Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange 09 June 2013 TASI 7,645.65 Volume Value Trades Market Commentary Global markets: Week ahead Investors concerns that the Fed might reduce bon sooner than expected were mitigated after a mod payroll data. The data was neither too weak nor t stoke any kind of speculations. Meanwhile, in the economic data calendar is light. The US Retail sa consumer sentiment data are scheduled to be rele Thursday and Friday respectively. The US Produc is set for release on Friday and is forecasted to ris May. On the other hand, most Asian stocks fell on of US jobs data. With the US jobs data coming in markets, it is expected that the Asian markets as witness some buying interest. TASI continues to gain • TASI began the week on an upbeat note as it end the session at 7,645.7. Banking and Petr sector were the major gainers rising 0.5% an respectively. Trading turnover grew by 5.1% Wednesday to SAR6.2bn on Saturday. • Market breadth was positive as 92 stocks gai stocks ended the session in red. Market heav gained 0.8%, while AL Rajhi remained unch favorites Zain and Dar Al Arkan gained 10% Outlook We expect TASI to open on a flattish note amid la economic cues. Technically, TASI is hovering nea level of 7,685. The index could witness some cons fails to decisively break above this level. GCC Indices Close 1D% WTD% Saudi Arabia 7,645.7 0.4 0.4 Qatar 9,290.3 -0.2 0.6 Dubai 2,421.6 0.0 2.3 Abu Dhabi 3,599.3 0.0 1.0 Kuwait 8,028.0 0.0 -3.3 Oman 6,498.1 0.0 1.2 Bahrain 1,201.4 -0.7 0.4 Global Indices Performance Close 1D% DJ Industrial 15,248.12 1.4 S&P 500 1,643.38 1.3 Nikkei 225 12,877.53 -0.2 Hang Seng 21,575.26 -1.2 FTSE 100 6,411.99 1.2 CAC 40 3,872.59 1.5 0.42% 260.0mn Tel: +966 1 SAR6,155.4mn 121,168 TASI Intra-day Movement nd-buying dest monthly US too strong to e coming week ales and eased on cer Price Index se just 0.1% in n Friday ahead n the favor of well could t gained 0.4% to rochemical nd 0.4% from ined while 36 vyweight SABIC hanged. Trading each. ack of global ar its resistance solidation if it Source: Bloomberg Saudi Market Indices Index Close C Tadawul All Share Index 7,645.7 Banks & Financial Services 16,712.3 Petrochemical Industries 6,217.7 Cement 6,942.2 Retail 9,696.6 Energy & Utilities 4,751.0 Agriculture & Food Ind. 8,098.1 Telecom & IT 2,415.8 Insurance 1,233.2 Multi-Investment 3,597.6 Industrial Investment 6,544.1 Building & Construction 3,261.9 Real Estate Development 4,397.6 Transport 4,903.0 Media and Publishing 2,828.5 Hotel & Tourism 11,674.7 Source: Tadawul MTD% YTD% Value Traded (USD mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. (USD mn) 3.3 12.4 1,641.27 408,941.5 0.6 11.1 95.0 109,105.5 2.3 49.3 229.9 48,374.7 1.0 36.8 75.3 94,354.1 -3.3 35.3 237.5 111,337.6 1.2 12.8 31.3 17,263.3 0.4 12.7 1.3 17,607.6 7,630 7,642 7,654 7,666 7,678 11:00 12:00 13:00 WTD% YTD% Asset/Currency Performance C 0.9 16.4 Gold(US$) 1,38 0.8 15.2 Silver(US$) 2 -6.5 23.9 Crude Oil (Brent)(US$) 10 -3.6 -4.8 Euro(US$) -2.6 8.7 USD Index 8 -1.9 6.4 JPY(US$) 9 Research Department [email protected]1 211 9332/ Fax: +966 1 2119422 Change (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) 0.4 3.3 12.4 0.5 6.4 14.1 0.4 2.2 6.2 0.5 1.9 14.5 1.1 1.5 29.2 0.4 1.5 -0.8 1.5 3.6 22.9 -0.8 1.8 11.6 0.5 1.0 -9.4 1.1 1.4 -2.7 0.0 0.8 3.6 -0.1 0.9 15.7 0.5 3.0 31.5 0.4 0.9 0.8 -0.6 -3.9 -2.8 1.3 1.8 61.0 P/E P/B Dividend Yield% 16.3 2.0 3.6 11.8 1.7 5.0 15.6 1.0 3.5 11.0 1.3 4.9 24.6 1.4 3.3 11.3 1.7 4.3 8.7 0.8 4.1 14:00 15:00 Close 1D% WTD% YTD% 83.05 -2.2 -0.4 -17.4 21.66 -4.4 -2.7 -28.6 04.52 1.2 4.5 -7.4 1.32 -0.2 1.7 0.2 81.67 0.2 -2.0 2.4 97.56 0.6 -2.9 12.5
