Marriage in Multi-Ethnic society, Netherlands Demographic Society Annual Conference, Het
Trippenhuis, Amsterdam, 9 October 2003
Partner choice and the growth of ethnic minority populations
D.A. Coleman
Department of Social Policy and Social Work, University of Oxford
http://www.apsoc.ox.ac.uk/oxpop
Not much marriage please - we’re North Western Europeans
• Marriage an odd choice for a 21st century conference, in the homeland of the ‘Second Demographic Transition’?
• But marriage alive and well and living in (most) European ethnic minority populations.
• Host / immigrant distinctions enshrined in ‘Hajnal’s line’ apparent since 16th century, sharpened in 20th.
Basic data on marriage contrasts• Most Eastern European and non-European :
marriage universal and early. often arranged or consanguineous. cohabitation and extramarital births rare. households often complex.
• Most ‘minorities’ in this group• Traditional ‘Western’ – West of ‘Hajnal’s line’:
marriage late, often avoided, mostly not arranged. cohabitation and extra-marital births unusual. Households usually nuclear-based.
• Data on marriages / unions of ‘ethnic minorities’ very uneven (e.g stock, not flow).
Proportions married, selected European minorities 1998/2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59
perc
ent m
arri
ed
Belgians 2002 Italians in Belgium Moroccans in Belgium Turks in Belgium
CEE in Belgium 2000 Italians Yugoslavs in Switzerland Turks in Switzerland
Percent ever-married by age, ethnic minority women Great Britain Census 1991
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70 plus
perc
ent
ever
-mar
ried
White Black-Caribbean Black-African Black-other Black-other
Indian Pakistani Chinese Other-Asian Other-other
Births outside marriage: minorities in selected countries, 1978 - 1998 (percent)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Belgium Italians in Belgium Turks in Belgium Swiss
Italians in Switzerland Turks in Switzerland UK Indian in E&W
Pakistan in E&W Rest of Africa in E&W Caribbean in E&W
How marriage affects growth of ethnic minority populations
• 1. Migration in relation to marriage -Family reconstitution: reestablish family -Family formation to create new family or even primarily for migration
• 2. Arranged/endogamous/consanguineous marriage vs. free partner choice Measures, determines assimilation or minority formation. Affects growth through: - Fertility preferences of imported spouses - Creation of new ‘mixed’ ethnic groups
1.Migration in relation to marriage• Fundamental reason for growth of foreign /
ethnic minority populations in Europe post 1960s.
• Dependent / spouse migration continues to dominate migration streams to the West.
• Direct effect of numbers. • Indirect effects of (often) high fertility and
permanent ‘community’ formation.• Marriage migration replaces reconstitution
migration from 1980s. May accelerate?
Migration trends to Western European countries 1980 - 2002,various definitions
(1000s)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
thousands
gross inflow excluding asylum (SOPEMI) net immigration EU15
asylum (W Europe) gross inflow EU 15, non-nationals
Net immigration to EU15 1960 - 2001 (thousands)
EU 15 net migration 1960 - 2001 (thousands)
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
tho
us
and
s
EU 15 net migration (thousands)
Components of immigration flows to Western
Europe (OECD 2003)
Spouse migration to the UK 1973 - 2001 (thousands)
Spouse migration by sex and NC origin, UK 1973-2001
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
All husbands All wives NC wives NC husbands
Spouse migration as % gross foreign inflow to UK 1975 - 2001 (two versions)
Spouse migration as % gross foreign inflow to UK 1975 - 2001 (very crude)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
perc
ent
Spouses % acceptances Spouses % foreign non-asylum inflow
Displacement of family re-constitution migration by family formation migration UK 1982 - 1995
Entry clearance applications of females from the Indian sub-Continent 1982-1995, by duration of marriage
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
perc
ent
up to 1 year 1 to 10 years over 10 years
Displacement of family re-unification migration by family formation migration,
Netherlands 1995, 2002Non-asylum immigration to the Netherlands by purpose 1995, 2002
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
All
coun
trie
s19
95
All
coun
trie
s20
02
Asi
a 19
95
Asi
a 20
02
Mor
occo
199
5
Mor
occo
200
2
Tur
key
1995
Tur
key
2002
perc
ent
of n
on-a
sylu
m t
otal
Labour Family re-unification Union formation Dependants accompanying core family member
Macro / micro factors affecting migration for family formation
• Immigrant populations with prescriptive marriage patterns (race/caste/religion specific, consanguineous).
