Page 1 of 13 Research Department 12 October 2020 Daily Outlook GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | O I L | GLOBAL ECONOMIES Japan's inflation-adjusted real wages fell for the sixth straight month in August, reflecting a big drop in overtime pay due to the impact on the labour market from the COVID-19 pandemic, government data showed on Friday. Labour ministry data showed real wages, a key barometer of households' purchasing power, dropped 1.4% in August from a year earlier, following a downwardly revised 1.8% decline in July. Japan's household spending fell for an 11th straight month in August and real wages marked half a year of declines, as consumers struggled to return to their pre-pandemic purchasing habits. Household spending declined 6.9% in August from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday. The recovery in China’s service sector activity extended into a fifth straight month in September, an industry survey showed on Friday, with hiring increasing for the second month in a row. The Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 54.8 from August’s 54.0, the highest reading since June and staying well above the 50-mark that separates monthly growth from contraction. Business failures in Australia are likely to rise with commercial property seen among the hardest hit sectors as a shift to work-from-home arrangements empties offices and major retail precincts, the central bank said on Friday. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said the outlook for commercial property means banks’ impairment rates will likely climb from current low levels while some indebted landlords will find it difficult to meet their debt repayments. Britain's economy struggled to grow in August, setting back its recovery from the coronavirus lockdown, and finance minister Rishi Sunak was due to announce more help to slow a rise in jobs losses as a second wave of COVID-19 infections hits. Gross domestic product rose by 2.1% from July, official data showed, not even half the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists and the slowest increase since the economy began to recover in May from a record slump. British finance minister Rishi Sunak took fresh steps on Friday to try to stave off a surge in unemployment, offering extra help for businesses and people who are forced to stop work during local coronavirus lockdowns. In a move likely to cost billions of pounds over the six-month duration of the new scheme, Sunak said the government would pay up to two-thirds of employees’ salaries, capped at 2,100 pounds ($2,725) a month each, if they work for companies that are forced to close temporarily. European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier wants a few more concessions from Britain before entering the last intense phase of negotiations on a trade deal, an EU diplomat said on Friday, as an Oct. 15 deadline looms. The two chief negotiators, Barnier and Britain's David Frost, say they are inching towards a deal, though they have underscored that important gaps remain on fishing, level playing field issues and governance. Both sides have no-deal plans. Canada added 378,200 jobs in September and the unemployment rate fell to 9.0%, handily beating analyst expectations, as children returned to school and the economy continued to reopen from coronavirus shutdowns, Statistics Canada said on Friday. Canada on Friday announced a round of new and enhanced support for businesses impacted by the coronavirus pandemic, including a new rent subsidy program to replace its previous, and much criticized, rent-relief program. The Canada Emergency Rent Subsidy program will provide direct support to businesses and other organizations that are facing revenue losses, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said in a news conference. The program will run through June 2021. U.S. wholesale inventories rose less than initially estimated in August, suggesting inventories were likely to build slowly after sliding in the early months of the coronavirus pandemic. The Commerce Department said on Friday that wholesale inventories increased 0.4% in August, instead of rising 0.5% as estimated last month. Stocks at wholesalers fell 0.2% in July. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin failed on Friday to reach agreement on a COVID-19 stimulus package, while the top Senate Republican voiced doubt that Congress would act before the Nov. 3 election. The new package carried a price tag of $1.8 trillion, according to the Wall Street Journal, up from an earlier $1.6 trillion offer. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he would like to see a bigger coronavirus stimulus package than either Democrats or Republicans are offering, after previously calling off negotiations to reach the long-sought deal.
Transcript
Page 1 of 13
Research Department 12 October 2020
Daily Outlook GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | O I L |
GLOBAL ECONOMIES
Japan's inflation-adjusted real wages fell for the sixth straight month in August, reflecting a big drop in overtime pay due to the impact on the labour market from the COVID-19 pandemic, government data showed on Friday. Labour ministry data showed real wages, a key barometer of households' purchasing power, dropped 1.4% in August from a year earlier, following a downwardly revised 1.8% decline in July.
Japan's household spending fell for an 11th straight month in August and real wages marked half a year of declines, as consumers struggled to return to their pre-pandemic purchasing habits. Household spending declined 6.9% in August from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday.