Transcript
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 June 2013
TASI 7,645.65
Volume
Value
Trades
Market Commentary
Global markets: Week ahead
Investors concerns that the Fed might reduce bond
sooner than expected were mitigated after a modest monthly US
payroll data. The data was neither too weak nor too strong to
stoke any kind of speculations. Meanwhile, in the coming week
economic data calendar is light. The US Retail sales and
consumer sentiment data are scheduled to be release
Thursday and Friday respectively. The US Producer Price Index
is set for release on Friday and is forecasted to rise just 0.1% in
May. On the other hand, most Asian stocks fell on Friday ahead
of US jobs data. With the US jobs data coming in the favor of
markets, it is expected that the Asian markets as well could
witness some buying interest.
TASI continues to gain
• TASI began the week on an upbeat note as it gained 0.4% to
end the session at 7,645.7. Banking and Petrochemical
sector were the major gainers rising 0.5% and 0.4%
respectively. Trading turnover grew by 5.1% from
Wednesday to SAR6.2bn on Saturday.
• Market breadth was positive as 92 stocks gained while 36
stocks ended the session in red. Market heavyweight SABIC
gained 0.8%, while AL Rajhi remained unchanged. Trading
favorites Zain and Dar Al Arkan gained 10% each.
Outlook
We expect TASI to open on a flattish note amid lack of global
economic cues. Technically, TASI is hovering near its resistance
level of 7,685. The index could witness some consolidation if it
fails to decisively break above this level.
GCC Indices Close 1D% WTD%
Saudi Arabia 7,645.7 0.4 0.4
Qatar 9,290.3 -0.2 0.6
Dubai 2,421.6 0.0 2.3
Abu Dhabi 3,599.3 0.0 1.0
Kuwait
8,028.0 0.0 -3.3
Oman 6,498.1 0.0 1.2
Bahrain 1,201.4 -0.7 0.4
Global Indices Performance Close 1D%
DJ Industrial 15,248.12 1.4
S&P 500 1,643.38 1.3
Nikkei 225 12,877.53 -0.2
Hang Seng 21,575.26 -1.2
FTSE 100 6,411.99 1.2
CAC 40 3,872.59 1.5
0.42%
260.0mn
Tel: +966 1 211 9332
SAR6,155.4mn
121,168
TASI Intra-day Movement
Investors concerns that the Fed might reduce bond-buying
sooner than expected were mitigated after a modest monthly US
payroll data. The data was neither too weak nor too strong to
e any kind of speculations. Meanwhile, in the coming week
Retail sales and
released on
Thursday and Friday respectively. The US Producer Price Index
to rise just 0.1% in
ost Asian stocks fell on Friday ahead
US jobs data coming in the favor of
markets, it is expected that the Asian markets as well could
TASI began the week on an upbeat note as it gained 0.4% to
end the session at 7,645.7. Banking and Petrochemical
sector were the major gainers rising 0.5% and 0.4%
respectively. Trading turnover grew by 5.1% from
Market breadth was positive as 92 stocks gained while 36
stocks ended the session in red. Market heavyweight SABIC
gained 0.8%, while AL Rajhi remained unchanged. Trading
favorites Zain and Dar Al Arkan gained 10% each.
