DAC PROJECT Capacity Building in Balcan Countries for the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases Setting...

DAC PROJECTCapacity Building in Balcan Countriesfor the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases

Setting priorities for GHG emissions’ reduction

George MavrotasNATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS

Tirana – 08.04.2002

DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002

Structure of the presentation

Analysis of the current situation – Recognize priorities

Indicative measures and policies

Evaluation of the measures

Priorities according to local experts

Concluding remarks


Contribution of Greenhouse Gases in the EU

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

90 91 92 93 94 95 96

Year

MtCO2 equiv.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000 GDP

N2O CH4 CO2 GDP EU Kyoto target


Focus: Energy sector

1994

Services7%

Agricultural7%

Industry32%

Transport 28%

Energy transformation

20%

Residential6%

2900 kt CO2

CO2 emissions from the energy sector


Power generation characteristics

Installed capacity1446 MW hydro power 35 MW thermal power

Production 99% from hydro power (normal year: 4300 GWh)

Recognized problemsHigh T&D losses (~25%)Strong dependence on hydrological conditions


Measures and Policies for Electricity Generation

The future Further exploitation of hydro potential (now only 35%) It is unavoidable to cover the increased electricity

demand by thermal power plants (TPP) in order to enhance the security of supply (diversification of power supply mix)

Forecasted capacity of TPP till 2020 ~850 MWShare of TPP production ~40% in 2020

High PriorityReduce T&D lossesClean and efficient technologies for TPP units

Natural gas > Oil > Coal


Measures and Policies for the Demand Sectors

The aim should be 3-fold:To increase energy efficiency through

minimisation of energy losses

To upgrade existing infrastructure with new appliances/equipment

To introduce cleaner fuels and renewables


Measures and Policies for the Residential & Tertiary Sector

Reduction of thermal losses in existing buildings (insulation + double glazing)

Updating building specifications for new buildings

Buildings shading Use of low energy lamps Use of efficient domestic appliances Solar water heating systems Penetration of natural gas District heating CHP in large buildings (hotels, hospitals, etc)


Measures and Policies for the Industrial Sector

Improved maintenance of energy equipment

Energy conservation (reduction of losses)

Substitution of solids and oil with natural gas

Cogeneration with natural gas

Exploitation of biomass (agricultural residues)


Measures and Policies for the Transport Sector

Improved maintenance of private cars, trucks

and buses

Improvement of road network

Improvement in traffic lighting

Promotion of public transport

Increased natural gas in public transport


Evaluation of measures

Cost estimationCost per ton of CO2 saved (specific cost)

Contribution to CO2 emissions’ abatement

Marginal abatement cost curve Additional criteria

Ease of implementation (missing infrastructures, administrative-legislative barriers)

Environmental synergiesImpact on employment and regional

development


Cost per ton of CO2 saved

Comparison with the relative baseline scenario option Specify the reference unit (e.g. 1 household) and the

reference time period (e.g. 1 year)

Cost and CO2 emissions estimation for the baseline scenario option (without the measure)

Cost and CO2 emissions estimation with the measure implementation

measurebaseline

baselinemeasure

COCO

CostCostCostSpecific

22


CO2 abatement estimation

Specify the target year

Assume a penetration rate of the measure at target year

Estimate the CO2 abatement at target year: CO2ab=(CO2b-CO2m)ref_unit unitstarg_year penetration_rate


Evaluation of the measures: The case of Albania

Quantification of 26 measures in the energy sector

Residential sector: 9Services: 3 Industry: 5Transport: 1Agricultural: 1Energy Transformation: 7


Ranking according to the specific cost of measures

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Ranking according to the CO2 abatement in 2020

2020

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Marginal abatement cost curve for 2020

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0

100

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0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

kt CO2

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Comments

Almost all the studied measures are beneficial even from a financial point of view

Mostly energy conservation measures and some fuel-switch

In 2020 the potential of CO2 emissions abatement is about 7 Mt. It can be attained with measures that are also economical acceptable.


Example: Economy lamps

Baseline scenario: Incandescent lamps Base of calculations: 1 typical household (100 m2) Reference time period: 1 year

Incandescent lamps

Economy lamps

Lighting power 350 W 63 W

Annual consumption (2.5h/day)

315 kWh 57 kWh

Price of 1 lamp (100W18W)

1.1 € 18.9 €

Lifetime ~ 1 year ~ 8 years


Example: Economy lamps (2)

Annualized cost per lamp: Incandescent: 1.1 €Economy lamp: CRF(5%, 8 years)18.9 =0.155 18.9 = 2.93 €

Annualized cost per household: Incandescent: 5 lamps/household 1.1 €/lamp = 5.5 €Economy lamps: 5 lamps/household 2.93 €/lamp = 14.7 €

Annual electricity cost (~ 0.098 €/kWh): Incandescent: 0.098 €/kWh 315 kWh = 30.9 €Economy lamps: 0.098 €/kWh 57 kWh = 5.6 €



Total annual cost per household: Incandescent: 5.5 € + 30.9 € = 36.4 €Economy lamps: 14.7 € + 5.6 € = 20.3 €

Power generation data Transmission losses: 15%Average emission factor (2020): 0.263 kg CO2/kWh

Power generation CO2 emissions per household Incandescent: 0.263 315/(1- 0.15) = 97 kg CO2

Economy lamps: 0.263 57/(1- 0.15) = 18 kg CO2



Abatement cost: (20.3€ – 36.4€) / (97 kgCO2 – 18 kgCO2) = -204 €/ tCO2

Number of households in 2020: ~ 1,440,000 Penetration of the measure until 2020: ~ 50% CO2 abatement in 2020:

1,440,000 (97 kgCO2 – 18 kgCO2) 0.5 = 56.9 kt CO2


Priorities according to local experts (Oct. 2001)

ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION

low medium high

New hydro plants and other renewables (wind)

Natural gas

Modification in unit commitment

Reducing losses in transmission

INDUSTRY

low medium high

Substitution of coal and oil with NG

Cogeneration of Heat and Power (CHP)

Energy conservation


Questionnaire results (2)

RESIDENTIAL & TERTIARY SECTOR

low medium high

Thermal insulation improvements

Penetration of NG (assume LPG)

District Heating

DSM measures

Economy lamps

Solar collectors for hot water

CHP in tertiary (hospitals, hotels etc)



TRANSPORT

low medium high

Road network improvements

Promotion of Public transport means

Intervention in the fuels (NG, LPG, bio-diesel)

Traffic lights tuning

NG in public transport buses

AGRICULTURAL

low medium high

Geothermal energy in greenhouses

Energy crops (for biofuels)



LAND USE CHANGE & FORESTRY

low medium high

Effective forest-fire control

Rational use of forests - Reafforestation

WASTE MANAGEMENT

low medium high

Recycling (paper, glass, aluminium)

Bio-gas from landfills


Concluding remarks

Priorities: Further exploitation of natural gasSecure electricity supply with TPP using “clean” fuelsEnergy conservationExploitation of renewable energy sources

Criteria for the evaluation of measuresCost per ton of CO2 saved

CO2 abatement for target year

Applicability, synergies, employment

Current phase in Task 3 of DAC project: quantification of the measures

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