Daniel E. Campbell

Research Ecologist

IV International Workshop Advances in Energy Studies: “Ecology-Energy Issues in Latin America”. Unicamp, June 15-19, 2004

Global Transition to Sustainable Development

Brief Outline of the Talk• What is Sustainable Development? • Where are we now? • The trade-off between the economy and the

environment.• Is sustainable development possible?• Human well being.• Environmental accounting using emergy.• Comparison of emergy accounts for

South America and North America countries.• Conclusions and recommendations.

Sustainable Development

• All nations could be better places for their inhabitants to live, if well being could be measured as ideal interaction (product) of environmental, social, and economic empower per capita in a system.

• Is this a reasonable goal for the world today?

Understanding What is Sustainable

• Energy Systems Theory (Odum 1994) is used as a context for understanding sustainable development.

• Characterization of the properties of the global system using this approach will help answer our question.

• The maximum empower principle provides the criterion for identifying system designs that will succeed.

Maximum Power Design

• System designs that fits and maximize available empower prevail in competition.

• Nature’s ubiquitous patterns are the result of such designs.

• Pulsating systems at all scales may be one such design.

Nature’s Pulsing Paradigm• The pulsing paradigm replaces the old concept

of growth followed by steady state.

• Systems with coupled pairs of components can oscillate.

• Such pulsing pairs are found on all hierarchical

levels of organization. • Pulsing pairs contain two components: the

accumulator, that slowly builds up resources and the frensor, that rapidly consumes the accumulated resources.

Energy10000ST = 1

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Pulsing on nested levels of hierarchical organization.

The Cycle of Change

• The pulsing paradigm for ecosystem development implies that a cycle of change is the fundamental characteristic of environmental systems rather than development through a series of stages to a climax condition that is sustainable.

The Repeating Cycle of Change

• Environmental resources by the ecosystems (today and in the past) are the accumulated products.

• Global economic, informational, and cultural assets are the resource consumers.

• The cycle of change moves through phases of (1) exploitation, (2) climax or conservation, (3) creative destruction, and (4) renewal (Holing's Figure 8).

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The Cycle of Change

The Evolving Cycle of Change

• The shared information of humans in social systems provides a mechanism for evolution of the cycle.

• Hypothesis: System empower will gradually increase in each successive phase of renewal, in the limit, approaching the maximum empower possible for the resource base.

EnergyE= 5

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Material, MTM = 200

Resources R = 2

Consumers C =2

Information I = 0.2

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Role of Information in altering the renewal phase of Pulsing Systems

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Pulsing as an evolutionary mechanism for attaining higher empower states.

Morality in Each Phase of the Cycle

A) Exploitation of ResourcesB) ClimaxC) DecessionD) Low Energy Steady State

• Our children will have more material wealth than we do.

• We will meet our needs without compromising the needs of our children

• We will do more with less, so our children will have less material wealth but life will be better

• We plan for the 7th generation of our children.

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Where are we now in the cycle of change?

• M. King Hubbert (1956) predicted petroleum production in the U.S. peak would occur in 1970, which history has verified.

• Colin Campbell predicts peak oil production for the world around 2004. If he is right, the peak occurred 9 years ago.

H.T. Odum’s model of Hubbert’s Blip.

Model of Global Society on Fossil Fuel

Production Nonrenewable Resource , P

F

Q

P

Energetic limits determine the level of development.

Campbell’s forecast

Prior to its production peak, energy does not limit economic growth or production, except locally in time and space.

Environmental Systems

• Environmental systems are ecosystems in which humans are a dominant component.

• Economic production supports society and our standard of living and is not possible without the

use of environmental resources. • The central problem for sustainable development

is how to balance the environmental costs of economic production with the benefits of that production to society.

Environmental Limits to Economic Development

• Environmental resources are necessary inputs for economic production,

• Which produces wastes and alters land use thereby decreasing available environmental resources.

• Declining environmental resources eventually cause a decrease in economic production.

The Environmental System of a NationNatural resources are required for economic production, but production has negative effects on the environment.

RenewableEnergies

Fossil fuel,Minerals

NaturalEcosystems

Subsidized Ecosystems

Waste, Fertilizing

Fossil fuel,minerals, etc.

Markets

Goods &Services

Waste, Toxic

-X X

X

X X X -

X X X X

Groundwater,soil, clean air. etc.

