Dark future for coalIndia is pushing for more coal-based power generation but recent reports raiseserious concerns over the viability of coal-fired plants

Indias coal-based power plants have doubled in capacity over the past two Planperiods between 2002 and 2012 and currently stands at 160 gigawatt or GW (60per cent of total). We rank third in the world behind China and the US in terms ofcoal-based power generation. Large reserves coupled with favorable economicshave spurred capacity addition in coal power over the past decade. In 2012, thePlanning Commission (now replaced by NITI Ayog) had forecast that capacityaddition will continue at this robust pace and almost double again by 2022.

In 2011, a study by Prayas Energy Group found that more than 200 GW ofcoal-based capacity had been approved by the Union environment ministry forthe 12th Five Year Plan period (till 2017) alone against a requirement of 70 GW.Another 500 GW was awaiting approval. The study noted that this combinedcapacity was three times the capacity additions required till 2032. This couldresult in locking up of significant financial resources and create stranded assets ingeneration and transmission.According to a report by CoalSwarm and Sierra ClubBoom and Bust: Trackingthe Global Coal Plant Pipeline a large number of these projects have either beenstalled or shelved. Construction began on just 9 GW of the proposed 500 GWbetween up to mid-2014. Between 2010 and 2012, the ratio of completed tocancelled projects was about 2:1. Between 2012 and 2014, this increased to ashocking 6:1, highlighting the severity of problems in the sector.

Trigger for protests

Worsening air quality, displacement due to land acquisition, forest destruction,impacts of fly ash disposal and conflicts over water use have triggered protestsfrom local communities against setting up of plants. The Centre for Science andEnvironments (CSE) Green Rating Project (GRP) notes that the environmentalimpacts of this expansion have been severe. In its recent publication, titled Heaton Power, GRP observed that plants in critically polluted areas in India (asdefined by Comprehensive Environmental Assessment of Industries or CEPI)contributed to more than a third of the total installed capacity.

Even existing new plants are suffering from poor capacity utilisation (PLF). In2013-14, PLF for thermal power plants dipped to 65 per cent, which is the lowestlevel in 14 years and has stagnated at the same level in 2014-15 as well. Thisfurther questions the need for new plants when existing plants are not beingutilised fully.

The focus for coal-based power sector should be efficient management,especially in the areas of PLF, efficiency improvement, pollution control, water

consumption and ash utilisation. Whether there really is a need for morecoal-based generation needs to be debated after taking into account the projectsalready in the pipeline and the aggressive expansion of renewables, mainly solar,said Umesh Bapat, former vice-president (operations) of Tata Power CompanyLimited.

Who will fund them?

Global financial institutions like World Bank have also committed to not financedirty coal projects. This means project developers have to seek out domesticsources of funding. However, domestic financial institutions are already facingmassive accumulation of non-performing assets (NPAs) on account of the powersector, and are unlikely to lend given the uncertainties involved. The impacts arealready being felt by BHEL, Indias largest power generation equipment maker.Its profits slumped by 70 per cent consecutively in the second and third quarterof 2014-15 due to lack of orders.

Uncertain coal supply is an added constraint for plants. Coal India Limited (CIL)is notoriously inefficient in coal production and has a monopoly over coal supplyin India. Its average productivity per-man-per-shift is three times below theglobal average. Plans are afoot to double CILs production and captive coal blocksare being auctioned to ease supply. However, these measures are not likely totake effect till at least 2019.

Time to rethink strategy

Price of renewable energy is set to reach parity with coal-based generation andeven surpass it. Combined with the governments revised targets for renewableenergy capacity of 100 GW by 2022, coal-based generation is likely to face strongheadwinds. Now would be the right time for the government to re-think coalscontribution to Indias energy mix and formulate a strategy to use existingcapacity effectively as well as prevent accumulation of non-performing assets inthe future.

Government establishes NITI Aayog (National Institution for Transforming India)to replace Planning Commission

NITI Aayog will seek to provide a critical directional and strategic input into thedevelopment process.

In accordance with a key announcement made by Prime Minister Narendra Modion Independence Day, the Union Government today established NITI Aayog(National Institution for Transforming India), as replacement for the PlanningCommission. This comes after extensive consultation across the spectrum ofstakeholders, including state governments, domain experts and relevantinstitutions.

