Dan Borchert- EntomologistDan Borchert- EntomologistCPHST/PERALCPHST/PERAL

Raleigh, NCRaleigh, NC

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The Purpose of NAPPFASTThe Purpose of NAPPFAST

To assist the CAPS Program determine where To assist the CAPS Program determine where and when to survey for invasive pest speciesand when to survey for invasive pest species

To provide information on pests (potential To provide information on pests (potential distribution, etc.) for risk assessment purposesdistribution, etc.) for risk assessment purposes

To assist APHIS by providing relevant To assist APHIS by providing relevant information in Emergency Response situationsinformation in Emergency Response situations

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The Development of NAPPFASTThe Development of NAPPFAST

Idea originated at NCSU: Dr. Jack Bailey- method Idea originated at NCSU: Dr. Jack Bailey- method for forecasting peanut diseases in NC and the for forecasting peanut diseases in NC and the flexible template for disease modeling- 1990’sflexible template for disease modeling- 1990’s

Dan Fieselmann and Glenn Fowler worked with Dan Fieselmann and Glenn Fowler worked with Dr. Bailey for several years on project Dr. Bailey for several years on project development development

Roger Magarey developed the connection Roger Magarey developed the connection between ZedX Inc and NAPPFASTbetween ZedX Inc and NAPPFAST

Dan Borchert joins the NAPPFAST TeamDan Borchert joins the NAPPFAST Team

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NAPPFAST System OverviewNAPPFAST System Overview

Internet-based Pest Prediction SystemInternet-based Pest Prediction System Biological model (Degree day, Disease Infection, Biological model (Degree day, Disease Infection,

or Multi-function) templates paired with large or Multi-function) templates paired with large climate database climate database

Produce geo-referenced output mapsProduce geo-referenced output maps Designed to assist pest Designed to assist pest

survey detection efforts: survey detection efforts:

predict when and wherepredict when and where

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Development of Risk MapsDevelopment of Risk Maps

Risk maps developed for CAPS program Risk maps developed for CAPS program Utilize host and biology information to Utilize host and biology information to

create risk mapscreate risk maps Maps are available for use in development Maps are available for use in development

of survey plans of survey plans These are the recognized maps for use in These are the recognized maps for use in

the CAPS programthe CAPS program Can be found at Can be found at www.nappfast.orgwww.nappfast.org

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CAPS TOP 50 PEST RISK MAPS

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Primary Hosts Acreage Divided by Acres per County

Secondary Hosts Acreage Divided by Acres per County

*0.66 *0.34

+

Relative Proportion of Hosts per County

0= No Hosts per county

5= 0.05-0.075 of each acre in that county is composed of host crop

10= 0.75-1.0 of each acre in that county is composed of host crop

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NAPPFAST Map: NAPPFAST Map: Spodoptera lituraSpodoptera lituraFive Generations and Inverse of Cold DaysFive Generations and Inverse of Cold Days

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Risk Map Risk Map Spodoptera lituraSpodoptera lituraEqual Weighting of Host and NAPPFASTEqual Weighting of Host and NAPPFAST

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NAPPFASTNAPPFAST

NAPPFASTNAPPFAST Model CreationModel Creation

Folder system, but Folder system, but less information less information

More ComplexMore Complex

More applicable for More applicable for extensive usersextensive users

NAPPFAST-MAPVIEWNAPPFAST-MAPVIEW Map ViewerMap Viewer

Folder System with Folder System with detailsdetails

Easy to NavigateEasy to Navigate

More applicable for More applicable for casual userscasual users

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NAPPFAST Map ViewNAPPFAST Map View Easy, rapid site navigation Easy, rapid site navigation

designed for users interested designed for users interested in quick access to information in quick access to information

Contains series of “Canned Contains series of “Canned Probability Maps” for approx. Probability Maps” for approx. 30 pests30 pests

User can zoom in, add User can zoom in, add commodity overlays, county commodity overlays, county outlines, interstates and cities outlines, interstates and cities to map to map

Converts the custom map to Converts the custom map to PDF for easy printingPDF for easy printing

Map View site can be Map View site can be automatically accessed automatically accessed through the GPDD for through the GPDD for coincidental pestscoincidental pests

Username:aphismap

Password:maps2004

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NAPPFAST MAPVIEWNAPPFAST MAPVIEWImportant PointsImportant Points

What models are used to make the maps?What models are used to make the maps? What organisms can be modeled? What organisms can be modeled? What are the different types of maps?What are the different types of maps? Why use different types of maps?Why use different types of maps? How do I read and interpret the maps?How do I read and interpret the maps?

