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February 2011 issue © February 15, 2011 (data through February 14) A REVIEW OF WAVE 3-OF-3 ACCELERATION POINTS The most crucial question today is whether the stock market is in a new bull market (an impulse wave) or a bear market rally (a corrective wave). This issue will review how to spot one vs. the other. Figure 1 shows what we consider to be the best wave labeling for the rally from the 2009 low. It shows the latter part of an (A)-(B)-(C) rally, with five waves up in wave (C). This is a corrective (three-wave) sequence, not an impulse. It is also legitimate to count the rally as a series of first and second waves, which are leading up to a third-of-a-third wave, the violent leap upward in the middle of a long impulse (five-wave) sequence, as indicated in Figure 2. Why is this not our preferred count? Keeping hourly charts by hand back in the 1970s was helpful in revealing the character of the center of an impulse wave. I introduced observations on the “wave 3-of-3” point of maximum acceleration in Elliott Wave Principle in 1978. Since it’s my baby, I like to call it the Prechter Point. Four such points within waves of Primary degree have occurred during my career, three on the upside and one on the downside. In three of those cases, I knew exactly where the market was in its development. The rising instances took place in 1976, 1986 and 1996, and the declining one occurred in 2008. These were the points of maximum upside acceleration for waves 1, 3 and 5 and maximum downside acceleration for wave 1 of c. Elliott waves regulate mass psychology. The most crucial thing to understand is how investors feel and behave as the market approaches a third-of-a-third acceleration point. Then you can decide whether one is likely now or not. Figure 1 Figure 2 Stay informed on the outlook for the markets with Elliott Wave International’s latest analysis. Learn more about Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist and its sister publication, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/wave/save26. To return to Club EWI for more free resources and educational materials. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/clublibrary . © 2011 Elliott Wave International — www.elliottwave.com
Transcript
Page 1: da Bears

February 2011 issue© February 15, 2011(data through February 14)

A REVIEW OF WAVE 3-OF-3 ACCELERATION POINTS

The most crucial question today is whether the stock market is in a new bull market (an impulse wave) or a bear market rally (a corrective wave). This issue will review how to spot one vs. the other.

Figure 1 shows what we consider to be the best wave labeling for the rally from the 2009 low. It shows the latter part of an (A)-(B)-(C) rally, with five waves up in wave (C). This is a corrective (three-wave) sequence, not an impulse.

It is also legitimate to count the rally as a series of first and second waves, which are leading up to a third-of-a-third wave, the violent leap upward in the middle of a long impulse (five-wave) sequence, as indicated in Figure 2. Why is this not our preferred count?

Keeping hourly charts by hand back in the 1970s was helpful in revealing the character of the center of an impulse wave. I introduced observations on the “wave 3-of-3” point of maximum acceleration in Elliott Wave Principle in 1978. Since it’s my baby, I like to call it the Prechter Point. Four such points within waves of Primary degree have occurred during my career, three on the upside and one on the downside. In three of those cases, I knew exactly where the market was in its development. The rising instances took place in 1976, 1986 and 1996, and the declining one occurred in 2008. These were the points of maximum upside acceleration for waves 1, 3 and 5 and maximum downside acceleration for wave 1 of c.

Elliott waves regulate mass psychology. The most crucial thing to understand is how investors feel and behave as the market approaches a third-of-a-third acceleration point. Then you can decide whether one is likely now or not.

Figure 1 Figure 2

Stay informed on the outlook for the markets with Elliott Wave International’s latest analysis. Learn more about Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist and its sister publication, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/wave/save26.To return to Club EWI for more free resources and educational materials. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/clublibrary.

© 2011 Elliott Wave International — www.elliottwave.com

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The Elliott Wave Theorist—February 15, 2011

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Stay informed on the outlook for the markets with Elliott Wave International’s latest analysis. Learn more about Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist and its sister publication, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/wave/save26.To return to Club EWI for more free resources and educational materials. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/clublibrary.

