D.A.R.E

Dating. Academic. Research. Enterprise. “Social Myth Busters” Presentation 1

Based on CU-STAT2507

Chapter 1: Describing Data With GraphsHistograms reveal that the relationship status of women and men in terms of lengths in months is heavily skewed to the right.

We see most people as single, while only about a half of all people are well-seasoned in relationships. Take Away: Men should not be afraid to approach women because there is such a high chance she is single (see the peak of the bars where relationship length=0).

Chapter 2: Describing Data WithNumerical Measures

If a man approaches a woman at random, and she is in a relationship, it is not unusual for her to have been in her relationship for up to 4 3/4 years, or for up to about 4 1/2 years or even 6 years depending on which of our studies you are looking at. In contrast for a man, a relationship lasting longer than 1 year and 7 months is already unusual...

Women Study 1: Relationship length outliers after ~ 4½ years

Women Study 2: Outliers after 6 years

Women Study 3: Outliers after 4 ¾ years

Men Study 1:Relationship outliers after 1 year and 7 mths

Men Study 1: (n=163)

Men Study 1: Classmates of Women Studies 1-3

Chapter 2: Describing Data with Numerical Measures

Take-Away: The female University students in our studies may not be dating their male classmates in our studies.

We suspect this since it is not likely that the women in our studies identify as matched to their boyfriends, while meanwhile their boyfriends identify as single. Although this would be a plausible hypothesis in studying short-term relationships, let us remember that the relationship lengths of women in our studies go up to 4 to 5 to 6 years long. These serious relationships are no longer ambiguous, to allow for one partner to claim a girlfriend/boyfriend in the other while their partner would not.

Take-Away: (What if the women are ‘counting ‘ their relationship lengths back farther than their boyfriends?).

Chapter 4: Probability and Probability Distributions

Take-Away: With such a high chance for women to be single, it will make it easier to counsel timid men to approach women.

The chances a woman you approach is single is 48%

The chances a man you approach is single is 71%

The chances anyone you approach is single in total is 60%

P(S|M)=0.7134, n=162P(S|F)=0.4848, n=361P(S)=0.5991, via the Law of Total ProbabilityS=Single, M=Male, F=Female

Chapter 5: Several Useful Discrete Distributions

Because there is a 48% chance of one woman being single… if a man approaches 5 women at a time, there is a 96% chance that at least one of them will be single, meeting other important assumptions.

Take-Away: The numbers do not support a rationale for approach anxiety on the fear that a woman is already involved with someone else.

Chapter 7: Sampling DistributionsHistograms of sample mean distributions for relationship length (RS) are approximately normal, despite that the raw distributions are skewed to the right (see slide 2). Sample-mean distribution histograms were made with random samples of size 35 with 5, then 35, then 135 samples.

Take-Away: We suspect that on average men are reporting shorter relationship length times than women, but a formal statistical test is warranted. A related idea is that a small proportion of men are in multiple relationships with women, each who consider the same men their boyfriends. My favorite idea is that the young female university students are “outsourcing” their relationships to older more established men outside of the institution, leaving their male classmates without partners.

For men the peak was only RS~5.81 months for an estimate of the relationship length population mean for men.

Regarding the peak values of the relationship length sample mean distributions for 135 samples, for women the peak was at RS~14.5 months – a great estimate of the population mean of relationship length for women.

Chapter 7: Sampling Distributions

Men Women

Chapter 8: Large Sample Estimation

We are 95% confident that the true proportion of men who are single, is anywhere from 14.23% to 31.50% more than the true proportion of women who are single.

Chapter 9: Large Sample Tests of Hypothesis

At alpha=0.10 we can reject the null hypothesis that men and women's true means in relationship length are the same. This is from a two-tailed test, where the p-value was actually 0.0281 before I doubled it.

We can be 90% confident that women in the appropriate population (e.g. in undergraduate Canadian university) are anywhere from 1.5174 months to 20.2626 months longer in relationships, on average, then men are.

The Study: Validation of the Secret Society of PUAs

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