The recovery in China’s service sector activity extended into a fifth straight month in September, an industry survey showed on Friday, with hiring increasing for the second month in a row. The Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 54.8 from August’s 54.0, the highest reading since June and staying well above the 50-mark that separates monthly growth from contraction.
Business failures in Australia are likely to rise with commercial property seen among the hardest hit sectors as a shift to work-from-home arrangements empties offices and major retail precincts, the central bank said on Friday. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said the outlook for commercial property means banks’ impairment rates will likely climb from current low levels while some indebted landlords will find it difficult to meet their debt repayments.
Britain's economy struggled to grow in August, setting back its recovery from the coronavirus lockdown, and finance minister Rishi Sunak was due to announce more help to slow a rise in jobs losses as a second wave of COVID-19 infections hits. Gross domestic product rose by 2.1% from July, official data showed, not even half the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists and the slowest increase since the economy began to recover in May from a record slump.
British finance minister Rishi Sunak took fresh steps on Friday to try to stave off a surge in unemployment, offering extra help for businesses and people who are forced to stop work during local coronavirus lockdowns. In a move likely to cost billions of pounds over the six-month duration of the new scheme, Sunak said the government would pay up to two-thirds of employees’ salaries, capped at 2,100 pounds ($2,725) a month each, if they work for companies that are forced to close temporarily.
European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier wants a few more concessions from Britain before entering the last intense phase of negotiations on a trade deal, an EU diplomat said on Friday, as an Oct. 15 deadline looms. The two chief negotiators, Barnier and Britain's David Frost, say they are inching towards a deal, though they have underscored that important gaps remain on fishing, level playing field issues and governance. Both sides have no-deal plans.
Canada added 378,200 jobs in September and the unemployment rate fell to 9.0%, handily beating analyst expectations, as children returned to school and the economy continued to reopen from coronavirus shutdowns, Statistics Canada said on Friday.
Canada on Friday announced a round of new and enhanced support for businesses impacted by the coronavirus pandemic, including a new rent subsidy program to replace its previous, and much criticized, rent-relief program. The Canada Emergency Rent Subsidy program will provide direct support to businesses and other organizations that are facing revenue losses, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said in a news conference. The program will run through June 2021.
U.S. wholesale inventories rose less than initially estimated in August, suggesting inventories were likely to build slowly after sliding in the early months of the coronavirus pandemic. The Commerce Department said on Friday that wholesale inventories increased 0.4% in August, instead of rising 0.5% as estimated last month. Stocks at wholesalers fell 0.2% in July.
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin failed on Friday to reach agreement on a COVID-19 stimulus package, while the top Senate Republican voiced doubt that Congress would act before the Nov. 3 election. The new package carried a price tag of $1.8 trillion, according to the Wall Street Journal, up from an earlier $1.6 trillion offer.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he would like to see a bigger coronavirus stimulus package than either Democrats or Republicans are offering, after previously calling off negotiations to reach the long-sought deal.
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Research Department 12 October 2020
The White House is willing to increase the amount of funding it accepts for a coronavirus stimulus bill that it is negotiating with U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, but wants to keep it under $2 trillion, spokeswoman Alyssa Farah told reporters on Friday. Talks are back on for the aid package after Trump called them off earlier this week, with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaking earlier Friday. Pelosi has called for $2.2 trillion for the bill.
GLOBAL MARKETS
International stocks rose on Friday, with all three major Wall Street indexes posting weekly gains as investors grew more hopeful the U.S. government would provide additional economic stimulus. Gold jumped and the dollar dropped as investors focused on the probability of forthcoming U.S. coronavirus relief.
Wrangling in Washington over pandemic aid has dominated global markets this week, and although U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin failed to hammer out a deal, talks will continue despite Republican doubts. Trump said in an interview on Friday that he wants to see a bigger stimulus package than either Democrats or Republicans were offering, a reversal from his threats at the beginning of the week that he would halt negotiations.
