GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION – STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION –
A TOOL FOR THE STAKEHOLDERS IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESSA TOOL FOR THE STAKEHOLDERS IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS
Dan BălteanuInstitute of GeographyRomanian Academy,
ROMANIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCE
Wolfram MauserLudwig-Maximilians University, Munich
February 18, 2013
Pillars of the Danube Strategy:
1.Connectivity2.Environmental protection3.Economic development4.Strengthening the governance within the Danube Region
Bridge over Danube, Apolodor din Damasc (103-105 AD),Source: Istoria Romanilor, vol II, 2001
Global Change Atlas of the Danube Basin- Past, present, future -
• Main purpose:– To reflect the current and future situation of the Danube
Basin within a global change perspective– To be a tool for decision makers from Danube countries to
respond to the challenges of a changing environment– To build a product responsive to the local, national and
regional stakeholders’ requirements and to assure visibility of the Strategy
– To clearly distinguish the threats and opportunities for the development of the Danubian community
– To identify critical areas in terms of environmental degradation, industrial decline, poverty and conflicts
Global environmental change - Climate change- Environmental risks- Land use / Land cover change- Human Dimension of global change (population, economic growth, urbanization, globalization) and human security
Regional impacts of global environmental change
- Extreme events and natural hazards- Agriculture and forestry- Water resources (water balance / river discharge / groundwater recharge / snow cover), hydropower energy and water consumption- Summer and winter tourism and cultural identity- Transport
Social and Economic Adaptation strategies
- System of indicators for adaptation (exposure and sensitivity indicators)- Regional adaptive capacity to global change- Simulation tools for integrating different (sub)models of various disciplines and their interactions- Three-dimensional approach: spatial factor, time factor and decision-making factor
Equity concerns, institutional arrangements and governance for sustainability
- Food security- (Environmental) conflicts between upstream users and downstream users- New technologies and innovation - Sustainable management of resources, infrastructure development, and development of communities- decentralized, self-organization, inclusive of non-state actors from industry and non-governmental organization to scientists, -cross-cutting research themes of global sustainability
Keywords of the Atlas
INTEGRATIVE METHODS, TECHNIQUES AND SCENARIOS FOR THE DANUBE REGION STRATEGY
• Regional assessment of present-day situation and of climate change impacts and potential adaptation strategies
• Methodological approach will be based on DANUBIA system developed for the Upper Danube Atlas– a flexible framework to couple the various submodels of different disciplines with the help of the latest software tools
• It will be based on social scenarios developed in GLOWA-Danube project – social megatrends from SinusSociovision, referring to the situation of the society as a whole and its change in the future.
• Also, there will be used methods applied in several FP6 and FP7 projects – e.g. delineating homogenous regions in terms of their endogenous adaptive potential based on cluster and factor analyses
INTEGRATIVE METHODS, TECHNIQUES AND SCENARIOS FOR THE DANUBE BASIN STRATEGY
• Inhalt• E Einleitende Beiträge• 1 Natur- und Sozialraum• 2 Simulationsmodelle der Teilmodelle• 3 Szenarien und Ergebnisse• Impressum• Glossar
Prof. W. Mauser – coordinatorUniversity of Munchen
Upper Danube Atlas
Aspects of integration in GLOWA-Danube
Upper Danube Atlas
Model of the scenario-based support system DANUBIA
SOCIOECONOMIC VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE SOCIOECONOMIC VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE - CLAVIER PROJECTCHANGE - CLAVIER PROJECT
CLAVIERCLAVIER APPROACH OF
VULNERABILITY:
Economic Vulnerability =
f (Exposure, Economic
Sensitivity, Adaptive
Capacity)
High Regional Adaptive
Capacity reduces
Regional Vulnerability
The analysis is based on
a series of exposure and exposure and
sensitivity indicatorssensitivity indicators
relevant in determining
the adaptive capacity of a
region to climate change
Source: The IPCC 3rd Assessment Report, cited by Stern, 2007
CLAVIER Economic Vulnerability Assessment complies with the IPCC approach on Vulnerability to Climate Change
ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY – ERAC ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY – ERAC METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY
-Data was analyzed using 2 statistical methods: Cluster Analysis and PCA
- 8 clusters at NUTS III level
- EUROSTAT INDICATORS & INDEXES: structural variables (e.g. sectoral employment, regional GDP, value added shares) spatial variables (accessibility, regional employment shares)
ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY – ERAC RESULTSCAPACITY – ERAC RESULTS
Scope (level of
investigation) Sectoral Level Case Study Level All regions Sector specific Case Study
Potential economic Impact
Economic Sensitivity (-) Exposure (-)
ERAC (+) Estimated Economic
Vulnerability
extent to which the
economy depends on a
certain sector
areas whose economies
are closely linked with
climate-sensitive resources
potential of responses
that go beyond
normal adaptations
= f (Economic Sensitivity,
Exposure; ERAC ) [estimated by
assuming average exposure for the
whole sample]
Pure Agricultural
Regions high (agriculture) limited high
Predominantely
Agricultural Regions
presumably high
(agriculture) limited presumably high
Rural Service
Regions
high (agriculture,
unstable population) below average average
Depopulating
Regions
low (already severe
structural problems) inferior presumably low
Industrial Regions average (industry) average average
Industrial Centres low high low
Tourist Centres high (tourism) slightly above
average high
Service Regions low
Depends on the level of
climate change and on the
system’s location whereas
according to the definition
single climate variables,
specific weather events or
long-term processes are to
be integrated into the
definition. Physical
Climate Changes and their
impact on the region have
to be analysed. Analysis
has to be undertaken on
regional level and serve as
the basis for the impact
assessment on case study
level
high low
enviroGRIDS
13 Nov 2012 – IIASA 13 Nov 2012 – IIASA
IMPACT2C Stakeholder Workshop
- Significance for Romanian Researches
Dan Bălteanu
PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS
- The Atlas is an interdisciplinary tool which will bring policy – relevant solution – oriented results in the main four pillars of EU Strategy for the Danube Region;
- The Atlas will be a dynamic digital document at NUTS 3 level based on EUROSTAT data, INSPIRE and several EU strategic and thematic directives;
- The “GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION” will provide (Spatial) Scientific Services (SSS) for a wide variety of socially and environmentally pressing issues raised by global change in the Danube Region’s countries and will support bottom-up initiatives.
- The Atlas will provide support to a broad range of stakeholders in order to ensure a balanced commitment, based on knowledge, of all the relevant priority areas of the EU Strategy.