NAME

www.ciat.cgiar.orgSince 1967 / Science to cultivate change

14 May 2013

Andy Jarvis

Decision and Policy Analysis

• Cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary team who believe that better decisions can be made with the power of information

• Supporting functions within CIAT, and global research leadership in specific themes

• Reviewed in November 2012 and new strategic document developed as a result

Decision and Policy Analysis

Incoming staff(January – May 2013)

Decision and Policy Analysis

Gisella CruzSocial Scientist

Ana María LoboguerreroProgram Leader for

Latin AmericaCCAFS

Purabi BoseSocial Scientist

Overall Vision and Thematic Goals

• Recommendation n° 1: As soon as possible DAPA should redefine their goals, focusing on what it wants to change, where, with whom, and what products and services it will provide to that end

• Decision:

o Goal: To facilitate and improve decision making in the agricultural sector by ensuring that decision makers are well informed and engaged, through the provision of reliable information and easy to use analytical methods to assess the likely outcomes of policy, research, development and management options

o 2 page business and strategic plans for each thematic area, outlining objectives, products, end users, strategic partnerships and target outcomes

Structure follows Strategy

• Recommendation n° 6: DAPA faces a major challenge of maintaining proper management of its scientists and students, derived from its very rapid growth, and the very low proportion of senior scientists to young scientists and students

• Decision:

o Break with the pure horizontality of DAPA and build a new structure which facilitates integration but enhances accountability and quality control

o Strengthen “critical mass” of thematic groups

o …and makes my life easier by having a functional “MT” for DAPA

• Focussed on delivering research outcomes in:o Climate change (CRP7)o Ecosystem Services (CRP5)o Linking Farmers to Markets (CRP2)

• Through expert, disciplinary groups in:o Modellingo Gender analysiso Impact and Strategic Studieso Policy Analysiso Knowledge Managemento Big Data

Decision and Policy Analysis

Research Themes: Identify opportunities, deliver outcomes, facilitate cross-disciplinarityExpert groups: Ensure quality, disciplinary excellence, develop new methodologies

Theme CRP 1.2 CRP 2 CRP 3.5 CRP 3.7 CRP 5 CRP 6 CRP 7Climate Change Low HighEcosystem Services HighLinking Farmers to Markets Medium High Low Low

DAPA Version 2.0

LFM

ES

CC

Modelling

Policy

Gender

Impact and SS

KM

Big DATA

DAPA Lead Outcomes

Research Themes

Expert Groups

DAPA StaffStaff from other areas

DAPA Leader

Center lead outcomes

Coordinator

Research Themes: Identify opportunities, deliver outcomes, facilitate cross-disciplinarityExpert groups: Ensure quality, disciplinary excellence, develop new methodologies

Pros and Cons

• Creates a “MT” for DAPA leader, addressing Julio’s observation of leader needing more support

• Facilitates integration by taking a matrix approach between disciplinary expertise and thematic research areas, and explicitly enables other Research Areas to integrate closer into DAPA

• Leader for each theme and group enhances coordination, supervision and accountability

• Maps perfectly to CRPs

• Con: True integrators do not fit, e.g. Agreement CIAT-MADR

Other Recommendations• Recommendation n° 5: DAPA’s expansion of its work in Africa and Asia

should be guided by clear and explicit regional strategies

o Africa: LFM and CC, Asia: CC. Staff rotation, joint proposals, realistic expectations.

o 2 page strategy document developed on regions

• Recommendation n° 4: DAPA should hire staff that can support and lead its efforts to influence policies, and/or it can develop strategic alliances with qualified partners experienced in using research to influence policy

o Strategy document developed as initial blueprint for the policy “expert group”, but needs leadership. No. 1 priority for new hire.

• Recommendation n° 3: DAPA should take advantage of the opportunity represented by CRP 2, to strengthen its work under the “LFM” theme

o 2 page strategy document on LFM developed. 2 new hires strengthening quantitative approaches, 1 other new hire advertised

DAPA V2.0

• Goal and vision changed

• More clarity on thematic objectives, target products and outcomes

• New proposed structure which maintains trans-disciplinarity and strengthens team

• 3 year business plan / 6 year strategic directions document, seen as an organic document to ensure we are adaptive – yearly updates

• Aspirational and agile!