Trump expressed a desire to return to the campaign trail a week after announcing he had contracted COVID-19, but aides said he was unlikely to hold in-person events until Monday at the earliest. Reuters/Ipsos polls show Trump’s approval rating plummeting, with Americans steadily losing confidence in his handling of the pandemic, while Democratic challenger Joe Biden makes gains in several key swing states.
Next week, investors’ attention will shift to reporting season, and analysts now see third-quarter S&P 500 earnings, in aggregate, falling by 21% year-on-year, according to Refinitiv.
European stocks posted a second straight week of gains on upbeat earnings forecasts, while investors paid close attention to fiscal aid talks in the United States. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.55% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.84%.
Yields on Treasury bonds ticked higher in afternoon trading amid improving risk appetite. Benchmark 10-year notes last fell 2/32 in price to yield 0.772%, from 0.767% late on Thursday. The 30-year bond last fell 4/32 in price to yield 1.571%, from 1.566% late on Thursday.
FOREX
The dollar fell to three-week lows on Friday on optimism that a deal for new U.S. stimulus would be reached, and as investors bet that Democrat Joe Biden is more likely to win the U.S. presidency and offer a larger economic package. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she would resume talks on a possible COVID-19 stimulus package with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Friday, while Senate Republicans voiced doubts that a deal can be reached before the Nov. 3 election. Republican President Donald Trump, who initially withdrew from the negotiations this week only to regain interest in forging a bipartisan accord, said he was open to a larger deal. The dollar index against a basket of major currencies fell 0.54% to 93.05, the lowest since September 21, and fell below its 50-day moving average for the first time since then. It has held within a range from 91.74 to 94.75 since late July. The euro rose 0.57% to $1.1825. The greenback weakened 0.39% against the Japanese yen to 105.60 yen. The U.S. currency also fell on rising expectations that Biden will win the Nov. 3 election, and that Democrats could win the Senate. A Democratic victory would likely result in larger stimulus, which would be negative for the dollar. Rising expectations of a Biden victory has also boosted appetite for currencies that have been hurt by the trade war between Washington and Beijing, with the Chinese currency the biggest beneficiary. The offshore yuan strengthened to 6.6778, the strongest since April 2019. The British pound rose, brushing off worse than expected UK growth data as investors became more optimistic about a Brexit deal being reached ahead of a key European Council summit next week. Sterling gained 0.79% to $1.3035.
GOLD
Gold climbed more than 1% on Friday as the dollar retreated to a near three-week low and increased bets for fresh U.S. stimulus pushed investors to bullion as a hedge against likely inflation. Spot gold rose 1.4% to $1,919.36 per ounce by 12:03 pm EDT (1603 GMT), en route to a second straight weekly gain, of about 1.2%. U.S. gold futures gained 1.6% to $1,925. After stalling talks with Democrats on a comprehensive aid package earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump called for a “skinny” relief bill that would include a bailout of the struggling airline sector. Additionally, a widening lead for Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has raised the prospect of further stimulus, adding to gold’s allure. The dollar meanwhile slid as expectations grew for a Biden win, making gold cheaper for those holding other currencies. Near-zero interest rates and unprecedented money printing by central banks to ease the economic blow from the coronavirus pandemic have driven a 26% rally for gold this year. Silver jumped 3.4% to $24.63 per ounce and is up more than 4% so far this week. Platinum rose 2.7% to
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Research Department 12 October 2020
$885.55 and palladium climbed 3.3% to $2,450.95.
OIL
Oil prices slipped more than 1% on Friday after an oil worker strike in Norway ended, which should boost crude output even as Hurricane Delta forced U.S. energy firms to cut production. Brent futures fell 49 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $42.85 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 59 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $40.60. Despite Friday’s price slide, both benchmarks gained about 9% this week, their first increase in three weeks and the biggest weekly rise for Brent since June. Oil futures climbed earlier in the week due to concerns the strike in Norway and the hurricane headed for the U.S. Gulf Coast would cut crude output. Norwegian oil firms struck a wage bargain with labour union officials on Friday, ending a 10-day strike that had threatened to cut the country’s oil and gas output by close to 25% next week. Also weighing on prices were doubts voiced by Republicans in the U.S. Senate that a coronavirus economic stimulus deal could be reached before the Nov. 3 election. Earlier in the day, oil prices briefly turned positive after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she would resume talks on a possible $1.8 trillion COVID-19 stimulus package with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Hurricane Delta, meanwhile, dealt the greatest blow to U.S. offshore Gulf of Mexico energy production in 15 years, halting most of the region’s oil and nearly two-thirds of natural gas output. Looking ahead, JP Morgan said that a worsening global oil demand outlook due to a potential rise in coronavirus cases this winter would likely prompt the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reverse a planned easing of oil cuts in 2021, with Saudi Arabia offering deeper cuts below its current quota.
