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STARMAPYEAR 4

N. Scott UrquhartSTARMAP Director

Department of StatisticsColorado State University

Fort Collins, CO 80523-1877

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STARMAP FUNDING

Space-Time Aquatic Resources Modeling and

Analysis Program

The work reported here today and tomorrow was developed under the STAR Research Assistance Agreement CR-829095 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado State University. These presentations have not been formally reviewed by EPA.  The views expressed here are solely those of presenters and STARMAP, the Program they represent. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in these presentations.

This research is funded by

U.S.EPA – Science To AchieveResults (STAR) ProgramCooperativeAgreement

# CR - 829095

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TODAY’S

COMMENTS ABOUT STARMAP

Background Comments Research Outputs

Publications/presentations Training – future generations of environmental statisticians

Extension/Outreach/Cooperation Meetings Learning Materials Recruiting

Plans for the year ahead Research Meetings Data

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PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:

STARMAP RESEARCH - A FOCUS

EPA released the report, Response of Surface Water Chemistry to the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (EPA/620/R-02/004) Was submitted to Congress in January, 2003

Statistical techniques available for it wereseverely limited in several dimensions

Good illustration of tools we need to develop Used as presentation illustration STARMAP investigators are using

The context for model assumptions Data on which this report was based

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PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:

STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 1

Combining/analyzing environmental data Bayesian Methods

Extension of contingency table methods for aquatic data Devin Johnson and Jennifer Hoeting; papers submitted and in progress

Habitat selection models to account for seasonal persistence in radio telemetry data. Megan Dailey and Alix Gitelman: Paper to appear in EES; several talks; Dailey won

runner-up for best student presentation at WNAR Book on Computational Statistics by Givens and Hoeting; short courses

Spatial statistics Selection and estimation for spatial models (see talk by Hoeting)

Andrew Merton, PhD student: theoretical and applied aspects of model selection for spatial models (Hoeting and Davis, advisors)

Devin Johnson, reversible jump MCMC for spatial model selection (papers & talks) Kathi Georgitis, PhD student: estimation for spatial models, (working with Gitelman

and Hoeting) Megan Dailey (PhD student) and Julia Smith (MS student): models and methods for

EPA EMAP data from WA and OR. (Hoeting, advisor) Designing to estimate semivariograms – Kerry Ritter & Molly Leecaster How much spatial correlation in aquatic responses? – See poster by Josh French

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PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:

STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 2

Local Estimation/Survey Methods Jointly funded by STARMAP and DAMARS Methods to improve survey summaries using

auxiliary information From design-based to model-based Major collaboration with Jean Opsomer, Iowa State U

Giovanna Ranalli = post doc, completed, back in Italy, but here Progress on procedures for smoothing data from estuaries

» Cooperative with AED and New Hampshire DES Two cooperating fellows from Taiwan

Nan-Jung Hsu and Hsin-Cheng Huang Jay Breidt will expand on this during his talk

Mark Delorey and Bill Coar will give talks on their parts.

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PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:

STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 3

Indicator Development GIS work & support is funded here

GIS tools relevant to statistical analysis of aquatic systems have been tested, used, and are web-available: FLoWS

SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS in GRTS-type sampling Manuscript submitted; ESRI is interested in including this in

version 9.3 Substantial cooperation with the Oregon Plan and Western

Ecology Division Erin Peterson, completed her PhD and left for a post-doctoral

position in aquatic modeling in Queensland, Australia Andrew Merton will give a closely related talk Cooperation: Landscape Ecology & Stat & Maryland DNR

Dave Theobald (PI) commented further yesterday & here

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PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:

STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 4

Extension/Outreach Urquhart (PI) I’ll return to this as next to the last major topic

Only opportunity to talk about outreach here

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TRAINING - RESULTS

Governing RAF states “… cadre of graduates would be developed who would

have the expertise and experience in survey design and analysis needed to fill a gap in the expertise required to successfully monitor the condition of the Nation’s aquatic resources.”