• Fundraising priorities to focus not on more money, but better money

• New thematic strategies to lead the way in terms of defining fundraising priorities

Getting to Grips with Climate Adaptation: The Right Choices

Evaluating Varietal Adaptation V

ar. C

ario

ca

Var

. Cal

ima

Var

. Jam

apa

Likely Yield with Different Planting Dates

Modelling Potential Losses from Extreme Events with Different Planting Dates

Benefits of Potential Adaptation Options: Conservation Agriculture

% y

ield

loss

% water deficit

Playing out transformative climate smart adaptation in CCAFS benchmark sites

in East Africa: When, where, how and with whom?

CCAFS sites Main crops Main livestock (forages)

Borana (ET) Maize (96.6%)

Beans (86.4%)

Wheat (33.1%)

Beef cattle (93.2%)

Goats (77.8%)

Nyando (KE) Maize (99.2%)

Sorghum (73.3%)

Beans (34.4%)

Goats (66.9%)

Chicken/hens (61.2%)

Usambara (TZ) Maize (87.1%)

Beans (75%)

Tomatoes (29%)

Chicken/hens (82.1%)

Dairy cows (56.4%)

Albertine Rift (UG)

Cassava (78.6%)

Beans (68.4%)

Sweet potatoes (59.8%)

Chicken/hens (82.5%) Pigs (63.1%)

Where do We Work?

Climate Smart Agriculture: Tackling Adoption Head on

Rash model (Campell, 1963): Attitude towards change = number + difficulty of change made

Linking continents for climate smart agriculture

Red: Localities having climates similar to that expected in Nyando in 2030 Black: Colombian departments where enterprises in maize and beans work within the framework of the CIAT–CCAFS–MADR project

dƌĂǀ ĞůŝŶŐƚŽƚŚĞ ĨƵƚƵƌĞ

E zE K

;<ĞŶLJĂͿ K >K D /

Ruth….tell us something about gender!

Gender Dimensions

• Why consider gender?o To develop appropriate adaptation strategies for both male

and female farmers (to ensure inclusion of female farmers)

• Findings (Context Specific)o Gender division of laboro Decision-makingo Control and Access of Resources

Gender Division of Labor

• Examples:o Spraying was reported as a men’s task, and o Weeding mainly as a women’s task

Women’s Reporting Men’s Reporting

MenWomenBoysGirls

Overall, men and women tend to report that they themselves do most of the tasks

Decision-Making• Across all 4 sites:

o Women report that men make most decisionso Men report more decisions are taken jointlyo Example: Nyando, Kenya

Women’s Reporting Men’s Reporting

MenWomenTogether

Relations with the Host Country:CIAT-Ministry of Agriculture Agreement on

Integrative analysis of production systems in Colombia for adaptation to climate

Objective of the AgreementJoin efforts, resources and capacity of the Ministry and CIAT to strengthen the agricultural and livestock sector to adapt to climate change, and improve the resource use-efficiency in prioritised production systems

• US$8m, 18 months, 11 national partners, 3 international partners

• “CCAFS Colombia”, 4 themes

• Improved crop models, seasonal climate and crop forecasting, carbon and water footprints, varietal evaluation across climate gradients

• Direct input into National Adaptation Plan for the Agricultural Sector, and the mitigation plan (NAMA) for the agricultural sector

Rewarding for Ecosystem Services in watersheds

Different Groups Want Different Things

• Downstream o Urban dwellers want clean, reliable water supplies o Lowland farmers want cheap, reliable irrigation water o Tourists want clean, attractive water

• Midstream o Hydropower companies want reliable low-silt water

without having to invest in large storage reservoirs

• Upstream o Highland communities want to live better o Citizens want to preserve highland ecosystem services

Upper basin(4000-5800

Ecosystem service provision (Water yield (mm))

1111-1507

Middle basin (350 – 4000

51-256

Lower basin (0-350)

0-50

Peruvian Case Study, Cañete River Watershed – Current Situation

Upper basin(4000-5800

River flow use (m3/s)

0 (mostly from springs)

Middle basin (350 – 4000

250, 64

Lower basin (0-350)

Upper basin(4000-5800

Water and land uses

Extensive degrading grazing, subsistence agriculture

Middle basin (350 – 4000

Hydropower companyShrimp growers

Lower basin (0-350)

Urban dwellersWater inefficient commercial agricultureTourists (rafting)

Desired SituationUpper basin(4000-5800

Middle basin (350 – 4000

Lower basin (0-350)