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NAPPFAST MAPVIEWNAPPFAST MAPVIEWImportant PointsImportant Points

What models are used to make the What models are used to make the predictive maps in NAPPFAST?predictive maps in NAPPFAST? Degree DayDegree Day

Infection Infection

GenericGeneric

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Degree Day Model: TheoryDegree Day Model: Theory

““Phenology and development of most Phenology and development of most organisms follow a temperature dependent organisms follow a temperature dependent time scale” (Allen 1976)time scale” (Allen 1976)

Attempts to integrate temperature and Attempts to integrate temperature and time started 250 + years ago time started 250 + years ago

Development is widely believed to follow a Development is widely believed to follow a sigmoid shapesigmoid shape

Dev.

Tem

p.

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Degree Day Model: Degree Day Model: TheoryTheory

Organisms have base developmental Organisms have base developmental temperature- temperature- minimum temperature below minimum temperature below which no development occurswhich no development occurs

Organisms have set number of units to Organisms have set number of units to complete development - physiological time: complete development - physiological time: measured in developmental units (DU) or measured in developmental units (DU) or degree days (DD) degree days (DD)

Parameters established from lab or field Parameters established from lab or field studiesstudies

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Degree Day ModelDegree Day Model

Example: Light Brown Apple Moth Example: Light Brown Apple Moth

base temperature base temperature 7.5 C7.5 C

requires ~requires ~640 DD640 DD to complete development to complete development

(egg, larvae, pupae, adult to egg)(egg, larvae, pupae, adult to egg)

Degree days are typically calculated from Degree days are typically calculated from average of high and low temperature for a 24 average of high and low temperature for a 24 hour period above the base temperaturehour period above the base temperature

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Degree Day ModelDegree Day Model

Light Brown Apple MothLight Brown Apple Moth: : Base temperature Base temperature 7.5 C7.5 C

640 DD640 DD for generation development for generation development

If average daily temp was If average daily temp was 11C: 3.5 DD (11-7.5)11C: 3.5 DD (11-7.5) are are accumulated and it would take accumulated and it would take 182182 days at that days at that temperature to complete developmenttemperature to complete development

If average daily temp was If average daily temp was 20C: 12.5 DD (20-7.5)20C: 12.5 DD (20-7.5) are are accumulated and it would take accumulated and it would take 51.251.2 days at that days at that temperature to complete developmenttemperature to complete development

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NAPPFAST MAPVIEWNAPPFAST MAPVIEWImportant PointsImportant Points

What models are used to make the maps What models are used to make the maps in NAPPFAST?in NAPPFAST? Degree DayDegree Day

Infection Infection

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Disease Infection ModelDisease Infection Model

Plant pathologist Plant pathologist describe describe interactions interactions between pathogen, between pathogen, host and host and environmental environmental conditions as the conditions as the disease triangle.disease triangle.

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Infection is often the rate limiting step in an epidemic because it requires moisture which is often limited in terrestrial environments

Infection can be modeled by a temperature /moisture response function - a mathematical function that describes the response of an organism to temperature and moisture

Disease infection modelDisease infection model

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Disease Infection ParametersDisease Infection Parameters

TTminmin = Min. temperature for infection, = Min. temperature for infection, ooC,C,

TTmaxmax = Max. temperature for infection, = Max. temperature for infection, ooC,C,

TTopt opt = Opt. temperature for infection, = Opt. temperature for infection, ooC,C,

WWmin min = Minimum wetness duration requirement, h = Minimum wetness duration requirement, h

Parameters established in laboratory studiesParameters established in laboratory studies