Economy

GDP

Area

Area

Area

X

C, Land Conversion

C

C

(1)(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

Energy Limits Global Growth

• As long as the production of nonrenewable resource increases some resource can be used to mitigate the negative effects of economic production on the environment, while allowing economic growth to continue.

• Once production peaks, each year less resource is available and some formerly supported activities must be given-up.

RenewableEnergy

NaturalEcosystems

Subsidized Ecosystems

Waste, Fertilizing Fossil fuel,

minerals, etc.

Waste, Toxic

-X X

X

X X X -

X X X X

Groundwater,soil, clean air. etc.

Economy

GWP $

Area

Area

Area

X

C

C

C

Global Environmental System before Nonrenewable Resources Peak.

Recycle &Waste

Treatment

BetterDesign

(1)

(2)

(3)

Is Global Sustainable Development Possible?

• If it is, there must be an optimum nonrenewable emergy use for maximum human well being.

• At least theoretically:Underdeveloped countries would improve by using more nonrenewable emergy; and developed countries would increase well being by using less, but improving design.

• What happens in practice?

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Global Energy Used (Joules x 1018)

GW

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12An optimum is not apparent looking at global economic activity as a function of energy use.

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Nor does an optimum appear in the relationship between national GDP and national emergy use.

Human well being is the product of environment, economy, and societyOdum (1996).

Human Well Being• We hypothesize that:

human well being is determined by the interaction of emergy flows of the environment, economy, and society within a system.

• The product of these three will have a humpbacked (optimum) relation as a function of fossil fuel use when detrimental drains are included.

Mechanism that will allow global sustainable development

Hypothetical Data

Underdeveloped

Overdeveloped

Questions Related to Transition

• What is sustainable for the world as a whole?

• And for each country given its particular resource base and position in the cycle of change?

• Is it possible for all nations together to move toward higher states of human well being?

• Is global sustainable development a realizable system state?

Environmental Accounting

• The answers to these questions will depend on the development of an adequate theory of human well being and on the development of accounting methods to determine whether we are moving toward this goal.

• Environmental accounting using emergy (Odum 1996) provides methods and measures to help answer these questions.

Tools of Environmental Accounting

• The Emergy Income Statement

• The Emergy Balance Sheet

• Emergy Measures of Trade Equity

• Emergy Measures of Social Equity

• Emergy Indices, e.g., environmental loading and sustainability.

Global Transition to Sustainable Development

To illustrate the application of environmental accounting methods to the problem of sustainable development, we will consider the concept of society’s debt to the environment debt and how it can be measured using emergy methods.

Environmental Debt• Money is paid only to people

for their work.

• The environment contributes work to economic production without payment.

• Anything taken without payment is obtained on credit and becomes a liability on the balance sheet.

Measuring the Debt

• Environmental debt is mostly external to the market system, thus it is not easily measured by money.

• Value can be measured by what was required to produce an item as well as by what someone is willing to pay for it.

• Environmental work can be measured by the former method.

Available energy is a common denominator

• All action is accompanied by the transformation of available energyor exergy.

• The exergy used in the past to create an item is a measure of whatwas required to produce it.

• But exergies of different kinds have different ability to do work when used in a network.

Emergy

If all the different kinds of exergy previously used up, directly and indirectly, to make an item are expressed as solar joules, and then summed the resulting value is the solar emergy of the item.

= +X X =

Emergy of Bread

Joules Joules

Bread

Joules

Rain Oil

Solar emjoules

What is Emergy?

• It is the Energy Memory of everything that has been used to make a product or service.

• It is a scientific expression of the folk idea of energy.

• More energy = a barn instead of a shed and when the barn is built the energy is used up.

Emergy to money ratio

• Monetary and emergy accounts are reconciled on the balance sheet using a combined emergy-money measure, e.g., the emdollar.

• The emdollar value of an item is its emergy divided by the emergy-to-money ratio for an economy in a given year.

Emergy to money ratio

Emergy Ledger

1.05E18

1.56E161.56E161.05E18

CreditDebit CreditDebitCreditDebit

Emergy EquityEmergy of Liabilities +

Extraction damage is an environmental liability

Emergy of Assets =

Coal purchased

Coal used

Environmental Accounting ToolsEmergy accounting makes it possible to keep a single set of books for the environment and the economy.