Transfer part of their benefits

Investment in productive alternatives

Watershed’s socioeconomic asymmetries might be balanced by this benefit-sharing mechanism

Research outputs and intermediate project outcomes

• Conceptual approach: Adopted by MINAM …Is not only about paying for improving the delivery of the ESS but also about rewarding for ESS already being delivered (positive externalities)

Recently presented by Vice-Ministry of Environment

(Nov, 2012)

Where We are Right Now: Putting Research into Use

• Participating in drafting national Ecosystem Services Law that draws on Cañete experience: Final version of ESS Law before Congress for approval

• Other case study catchments (6 others) contributing to a systematic review of potential for benefit sharing schemes in Andes

• Strategic internal alliance with soils for within- and cross- region learning on ecosystem services, placing CIAT as a ecosystem services lead for CRP5

Linking Farmers to Markets

• Under what conditions can market linkages be an effective tool for rural poverty reduction for gender and socially differentiated actors?

• Iterative process of design, testing and documentation of approaches for inclusive business models, R4D platforms and public policies in Latin America, E. Africa and S.E. Asia

Donors, business and civil society are in broad consensus on benefits of linking smallholders to markets

• Many islands of success but few cases of sustained, transformational change that benefit women, minorities and the rural poor

• The concept is clear but HOW to achieve beneficial and sustained market access is not

• Need to understand appropriate roles for public, private and civil society actors

Ambitious Destinations, Few Roads

Supply Chain Policies In Colombia

Policy density (# chains) by Department

CUADRO 4 10 ORGANIZACIONES DE LAS CADENAS PRODUCTIVAS:

ANALISIS DE FOCALIZACIÓN FOCALIZACIÓN GEOGRÁFICA

Aguacate Arroz Cacao Caucho Cítricos Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI

% Población con NBI

% Población Rural con NBI

Índice Desarrollo Humano

Índice Gini de Tierras 2009

Índice Gini de Propietarios 2009

Núm. Intervenciones USAID (Programas MIDAS y ADAM)

Núm. Intervenciones MADR (Oportunidades Rurales y Alianzas Productivas)

FOCALIZACIÓN GEOGRÁFICA

Fique Fruticola Guayaba Mango Platano Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI

% Población con NBI

% Población Rural con NBI

Índice Desarrollo Humano

Índice Gini de Tierras 2009

Índice Gini de Propietarios 2009

Núm. Intervenciones USAID (Programas MIDAS y ADAM)

Núm. Intervenciones MADR (Oportunidades Rurales y Alianzas Productivas)

Social performance by supply chain

Policy performance by Department

Quantitative macro analysis(policies & development

outcomes)

Qualitative meso analysis (why does the policy work /fail?)

Household level surveys(what does it mean for the poor?)

Research

Incidence

Thinking through impact

Strategy & Results Framework:Performance management….

• Over 5.3 million rural households in sub-Saharan Africa have adopted modern bean varieties over the last 17 years, generating benefits worth nearly US$200 million

• Adoption of improved cassava varieties in Thailand and Vietnam has nearly reached 90%, creating benefits worth almost $12 billion over the last 20 years

• Improved forages now cover an area estimated at 25.4 million hectares in tropical America, generating huge benefits through improved livestock production – estimated at $1 billion in Colombia, for example

• Nearly 60% of Latin America’s rice area is planted to improved rice, with benefits valued at $860 million from 1967 to 1995 alone

Examples of Impacts

Big Data: The Engine Behind it All

• Great climate data

• Improved soil information

• Crop distribution and yield data

• Land-use data

• Capacity to manage and analyze it:o Infrastructureo Geeks

• Major opportunities around the theme of SMART FARMING

CCAFS Climate: 40,000 users in 18 months

Agtrials http://agtrials.org/

Public data! 4600 trials

20000 varieties/races

• Calibration, validation of crop models

• Exploration and testing of adaptation options

o Genetic improvemento On-farm management

practices

• Assess technology transfer options

• Build “adaptation packages”

Joining the dots through data: Smart Farming

• Farms are experimental stations which generate data• New approaches can manage and analyse MASSIVE datasets

and make sense of them• ICTs can capture,

transmit and receive data

• Building on our experience in AESCE

• BIG data for SMART farming

In conclusion….

• Science informed laws on benefit sharing of water in the Andes

• Better national plans and policies for dealing with climate change (Nicaragua, Colombia….)