Mon/05-Oct-20 05:00 AU CBA Australia PMI Composite Sep F 51.1 50.5 50.5 49.4
05:00 AU CBA Australia PMI Services Sep F 50.8 50 50 49
All CN Bank Holiday (National Day) 07:00 AU Melbourne Institute Inflation MoM Sep -- 0.1% 07:00 AU Melbourne Institute Inflation YoY Sep -- 1.3%
07:30 JP Jibun Bank Japan PMI Composite Sep F 46.6 45.5 45.5 45.2 07:30 JP Jibun Bank Japan PMI Services Sep F 46.9 45.6 45.6 45
07:30 KR Markit South Korea PMI Mfg Sep 49.8 -- 48.5 13:00 GB Official Reserves Changes Sep -- $533m 14:55 DE Markit Germany Services PMI Sep F 50.6 49.1 49.1 52.5
14:55 DE Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Sep F 54.7 53.7 53.7 54.4 15:00 EZ Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Sep F 50.4 50.1 50.1 51.9
15:00 EZ Markit Eurozone Services PMI Sep F 48 47.6 47.6 50.5 15:30 GB Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI Sep F 56.5 55.6 55.7 59.1 15:30 GB Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Sep F 56.1 55.1 55.1 58.8
15:30 EZ Sentix Investor Confidence Oct -8.3 -9.5 -8 16:00 EZ Retail Sales MoM Aug 4.4% 2.4% -1.3% -1.8% 16:00 EZ Retail Sales YoY Aug 3.7% 2.2% 0.4% -0.1%
20:45 US Markit US Composite PMI Sep F 54.3 54.4 54.4 54.6 20:45 US Markit US Services PMI Sep F 54.6 54.6 54.6 55
21:00 US ISM Services Index Sep 57.8 56.3 56.9
21:45 US Fed’s Evans Gives Luncheon Speech at NABE Meeting in Chicago
Tue/06-Oct-20 04:30 AU AiG Perf of Construction Index Sep 45.2 -- 37.9
06:00 KR CPI YoY Sep 1% 0.7% 0.7% 07:30 AU Exports MoM Aug -4% -- -4% -3.4%
07:30 AU Imports MoM Aug 2% -- 7% 6.2% 07:30 AU Trade Balance Aug A$2643m A$5154m A$4607m A$4652m 10:30 AU RBA 3-Yr Yield Target Oct-06 -- 0.25%
10:30 AU RBA Cash Rate Target Oct-06 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 13:00 DE Factory Orders MoM Aug 4.5% 2.6% 2.8% 3.3% 13:00 DE Factory Orders WDA YoY Aug -- -7.3%
14:30 DE Markit Germany Construction PMI Sep 45.5 -- 48
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Research Department 12 October 2020
15:30 GB Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Sep 56.8 54 54.6
19:30 US Trade Balance Aug $-67.1b $-66.1b $-63.6b $-63.4b 20:00 EZ ECB President Lagarde Speaks in Video Conference
22:45 US Fed’s Harker Discusses Machine Learning 23:50 US Fed Chair Powell Addresses NABE Conference in Chicago
Wed/07-Oct-20 04:00 KR Foreign Reserves Sep $420.55b -- $418.95b 04:30 AU AiG Perf of Services Index Sep 36.2 -- 42.5
05:00 US Fed’s Kaplan Takes Part in Talk with Bank of Mexico’s Diaz All CN Bank Holiday (National Day) 07:30 HK Markit Hong Kong PMI Sep 47.7 -- 44
12:00 JP Coincident Index Aug P 79.4 -- 78.3 12:00 JP Leading Index CI Aug P 88.8 -- 86.7
13:00 CN Foreign Reserves Sep $3143b $3169b $3165b 13:00 DE Industrial Production SA MoM Aug -0.2% 1.5% 1.2% 1.4% 13:00 DE Industrial Production WDA YoY Aug -- -10%
14:00 CH Foreign Currency Reserves Sep CHF873.5b -- CHF848.3b 15:30 GB House Price Index YoY Jul 3.2% 3.4% 15:30 GB Output Per Hour YoY 2Q p -- -0.6%
21:00 CA Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA Sep 54.3 -- 67.8 21:30 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Oct-02 470k -- 1785k
21:30 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Oct-02 501k 294k -1980k 21:30 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory Oct-02 -962k -995k -3184k 21:30 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories Oct-02 -1435k -471k 683k