• New migration streams with similar prescriptive preferences.
• Weak or strong cultural change.
• Growth in size of appropriate age-group.
• Sending country pressures.
• Receiving country policies.
Theoretical expectations in demography of ethnic minorities
• ‘Characteristics’ theory: old fashioned FDT theory.
• ‘Minority status’ theory. Two options - fundamentalist ‘defensive structuring’; or accelerated transition for upward mobility.
• ‘Cultural particularism’ - new(ish) model FDT theory.
• General assumption of acculturation.
Theoretical disappointments
• Second generation marital choice may be same as / even more ‘traditional’ than first generation (Belgian, Dutch Muslims).
• Not a consistent finding (e.g. Asians in US).
• This ‘traditional’ behaviour may serve ‘modern’ ends.
• Arranged marriage may co-exist with modernisation of other demographic areas.
Growth of South Asian ethnic minority populations of marriageable age, GB 1981-01.
Trends in age-group size and spouse entry applications from Indian sub-Continent, Great Britain 1981-2001
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Wives/fiancees entry clearance applications, ISC Females 15-24 / 10, ISC
Modernisation of (some) demographic patterns 1. TFR trends of ethnic minority
populations, Great Britain LFS own-child)
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
TF
R
WhitesCaribbeansIndiansPakistanisBangladeshisBlack-AfricansChinese
Source: Labour Force Survey, 1979-1991; Quarterly Labour Force Survey, 1992-2001 (Autumn)
Modernisation of (some) demographic patterns 2. Age Specific Fertility Rates, Indian
women, UK, 1965-2001
0
50
100
150
200
250
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Bir
ths
pe
r 1
00
0 w
om
en
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
Source: Labour Force Survey, 1979-1991; Quarterly Labour Force Survey, 1992-2001 (Autumn)
Reversal of (other) demographic patterns 2. Age Specific Fertility Rates, Black-African women, UK,
1965-2001
0
50
100
150
200
250
30019
65
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Birt
hs p
er 1
000
wom
en
15-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-49
Source: Labour Force Survey, 1979-1991; Quarterly Labour Force Survey, 1992-2001 (Autumn)
2. Partner choice and the rise of new ‘mixed’ ethnic groups.
• Assortative unions tend to preserve ethnic characteristics – arranged marriages etc.
• More random partner choice can create ‘new’ groups of mixed origin.
• Choice of ethnic identity / ethnic mobility.• May increase or diminish group size.• Intergenerational transmission of values
important.
Current marriages / unions outside own group, Great Britain 1981, 1991 (percent)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mix
ed/O
ther
Wes
t Ind
ian
Afr
ican
Oth
er
Chi
nese
Indi
an
Ban
glad
eshi
Pak
ista
ni
per
cen
t m
arry
ing
outs
ide
own
gro
up
Females 1981 Females 1991 Males 1981 Males 1991
Current unions outside own group, Great Britain 1991-96, 1997-02 (percent).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Black-Caribbean
Black-African Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese
perc
ent
Women 1991-1996 Women 1997-2002 Men 1991-1996 Men 1997-2002
Ethnic endogamy rates by generation, Great Britain, current unions in 1991(percent). Source Berrington
1996.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Other Black-Other Black-Caribbean Other-Asian Black-African Pak/Ban Indian
Men, Second Men, First Women, Second Women, First
Ethnic groups of mixed origin, England and Wales 2001
All born in born born in born % of % of
birth- UK overseas UK overseas total non-white
places (1000s) (1000s) (1000s) (1000s) pop. pop.