• Breeders breeding for the right traits

• Farmers and their organizations making the right choices in a dynamic climate

• Countries tackling deforestation head on with REDD+

• Some very motivated and dedicated geeky misfits….• ….with a deviously smart new strategy for impact

• And much more….

CIAT: Science to Cultivate Change

Follow us: Website: www.ciat.cgiar.org Blog: www.ciatnews.cgiar.org/en/DAPA: http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org

http://twitter.com/ciat_

http://www.facebook.com/ciat.ecoefficient

Annex – Target Outcomes of DAPA

Climate Change• CG centers and national/international agricultural development institutions developing breeding

strategies that build-on/incorporate DAPA’s data and modeling analysis.• Integrated adaptation strategies for agricultural and food systems inserted into policy and institutional

frameworks at regional, national or sub-national level in target countries. Namely, NAMAs and NAPs strategically developed in target countries using DAPA’s inputs.

• Evaluation of policy options used by governmental agencies for formulating and implementing climate smart policies that promote best-bet adaptation and mitigation pathways while enhancing food security and rural livelihoods.

• National and regional governmental agencies, NGOs and development actors using DAPA’s tools and methods including cost benefit analysis of options, feasibility studies etc for establishing and implementing their agendas.

• Multilateral banks and key donors using DAPA generated science based recommendations to guide their investments (climate proofed crop and breeding initiatives) and portfolio development.‐

• Governmental programs, NGOs and development agencies using the gender sensitive methodologies (tool kit) for identifying sex-differentiated vulnerabilities to climate change, and evaluating adaptation strategies in terms of gender equality and empowerment of poor male and female farmers.

• National, regional and international agro-climatic research community including universities and met-services using and/or co-developing data, tools, models and approaches for improving estimations of crop vulnerability, climate related impacts

Ecosystem Services• Decision makers will promote BSM taking into account the results derived from ESRG analyses

(socioeconomic impact of BSMs, quantification and valuation of ESs, situational analyses, etc.).• It is expected that technicians and advisors working for End Users will be able to use results

about the mapping and quantity of ES to target spending and actions that are part of proposed BSMs (e.g. PES-type schemes)

• ES beneficiaries (e.g. downstream actors benefiting from water-related ecosystem services) will be interested in participating in proposed BSM and this will be at least partly due to efforts to raise their awareness on the effects that appropriate land management have on the delivery of ecosystem services and the socioeconomic implications of this.

• Researchers working on mechanisms for sharing the benefits/costs associated with the provision of ecosystem services will incorporate our methodological approach and project results into their range of work and if feasible apply our tools in their own projects. Likewise, ES researchers will include our methodological framework for conducting in depth social analysis for assessing the direct and indirect contributions of ecosystem services to the wellbeing of the rural poor

• Environmental authorities have knowledge and understanding of the methodological approach and results in the case studies and if possible they consider research outputs for delineating intervention alternatives to improve not only the management and conservation of ES but also the wellbeing of the rural poor, including their food and nutritional security.

Linking Farmers to Markets• International agencies and BiNGOs• International agencies and big international NGOs (BiNGOs) adopt/adapt LFM methods and approaches for the design and implementation of market access

projects.• International agencies and big international NGOs (BiNGOs) engage with LFM in development learning processes that allow robust quantitative and qualitative

assessment of development outcomes from market access projects. This process contributes to organizational learning about which market-based approaches work well and under what conditions for the sustained economic inclusion of rural women and men.

• International agencies and big international NGOs (BiNGOs) leverage evidence and knowledge gained through development learning processes to advocate for deeper, systemic change with key public, private, donor and multi-lateral policy makers that favor the sustained economic inclusion of rural women and men.

• Key private sector companies and networks• Key private sector companies and networks adapt and disseminate LFM methods and approaches for the design and implementation of market access projects.• Key private sector companies and networks engage with LFM in learning processes that allow robust quantitative and qualitative assessment of social, economic

and environmental outcomes from small holder access / sourcing projects. This process contributes to organizational learning about which market-based approaches work well and under what conditions for the sustained economic inclusion of rural women and men.

• Key private sector networks leverage evidence and knowledge gained through learning processes to influence industry-wide best practice and business school curriculum in favor of approaches that favor the sustained economic inclusion of rural women and men.