© 2011 Elliott Wave International — www.elliottwave.com

Leading up to the Center of Wave 1After peaking in July 1975, the market fell into October. These were waves (1) and (2) of Primary wave

1 up. The five waves up in the first half of 1975 and the correction into October were clear, so I was eagerly awaiting an upside explosion for wave (3). From the October low into December, prices traced out waves 1 and 2 of (3), as shown in Figure 3. Wave 2 down was brief but very sharp and spooked some prominent market watchers. Advisors were mostly optimistic at the time, but, as Figure 4 shows, individual investors were so market-averse that they were selling mutual fund shares at what was then the highest rate on record.

During the year-end holidays, the market began to rise again, but since it often rises at that time of year, it seemed to be just the usual year-end rally, nothing to get excited about. Then, on the first trading day of 1976, the market gapped up and zoomed in the center of wave 3 of (3). Breadth expanded to its best pace of the bull market, and the surge didn’t stop until March. Because caution had been the watchword, investors were caught by surprise. Figure 5 shows the aftermath.

That’s how it usually happens. The center-point within a rising impulse is when investors stop wondering how low the market might go and start thinking about how high it can go. This rally was only wave 1, however, so a bigger awakening awaited wave 3.

Figure 4

Figure 3 Figure 5

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Stay informed on the outlook for the markets with Elliott Wave International’s latest analysis. Learn more about Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist and its sister publication, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/wave/save26.To return to Club EWI for more free resources and educational materials. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/clublibrary.

© 2011 Elliott Wave International — www.elliottwave.com

Leading up to the Center of Wave 3The stock market soared from August 1982 to January 1984 and then went down into July. These were

the first two waves up from the 1982 low and may be labeled as waves (1) and (2) of Primary wave 3. (At the time I was using labels of one larger degree, but the wave development is the same.)

One might think that after the surge of 1982-83, investors would have adopted a long term bullish stance and become primed to “buy the dip.” But even after the market popped sharply in July as wave (3) of 3 began, investors were cautious. The market continued to rise for another entire year, yet investors remained more concerned about downside risk than about upside potential. In the summer of 1985, the averages made a new all-time high, yet investors still did not embrace the advance. In August and September, the market pulled back in a very small wave, wave 8 of 3 of (3) of 3. The September 30 issue included Figures 6 and 7 to show in real time where the market was within the Elliott wave structure.

Sentiment indicators were super bullish, because they showed how bearish every group of players had quickly become. Take some time to read this real-time description of how investors felt just before the market was about to accelerate on the upside:

On September 17, Market Vane (Pasadena, CA) called, as they do every Tuesday, for my opinions on the major markets to add to their construction of the Bullish Consensus figures. The next morning, as the Dow touched its low, they announced the second lowest bullish consensus on stocks since they have been keeping the figures. The low in August 1982 provided a single week at 19% bulls, while the September 17, 1985 figure was just 23%. Market Vane kindly called me again that afternoon with some interesting news. They tally the opinions of all the major advisors, from brokerage houses to money managers to market letter writers, and The Elliott Wave Theorist was the only respondent who answered “bullish and long” on the stock market. The only reason that the figure is as high as 23% is because Market Vane (correctly) rates those “neutral” or “on the sidelines” as partly bullish and partly bearish. Notice first that, if EWT were only an interested observer and not a double weighted (letter and hotline) participant, the Bullish Consensus figure would have been even lower. But more important, you and I are truly in accord with a contrary opinion. Being alone doesn’t mean we’ll end up right, but it does give us by far the better odds.I mentioned last month that the extreme sentiment readings reflected “the most bearish investor psychology since July 1984.” That was true. Now, the numbers in the area of investor psychology are reflecting the most bearish investor psychology since August 1982 in most cases, and since December 1974 in many. The ratio of the total dollars in puts versus the total dollars in calls in September hit its most extreme reading in the history of the ratio, which goes back to 1975. The CBOE put/call ratio, bullish six weeks ago, is today sitting at a level which exceeds that of the low week in August 1982; in other words, it, too, is the best in its history (see chart, below). These indicators are joined by the most extreme reading in the weighted put/call

Figure 6 Figure 7

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Stay informed on the outlook for the markets with Elliott Wave International’s latest analysis. Learn more about Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist and its sister publication, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/wave/save26.To return to Club EWI for more free resources and educational materials. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/clublibrary.

