K nowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Cause and effect may be determined after the event
Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable
K nown The realm of Scientific
Knowledge Cause and effect understood
and predicable Repeatability and increasing familiarity
Cause and effect can be determined with
sufficient data
K nowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Cause and effect may be determined after the event
Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable
K nown The realm of Scientific
Knowledge Cause and effect understood
and predicable
Cynefin and data collection
Exper
imen
ts
and
trials
Case
studie
s,
inter
views,
and
surv
eys
Cause and effect can be determined with
sufficient data
K nowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Cause and effect may be determined after the event
Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable
K nown The realm of Scientific
Knowledge Cause and effect understood
and predicable
Cynefin and statistics
Repea
table
even
ts
Uniqueevents
Events?
Estim
ation
and
conf
irmat
ory
analy
sis
explo
rato
ry
analy
ses
So ...
... why do we see so many articles in social science and management journals dealing with issues that are clearly in the complex space but using confirmatory methods:
– Analysis of variance/covariance– Structural equation modelling– Precise p-values– ...
Cause and effect can be determined with
sufficient data
K nowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Cause and effect may be determined after the event
Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable
K nown The realm of Scientific
Knowledge Cause and effect understood
and predicable
Cynefin and Values
Repea
table
even
ts
Uniqueevents
Events?
Values
/pre
fere
nces
unde
rsto
od &
rehe
arse
d
Values
/pre
fere
nces
not f
ully u
nder
stood
Thank you
Complexity vs Complicated
• Confusingly complexity science does not relate primarily to the complex space!
• It is about computationally intensive models: i.e. complicated modelsModels understanding cause and effect
• So complexity science applies to the knowable space much more than the complex space.
K nowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Chaotic
K nown The realm of Scientific
Knowledge
Human Reliability Modelling
Mos
t HR
A
met
hods
focu
s on
sim
ple
task
s
Hum
an b
ehav
iour
cont
ribut
ing
to
maj
or s
yste
m fa
ilure
aris
es in
com
plex
circ
umst
ance
s
K nowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Chaotic
K nown The realm of Scientific
Knowledge
High reliability organisations
Empi
rical
bas
is
e.g.
airc
raft
carri
er
oper
atio
ns
Pres
crip
tion:
how
to re
spon
d to
unfo
rese
en is
sues
Do preferences exist?
• DeFinetti famously said – “Probabilities do not exist”
• Do preferences exist?• or better
– When do preferences come into existence?
Cynefin and decision making
categorise and respond
Sense, analyseandrespond
probe,sense,respond
actsenserespond
Cause and effect can be determined with
sufficient data
K nowable The realm of
Scientific Inquiry
Complex The realm of Social Systems
Cause and effect may be determined after the event
Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable
K nown The realm of Scientific
Knowledge Cause and effect understood
and predicable
Chaotic
Level 0: Level 1: Level 2: Level 3:
exploration, trial and error, building hypotheses.
}{ Known
Level 0: database systems Level 1: forecasting Level 2: simulation Level 3: AI, e.g. expert systems,
neural nets
Knowable
Level 0: databases, MIS Level 1: statistical inference,
forecasting Level 2: OR models e.g. LP
simulation Level 3: decision trees,
influence diagrams
Complex
Level 0: soft OR, PSM, EDA, EIS, data-mining
Level 1: expert judgement Level 2: scenario planning Level 3: simpler MCDM models,
simpler decision trees, influence diagrams
Data and model based systems (cf. combination cycle of SECI) Collaboration
tools, GDSS, decision conferencing, etc. (cf. socialisation cycle of SECI)
Level 0: Acquisition, checking and presentation of data, directly or with minimal analysis, to DMs
Level 1: Analysis and forecasting of the current and future environment.
Level 2: Simulation and analysis of the consequences of potential strategies; determination of their feasibility and quantification of their benefits and disadvantages.
Level 3: Evaluation and ranking of alternative strategies in the face of uncertainty by balancing their respective benefits and disadvantages.