Thu/08-Oct-20 00:00 US Fed's Rosengren, Bostic, Kashkari Host Even on Racism and Econ
01:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes Sep-16 -- -- 02:00 US Consumer Credit Aug $-7.22b $14b $12.25b
02:00 US Fed's Williams Speaks on Flexible Average Inflation Targeting
03:30 US Fed’s Evans Discusses the U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
06:00 KR BoP Current Account Balance Aug $6570m -- $7451.8m
06:00 KR BoP Goods Balance Aug -- $6974.5m 06:01 GB RICS House Price Balance Sep 61% 40% 44% 06:50 JP BoP Current Account Adjusted Aug ¥1650b -- ¥964.2b
06:50 JP BoP Current Account Balance Aug ¥2102.8b ¥1983.7b ¥1468.3b 06:50 JP Trade Balance BoP Basis Aug -- ¥137.3b 07:00 NZ ANZ Activity Outlook Oct P -- --
07:00 NZ ANZ Business Confidence Oct P -14.5 -- -28.5 N/A HK Foreign Reserves Sep -- $450.0b
12:00 JP Eco Watchers Survey Current SA Sep 49.3 -- 43.9 12:00 JP Eco Watchers Survey Outlook SA Sep 48.3 -- 42.4 12:30 AU Foreign Reserves Sep -- A$59.7b
12:45 CH Unemployment Rate Sep 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 12:45 CH Unemployment Rate SA Sep -- 3.4% 13:00 DE Current Account Balance Aug €16.5b -- €20.0b €21.0b
13:00 DE Exports SA MoM Aug 2.4% 1.4% 4.7% 13:00 DE Imports SA MoM Aug 5.8% 1.4% 1.1%
13:00 DE Trade Balance Aug €15.7b €18.2b €19.2b €18b 14:25 EZ BOE's Bailey, ECB's Schnabel in Panel Discussion 15:20 EZ ECB's De Cos Speaks at Conference
19:30 US Continuing Claims Sep-26 10976k 11400k 11767k 11979k 19:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Oct-03 840k 820k 837k 849k
Fri/09-Oct-20 06:30 JP Household Spending YoY Aug -6.9% -6.9% -7.6%
06:30 JP Labor Cash Earnings YoY Aug -- -1.3% 06:30 JP Real Cash Earnings YoY Aug -1.3% -- -1.6% -1.5% All KR Bank Holiday (Hangul Day)
07:30 AU Home Loans Value MoM Aug 13.6% -- 8.9% 10.7% 07:30 AU Owner-Occupier Loan Value MoM Aug 9.3% -- 10.7% 3.5% 07:30 AU RBA Financial Stability Review
08:45 CN Caixin China PMI Composite Sep 54.5 -- 55.1 08:45 CN Caixin China PMI Services Sep 54.8 54.5 54
13:00 GB Construction Output MoM Aug 3% 5% 17.6% 17.2% 13:00 GB Construction Output YoY Aug -13% -8.8% -12.7% -15.6% 13:00 GB Index of Services 3M/3M Aug 7.1% -- -8.1%
13:00 GB Index of Services MoM Aug -- 6.1% 13:00 GB Industrial Production MoM Aug 0.3% 2.5% 5.2% 13:00 GB Industrial Production YoY Aug -6.4% -4.6% -7.8% -7.4%
13:00 GB Manufacturing Production MoM Aug 0.7% 3% 6.3% 6.9% 13:00 GB Manufacturing Production YoY Aug -8.4% -5.9% -9.4% -10.1%
13:00 GB Monthly GDP (3M/3M) Aug 8.0% 8.2% -7.6% -6.8% 13:00 GB Monthly GDP (MoM) Aug 2.1% 4.6% 6.6% 6.4%
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Research Department 12 October 2020
13:00 GB Trade Balance GBP/Mn Aug -- £1074m
13:00 GB Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn Aug £-2310m £-2800m -£2363m 13:00 GB Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Aug £-9010m £-9000m -£8635m £-7870m
19:30 CA Full Time Employment Change Sep 334k -- 205.8k 19:30 CA Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees YoY Sep 5.4% -- 6% 19:30 CA Net Change in Employment Sep 378.2k 156.6k 245.8k
19:30 CA Part Time Employment Change Sep 44k -- 40k 19:30 CA Participation Rate Sep 65% 64.8% 64.6% 19:30 CA Unemployment Rate Sep 9% 9.7% 10.2%
21:00 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Aug F 0.4% 0.5% -0.2% 21:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Aug 1.4% 2% 4.6% 4.8%
12-Oct JP Machine Tool Orders YoY Sep P -- --