© 2011 Elliott Wave International — www.elliottwave.com

ratio that we have on record, and a corresponding rise in the Merrill Lynch put/call ratio. While the MLPC doesn’t often speak, it is very bullish when moving in concert with those mentioned above. These ratios do not relate only to short term trends. Extremes in these readings have coincided with major turns.The intermediate term short selling indicators sit at record-setting levels. The 8-week (exponential) ratio of public short selling to NYSE specialist short selling, which hit a bullish .61 last month (see chart, p.10, Sept. issue), has since climbed to .63 (below .45 is bearish; above .57 bullish). This is the highest reading since at least 1982. Dean Witter’s John Mendelson has the public shorts ratio (public short selling as a % of NYSE volume) back to the 1940s. For 30 years, he says, tops have been associated with readings near 1.00, bottoms with 1.80. The classic low of August 1982 had three weekly readings over 1.80, but out of the past 14 weeks, 11 have been above 1.80. Says John, “These are the most bullish readings of which we are aware.”Cash account activity, which gave a “buy” at the mid-August temporary low, is again saying “buy,” this time even more strongly. Futures premiums, which were terribly low in early September, fell even further into the third week of September, and have now risen slightly off the low. This rise may indicate that the traders are recognizing the subtle slowing in downside momentum. In any case, the extreme lack of forward value in the futures contracts is bullish.A seat on the American Stock Exchange recently sold for 1/3 of its value just two years ago. Brokerage houses, says the WSJ’s front page article, have “dismal” bottom lines, with one recently racking up “the biggest single-year loss in Wall Street history.” Market letter ads aren’t being coy any more, they’re announcing “Market Top Has Been Seen,” “Bear Market,” “Sell Short” and “On the Brink of Great Depression II.” Newspaper headlines continue to reflect the general psychology: “Bears Take Floor at Investment Conference,” “Big Run Almost Over, Brokerage Warns” and “What is There to be Bullish About?” One state governor makes headlines when he “Fears National Disaster Looms Ahead.” All of these observations reveal the symptoms of a very depressed market psychology.We have often heard lately that these sentiment indicators “used to work, but now they can’t be trusted.” This is a symptom of bearishness, pure and simple, just as its opposite at the top is a symptom of bullishness. It’s a common occurrence at turns. We have also heard that “these readings don’t have to indicate a bottom if we’re in a bear market.” This reasoning approaches the market backwards. It says the analyst will decide first whether it’s a bull or bear market, then choose to allow or dismiss the technical evidence accordingly! The point is that these indicators are saying that it’s not a bear market.The hard numbers of the indicators show that the public is acting on their feelings and what they read and hear; they have sold short heavily, and bought puts at an all-time record rate. Keep in mind that when the public buys stocks late in a bull market, they often enjoy paper profits for awhile, but they are never allowed to keep them. Similarly, when the public sells short heavily, they may be profitable for a while, but they are inevitably forced to cover into a powerfully rising market. The psychological setup for the acceleration phase of Primary wave 3 is as close to perfect as it can get. –EWT, 9/30/85

Figure 8

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Stay informed on the outlook for the markets with Elliott Wave International’s latest analysis. Learn more about Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist and its sister publication, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/wave/save26.To return to Club EWI for more free resources and educational materials. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/clublibrary.

© 2011 Elliott Wave International — www.elliottwave.com

It is clear that the players in that market were not cheerily programmed to “buy the dip.” On the contrary, they ramped up their bearishness to near record levels. This is how the market creeps up on a “third of a third” wave. Figure 9 shows the aftermath.

Leading up to the Center of Wave 5After the 1987 crash, the market crept

upwards at a slower pace than it had been going before. Wave (2) brought on a recession in 1990-1991. Layoffs continued through 1993. In 1994, the market stalled out and corrected for most of the year. Upside momentum was slow, as it was in 1984-85. The market was already at historically high valuation, and the subdivisions were unclear and atypical, so this juncture fooled even me. The market had been going up for 20 years by the end of 1994, so investors were not as fearful as they were in late 1975 or late 1985. But Figure 10 shows how bearish the newsletter advisors were, as the 20-week moving average of bulls minus bears reached its lowest level since 1982! That was the last wave two before the market accelerated on the upside in wave 8 of 3 of (3). Figure 11 shows that juncture, and Figure 12 the aftermath.