All Mixed groups 661.0 524.3 136.7 79.3 20.7 1.3 14.6W/ Black Caribbean 237.4 222.9 14.5 93.9 6.1 0.5 5.3W/ Black African 78.9 52.9 26.0 67.1 32.9 0.2 1.7W/Asian 189.0 144.5 44.6 76.4 23.6 0.4 4.2Other mixed 155.7 104.0 51.7 66.8 33.2 0.3 3.4
Births of mixed origin by ethnic group of mother, Great Britain 1992 - 2000 (LFS)
40.7
35.3
16.6
12.8
8.9
4.11.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45C
hine
se
Car
ibbe
an
Bla
ck-
Afr
ican
Indi
an
Pak
ista
ni
Ban
glad
eshi
Whi
te
Ethnic Group of Mother
% M
ixed
Birt
hs
Source: Quarterly Labour Force Surveys, 1992-2001 (Autumn Quarters)
Populations of mixed origin, England and Wales 2001'Mixed White / Asian'
population, England and Wales Census 2001 (percent)
11.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90 +
percent of population
males females
'Mixed White / Black Caribbean' population, England and Wales Census
2001 (percent)
11.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90 +
percent of population
males females
Populations of mixed origin, England and Wales 2001
'Mixed White / Asian' population, England and Wales Census
2001 (percent)
11.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90 +
percent of population
males females
'Other Mixed' population, England and Wales Census
2001 (percent)
11.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90 +
percent of population
males females
Mixed populations by age compared with all ethnic, numbers and percent.
Mixed origin and non-mixed origin ethnic population, England and Wales 2001
(thousands)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0-4
10-1
4
20-2
4
30-3
4
40-4
4
50-5
4
60-6
4
70-7
4
80-8
4
90 +
Non-mixed ethnic population Mixed ethnic population
Mixed and non-mixed ethnic population as percent of total ethnic population, England
and Wales 2001
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0-4
10-1
4
20-2
4
30-3
4
40-4
4
50-5
4
60-6
4
70-7
4
80-8
4
90 +
Non-mixed ethnic population Mixed ethnic population
Population of mixed Caribbean origin compared with all Caribbean origin (numbers
and percent), England and Wales 2001.Unmixed Caribbean origin and Mixed
Caribbean origin population, England and Wales 2001 (thousands).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0-4
10-1
4
20-2
4
30-3
4
40-4
4
50-5
4
60-6
4
70-7
4
80-8
4
90 +
Unmixed Caribbean origin Mixed white/Caribbean
Mixed and non-mixed population as percent of total Caribbean ethnic population, England
and Wales 2001
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0-4
10-1
4
20-2
4
30-3
4
40-4
4
50-5
4
60-6
4
70-7
4
80-8
4
90 +
Mixed as percent of all Caribbean origin
Non-mixed as percent of all Caribbean origin
Fertility of populations of mixed origin (all combined)
TFR trends, women of mixed origin, GB 1979 - 2001, data and moving average.
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
Policies on migration and marriage
• Policies differ on age, status, duration of residence, suitability of accommodation.
• Facilitation of inflows for re-unification and new unions (Canada 2002, UK 1997).
• Anxiety about ‘arranged marriage’ in UK on social grounds.
• Age-restriction (24) on family re-union (Denmark 2002).
• EU enlargement and asylum flows change basis of eligible population.
Policies on migration for marriage – some criteria
• Citizenship of principal.• Possession of employment permit by principal.• Minimum age of partners.• Legally married or cohabiting.• Suitable housing available.• No charge on public funds.• Duration of time after arrival of principal.• Prior official approval for registration.• Primary purpose test.• Amsterdam Treaty 1999 and EU Directives
Conclusions• Marital behaviour of ethnic minorities:
-differs between groups, -often fails to conform to theory -not congruent with other demographic change.
• Union migration biggest open-ended migration channel, will define national ethnic composition.
• Trends in partner choice a major factor in future migration flows, and isolation / assimilation of ethnic populations.
• Inter-ethnic marriage may diminish or increase group size.
British Pakistani population projections 2001-2051 (thousands)
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
S 6 No mig, TFR 1.75 2016 S 8 Mig 12k, TFR 1.75 2016 S 9 No mig, TFR 2.05 2046-51
S 10 Mig 12k, TFR 2.05 2046-51 S 11 No mig, TFR 2.96 constant
Projected growth of population of immigrant or foreign origin 2000 - 2050 as percent of total population
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
3520
00
200
5
201
0
201
5
202
0
202
5
203
0
203
5
204
0
204
5
205
0
perc
ent
Germany medium variant USA medium variantNetherlands base scenario Denmark 2002-based UK high migration
Projected growth of population of immigrant or foreign origin 2000 - 2050 as percent of total population, with zero net
migration
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
perc
ent
Germany medium variant USA medium variant Denmark base scenario
Germany zero mig US zero mig Denmark zero mig