NITI Aayog will seek to provide a critical directional and strategic input into thedevelopment process.

The centre-to-state one-way flow of policy, that was the hallmark of the PlanningCommission era, is now sought to be replaced by a genuine and continuingpartnership of states.

NITI Aayog will emerge as a "think-tank" that will provide Governments at thecentral and state levels with relevant strategic and technical advice across thespectrum of key elements of policy.

The NITI Aayog will also seek to put an end to slow and tardy implementation ofpolicy, by fostering better Inter-Ministry coordination and better Centre-Statecoordination. It will help evolve a shared vision of national developmentpriorities, and foster cooperative federalism, recognizing that strong states makea strong nation.

The NITI Aayog will develop mechanisms to formulate credible plans to thevillage level and aggregate these progressively at higher levels of government. Itwill ensure special attention to the sections of society that may be at risk of notbenefitting adequately from economic progress.

The NITI Aayog will create a knowledge, innovation and entrepreneurial supportsystem through a collaborative community of national and international experts,practitioners and partners. It will offer a platform for resolution of inter-sectoraland inter-departmental issues in order to accelerate the implementation of thedevelopment agenda.

In addition, the NITI Aayog will monitor and evaluate the implementation ofprogrammes, and focus on technology upgradation and capacity building.

Through the above, the NITI Aayog will aim to accomplish the followingobjectives and opportunities:

An administration paradigm in which the Government is an "enabler"rather than a "provider of first and last resort."

Progress from "food security" to focus on a mix of agricultural production,as well as actual returns that farmers get from their produce.

Ensure that India is an active player in the debates and deliberations onthe global commons.

Ensure that the economically vibrant middle-class remains engaged, andits potential is fully realized.

Leverage India's pool of entrepreneurial, scientific and intellectual humancapital.

Incorporate the significant geo-economic and geo-political strength of theNon-Resident Indian Community.

Use urbanization as an opportunity to create a wholesome and securehabitat through the use of modern technology.

Use technology to reduce opacity and potential for misadventures ingovernance.

The NITI Aayog aims to enable India to better face complex challenges, throughthe following:

Leveraging of India's demographic dividend, and realization of thepotential of youth, men and women, through education, skill development,elimination of gender bias, and employment

Elimination of poverty, and the chance for every Indian to live a life ofdignity and self-respect

Reddressal of inequalities based on gender bias, caste and economicdisparities Integrate villages institutionally into the development process

Policy support to more than 50 million small businesses, which are amajor source of employment creation

Safeguarding of our environmental and ecological assets

The Himalayan waters: complex challenges and regional solutions

Countries in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region should recognise the potential ofwater resources for sustainable development

It is difficult to think of a resource more essential to the wellbeing of people andtheir economies than water, yet managing water resources is a complex andchallenging task. The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region heavily depends onwater resources for irrigation, food, hydropower, sanitation, and industry, as wellas for the functioning of many important ecosystem services. Water thus directlycontributes to the national GDP and to livelihoods and income generation at thelocal level. Although water is the foundation of sustainable development, watermanagement in the HKH region remains fragmented and uncoordinated, anddoes not take relevant regional issues into account.

Many big rivers like the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra originate from thesnow and glacier-covered high mountains, and have abundant seasonal andannual water supply. Despite this, mountain people living on the ridges and hillslopes have limited access to water for drinking and agriculture. Throughout themountain region, springs are reported to be drying, and mountain agriculture hassuffered from drought. The shortage of water has placed an increasing burden onmountain communities, particularly on women. Furthermore, the communitiesface loss of property and lives due to water-induced natural hazards. Climatechange has exacerbated the situation by creating uncertainty about the futurewater availability and water security. Understanding the characteristics of wateris crucial for sustainable water management. This article attempts to highlight

some of the complexities and challenges of water management in the HKH regionand discusses a possible way out for sustainable management.