Leading up to the Center of Wave 1 of cThe “third of a third” wave also happens on the downside. In this case, the psychological setup is

essentially identical but in reverse: Bullishness prevails before the market accelerates downward. Since 1940, the only occurrence of this setup within a declining impulse wave of Primary degree occurred in 2008. Like all impulse waves, it began with a series of first and second waves. Our Elliott Wave Financial Forecast

Figure 9

Figure 10

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Stay informed on the outlook for the markets with Elliott Wave International’s latest analysis. Learn more about Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist and its sister publication, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/wave/save26.To return to Club EWI for more free resources and educational materials. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/clublibrary.

© 2011 Elliott Wave International — www.elliottwave.com

published the correct wave labeling in real time at both wave-two tops, as shown in Figures 13 and 14. This was a setup for a smash.

Advisors stayed net bullish on the weekly tally until the market’s low in the second week of March 2008, five months after the top, and they returned to a plurality of bulls in the third week of April and stayed net bullish until the middle of June, per Figure 15. Market action seemed to suggest powerful hope right through the summer, as the market jumped on each move by the central bank or the government designed to stem the tide. It was not until October—at wave iii of (iii) of 8 of 3 of (3)—that investors finally panicked and switched their mental orientation from the market’s upside potential to how far it might fall. (See Figure 16.)

Whatever the direction, few believe in the new trend at the 1-2, 1-2 point in the structure. They see the advancing pattern as a selling opportunity and the declining pattern as a buying opportunity. Both stances turn out wrong. In both rising and declining markets, the high level of disbelief in the new trend prior to the center of an impulse wave catches people off guard, helping explain why the market accelerates so strongly thereafter.

Figure 11

Figure 12

Figure 13 Figure 14

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Stay informed on the outlook for the markets with Elliott Wave International’s latest analysis. Learn more about Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist and its sister publication, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/wave/save26.To return to Club EWI for more free resources and educational materials. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/clublibrary.

© 2011 Elliott Wave International — www.elliottwave.com

What about Today?This historical review brings us up to today. The crucial question to answer is: Did a new bull market

begin in 2009, and is the wave structure approaching an acceleration point of an impulse, wave iii of (iii) of 8 of 3 of (3)?

The first question to ask is, “Do market players mistrust the rally?” On the contrary, as detailed in recent issues of EWT and EWFF, sentiment measures today do not indicate caution, skepticism and disbelief but rather multi-year extremes in optimism among five sets of market players: individual investors, futures traders, options traders, newsletter advisors and mutual fund managers. (See Figure 17.) This is the polar opposite of their behavior in September 1985 and November 1994, as shown above in Figures 8 and 10. Like most bankers, economists and hedge fund operators, these five key groups are betting on further gains in the market.

The one group that has not been bullish is mutual fund investors, who have been net sellers during the 2009-2011 rally. We have read many times that this condition is bullish, and that is certainly a reasonable interpretation of such behavior. But take another look at Figure 4, showing how mutual fund investors acted in the 1960s and 1970s. Notice that these investors did not suddenly begin selling only when the new bull market began. They sold into the rally leading to the third and final peak within the bear market of 1966-1974. That advance is well known for having been led by institutions, who were buying the Nifty Fifty growth stocks at lofty prices while individual investors, slammed by the 1968-1970 bear market, limped toward the exits. Today, institutions—mostly hedge funds—are once again leading the charge while the public mostly sits it out. This market,

Figure 15 Figure 16

Figure 17

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The Elliott Wave Theorist—February 15, 2011

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Stay informed on the outlook for the markets with Elliott Wave International’s latest analysis. Learn more about Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist and its sister publication, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/wave/save26.To return to Club EWI for more free resources and educational materials. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/clublibrary.

© 2011 Elliott Wave International — www.elliottwave.com

then, seems more like that of 1970-73 than 1975-76. In my view, the public’s net selling has been getting a lot of positive press because overall market psychology is optimistic. The very latest figures, by the way, show that the public in January finally started “plowing cash back into these funds” at the fastest monthly rate in seven years. The same thing happened a few times in 1970-1973 as well. Many people cite this buying as the beginning of new money entering the stock market, but I think the capitulation of the only skeptical sector along with the media’s bullish spin on the data are more likely signs of a top.

