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DAILY IFOREX REPORT
23rd
AUG 2013
Taper Talks And Change In ECB Expectations Send Bond Prices Lower
Global Growth Fears Quelled After Chinese, Euro-Zone PMIs; AUD on Top
ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP
Signs of a stabilizing China and improvement in European growth prospects have helped cushion what has been deteriorating risk appetite this week. Mainly, global concerns have been manifested in the form of collapsing emerging markets, which has boosted those currencies with strong short-term growth momentum like the British Pound.
The calm developing, however, hasn’t necessarily made its way into FX markets. The Australian Dollar is the only currency to outperform the US Dollar today, though gains have been difficult to hold on to. Similarly, signs that the Euro-Zone may stay out of recession in the 3Q’13 haven’t produced a stronger Euro. In both of these cases, it is due to the turn in the US Dollar.
The release of yesterday’s July FOMC Minutes proved to be more ‘boom’ than ‘bust,’ as the Federal Reserve policymakers have made it abundantly clear that they are seeking to taper QE3 sooner than later.
This belief is largely predicated on the notable shift in the inflation discussion – more were concerned than at the June meeting that the upswing in US growth prospects would push inflation back to the Fed’s +2% medium-term goal sooner than later. Layering concerns in over asset bubbles in global equities and sovereign bonds, a clearer picture shows the stars are indeed aligning for a ‘Septaper.’
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW
1.3300 TGT 1.3280/1.3250
SL 1.3330
BUY USDJPY ABOVE 98.80
TGT 99.00/99.30 SL 98.50
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.5560 TGT 1.5540/1.5510
SL 1.5590
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.0003(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 31(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.10(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>76(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>29(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>53(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>75(BULLISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun Aug 4
23:30
AiG Performance of Services Index
Medium 39.4
41.5
Mon Aug 5
00:30
AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (JUL)
Medium 2.7%
2.4%
00:30
AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (JUL)
Low 0.5%
0.0%
01:00
NZD ANZ Commodity Price (JUL)
Low 0.6%
-3.7%
01:30
AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
Medium 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%
01:30
AUD Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) (2Q)
Low 0.0% -0.1% 2.0%
01:45
CNY HSBC/Markit Services PMI (JUL)
Medium 51.3
51.3
06:00
CHF UBS Real Estate Bubble Index (2Q)
Medium 1.20
1.17
07:45
EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL)
Low 48.7 46.5 45.8
07:50
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL F)
Low 48.6 48.3 48.3
07:55
EUR German
Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL F)
Medium 51.3 52.5 52.5
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (JUL F)
Medium 50.5 50.4 50.4
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL F)
Medium 49.8 49.6 49.6
08:30
EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (AUG)
Medium -4.9 -10.0 -12.6
08:30
GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL)
Medium 60.2 57.4 56.9
08:30
GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (JUL)
Low $1672M
-$1871M
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN)
Medium -0.9% -1.3% 0.3%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)
Low -0.5% -0.7% 1.1%
14:00
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (JUL)
Medium 56.0 53.1 52.2
15:45
USD Fed's Fisher Speaks on the Economy in Oregon
Low
21:00
USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Low
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
22:00
NZD ANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (JUL)
Low 9.6%
-7.8%
23:01
GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (JUL)
Low 2.2% 2.0% 1.4%
Tue
Aug 6 01:30
AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JUN)
Medium 602M 804M 507M
01:30
AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JUL)
Low -1.1%
-1.6%
01:30
AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (2Q)
Low 2.4% 1.0% 0.8%
01:30
AUD House Price Index (YoY) (2Q)
Low 5.1% 3.0% 3.3%
04:30 LIVE
AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (AUG 6)
High 2.50% 2.50% 2.75%
05:00
JPY Coincident Index (JUN P)
Medium 105.2 105.1 106.0
05:00
JPY Leading Index (JUN P)
Medium 107.0 107.3 110.7
07:00
GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (JUL)
Low 4.6% 4.3% 3.7%
07:00
GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Low 0.9% 0.5% 0.7%
08:02
GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (JUL)
Low 12.7%
13.4%
08:30
GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)
Medium 1.2% 0.8% -2.3%
08:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUN)
Medium 2.0% 1.0% -2.9%
08:30
GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN)
Low 1.1% 0.7% 0.0%
08:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUN)
Low 1.9% 1.0% -0.7%
09:00 LIVE
EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q P)
Medium -2.0% -2.2% -2.4%
09:00 LIVE
EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (2Q P)
Low -0.2% -0.4% -0.6%
10:00
EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN)
Medium 4.3% 0.3% -2.0%
10:00
EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
Low 3.8% 1.0% -0.5%
12:30
USD Trade Balance (JUN)
Medium
-$43.5B -$45.0B
12:30
CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (JUN)
Low
-0.51B -0.30B
14:00
GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (JUL)
High
0.6%
14:00
USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (AUG)
Low
47.5 47.1
14:00
USD JOLTs Job Openings (JUN)
Low
3895 3828
17:00
USD Fed's Evans speaks to reporters in Chicago
Low
22:45
NZD Unemployment Rate (2Q)
High
6.3% 6.2%
22:45
NZD Employment Change (YoY) (2Q)
Medium
0.7% 0.3%
22:45
NZD Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (2Q)
Low
0.6% 1.0%
22:45
NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (2Q)
Low
0.3% 1.7%
22:45
NZD Private Wages inc Overtime (QoQ) (2Q)
Low
0.5% 0.3%
22:45
NZD Participation Rate (QoQ) (2Q)
Low
67.9% 67.8%
22:45
NZD Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (2Q)