ect TASI to open on a flattish note amid lack of global
economic cues. Technically, TASI is hovering near its resistance
level of 7,685. The index could witness some consolidation if it
Retail Energy & Utilities Agriculture & Food Industries
Telecommunication & Information Technology Insurance Multi-Investment
Industrial Investment Building & Construction Real Estate Development
Transport Media and Publishing Hotel & Tourism
52 Week New High / Low Stocks Consistently Gaining / Losing Over Last 3Sessions
Company Closing Price
(SAR) New High New Low
Company Current Price
(SAR) 3 Days
Change % 3 Days Avg. Volume (mn)
Arab National Bank 31.5 31.5 - Shams 108.5 11.0 0.8
Bank Albilad 26.4 27.0 -
Al Abdullatif Industrial Investment Co 40.6 10.0 0.4
Makkah Construction and Development Co 61.3 62.3
- Makkah Construction and Development Co 61.25 8.9 0.5
Najran Cement Co 27.9 28.2 - Bank Albilad 26.4 6.0 1.5
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 June 2013
` 3
Tadawul Technical Watch
Technical Outlook Pivot Table
TASI gained but the index
was not able to break its
trend line resistance level of
7,685. The index made a new
52 week high of 7,683.13.
The RSI is still in the
overbought zone, while the
MACD line is diverging away
from the signal line on the
upside. We expect TASI to
consolidate at current level
with a positive bias.
Symbol R2 R1 PP S1 S2
TASI 7,717.16 7,681.40 7,647.38 7,611.62 7,577.60
Tadawul All Shares Index
Stocks Closest to Resistance Stocks Closest to Support
Company Closing Price
(SAR) R1 R2 PP Company
Closing Price (SAR)
S1 S2 PP
Al Jouf Agricultural Development Co 42.30 42.40 42.50 42.20
Jarir Marketing Co 193.25 191.75 190.25 192.50
Rabigh Refining & Petrochemicals Co 16.05 16.10 16.15 16.05
City Cement Co 24.90 24.75 24.60 24.85
Northern Region Cement Co 20.95 21.02 21.08 20.93
National Gas & Industrialization Co 20.75 20.58 20.42 20.67
Saudi Cement 101.00 101.33 101.67 100.92 Al Babtain Power &
Telecommunication Co 24.90 24.80 24.70 24.90
Saudi Arabian Fertilizer Co 149.00 149.50 150.00 149.00
Saudi Basic Industries Corp 95.25 94.92 94.58 95.33
Saudi Industrial Services Co 14.20 14.25 14.30 14.20
Al Jouf Cement Co 18.20 18.13 18.07 18.22
Saudi Industrial Investment Group 26.90 27.00 27.10 26.90
Alinma Bank 14.30 14.27 14.23 14.33
Al Qassim Agricultural Development Co 13.20 13.25 13.30 13.20
Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance Co 24.85 24.77 24.68 24.88
Saudi Electricity Co 13.10 13.15 13.20 13.10
MEDGULF 21.30 21.20 21.10 21.30
Source: Tadawul
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 June 2013
` 4
Tadawul Technical Watch
Technical Outlook SABIC
SABIC is currently hovering
near its resistance zone of
SAR95.50 to SAR95.00. The
RSI is making higher tops,
while the MACD line is
pointing upwards. We expect
SABIC to gain if the stock
breaks above this resistance
level.
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
96.08 95.67 95.33 94.92 94.58
Saudi Basic Industries Corp.
Technical Outlook STC
STC declined significantly
and ended the session near
its lowest point of the day
indicating further weakness
in the price action. The stock
decline as it was not able to
break its resistance level of
SAR43.10. The RSI is
trending downwards, while
the MACD line is about to
converge with the signal line.
We expect STC to decline
further if it remains below
SAR42.10.
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
43.30 42.60 42.20 41.50 41.10
Saudi Telecom Co.
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 June 2013
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Tadawul Technical Watch
Technical Outlook Al Rajhi
Al Rajhi remained
unchanged as the stock
failed to decisively break its
resistance level of SAR72.00.
The stock has formed a doji
candle stick pattern
indicating that it might
witness some profit booking.
The RSI is in the overbought
zone, while the MACD line is
indicating consolidation. We
expect Al Rajhi to
consolidate at current level
with a negative bias if it fails
to decisively break its
resistance level of SAR72.0.
