Source: Daily FX

Value Previous Change YTD Value Previous Change YTD

118.2057 118.2679 -0.05% 0.01% 1.1276 1.1323 -0.42% -1.68%

104.7923 104.4308 0.35% 1.36% 1.1322 1.1331 -0.08% 0.41%

104.3114 104.4124 -0.10% -0.63% 0.8769 0.8741 0.31% 0.78%

134.7842 135.0244 -0.18% 2.75% 1.2860 1.2942 -0.63% 0.62%Source: NBS 110.3800 109.7400 0.58% -2.45%

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Value Next decision Value

3.00% 7.3.2019 0.00%

Deposit facility 1.75% 2.50%

Lending facility 4.25% 0.75%

Repo operations (one week) 2.19% -0.75%

Source: NBS Source: Bloomberg

11.2.2019 8.2.2019 Change (bps) 11.2.2019 8.2.2019 Change(bps)

1.99% 1.96% 0.03 -0.366% -0.362% -0.004

2.69% 2.68% 0.01 -0.368% -0.368% 0.000

3.02% 3.03% -0.01 -0.308% -0.308% 0.000

3.17% 3.17% 0.00 -0.232% -0.233% 0.001

Source: Reuters Source: Bloomberg, EBF

Note: Values are with 1 day delay Note: Values are with 1 day delay

Value Previous Change (bps) Value Previous Change(bps)

2.498% 2.504% -0.006 -0.070% -0.079% 0.009

2.688% 2.698% -0.010 0.134% 0.117% 0.017

2.734% 2.742% -0.008 0.667% 0.650% 0.017

-0.779% -0.779% 0.001 2.573% 2.610% -0.037

-0.708% -0.710% 0.002 2.528% 2.559% -0.031

-0.652% -0.653% 0.002 2.655% 2.686% -0.031

Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg

Libor 3M (CHF) USD ISDA 5Y FIXING

Libor 6M (CHF) USD ISDA 10Y FIXING

Libor 3M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING

Libor 6M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 10Y FIXING

Libor 1M (CHF) USD ISDA 3Y FIXING

BELIBOR 6M EURIBOR6M

Libor interest rates Interest rate Swap

Libor 1M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING

BEONIA EONIA

BELIBOR1M EURIBOR1M

BELIBOR3M EURIBOR3M

United Kingdom (BOE) 21.3.2019

Switzerland (SNB) 21.3.2019

Serbia - Interbank interest rates Serbia Europe - Interbank interest rates - Europe

Next decision

Key policy rate Eurozone (ECB) 7.3.2019

US (FED) 20.3.2019

GBP/RSD GBP/USD

USD/JPY

National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Major interest rates

EUR/RSD EUR/USD

USD/RSD EUR/CHF

CHF/RSD EUR/GBP

FX rates and money market

FX rates on domestic market International markets

Currency Currency

Key events

TimeCountry/

RegionEvent Period Previous Forecast

Overall trading at the Belgrade Stock Exchange RSD13,96mln (€0,12mln). No bonds trading.

Euro slides against dollar. Trading at $1.128.

European stocks up. Stoxx 600 up 0.9%, DAX up 1%, FTSE 100 up 0.8%.

U.S. stocks mixed at the closing. S&P 500 up 0.1%, Dow Jones down 0.2%.

Oil steady (WTI $52.69, Brent $61.88).

Gold gains ($1,312.26).

Financial Market Analysis

Treausury and ALM department

DAILY REPORT

Flash

Dinar adds against euro 0.1% (118.2057).

Bank of the Group

February 12, 2019

1.11

1.12

1.13

1.14

1.15

1.16

1.17EUR/USD

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

117

118

119

120

121

122EUR mio EUR/RSD

Turnover on FX market (right axis)

Date Currency

12.2.2019 RSD

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Moody's S&P Fitch

Ba3 BB BB

Outlook Stable Positive Stable

Date 17.3.2017 14.12.2018 15.12.2017 Sources: Bloomberg, JPMorgan

Source: Bloomberg

Date Value Previous Date Value Previous

04.02.2016 2.75% 2.79% 21.05.2018 0.45% 0.47%

02.03.2017 2.64% 2.65% 13.06.2018 0.65% 0.96%

07.02.2017 3.48% 3.49% 23.01.2019 1.25% 1.20%

24.10.2017 4.05% 4.65% 29.01.2019 1.75% 1.78%

15.01.2019 3.73% 3.80% 11.06.2018 2.50%

05.02.2019 4.00% 3.74% 16.01.2019 3.25% 3.50%

30.01.2019 4.57% 4.57% 06.02.2019 3.60% 4.20%

07.08.2018 4.80% 4.85% Source: Public Debt Management Agency

23.06.2016NBS key rate +

0.25%

NBS key rate +

0.25%

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public debt Management Agency

Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa

Vrednost Prethodna UST spred

Serbia 7y 2020 3.712% 3.691% 1.187%

Serbia 10y 2021 3.793% 3.753% 3.793%Source: Bloomberg

Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

7 years

10 years

24 month amortizing

Serbian Eurobonds yields (USD)

15 years

2 years 5 years

3 years 7 years

5 years 10 years

Maturity

3 months 53 weeks

6 months 2 years

53 weeks 3 years

Maturity

RSD Government securities EUR Government securities

Instrument Value

7y T-bonds 35,000,000,000

Serbia Credit rating

Fixed income

Scheduled auctions

60

110

160

210

260

310

bps JP Morgan EMBI Srbija

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

4.7

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

Serbian 10y Eurobond 2021

Price Yield (right axis)