Monetary Ledger

1575015750

2000020000

CreditDebit CreditDebitCreditDebit

Owner’s Equity

Extraction damage (Em$)

Liabilities +

Accounts payable ($),

Extraction damage (Em$)

Assets =

Coal purchased increases assets

Environmental Accounting ToolsCreate a balance sheet that includes environmental liabilities from which the true solvency of our economic activities can be determined.

Emergy Balance Sheet

46181563410Total Liabilities + Equity

44775546010Total Equity

44695545278VariousVar.Natural Capital7

607321.22E12 (1997)

$6.0E10Paid in Capital6

Public and Private Equity

142617400Avg. 1.0E5J1.25E19Extraction Damage5

Liabilities

46181563410Total Assets

3153837VariousInd.1816000Knowledge of the People

3

4562655664039200J1.42E21Coal2

240293328200J1.04E19Forest biomass1

Assets

Emdollars

X E9 Em$

Emergy

X E20 sej

Emergy/Unit

sej/unit

UnitDataDescriptionNote

Emergy Balance Sheet

The emergy balance sheet gives direct information on what is sustainable.

Emergy Balance Sheets for North and South America

• Emergy debt to the environment: Forest systems (original area – present area) Species extinctions: vascular plants

• Emergy assets: Fossil fuel reserves

• Coal• Oil• Natural gas

South America: Country Data

Country Area Population GDP Year1000 ha

Argentina 278040 35660000 5.48E+10 1994Bolivia 109858 8040000 8.00E+09 1997Brazil 854740 167200000 6.00E+11 1995Chile 75663 14650000 5.48E+10 1994

Colombia 113891 37720000 8.78E+10 1995Ecuador 28356 12336572 1.97E+10 1998

French Guiana 9000 162547 3.82E+08 1997 est.Guyana 21497 700000 5.30E+08 1994

Paraguay 40675 5150000 5.65E+09 1995Peru 128522 26111110 6.08E+10 1998

Suriname 16327 427980 5.50E+08 1997 est.Uruguay 17622 3220000 1.47E+10 1995

Venezuela 91205 22803409 9.50E+10 1998

SA Assets in Fossil Fuel ReservesCountry Coal Natural Gas Petroleum Energy Emergy

short tons cu.ft. barrels Joules sejArgentina 4.74E+08 2.75E+13 2.90E+09 6.19E+19 4.95E+24Bolivia 0.00E+00 5.49E+13 4.41E+08 6.06E+19 4.91E+24Brazil 1.31E+10 8.10E+12 8.30E+09 4.78E+20 3.34E+25Chile 1.30E+09 3.50E+12 1.50E+08 4.62E+19 3.17E+24Colombia 7.30E+09 4.50E+12 1.84E+09 2.50E+20 1.71E+25Ecuador 2.60E+07 3.45E+11 4.60E+09 2.93E+19 2.63E+24French Guiana 0 0 0 0 0Guyana 0 0 0 0 0Paraguay 0 0 0 0 0Peru 1.17E+09 8.70E+12 2.85E+08 4.84E+19 3.41E+24Suriname 0 0 0 0 0Uruguay 0 0 0 0 0Venezuela 5.28E+08 1.48E+14 7.78E+10 6.48E+20 5.67E+25SA Total 2.39E+10 2.56E+14 9.63E+10 1.62E+21 1.26E+26

SA Fossil Fuel: Use Remaining Country Emergy Fossil Fuel Use Years Remaining

sej sej/y yArgentina 4.95E+24 2.58E+23 19Bolivia 4.91E+24 1.00E+21 4905Brazil 3.34E+25 8.83E+23 38Chile 3.17E+24 1.58E+23 20Colombia 1.71E+25 1.68E+23 102Ecuador 2.63E+24 5.40E+22 49French Guiana 0.00E+00 3.48E+21 0Guyana 0.00E+00 5.00E+21 0Paraguay 0.00E+00 1.00E+22 0Peru 3.41E+24 1.23E+23 28Suriname 0.00E+00 5.97E+21 0Uruguay 0.00E+00 1.10E+22 0Venezuela 5.67E+25 5.03E+23 113SA Total 1.26E+26 2.18E+24

SA Emergy Debt to Forest Ecosystems

* Brown (2003)