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
73.33 72.67 72.08 71.42 70.83
Al Rajhi Bank
Technical Outlook KAYAN
Kayan declined as the stock
was not able to hold on the
resistance breakout at
SAR11.75. On hourly chart,
the RSI and MACD are
indicating weakness in the
stock. We expect Kayan to
decline if the stock remains
below SAR11.75.
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
11.83 11.77 11.73 11.67 11.63
Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co.
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 June 2013
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Tadawul Technical Watch
Technical Outlook MA’ADEN
MA’ADEN gained but the
stock ended the session near
its immediate trend line
resistance at SAR30.75. The
RSI is making higher tops,
while the MACD line is
diverging away from the
signal line on the upside. We
expect MA’ADEN to gain if
the stock decisively breaks
its resistance level of
SAR30.75
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
31.00 30.80 30.60 30.40 30.20
Saudi Arabian Mining Co.
Major GCC Companies
Technical Outlook EMAAR – Dubai Financial Market
Emaar declined for third consecutive trading session and closed below its 12 days and 21 days moving averages indicating loss of short-term buying interest. The RSI is trending downwards and retreating from the overbought zone. The MACD has given a negative crossover. We expect Emaar to consolidate with negative bias. The next immediate support is at AED5.70.
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
5.90 5.85 5.76 5.71 5.62
Emaar Properties
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 June 2013
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GCC Technical Watch
Technical Outlook ARTC
As expected Arabtec gained
on Thursday, after it formed
a doji candlestick pattern on
Wednesday. The RSI is
sharply tilted upwards. The
MACD is also trending
higher. We expect Arabtec to
gain further, if it closes
above its resistance level of
AED2.19.
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
2.28 2.22 2.14 2.08 2.00
Arabtec Holding Co.
Technical Outlook DANA
After declining for two days,
Dana Gas closed forming a
doji pattern on Thursday.
Doji pattern at this level
signifies trend reversal. Both
momentum indicators RSI
and MACD are still trending
downwards. Dana Gas will
gain further if it breaches its
resistance in form of its 12
day moving average
(currently at AED0.59).
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
0.60 0.60 0.58 0.58 0.56
Dana Gas
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 June 2013
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GCC Technical Watch
Technical Outlook IQCD
Industries Qatar declined further and closed near its immediate horizontal support line at QR163.50. The RSI and MACD are trending downwards reflecting selling pressure is prevailing on the stock. We support the bearish outlook and expect industries Qatar to trade with a negative bias. Further downfall is expected if it is not able to sustain above its support line at QR163.50.
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
166.33 165.67 164.53 163.87 162.73
Industries Qatar
Technical Outlook KFIN
As expected Kuwait Finance declined, after showing doji pattern in the previous trading session. It closed below its 55 days moving average signifying loss of long-term buying interest in the stock. Both momentum indicators RSI and MACD have continued its sharp decline certifying selling pressure prevailing over stock at this level. We expect Kuwait Finance to decline further. Next immediate horizontal support is at KD714.45.
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
740.00 730.00 720.00 710.00 700.00
Kuwait Finance House
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 June 2013
` 9
Definition - Technical Indicators
Candlestick Patterns, Doji
Doji is a form of candlestick pattern. It normally suggests major up and down movements. Trading above the Doji is positive for the market. Trading below the Doji value
indicates bearish momentum.
Hammer
A small body (white or black) near the high with a long lower shadow with little or no upper shadow. This indicates a bullish pattern during a downtrend.
Inverse-black-hammer: A bottom reversal signal with confirmation the next trading day.
Moving Average, SMA (Simple Moving Average)
Normally we use the 10, 20, 50 and 125 day SMA to identify the trend. A cross-over of the short-term moving average with the long-term moving average is positive for
the market. The reverse is the case on the negative side.
DEMA - Double-smoothed Exponential Moving Average
We use the 10, 20 and 40 DEMA to identify a trend. A cross-over of the 10 and 20 DEMA gives a positive indication. A cross-over of the 20 and 10 DEMA gives a negative
indication. As long as a stock or index trades above the 40 DEMA, this gives a positive indication for the stock or index. Trading below the 40 DEMA may create downside
for a short time.
MACD - Moving Average Convergence and Divergence
The MACD has its own line period and another signal line; the dotted line indicates the signal line. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above
it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.