1.52.53.54.55.56.57.58.59.5

10.511.512.513.514.5

Yields on RSD government securities primary auctions

3m 6m 53w 2y 3y NBS key rate 5y 7y 10y

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0

Yields on EUR government securities primary auctions

53w 2y 3y 5y 7y 10y 15y

2

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

Sourc: Bloomberg

NIIS 682 7,762,524 0.15% 0.15% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

EPEN 13,591 2,242,515 13.26% 4.55% 5.22 14.48 42.27

AERO 1,077 1,501,338 -1.73% -2.09% 1.48 10.80 14.52

STUP 5,600 784,000 0.00% -1.75% 1.20 59.02 2.02

LSTA 559 548,938 0.00% 5.47% 0.54 #N/A N/A -18.27

VDAV 4,171 354,535 1.73% 1.73% 0.40 18.69 2.69

FITO 2,707 270,700 0.26% 0.26% 1.55 9.41 17.60

PMLI 400 211,200 0.00% 0.00% 1.27 897.12 0.14

VJDN 671 142,252 0.00% 0.00%#N/A Field Not Applicable#N/A Field Not Applicable#N/A N/A

FINT 520 104,000 0.00% 1.96% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

THHM 229 22,900 0.44% 23.78% 0.15 #N/A N/A -8.32

SJPT 170 18,190 1.19% -5.03% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

Sources: Belgrade Stock Exchange; Bloombeg

-0.38%

-0.04%

-0.31%

-2.45%

0.20%

Source: Bloomberg

crobex sbi20

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

sofix bet-c

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

dj balkan

Source: Bloomberg

DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 Balkan 416.24 415.42 -11.60%

SOFIX Bugarska 573.40 575.17 -15.36%

BET Rumunija 7,371.61 7,556.53 -4.93%

Crobex Hrvatska 1,750.20 1,756.88 -5.03%

SBITOP Slovenija 832.41 832.73 3.21%

Regional stock exchanges

Index Country/Region ValueValue from the previous

dayChange YTD

FINTEL ENERGIJA AD 13,785,463,120 Din.

TEHNOHEMIJA AD BEOGRAD 234,620,576 Din.

SOJAPROTEIN AD 2,344,832,610 Din.

GALENIKA FITOFARMACIJA AD 7,146,480,000 Din.

PIK BECEJ MLINSKA INDUSTRIJA 72,666,400 Din.

VOJVODINA AD NOVI SAD 56,675,344 Din.

STUP VRSAC AD VRSAC 182,896,000 Din.

LASTA AD BEOGRAD 1,043,900,637 Din.

VODA VRNJCI AD 478,776,577 Din.

NIS AD NOVI SAD 111,207,192,800 Din.

ENERGOPROJEKT ENTEL AD BEOGR 5,742,129,545 Din.

AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO 37,723,140,933 Din.

P/BV P/E ROE Market capitalization

The most traded stocks on Belgrade Stock Exchange from the previous day

Company Ticker Price RSDTurnovor

RSD

Daily

change

Weekly

change

Ratios P / B P / EBelex15 0,70 6,31

Turnover 13,961,497 RSD 3,878,211 RSD 260.00%Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

118,050 € 32,767 € 260.27%

Belex 15 709.37 710.40 -0.14% -6.73%

Belex line 1,537.94 1,531.81 0.40% -3.62%

Belgrade Stock Exchange

Value Previous value Change YTD

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

CROBEX

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

SOFIX

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

BET

300

400

500

600DJ Stoxx Balkan 50

650

670

690

710

730

750

770

790 Belex 15

-1.73%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 0.26%

AERO KMBN ENHL TGAS MTLC JESV ALFA NIIS FITO

Daily change of Belex 15 members

1,400

1,600

1,800Belex line

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

SBITOP

3

Source: Bloomberg

dow jones s&p

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

nasdaq dax

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

nikkei dj stoxx

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Snežana Topalović 201-1400 Snežana Spasojević 201-3621Vladimir Gavović 201-1263 Dragomir Milin 201-3622research@bancaintesa.rs Biljana Radosavljević 201-3610

broker@bancaintesa.rs

Darko Karanović 201-3624

Boban Todorović 201-3627Dragan Ignja 201-3626

201-3625trz_sales@bancaintesa.rs

ContactFinancial Market analysis Customer execution office (fixed income)

Dealing

Disclaimer

This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data.

Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in

Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be

reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.

Nikkei 225 Japan 20,333.17 20,333.17 0.00% -10.68%

Dow Jones Stoxx 600 EU 361.12 358.07 0.85% -7.21%

FTSE UK 7,129.11 7,071.18 0.82% -7.27%

DAX Germany 11,014.59 10,906.78 0.99% -14.73%

NASDAQ US 7,307.91 7,298.20 0.13% 5.86%

S&P 500 US 2,709.80 2,707.88 0.07% 1.35%

Dow Jones Industrial US 25,053.11 25,106.33 -0.21% 1.35%

Index Country/Region Value Previous value Change YTD

World stock exchanges

14,00015,00016,00017,00018,00019,00020,00021,00022,00023,00024,00025,00026,00027,00028,000

Dow Jones Industrial

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

S&P 500

4,0004,2004,4004,6004,8005,0005,2005,4005,6005,8006,0006,2006,4006,6006,8007,0007,2007,4007,6007,8008,0008,2008,400

NASDAQ Composite

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420DJ Stoxx 600

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

Nikkei 225

\

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000DAX

35

45

55

65

75

85

95Oil Brent (USD/bbl)

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400Gold

\

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40 Vix Index

4