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Temperature response functionTemperature response function

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Tem

pera

ture

Res

pons

e

Temperature C

High ToptLow Topt

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Temperature moisture response Temperature moisture response functionfunction

Low Topt

High Wmin

High Topt

Low Wmin

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NAPPFAST MAPVIEWNAPPFAST MAPVIEWImportant PointsImportant Points

What models are used to make the maps What models are used to make the maps in NAPPFAST?in NAPPFAST? Degree DayDegree Day

Infection Infection

Generic- Multi-function ModelGeneric- Multi-function Model

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Multi-function ModelMulti-function Model

Allows for construction of many different Allows for construction of many different models using simple logical and models using simple logical and mathematical equations: mathematical equations:

(X>A, X and Y, X or Y, X and (Y or Z), (X>A, X and Y, X or Y, X and (Y or Z), X≥A and X≤B, A* exp(B * X), etc.)X≥A and X≤B, A* exp(B * X), etc.)

Some examples used to date are: Some examples used to date are: temperature exclusions (high and or low temperature exclusions (high and or low lethal temperatures), frost free days, and lethal temperatures), frost free days, and emergence dates emergence dates

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NAPPFAST MAPVIEWNAPPFAST MAPVIEWImportant PointsImportant Points

What models are used to make the What models are used to make the predictive maps?predictive maps?

What organisms can be modeled? What organisms can be modeled? Which model is used?Which model is used?

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Modeling- Point to ConsiderModeling- Point to Consider

“ “ A model is always wrong, but A model is always wrong, but it can help you see the truthit can help you see the truth””

Dr. Fred Gould Dr. Fred Gould

William Neal Reynolds ProfessorWilliam Neal Reynolds Professor

North Carolina State University Entomology DepartmentNorth Carolina State University Entomology Department

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NAPPFAST MAPVIEWNAPPFAST MAPVIEWImportant PointsImportant Points

What models are used to make the What models are used to make the predictive maps?predictive maps?

What organisms can be modeled? What organisms can be modeled? What are the different types of maps?What are the different types of maps?

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Map Types: HistoryMap Types: History

History Maps- A snap shot of informationHistory Maps- A snap shot of information

Provides detailed information on the pest for the period Provides detailed information on the pest for the period of time specified (day, month, or year)of time specified (day, month, or year)

Do not provide information about other years Do not provide information about other years occurrenceoccurrence

Are often used for validation of models or examining a Are often used for validation of models or examining a specific years outputspecific years output

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June 7 2004June 7 2004

3rd

2nd

1st

Egg

Adult

Pupae

3rd

Insect Stage

JB Watch Observation

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June 14 2004June 14 2004

3rd

2nd

1st

Egg

Adult

Pupae

3rd

Insect Stage

JB Watch Observation

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Map Types: ProbabilityMap Types: Probability

Probability- Utilizes data from multiple Probability- Utilizes data from multiple yearsyears

Information is less detailed, but provides Information is less detailed, but provides insight into frequency of occurrence insight into frequency of occurrence through many years for a specific eventthrough many years for a specific event

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Probability MapsProbability Maps Allow for spatial examination of a particular stage Allow for spatial examination of a particular stage

through multiple years for a specified time periodthrough multiple years for a specified time period i.e. Where is the adult stage most likely to be occurring i.e. Where is the adult stage most likely to be occurring

during the second week (8-14) in June?during the second week (8-14) in June?

  10108 8 

  886 6 

664 4 

  4422

22

  

  

  

  

  0 0 

Frequency of Occurrence

JB Watch Observation

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Probability Map for the Probability Map for the Third Week of JuneThird Week of June

  10108 8 

  886 6 

664 4 

  4422

22

  

  

  

  

  0 0 

Frequency of Occurrence

JB Watch Observation

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Probability of One GenerationProbability of One Generation> 940 DD> 940 DD

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Probability of Two GenerationsProbability of Two Generations> 1580 DD> 1580 DD

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Probability of Three GenerationsProbability of Three Generations> 2220 DD> 2220 DD

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NAPPFAST MAPVIEWNAPPFAST MAPVIEWImportant PointsImportant Points

What models are used to make the maps?What models are used to make the maps? What organisms can be modeled? What organisms can be modeled? What are the different types of maps?What are the different types of maps? Why use different types of maps?Why use different types of maps?