Mountain people living on the ridges and hill slopes of Hindu Kush region havelimited access to water for drinking and agriculture in the absence ofcoordinated water management

Water and energy

Energy is one of the most important pillars of sustainable development. In theHKH region, hydropower is one of the most promising environmentally friendlysources of energy. With a potential estimated to be 500,000 MW, the region hasabundant opportunities for hydropower development. Energy security can openup opportunities for development and employment and contribute to the nationalGDP. Moreover, innovative solutions such as electric transportation and a cleansource of domestic and industrial energy supply would significantly improve thedeteriorating environmental condition of the region. However, many countries inthe region have been able to tap only a small fraction of their available potential.Out of the 42,000 MW potential reported in Nepal, only about 2 per cent isharnessed so far, whereas Pakistan has harnessed 11 per cent of its total potential.Still, people in both these countries face many hours of scheduled power cuts.

Water and the environment

Water plays a vital role in maintaining different ecosystem services in riparianareas. Freshwater ecosystems in particular largely depend on the specific flowregime of rivers passing through them. However, due to intervention ofinfrastructure development, the flow regime changes in the downstream areas,where, in many cases, communities depend on water resources for livelihoodssuch as fishing. A major concern is how to make sure that a certain minimumflow is maintained so as to sustain freshwater supply and support dependentecosystems. There is very weak monitoring of the minimum flow requirement inthe region.

Water for food

Water and food share a strong nexus, both being essential ingredients for humansurvival and development. Agriculture is a major contributor to the GDP ofcountries in HKH. In Nepal, it contributes to 35 per cent of the national GDP. TheIndus river system is a source of irrigation for about 144,900 hectares of land,whereas the Ganges basin provides irrigation for 156,300 hectares of agriculturalland. Access to water resources for food production and their sustainablemanagement is a concern from the local to national level. Amid rapidenvironmental and socio-economic changes, the growing population will requiremore water and food, and equitable access to vital resources has become a majorquestion. Sustainable solutions to these problems require efficient use of waterresources for agricultural use in which technological innovation plays a vital role.

Water and disaster

Due to its physical setting, the HKH region is prone to various water-inducedhazards (landslides, floods, glacial lake outburst floods, and droughts). Every year,during the monsoon season, floods wreak havoc on the mountains and the plainsdownstream. These floods are often trans-boundary. Globally, 10 per cent of allfloods are trans-boundary, and they cause over 30 per cent of all flood casualtiesand account for close to 60 per cent of all those displaced by floods. The socialand economic setting of the region makes its people more vulnerable to naturalhazards. Lack of supportive policy and governance mechanisms at the local,national and regional levels, and the lack of carefully planned structural andnon-structural measures of mitigation lead to increased vulnerability.

Regional cooperation

The examples above show that water has both beneficial and adverse traits, itsmanagement is complex, and often a regional approach is necessary. Thehydropower potentials are primarily concentrated in the mountain regions butthe major users of the energy are the urban areas and industries in the plains.Strong technical and political barriers separate those regions, which is one of themajor reasons of slow progress in hydropower development. However, recenttrends have shown some positive change. In the recent 18th SAARC summit inKathmandu, the SAARC member countries signed a Framework Agreement onEnergy Cooperation. This agreement has opened up the energy market in SouthAsia, and thereby possibilities for cooperation in the energy sector. However, itremains to be seen to what extent the collaboration would play a role in energysecurity.

Tibetan part of koshi basin. The Koshi Flood Outlook being developed byICIMOD and its national partners in Nepal and India has high potential forsaving lives and properties in the basin .

There are strong indications the HKH region is going to be warmer in the comingyears. Precipitation is likely to increase in different places and have more

inter-annual and intra-annual variability. What does the change in temperatureand precipitation mean to water availability in the HKH region? Whatcomplexities do the cryosphere dynamics add to this equation? Should thesechanges be of concern to water resources development in the region? Thesequestions cannot be answered without concerted efforts of the regional countries.