Students & early career professionals Students

Completed: 3 PhD + 6 Masters Active: 6 PhD + 2 MS

Early-career professionals - 7

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OUTPUTS

Relevant statistical research in the form of Publications – for statisticians & others Worked examples in the “Case studies” part of the

learning materials

Reversed Randomized Quadrant-Recursive Raster (RRQRR) Slight variant of GRTS implemented in ARCGIS

FLoWS software – see poster Very usable and relevant set of tools

Prediction of probability of perennialness of stream traces

Hope to be able to add to sampling procedure by end of Program

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OUTPUTS in YEAR 4

PUBLICATIONS 20 professional publications – in print or accepted

Including a book

20 in various stages of submission and review 15+ manuscripts in various stages of development

Presentations 51 completed 2 more by end of year 4 (Sept 30, 2005) To a variety of audiences, domestic and international

27 venues Statistically oriented - 14 Other kinds of audiences - 13

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OUTPUTS in YEAR 4continued

STUDENT PROGRESS PhDs

One in geoscience completed; one completed in stat at ISU Six others

Three Stat in nearing completion (CSU) Two in mid-program (1@CSU), & (1@OSU) One Stat starting (CSU)

Masters One completed this year

@ CSU Two more in progress

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MEETINGS

Graybill Conference (2004) – success Proceedings will be published in two issues of

Environmental and Ecological Statistics Friendly outlet for young environmental statisticians

Professional meetings of statisticians: Western North America Region – Biometric Society &

Institute of Mathematical Statistics - Fairbanks Joint Statistical Meetings - Minneapolis STARMAP personnel organized sessions and gave

presentations at both of these and other meetings

Investigators are already planning for next year’s involvement

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MEETINGS - OUTREACH User communities

National Park Service – Theobald and others; multiple times ESRI (ArcGIS firm) Theobald EPA: Eastern Ecology Division – Ranalli EPA: Western Ecology Division – Stevens, Theobald and

Urquhart EPA – Ecology Review – Urquhart International – Stevens

Australia Pacific Basin Salmon

Oregon Project – Stevens & Theobald Maryland Stream Symposium – Urquhart

Making statisticians aware of unique features of aquatic systems Many contexts and all investigators – international to local

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RECRUITING

Post-doctoral fellows Actively recruiting one right now

Director will continue to be active in recruiting Students for the CSU statistics graduate program In high school advanced placement statistics

We need undergraduate majors in relevant areas to recruit for future graduate students

Urquhart visited AP classes in high schools last year

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LEARNING MATERIALS

Jointly funded by STARMAP & DAMARS Browser based (web access NOT needed)

To be delivered via CD ROM Substantial opportunities for individualization

Perspective Senior administrator to Implementer to Researcher

Landscape setting

We have moved to implementation as pdf files linked to video and sound

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CONTENT OF LEARNING MATERIALS

PROGRESS Why Monitor? - Draft completed and tested Where to Monitor? Draft completed and tested What to monitor = Indicators

Nothing started on this yet How to Monitor? (= Field Operations)

Major progress – Stacey Hancock gave a talk on this yesterday – She has combined:

EPA Field Operations Manuals Training videotaped in May 2004 And PowerPoint presentations from training

Another student (MS) is working on a different level of this

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CONTENT OF LEARNING MATERIALS

PROGRESS(continued)

… How to summarize.

Student has done some started on this

Case studies Several current efforts will be turned into these

Distribution of completed materials Preliminary discussions with the Council of State

Governments have been very encouraging.

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PLANS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD

Project 1 - continue present work Expand work on selection of spatial models Modeling aquatic data from EMAP-type OR & WA Explore wetlands data relative to plot size

Project 2 – continue developments Emphasize small area (local) estimation Expand work on uncertainty related to spatial LASSO

Project 3 - complete GRTS sampling in GIS Expand information and scope of FLoWS Major cooperation with DAMARS on Oregon Plan analyses

Outreach – continue development of cooperation Case studies – nsu’s time from meetings & editorial things Continue implementation & testing

At any suitable venue

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ACCUMULATING AQUATIC SPATIAL DATA

How much spatial correlation really is present in aquatic responses, after accounting for habitat features? Urquhart has been seeking data sets to look at this:

Streams in Virginia – too few points to see much pattern Ohio River – about 400 points – Josh French used for MS report Estuaries – one in northeast = Great Bay, NH - Ranalli Near coastal – San Diego Project – Ritter & Urquhart Wetlands – Cooperative with Minnesota DNR – nsu See Josh French’s poster related to this

Includes bibliography

New data: San Diego near-shore; Maryland Need time to finish work on these; includes map accuracy