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Why Different Types?Why Different Types?

Able to answer different questions?Able to answer different questions? What question are you trying to answer?What question are you trying to answer? EstablishmentEstablishment RiskRisk Time for surveyTime for survey

StartStart OptimumOptimum StopStop

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NAPPFAST MAPVIEWNAPPFAST MAPVIEWImportant PointsImportant Points

What models are used to make the maps?What models are used to make the maps? What organisms can be modeled? What organisms can be modeled? What are the different types of maps?What are the different types of maps? Why use different types of maps?Why use different types of maps? How do I read and interpret the maps?How do I read and interpret the maps?

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PracticePractice Q) Degree day models are based on the relationship between a Q) Degree day models are based on the relationship between a

most organism’s development and ____________? most organism’s development and ____________? Q) Infection models are used to model __________? Q) Infection models are used to model __________? Q) In NAPPFAST, probability maps and history maps are the two Q) In NAPPFAST, probability maps and history maps are the two

types of maps generated, describe briefly how the maps are types of maps generated, describe briefly how the maps are different in the type of data used and displayed.different in the type of data used and displayed.

Q) Two different maps generated using degree day models are Q) Two different maps generated using degree day models are generation emergence and generation potential. What is the generation emergence and generation potential. What is the difference between the two and how can each be utilized in survey difference between the two and how can each be utilized in survey and detection efforts? and detection efforts?

Q) The disease triangle is composed of susceptible host, pathogen Q) The disease triangle is composed of susceptible host, pathogen and favorable conditions. NAPPFAST models what component of and favorable conditions. NAPPFAST models what component of the disease triangle?the disease triangle?

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PracticePractice Q) Disease infection models have maps generated for historical Q) Disease infection models have maps generated for historical

data, monthly probability and yearly probability. What are the main data, monthly probability and yearly probability. What are the main differences and how can they be utilized in survey detection efforts?differences and how can they be utilized in survey detection efforts?

Q. For your state or region (or one of your choosing), using an Q. For your state or region (or one of your choosing), using an insect and a disease give specific examples of when you would insect and a disease give specific examples of when you would survey for them and why. For example: apple scab in NC the survey for them and why. For example: apple scab in NC the month of June has high probability of 3 or more infection days and month of June has high probability of 3 or more infection days and high probability of 6 or more infection days and relatively high high probability of 6 or more infection days and relatively high probability of 9 or more infection days. There may be more than 1 probability of 9 or more infection days. There may be more than 1 month with high levels, use your judgment and reasoning to defend month with high levels, use your judgment and reasoning to defend your selection. You may want to consider crop stage susceptibility your selection. You may want to consider crop stage susceptibility as part of your answer. as part of your answer.

Q. In 2003, how many infection days were there for blackberry rust Q. In 2003, how many infection days were there for blackberry rust in coastal Oregon and Washington State? in coastal Oregon and Washington State?

Q. Where is the climate most suitable for one or more infection Q. Where is the climate most suitable for one or more infection days for Gladiolus rust in January:days for Gladiolus rust in January:

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SummarySummary

NAPPFAST is a tool that NAPPFAST is a tool that maymay assist you assist you do your job as a PSSdo your job as a PSS

Depending on your need and interests- Depending on your need and interests- information may be already available on information may be already available on MAPVIEWMAPVIEW

If your focus changes to need more If your focus changes to need more information NAPPFAST is flexibleinformation NAPPFAST is flexible

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Questions?Questions?

Dan BorchertDan Borchert

daniel.m.borchert@aphis.usda.govdaniel.m.borchert@aphis.usda.gov

USDA/APHIS/CPHST/PERALUSDA/APHIS/CPHST/PERAL

1730 Varsity Drive Suite 3001730 Varsity Drive Suite 300

Raleigh, NC 27606Raleigh, NC 27606

919-855-7545919-855-7545