The regional nature of the natural hazards requires a regional approach to thesolution. Effective flood management requires sharing data and informationbetween the upstream and downstream areas, not only within the country, butalso at the trans-boundary level. Technological innovations based on satelliteinformation, in combination with ground-based data, can be transformed intoinformation that can prove vital in saving lives and properties. For example, theKoshi Flood Outlook being developed by the International Centre for IntegratedMountain Development (ICIMOD) and its national partners in Nepal and Indiahas high potential for saving lives and properties in the basin. Such efforts shouldbe promoted widely in the region. During the Jure landslide event of August 2014in Nepal, during which the Sun Koshi River was blocked for several days, a greatconcern emerged from the Indian side regarding the status of the landslide andthe likelihood of an outburst flood. The flood outlook was helpful in providingimportant information. This example shows that disaster risk reduction could bean entry point for immediate regional cooperation. This will create trust, whichcan be a basis for future cooperation for maximising benefits such as energy trade.Countries of HKH region should recognise the potential of water resources forsustainable development. These resources can help reduce poverty, improvelivelihoods, conserve ecosystems and contribute to flood and droughtmanagement in the region. This will not only help us face the present crisis, butalso open up avenues to deal with issues of future water availability amid climateand socioeconomic changes. Regional cooperation should be based on the threepillars of sustainability: economic vitality, environmental integrity and socialequity, both at the national and local level.

When will India wake up to freedomfromair pollution?Londons worst air day is good air day by Indian standard

On March 17, London Mayor Boris Johnson issued the first high air pollutionwarning this year when pollution levels for PM 2.5 crossed 60 g/cum. This isconsidered safe by Indian standard

In January this year, London Mayor Boris Johnson launched an air qualitycampaignBreathe Better Together. It was started to raise awareness about air qualitythrough posters and advertisements on radio while promoting walking and cycling.

On March 17, Johnson issued the first high air pollution warning, requestingall vulnerable children and adult groups with lung and heart problems toavoid outdoor activities. Some of the worst levels of pollution weremeasured in the Midlands, north-west England and northern Ireland. ThePM2.5 (particulate matter the size of 2.5 microns or less) levels werereported to be as high as 66 microgram/cubic metre (g/cum), almost threetimes the prescribed EU standard of 25 g/cum. He also gave some tips toreduce pollution, which included car-pooling and switching off engineswhile not in use.UKs Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) saidchange in direction of winds carrying dirty air from urbanised and motorisedregions in Europe to Londons home-grown smog and still weather led to thehigh pollution levels. The swathe of air entering the UK is mostly fromnorthern France, said media reports.Scotland also received an air qualitywarning from the international network of environmental organisations,Friends of the Earth (FOE), regarding particulate matter reaching an all timehigh since August 2012, with Aberdeen being the worst affected. Accordingto FOE, the local vehicular pollution (of the UK) was a big contributor tosuch high smog levels. Government officials accepted the need to do moredespite having made substantial progress in curbing air pollution. The Metdepartment is also closely working with Public Health England, theexecutive agency of the Department of Health in the United Kingdom, toprovide accurate information on air pollution and relevant advice to public.What is interesting to note is that what is alarming pollution level forLondon, which prompted the Mayor to caution the city residents, is treatedas the safe limit for PM2.5 limit in India60 g/cum. This not onlyhighlights the weaker standards in India as compared to European Union(which follows WHO norm) but also calls for strict action from the Indiangovernment in cases of violation of air pollution standards.Environmentalists in Scotland have demanded free bus service and publictransport to remove private vehicles from the roads, following the exampleset by Paris.In March, 2014, Paris gained a lot of attention when certain regionsexperienced particulate matter pollution as high as 180 g/cum while themaximum permissible limit is 80g/cum. This compelled the authorities inParis to cut down private vehicles on the road. It also made public transport