ConclusionThe answer to the question of whether we should expect an acceleration point dead ahead, then, is “No.”

However you slice it, optimism, not pessimism, is the prevailing sentiment. The four-to-six-year highs in sentiment readings (see Figure 17) among various market players, moreover, are in addition to the indications of historically high optimism as revealed in the minuscule 2.3% annual dividend yield on the Dow and the recent all-time low percentage of cash in mutual funds, at 3.4%.

I think the current rally is like the 1981-1982 decline upside down. The market made three lows near the bottom of wave IV, in 1974 (Dow), 1980 (Dow/gold) and 1982 (Dow/PPI and test of the lows). At each juncture, indicators were bullish across the board. Now the market has made two tops and is working on a third: 1999-2000 (Dow/gold), 2007 (Dow) and 2011(?) (test of the highs). This is the stock market’s third trek into the stratosphere of optimism in twelve years, and each time, indicators have been bearish across the board. Living through all this top-building has been quite frustrating for a long term bear, just as living through all the base-building into 1982 was quite frustrating for a long term bull. In August 1982, the market finally had enough long term pessimism and began to soar for real. Any time now, the market should finally give up on long term optimism and begin to collapse for real.

People who want to bet with the consensus often dismiss the power of market sentiment to inform investors. But consider that in all the years of 1974-1982, when pessimism mostly prevailed, the market could not satisfy that pessimism by losing ground. Similarly, it has been a “lost decade” for the bulls, as the S&P is still lower than it was in March 2000, even in nominal terms despite the most aggressive inflationary monetary policy in the country’s history. In real (gold) terms, the Dow is down 80% since 1999. That is the power of sentiment, and when optimism finally caves in and psychology moves determinedly in the other direction, it should be a sight to behold.

What If?We have history and the figures on our side, but in the past dozen years old extremes have been exceeded

by huge amounts. So, is it possible that an upside acceleration will happen? As shown in the April 2010 issue, the 7.25-year cycle points up through 2012 before falling into 2016. But, as stated then, with long term cycles pointing down one should expect an early price peak. As noted in the June 2009 issue, one can count the wave pattern from 2000 to 2009 as a large flat correction, which would be followed by an impulse wave to new highs. But that pattern does not fit at all well into the market’s preceding structure. The strongest point in favor of the labeling in Figure 2 is that the corrections are increasingly smaller. The corrections are all zigzags, too, so there is no alternation (see text, p.63) as one would expect in a completed impulse. But there was no alternation in the impulse from March 2009 to April 2010 either (see Figure 17), so this guideline seems to carry less weight here.

To make a new all time high, to undercut the record low Dow dividend yield of 1.4% in 2000, or to exceed the record of more than nine straight years when 51 out of 52 weeks per year on average saw more bulls than bears among advisors in 2007, would mean that the market is making a top not of Grand Supercycle degree, the biggest in nearly 300 years, but one of Sub-Millennium degree, the biggest in 2000 years. If it were to happen, the aftermath would be even more devastating than I’m already expecting. We would be talking less about financial safety and instead about buying caves in the Rockies. But the zigzag shape of the bear market in England in the 1700s, marking it as probably a second wave of Grand Supercycle degree, makes this outcome highly unlikely. So, on no basis does possibility yet turn into probability.

I think those who are buying stock today are going to regret it. But I wanted you to see the evidence so you can make up your own mind. You now understand how investors typically feel before a point of

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Stay informed on the outlook for the markets with Elliott Wave International’s latest analysis. Learn more about Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist and its sister publication, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/wave/save26.To return to Club EWI for more free resources and educational materials. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/clublibrary.

© 2011 Elliott Wave International — www.elliottwave.com

acceleration. You can see that they do not feel that way now. The probability that this is a bear market rally is much greater than that it is early in a new bull market. The speed of the advance has convinced many people that it is analogous to the bull market liftoffs of 1932-33 or 1942-43. But back then, dividend yields were sky high and P/Es were low. The better analogy is that the market is in a larger version of the 1938-1939 rally.