Country Forest Area Lost Emergy Debt Total Use* Years to Pay

m2 sej sej/y yArgentina 2,35839E+11 7,39549E+24 4,524E+23 16,3Bolivia 1,56729E+11 4,91474E+24 1,94E+22 253,3Brazil 2,75229E+12 8,63068E+25 1,792E+24 48,2Chile 2,273E+11 7,12771E+24 2,798E+23 25,5Colombia 4,31111E+11 1,35189E+25 5,72E+23 23,6Ecuador 53420963855 1,67518E+24 1,617E+23 10,4French Guinea 0 0 ? 0,0Guyana 4505687885 1,4129E+23 2,7E+22 5,2Paraguay 2,91493E+11 9,1407E+24 4,84E+22 188,9Peru 1,0091E+11 3,16435E+24 ? ?Suriname 6495523013 2,03688E+23 ? ?Uruguay 0 0 3,1E+22 0,0Venezuela 97117033493 3,04541E+24 ? ?SA Total 1,04E+11 3,25E+24

SA Biodiversity DebtCountry Extinct Vascular Plants Emergy Debt Annual Emergy Use

sej sej/yArgentina 1 1.50922E+21 4.524E+23Bolivia 0 0 1.94E+22Brazil 15 2.26382E+22 1.792E+24Chile 7 1.05645E+22 2.798E+23Colombia 4 6.03686E+21 5.72E+23Ecuador 3 4.52765E+21 1.617E+23French Guiana 1 1.50922E+21 ?Guyana 1 1.50922E+21 2.7E+22Paraguay 0 0 4.84E+22Peru 7 1.05645E+22 ?Suriname 0 0 ?Uruguay 0 0 3.1E+22Venezuela 0 0 ?SA Total 39 5.88594E+22

North America: Country Data

Country Area Population GDP Year1000 ha Current US$

Canada 997061 3,05E+07 5,99E+11 1999Mexico 195820 9,86E+07 2,29E+11 1998United States 962909 2,67E+08 8,50E+12 1999

NA Fossil Fuel Reserves

Country Coal Natural Gas Petroleum Energy Emergy short tons cu.ft. barrels Joules sej

Canada 7,20E+09 5,91E+13 4,50E+09 3,20E+20 2,30E+25Mexico 1,30E+09 1,50E+13 1,58E+10 1,54E+20 1,28E+25United States 2,75E+11 1,83E+14 2,27E+10 9,13E+21 6,19E+26NA Total 2,84E+11 2,57E+14 4,30E+10 9,61E+21 6,54E+26

NA Fossil Fuel: Use Remaining

Country Emergy Fossil Fuel Use Years Remainingsej sej/y y

Canada 2.30E+25 1.56E+24 15Mexico 1.28E+25 5.19E+23 25United States 6.19E+26 8.16E+24 76NA Total 6.54E+26 1.02E+25

NA Debt to Forest Ecosystems

Country Forest Area Lost Emergy Debt Total Use Years to Pay

m2 sej sej/y yCanada 2,36E+11 7,40E+24 2,34E+24 3,2Mexico 3,19E+11 9,99E+24 6,14E+23 16,3United States 1,49E+12 4,69E+25 9,00E+24 5,2NA Total 2,05E+12 6,42E+25 1,19E+25

NA Biodiversity Debt

CountryExtinct Vascular

PlantsEmergy

DebtAnnual Emergy

Use

Canada 1 1,51E+21 2,34E+24Mexico 12 1,81E+22 6,14E+23United States 163 2,46E+23 9,00E+24NA Total 223 3,37E+23 1,21E+25

Comparison NA/SA

Ratio NA to SA Value

Emergy in Fossil Reserves 5.18

Emergy of Fossil Fuel Use 4.69

Debt to Plant Biodiversity 4.51

Debt to Forest Ecosystems 0.47

Original Forest Area 0.56

Conclusions• In nature the only thing that appears to be truly

sustainable is a pulsing cycle of change. • Only by knowing our position in the cycle can we

take appropriate steps to move toward a position of greater total empower use (according to global situation).

• Documenting environmental liabilities and assets using emergy accounting shows what is sustainable for each phase in the cycle of change.

• A transition toward global sustainable development may be possible if we apply the following rules during each phase of the cycle.

Recommendations for Global Transition

• Protect the larger planetary system by stabilizing environmental liabilities that affect global functions.

• Individual countries adopt policies to move toward a position of greater total empower use.

• Determine the equity of trade with emergy accounting methods.

• Evaluate the efficacy of the distribution of wealth among people using emergy.