• Key public sector actors, donors and multilateral agencies• Key public sector actors, donors and multilateral agencies engage with LFM in robust quantitative and qualitative assessments of market linkage policies and

programs and their outcomes for rural women and men. • Key public sector actors, donors and multilateral agencies leverage evidence and knowledge gained to design improved policies and programs that favor the

sustained economic inclusion of rural women and men at a national or regional scale.• Key multilateral agencies leverage evidence and knowledge gained to advocate for wider change with key public, private, donor and multi-lateral policy makers

that favor the sustained economic inclusion of rural women and men at a global scale.• The CGIAR • The CGIAR adopts/adapts LFM methods and approaches for the design and implementation of research initiatives on market access in commodity and system

CRPs.• The CGIAR adopts/adapts LFM methods and approaches for the design and implementation of research initiatives on Research in Development platforms in

commodity and system CRPs.• The CGIAR leverage evidence and knowledge gained from work on Research in Development platforms to design improved CRPs that are more effective at

contributing to development outcomes in market access and other topics.

Knowledge ManagementKnowledge management and capacity strengthening are two crucial ways of engaging decision makers with information produced by DAPA, CIAT and CRPs. Knowledge management objectives and activities will contribute to enhance CIAT and CRP scientist’s and partner’s knowledge and practices for engagement strategies in development- focused research. Scientists and their partners will manage new and diverse ways of collaboration with next and end users. They will collect, analyze and share information taking into account the needs and benefits of end users and the concern to reach them effectively. Decision makers (farmers, policy makers, those in charge of resource allocation and of research organizations, planning and management) will be engaged from the start in the knowledge creation process, and thus be empowered to act upon the knowledge generated. Scientists and partners will continually strengthen their capacities to handle information and knowledge for outcomes and impact with emphasis on policy influence.

Impact and Strategic Studies

• Improved research outcome & impact information use in decision making criteria at CIAT, partners and CRP levels, i.e. construct relative priorities for research resources allocation;

• At CIAT and CRP level, improved transparency & accountability;

• National policies may increasingly favor higher investments in agricultural research for development objectives.

• Recognition of CIAT scientific leadership and high quality research products which together with the other improved characteristics should lead to greater attractiveness and relative competitiveness for global, regional and national funding.

PolicySpecific Objectives• Offer support to DAPA’s research themes in the identification of research findings

that have the biggest potential to impact on policies, inform decision-making and strategic planning according to the demands identified (in the short, mid and long term).

• Identify the key venues where research outputs should be shared and/or create those venues if necessary, in alliance with key actors.

• Identify key actors and thought leaders to influence and inform in specific geographies. Build and formalize strong policy-related networks associated with DAPAs core mission.

• Discuss with decision and policy makers results of impact analysis of policy implementation (ex-ante and ex-post scenarios and cost-benefit analysis) related to DAPAs core research themes.

• Systematize and share science evidence to inform policy formulation for the key research themes of DAPA, so that the knowledge generated in DAPA can generate improved policies and decisions.

Gender

The Gender Cross-Cutting Group’s strategy and priorities impact policy and decision-making at scale in the following ways: The strategy influences NAPAs and National/Regional Development Plans; it increases policymakers’ awareness of gender issues related to national and local policies (with special attention paid to those related to climate change, agriculture, forests, water and food security); and it provides input on gender-sensitive strategies on the social policy level. • Empowered women—making production and marketing decisions• Equal access to resources (land, production inputs, organizations,

income, forest products, etc.) • Acknowledgement and valuation of women’s work (both productive

and reproductive)

Spatial and Agricultural Modelling • Scientific output: The group will publish studies which use models

to answer questions arising from DAPA’s research themes. These will be in ISI indexed journals, and combine innovative approaches to real-world problems.

• Models and tools: When a significant gap is identified in terms of modeling tools, then the group will develop (or adapt) new models or tools to fill that gap. An example of this is the mechanistic cassava crop model currently being developed, or the modified EcoCrop model which has been developed and used very successfully in climate change research.

• Data products as a result of modeling: The use and application of models will produce new datasets which will be made available in coordination with the Big Data group.

BIG Data

• To develop tomorrow’s data products today, putting CIAT in a competitive advantage with respect to data driven decision making

• To be a support-team that can assist other themes in DAPA with regard to data management (including data management policies), mining, analysis and sharing with end-users

• To support the research themes in implementing very user-friendly web tools to communicate with our end users and share DAPA results

• To harmonize and centralize the development of the tools and the management of the data.