There is a middle road, too, which is that the bear market rally is not over yet. It could continue to grind higher. The (A)-(B)-(C) structure, the weak breadth, the light volume—today (Feb. 14) was the lightest volume day of the year!—and the one-sided optimism suggest very little upside potential left. Moreover, since the wave pattern of 2007-2009 is a clear five-wave impulse, the market cannot reach a new high under this scenario as it did in 1972.

StrategyInvestors should stay in the safest possible cash and cash equivalents. This stance has beaten the S&P

for twelve years. A great bear market bottom lies ahead, and we want to have all our money intact to take advantage of that time.

After doing well in 2007-2009 holding short for 800 S&P points on maximum leverage, speculators stepped aside near the low for a 50% rise in the stock averages. It was a great period for us. But since August 2009, speculators have been losing money on our short position as the S&P has gone 30% against us. (We will review this history in an upcoming issue.) The current juncture looks too enticing to ignore, so we will try for the third time to ramp up that position. Speculators across the board should adopt a maximum leveraged short position immediately. The S&P closed above 1332 today. Place a stop at S&P 1359 on this added portion.

We should know very soon if an upside acceleration is taking place. If the daily advance/decline ratios begin expanding significantly—say, to 5:1 or more—and the slope of rise for the S&P increases above that of the rise from July 2010 to date, then we will be witnessing a third-of-a-third wave up. In that case, the market would probably rise for at least another year, as long as it does not fall below the level of the start of the first such day.

If this happens, speculators will have to cover all shorts, with a plan to re-short immediately if the market falls back below the start of that acceleration day. But at least we will know the position of the waves, and we can wait for the completion of five Intermediate waves in order to sell again.

A Fibonacci Time RelationshipSubscriber Peter Atwater alerted us to a long

term Fibonacci time relationship, and now is a good time to show it. As shown in Figure 18, the bull market in the S&P dating from 1982 to 2000 lasted 6434 days from the lowest to highest daily close. If the topping process is to last .618 of that time, it will end near February 11, 2011. Since the market has risen into this date, we should respect the potential for a turn at or near this time. Given the outrageous optimism in today’s market, this timing seems especially attractive. The only remaining multiple relating to the same waves is 5/8, which projects a potential turn date on March 28, 2011.

Fibonacci time relationships are usually quite precise when they happen. Most of the time the market turns within five calendar days of the projected turn date. In other words, if the Dow makes new closing highs after this week, we should consider this .618 relationship inapplicable. Figure 18

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Stay informed on the outlook for the markets with Elliott Wave International’s latest analysis. Learn more about Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist and its sister publication, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/wave/save26.To return to Club EWI for more free resources and educational materials. Go to: www.elliottwave.com/clublibrary.

© 2011 Elliott Wave International — www.elliottwave.com

Dow Is About 100 Points from Its Supercycle-Degree Resistance Line

Way back in 1978, Elliott Wave Principle showed the developing trend channel of Supercycle degree. Figure 5-5 from that book is reproduced here as Figure 19. We have been tracking prices with respect to this channel ever since.

As happened in the 1920s, the smaller Cycle degree channel (see Figure 20) was steep and carried prices above the longer term upper channel line. Wave b, the rally into 2007, came back to test the underside of the lower line of that smaller channel.

Now wave 2 is stretching towards the upper channel line of the Supercycle, the one touching the highs of 1937 and 1966. This line denotes a Dow that, from a psychological point of view (not to mention other points of view) is “extremely expensive.” The peaks of 2000 and 2007 were “ridiculously expensive.”

When prices exceed an upper channel line (in what Elliott called a throw-over; see text, p.73) and then fall back below it, they Figure 19

Figure 20

© 1978, Elliott Wave Principle

As published in Elliott Wave Principle (1978)

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© 2011 Elliott Wave International — www.elliottwave.com

sometimes return to test it before turning down in greater earnest. The April 2009 EWT showed an example of such an occurrence in the Gold+Silver Index in 1980.

This quarter, the line cuts through prices at approximately the Dow 12,400 level. Given the wave labeling of Figure 1 and the extreme sentiment shown in Figure 17, the market seems poised to stop near this trendline.

Given the importance of this line, the market would almost surely have to accelerate strongly to penetrate it. This option fits our discussion about the choice the market faces per the two scenarios indicated in Figures 1 and 2. The first scenario remains by far the most probable.