free over the weekend to get its public to use buses and trains and sharebikes. The city also adopted alternate vehicles systemallowing cars witheither odd or even number plates to ply on alternate days. The spokespersonof prime ministers office of France had gone ahead to say that officials wereaware of the inconveniences this could cause the public but it was an urgentrequirement. Paris also does not allow diesel cars on smoggy days.Even Beijing has woken upIn the past, Beijing was tagged the most polluted city in the world. However,the citys authorities have started implementing a strict air quality index andrelease regular air quality warnings with its implications on health. Not onlyhave they acknowledged their problem of air pollution but have also made itan important topic of political discussion. China has unveiled strict actionplans to curb its air pollution. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Province, the YangtzeRiver Delta and the Pearl River Delta were were asked to reduce their PM2.5 levels between 2013 and 2017 by 25 per cent, 20 per cent and 15 per centrespectively.Beijing has implemented an emergency response plan wherein authoritiesinform the public about bad air quality days. They suggest measures on howpublic can protect themselves, ask schools to shut down and 80 per cent ofgovernment-owned cars are to be taken off the road on red alert days. Onorange alert days when Beijing is slightly polluted (AQI 101-150, class 3),they shut down polluting factories. Even barbecues and fireworks are bannedon heavy pollution days.Air pollution is the fifth largest killer in India. When I returned to India in2013 from Scotland, I started experiencing breathing troubles and acutesinusitis. My doctor could only put me on steroidal sprays but was unable toidentify the exact cause. With time when I started working on the issue of airpollution and health in Delhi, I realised it was Delhis rising air pollutionthat was affecting my lungs. However, not many people in India research onair pollution to find out the severity of these levels. I was lucky.I was also part of the Centre for Science and Environment team thatmonitored some eminent and common citizens of Delhi to test their real timeexposure to fine particulate matter and the results were stunning While thepeaks of their real time exposure to PM2.5 crossed 1,000 g/cum, the24-hourly averages were 4-5 times higher than Indias safe standards(60g/cum) for ambient air quality. The worst-affected people were those

using public transport, including buses and autos. Why is it that Londonissues air quality alerts on reaching 66 g/cum when Delhi does not haveany warning on crossing 500 g/cum? The most impacted are children andthe elderly. Recent studies have also reported that air pollution is reducingIndias life expectancy by 3.2 years. How many lives would it take for ourgovernment to wake up? On days when China would shut down its schoolsand factories and Paris would remove cars from the road, India sleepsunaware.Indian government needs to acknowledge this problem wholeheartedly andimplement our proposed national air quality index to inform people on theimpacts of air pollution on particularly bad days and also take stringentmeasures to reduce it. It also needs to expand the real time air qualitymonitoring throughout India, starting with the worst polluted cities. Wedemand clean air. Let us not make respiratory diseases a part of our culture.

A year after worst Ebola outbreak, world is stillunprepared to tackle such epidemics

Viruses, not wars, may kill people in large numbers in future

A year into worlds worst epidemic of Ebola, the world does not seem betterprepared in any way to handle outbreaks of the type caused by the tiny virus thatleft nearly 10,000 people dead and millions affected. Even today, scientists havenot certified an Ebola vaccine that can prevent further outbreaks; and researchershave not been able to establish the source of this unprecedented outbreak. Thisexplains the challenges that are facing doctors, researchers, decision makers andthe vulnerable populations.

Though the outbreak has subsided now, it would not be over as late as August,says World Health Organization (WHO) in one of its reports.Till now, the currentoutbreak has claimed about 10,000 lives, destroyed several families, renderedmillions in the West African region food insecure, and is posing livelihood threatto millions who managed to survive the deadly outbreak. The World FoodProgramme has already warned that 1.4 million people could becomemalnourished because of Ebola.

For West Africa, the vulnerability of whose health systems has been exposed, thechallenges go on from providing better infrastructure to scaling up ofimmunization activities. If anything kills over 10 million people in the nextdecades, it is most likely to be a highly infectious virus, rather than a war: notmissiles, but microbes, says philanthropist Bill Gates in a latest TED talk. Butbefore that, the challenge for established medical research centres in the US, theUK and other parts of the developed world, is to develop and provide suchvaccines to those who cannot afford to manufacture them on their own.

Though drug trials have been initiated and allowed by the WHO after immensepressure and criticism from the international communites, the road ahead is noteasy. Funding and inadequate health infrastructurehave a major role to play inoutbreaks like these, Tarik Jasarevic, spokesperson of WHO, told Down To Earth.A few researchers say there was not much interest or funds to study the diseasethat affected only the poor living in the hinterlands. This is for the first time thevirus has afflicted those living in urban areas, including capital cities, and a fewforeign nationals. Moreover, this was also the deadliest among five strains ofEbola that has hit humans till now since the time the Ebola virus was firstdiscovered in the 1970s.

Another basic problem has been highlighted in a report by Medicins SansFrontiers (MSF), a non profit that was closely involved in treating Ebola patients.To declare an end to the outbreak, we must identify every last case, requiring alevel of meticulous precision that is practically unique in medical humanitarianinterventions in the field. There is no room for mistakes or complacency; thenumber of new cases weekly is still higher than in any previous outbreak, MSFsays. Though a few recent technological developments like that of an Ebola-prooftablet will make it easy for the doctors to handle and analyse patient information,more efforts are needed to ensure awareness against the causes behind suchdiseases. Cultural practices like rubbing down bodies at funeral rites beforeinterment have been one of the prime reasons behind its rapid spread in theAfrican countries.