RSI - Relative Strength Index
When the RSI remains below 30, it indicates that a market or stock is in oversold territory. When the RSI is above 70, it indicates that the market/stock is in an
overbought level.
Price ROC
When the Price ROC is above zero it gives positive signals for an index or stock. When the price ROC is below zero, it gives a negative signal for the index or stock.
Stochastic Oscillators
When Stochastic Oscillators are below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone and some bounce back is expected. When Stochastic Oscillators are above zero, the stock is in
an overbought zone and some correction is expected.
Williams’ %R
When Williams’ %R is above zero, the stock is in an overbought zone and some correction is expected. When Williams’ %R is below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone
and some bounce back is expected.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index)
While the CCI was originally designed for commodities, the indicator also works very well with stocks and mutual funds.
There are two methods of interpreting the CCI:
1. Looking for divergences: A popular method of analyzing the CCI is to look for divergences in which the underlying security is making new highs while the CCI is failing
to surpass its previous highs. This classic divergence is usually followed by a correction in the security's price.
2. As an overbought/oversold indicator: The CCI usually oscillates between +/-100. Readings outside these ranges imply an overbought/oversold condition.
Fibonacci Retracements
Fibonacci Retracements are based on a trend line that we draw between a significant trough and peak. If the trend line is rising, the retracement lines will project
downward; if the trend line is falling, the retracement lines will project upward. The number of Fibonacci Retracement levels appearing on the chart depends on the
range of the y-axis. If we want to see all nine retracement levels, we may need to manually adjust the minimum and maximum values of the y-axis. Major Fibonacci
Levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.
Whipsaw
A whipsaw is a situation in which a share price heads in one direction, but then is followed quickly by a movement in the opposite direction. The origin of the term is the
push and pull action used by lumberjacks to cut wood with a type of saw of the same name.
Gravestone Doji
In a Japanese Candle Stick chart, this is a Doji candle where prices rallied but came back and closed at the level they started; the open and close are equal.
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 June 2013
` 10
Inside Bar
An inside bar is a bar, which is completely within the range of the preceding bar, i.e. it has a higher low and lower high than the bar immediately before it. An inside bar
indicates a time of indecision or consolidation. On a smaller time frame, it will look like a triangle. Inside bars often occur at tops and bottoms, in continuation flags, and
at key decision points like major support/resistance levels and consolidation breakouts.
Big Bar
A big bar is a bar, which is bigger than the preceding bar, i.e. it has a lower low and higher high than the bar immediately before it. Normally, after, forming a big bar, for
a coming few sessions, the stock may move in the range of the high and low of the big bar. Breaking out or breaking down will give a fresh bullish or bearish pattern.
Higher High
This implies that today’s intra-day high is higher than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s).
Lower High
This implies that today’s intra-day high is lower than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s).
Higher Low
This implies that today’s intra-day low is higher than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s).
Lower Low
This implies that today’s intra-day low is lower than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s).
Triangle
This is a technical analysis pattern created by drawing trend lines along a price range that gets narrower over time because of lower tops and higher bottoms. Variations
of a triangle include ascending and descending triangles. Technical analysts see a breakout of this triangular pattern as either bullish (on a breakout above the upper line)
or bearish (on a breakout below the lower line).
Standard Error Channel
Parallel lines drawn higher and lower from the Linear Regression Trend-line form Standard Error Channels. The distance at which they are traced is a certain
number of standard errors over or above the linear regression trend-line. The characteristic of the price fluctuations is its movement from one extreme to another and it
depends on the traders' common opinion. Prices trend up in the optimistic market whether a pessimistic one causes prices reduction. The prices are drawn to a certain
equilibrium point existing for each issue. The location of such point can be found out by using the Linear Regression analysis whether Standard Error Channel analysis
presents the data about the cyclic direction of the prices as well as the forecasts for possible trend changes.
Long Headed Doji Pattern
This is a bullish signal, particularly when around price support levels.
Double Tops / Double Bottoms
A double top is simply two peaks. After the second peak is formed a breakout through the base is a signal of a possible reversal of the trend in prices. In the case of a
double bottom, two troughs form and an expectation follow for the possibility of a trend reversal if the market price rises through the base. Waiting for confirmation is
important for trading double tops or double bottoms.
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 June 2013
` 11
Disclaimer
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