The Atlas Movie Is on the WayThis is a very promising movie trailer: http://www.elliottwave.com/wave/Atlas-Trailer.It looks as if Atlas Shrugged—Part 1 will be something between a decent and a terrific movie, despite

its low budget of only $15m. It might be a better movie because of its low budget, since it won’t have A-list stars getting in the audience’s way of the characters. The trailer suggests that the producers were unable to afford re-creating the dystopian world of crumbling infrastructure featured in the novel; but if more investors fund Part 2, perhaps that vision will evolve with the story. Fitting author Ayn Rand’s sensibilities, this is an independent film, not a studio production. Director Paul Johansson (http://www.elliottwave.com/wave/Atlas-on-the-set) is philosophically committed to Rand’s famous book, which sells more copies than any tome but the Bible (and undoubtedly the Koran). Although the book is over half a century old, the film has not been made before because Hollywood has never understood—in fact, is repulsed by—its moral view championing in no uncertain terms, individualism over statism. It is a brilliant decision to do the story in parts, which will not only allow the filmmakers to handle its scope but also to produce a series of theater events, each one no doubt bigger than the last. For the philosophically minded, it will be a bigger deal than the widely anticipated sequels in the Star Trek, Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter series.

An amazing aspect of this series is that it could not have come at a better time. Statism has taken over America and is destroying it through regulation, restriction, extraction and waste at all levels, from local county commissions to Washington, D.C. Why do responsible, productive, well meaning people let it happen? Atlas Shrugged explores that question.

The Atlas series is coming at a time of nascent, stirring desire for independence, which has already produced the overthrow of (U.S.-government backed) despotic rulers in Tunisia and Egypt, and similar events are developing in Yemen (undoubtedly merely to open the door for the next vampire government, but that’s just history’s sad tale). Humans, unfortunately, are programmed to want leaders, so the imposition of states will probably never cease. But at least those who can see through the scam can go down fighting, and this film series could galvanize that beleaguered contingent. It is fortunate that the movie was never made before, since it probably would have been botched, as the sterile version of Rand’s The Fountainhead was in 1949. That film came at the end of the last Kondratieff cycle, but now, with the K-cycle “winter” only beginning, people will be better able to understand viscerally the point of the story. Perhaps the long period of delays and failures had to do with nature’s Fibonacci time clock. The book was published in 1957. The series will run from 2011 to 2013, in other words a 55 years, plus and minus one year, from the book’s original release.

The release date for Atlas Shrugged—Part 1 is April 15, tax day. The contrast is clear: On this day one type of entity—the state—will record its forcible seizure of three trillion dollars from working people, while another type of entity—a business—will entice you to exchange $8 for two hours of engagement, and it will be your choice to say yes or no.

First-Ever Socionomics ConferenceOn April 16, 2011 the Socionomics Institute will host the first-ever Socionomics Summit, titled “New

Horizons in the Study of Social Mood,” at the Georgia Tech Hotel and Conference Center in Atlanta. The conference is priced as low as possible ($199), just to cover expenses. The idea is to have as many socionomically minded people attend as possible. The list of presenters is excellent: John Casti, Research

Page 12: da Bears

The Elliott Wave Theorist—February 15, 2011

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Scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria and author of Mood Matters; Johan Bollen and Huina Mao of Indiana University, authors of the widely covered study, “Twitter Mood Predicts the Stock Market”; Eric Gilbert, assistant professor in Georgia Tech’s College of Computing; Matt Lampert, Research Fellow of the Socionomics Institute and doctoral candidate in the sociology department at the University of Cambridge; Ken Olson, professor of psychology at Fort Hays (KS) State University; Scott Reamer, partner and founder of the multi-billion dollar hedge fund Chora Capital; Kevin Depew, Emmy Award winner and editor-in-chief of Minyanville.com; and half a dozen speakers from the Institute and other contributors to The Socionomist. Atlanta is a hub, so it’s an easy flight from almost anywhere. The event takes place on a Saturday, so you don’t have to miss work. Sign up and learn more here: http://www.elliottwave.com/wave/SocionomicsSummitAnn.

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