Low
0.5% 0.4%
23:30
AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (JUL)
Medium
39.5
23:50
JPY Official Reserve Assets (JUL)
Low
$1238.7B
Wed
Aug 7 01:30
AUD Home Loans (JUN)
Medium
2.0% 1.8%
01:30
AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (JUN)
Medium
2.3%
01:30
AUD Investment Lending (JUN)
Low
1.5%
05:45
CHF SECO Consumer Confidence (JUL)
Medium
-1 -5
07:00
CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (JUL)
Low
431.0B 434.8B
07:15
CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
0.2%
07:15
CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
-0.1% -0.1%
07:15
CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.2%
07:15
CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUL)
Low
-0.4% 0.1%
08:30
GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (JUL)
Low
-33
09:30 LIVE
GBP Bank of England Inflation Report
High
10:00
EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (JUN)
Medium
-0.3% -1.0%
10:00
EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
Low
0.3% -1.0%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 2)
Low
-3.7%
12:30
CAD Building Permits (MoM) (JUN)
Medium
-1.2% 4.5%
14:00
CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (JUL)
Medium
56.0 55.3
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (AUG 2)
Low
-1904K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 2)
Low
431K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (AUG 2)
Low
-466K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (AUG 2)
Low
770K
16:30
USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Economy in Washington
Low
17:40
USD Fed's Pianalto Speaks on Monetary Policy in Cleveland
Low
19:00
USD Consumer Credit (JUN)
Medium
$15.000B $19.615B
23:50
JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
1.9% 1.9%
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (AUG 2)
Medium
¥233.2B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (AUG 2)
Medium
-¥154.9B
23:50
JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (JUN)
Medium
-¥128.7B -¥906.7B
23:50
JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (JUN)
Low
¥727.3B ¥623.3B
23:50
JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (JUL)
Low
2.2%
23:50
JPY BoP Current Account Balance (YoY) (JUN)
Low
-3.5% 58.1%
23:50
JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (JUN)
Low
¥396.5B ¥540.7B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (AUG 2)
Low
-¥430.3B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (AUG 2)
Low
-¥61.8B
23:50
JPY Housing Loans (YoY) (2Q)
Low
3.2%
Thu
Aug 8
JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement
High
JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (AUG 8)
High
CNY Trade Balance (JUL)
Medium
$25.90B $27.12B
JPY BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (AUG 8)
Medium
¥270T
USD MBA Mortgage Foreclosures (2Q)
Low
3.6%
USD Mortgage Delinquencies (2Q)
Low
7.3%
CNY Exports (YoY) (JUL)
Low
1.5% -3.1%
CNY Imports (YoY) (JUL)
Low
1.0% -0.7%
00:00
NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (JUL)
Low
7.6%
01:30
AUD Employment Change (JUL)
High
6.0K 10.3K
01:30
AUD Unemployment Rate (JUL)
High
5.8% 5.7%
01:30
AUD Full Time Employment Change (JUL)
Medium
-4.4K
01:30
AUD Part Time Employment Change (JUL)
Low
14.8K
01:30
AUD Participation Rate (JUL)
Low
65.3% 65.3%
02:00
JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (JUL)
Low
8.46
04:30
JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
-8.0%
05:00
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JUL)
Medium
54.1 53.6
05:00
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JUL)
Low
53.5 53
05:45
CHF Unemployment Rate (JUL)
Medium
2.9% 2.9%
05:45
CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUL)
Medium
3.2% 3.2%
06:00
EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JUN)
Medium
15.0B 13.1B
06:00
EUR German Current Account (euros) (JUN)
Low
17.0B 11.2B
06:00
EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
Low
1.0% -2.4%
06:00
EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
Low
0.0% 1.7%
06:30
AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (JUL)
Low
A$51.9B
08:00
EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report
High
12:30
CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (JUN)
Medium
1.8%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 3)
Medium
335K 326K
12:30
CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (JUN)
Low
0.1%
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (JUL 27)
Low
2951K
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (AUG 2)
Low
59
22:45
NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (JUL)
Medium
1.2%
22:45
NZD Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.4% 1.1%
23:50
JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JUN)
Medium
-0.4% 1.2%
23:50
JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (JUL)
Low
3.8% 3.8%
23:50
JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (JUL)
Low
3.1% 3.0%
Fri
Aug 9 01:30
CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)
High
2.8% 2.7%
01:30
CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
-2.1% -2.7%
05:00
JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for August
Medium
05:00
JPY Consumer Confidence Index (JUL)
Medium
45.0 44.3
05:30
CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
20.0% 20.1%
05:30
CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
9.3%
05:30
CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
8.8% 8.9%
05:30
CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
12.7%
05:30
CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)
Medium
13.4% 13.3%
08:30
GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUN)
Medium
-£2350 -£2435
08:30
GBP Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
Low
0.0%
08:30
GBP Construction Output s.a. (YoY) (JUN)
Low
-4.8%
08:30
GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (JUN)
Low
-£4093
08:30
GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUN)
Low
-£8500 -£8491
12:15
CAD Housing Starts (JUL)
Medium
191.0K 199.6K
12:30
CAD Net Change in Employment (JUL)
High
6.0K -0.4K
12:30
CAD Unemployment Rate (JUL)
High
7.1% 7.1%
12:30
CAD Full Time Employment Change (JUL)
Medium
-32.4
12:30
CAD Part Time Employment Change (JUL)
Low
32.2
12:30
CAD Participation Rate (JUL)
Low
66.7
14:00
USD Wholesale Inventories (JUN)
Medium
0.4% -0.5%
14:00
USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (JUN)
Low
0.7% 1.6%
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