Sat/10-Oct-20 00:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Oct-09 269 -- 266 10-Oct - 18-Oct N/A CN Foreign Direct Investment YoY CNY Sep -- 18.7%
13:00 GB Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY Aug -0.6% -1% 13:00 GB Claimant Count Rate Sep -- 7.6% 13:00 DE CPI EU Harmonized MoM Sep F -0.4% -0.4%
13:00 DE CPI EU Harmonized YoY Sep F -0.4% -0.4% 13:00 DE CPI MoM Sep F -0.2% -0.2% 13:00 DE CPI YoY Sep F -0.2% -0.2%
13:00 GB Employment Change 3M/3M Aug -48k -12k 13:00 GB ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Aug 4.3% 4.1%
13:00 GB Jobless Claims Change Sep -- 73.7k 13:00 GB Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY Aug 0.6% 0.2% 16:00 DE ZEW Survey Current Situation Oct -63 -66.2
16:00 EZ ZEW Survey Expectations Oct -- 73.9 16:00 DE ZEW Survey Expectations Oct 74.8 77.4 17:00 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Sep 101.2 100.2
19:30 US CPI Core Index SA Sep 269.392 268.747 19:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Sep 0.2% 0.4%
19:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Sep 1.8% 1.7% 19:30 US CPI Index NSA Sep 260.225 259.918 19:30 US CPI MoM Sep 0.2% 0.4%
19:30 US CPI YoY Sep 1.4% 1.3% 19:30 US Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY Sep -- 3.3% 19:30 US Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY Sep -- 3.9%
Wed/14-Oct-20 06:30 AU Westpac Consumer Conf Index Oct -- 93.8 06:30 AU Westpac Consumer Conf SA MoM Oct -- 18% N/A KR BoK 7-Day Repo Rate Oct-14 0.5% 0.5%
11:30 JP Capacity Utilization MoM Aug -- 9.6% 11:30 JP Industrial Production MoM Aug F -- 1.7% 11:30 JP Industrial Production YoY Aug F -- -13.3%
16:00 EZ Industrial Production SA MoM Aug 0.2% 4.1% 16:00 EZ Industrial Production WDA YoY Aug -7.4% -7.7%
19:00 EZ ECB Chief Economist Lane Speaks 19:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Sep 0.2% 0.4% 19:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Sep 0.9% 0.6%
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Research Department 12 October 2020
19:30 US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM Sep 0.2% 0.3%
19:30 US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY Sep -- 0.3% 19:30 US PPI Final Demand MoM Sep 0.1% 0.3%
19:30 US PPI Final Demand YoY Sep 0.2% -0.2% 20:00 GB BOE's Haldane speaks 20:00 US Fed’s Clarida Discusses U.S. Economic Outlook
21:00 EZ ECB's Villeroy speaks at online conference 21:30 US Fed’s Quarles Takes Part in Panel on Financial Stability
Thu/15-Oct-20 02:00 US Fed’s Kaplan Discusses The Road Ahead for Central Banks 02:00 US Fed’s Quarles Discusses Financial Regulation
02:00 US Fed's Kaplan, Quarles Speak on Financial Supervision 04:45 AU RBA's Lowe Gives Speech Online
05:00 US Fed's Kaplan to Hold Virtual Town Hall 07:00 AU Consumer Inflation Expectation Oct -- 3.1%
07:30 AU Employment Change Sep -35.0k 111.0k 07:30 AU Full Time Employment Change Sep -- 36.2k 07:30 AU Part Time Employment Change Sep -- 74.8k
07:30 AU Participation Rate Sep 64.8% 64.8% 07:30 AU Unemployment Rate Sep 7.1% 6.8%
08:30 CN CPI YoY Sep 1.9% 2.4% 08:30 CN PPI YoY Sep -1.9% -2% 11:30 JP Tertiary Industry Index MoM Aug 1.6% -0.5%
19:30 US Continuing Claims Oct-03 -- 10976k 19:30 US Empire Manufacturing Oct 12 17 19:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Oct-10 -- 840k
19:30 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Oct 14.5 15 20:00 GB BOE's Cunliffe speaks.
20:00 US Fed's Bostic to Speak on Benefits Cliffs 20:45 CA Bank of Canada's Tim Lane Speaks on Panel 22:00 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Oct-09 -- 470k
22:00 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Oct-09 -- 501k 22:00 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory Oct-09 -- -962k 22:00 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories Oct-09 -- -1435k
22:00 US Fed’s Kaplan Speaks to U.S. India Chamber of Commerce 22:00 US Fed’s Quarles Discusses Response to Covid-19
Fri/16-Oct-20 04:00 US Fed's Kashkari Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook
04:30 NZ BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI Sep -- 50.7 06:00 KR Unemployment rate SA Sep 3.8% 3.2% 16:00 EZ CPI Core YoY Sep F 0.2% 0.2%
16:00 EZ CPI MoM Sep F 0.1% 0.1% 16:00 EZ CPI YoY Sep F -0.3% -0.3%
16:00 EZ Trade Balance NSA Aug -- 27.9b 16:00 EZ Trade Balance SA Aug -- 20.3b 19:30 CA Manufacturing Sales MoM Aug -- 7%
19:30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Sep 0.7% 0.6% 19:30 US Retail Sales Control Group Sep 0.2% -0.1% 19:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas Sep 0.4% 0.7%
19:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Sep 0.4% 0.7% 20:15 US Capacity Utilization Sep 72% 71.4%
20:15 US Industrial Production MoM Sep 0.6% 0.4% 20:15 US Manufacturing (SIC) Production Sep 0.8% 1% 21:00 US Business Inventories Aug 0.3% 0.1%
21:00 US U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Oct P -- 2.6% 21:00 US U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation Oct P -- 2.7% 21:00 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions Oct P -- 87.8
21:00 US U. of Mich. Expectations Oct P -- 75.6 21:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Oct P 80 80.4
Sat/17-Oct-20 00:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Oct-16 -- --
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Research Department 12 October 2020
@researchvaf @rekhmen
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EUR/USD
Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/ 0.00%-0.25% (US)
1.19188
RESISTANCE 1.18728
1.18483
SUPPORT
1.17778
1.17318
1.17073
SUGGESTION
BUY 1.1810
SELL ---
S/L 1.1760
T/P:
1.1880 1.1910
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS
Oct 09 1.17582 1.18269 1.17564 70,5 1.18237 66,0 1.17577
WEEKLY OCTOBER 2020
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
1.18269 (09/Oct) 1.17118 (05/Oct) 1.18269 (09/Oct) 1.16945 (02/Oct) 1.20100 (01/Sep) 1.06362 (20/Mar) All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform
USDJPY Interest Rate: 0.00%-0.25% (US)/-0.1% (JP)
106.354
RESISTANCE 106.192
105.893
SUPPORT
105.432
105.270
104.971
SUGGESTION
BUY ---
SELL 105.65
S/L 105.95
T/P:
105.15 104.95
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS
Oct 09 106.007 106.029 105.568 46,1 105.595 41,0 106.005
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