Tracking Ebola outbreak

It is widely believed that the first person to have succumbed to the disease in thecurrent outbreak was a two-year-old in a remote part of Guinea. However, no oneis sure how the virus entered the childs body. Researchers who have studied the

disease think the virus in transmitted from animals in the form of bushmeat andthat deforestation is one of the triggers of suchoutbreaks.http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/ebola-unleashedBut what weare sure about is that it took a further three months for the international healthbody to officially declare an outbreak and another few months to announce apublic health emergency. By the time an international emergency was declared inAugust 2014, nearly 1,000 people had succumbed to the deadly virus. Whatsmore, the declaration coincided with two health professionals from a US-basednon-profit, Samaritans Purse, contracting the disease in Liberia. The doctors,however, were successfully treated in the US. Soon after this, more people in theUS were affected and a Roman Catholic priest was reported dead in Spain. Thisled to more urgency for making treatments available as the internationalcommunity began to realise that the outbreak was not restricted to Africa.

How prepared is India?

Meanwhile, India was making all possible measures to check the entry of virusinto the country. The Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare had said thatit had put in place the same surveillance and tracking systems to check Ebola thatproved successful in Nigeria. Thermal scanners were set up in most of the 15major airports and more are likely to be purchased and installed..

It was strict measures that prevented Ebola from entering India. But had thevirus once crossed the security gates of any airport, it would have been next toimpossible to curb its spread. India has a huge population, and urban centres arevery densely packed. This could pose a challenge because it would be verydifficult to isolate patients and trace their contacts for observation. Theseelements could make containing Ebola more challenging in India than in someother countries, Peter Piot, co-discoverer of the Ebola virus and director of theLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, told Down To Earthhttp://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/unprepared-ebola.

All these threats are enough to make us realise that the fight has to go on for longand can be won only if people from different walks of life and different countrieswork together.

African countries to discuss INDCs, low-carbondevelopmentMeeting assumes importance in light of the new climate agreement to be signedin Paris in 2015

The 7th Africa Carbon Forum will take place in Morocco to discuss and consultthe African countries Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs).Ministers from these countries will meet from April 13-15 to also explore

opportunities for low-carbon development. INDCs are voluntary country-specificclimate actions required to be submitted well in advance before the Paris summit.

Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said, A visionary agreement in Pariscan, in concert with an inspirational suite of sustainable development goals, assistin further unlocking Africas inordinate potential for clean, green, low-carbondevelopment. She recognised the vital role that the Carbon Forum can playtowards this end.

The forum, which supports Africas access to green investment, will discusstrends in the international carbon market and look for strategies and models thatcan fast track the finance and mechanisms needed to realise these aims. Otheritems for discussion include finance and project opportunities from the GreenClimate Fund (GCF) and opportunities in result-based financing.

The Africa Carbon Forum is organised by UNFCCC, United Nations EnvironmentProgramme (UNEP), along with UNEP-DTU Partnership, World Bank (WB),African Development Bank (AfDB) and International Emissions TradingAssociation (IETA). The forum takes place under the umbrella of the NairobiFramework, which was launched in 2006 by then UN Secretary-General KofiAnnan. The aim of the forum was to assist developing countries, especially thosein subSaharan Africa, to improve their level of participation in the CleanDevelopment Mechanism (CDM).

Can Sendai Framework ensure a climate-resilientfuture?Sendai agreement needs to be dovetailed with sustainable development goalsand the new climate agreement that will be signed in Paris later this year

Negotiators in Sendai were supposed to agree on a much-needed, bold new planto build countries resilience to events like Cyclone Pam that has just devastatedVanuatu, one of the least developed nations.

Governments of 187 UNmember states have adopted a 15-year plan with targetsto substantially reduce deaths and economic losses from disasters. Called theSendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, it is the first major UNagreement on the post-2015 development agenda consisting of four major aimsand seven targets to be met by 2030. The Sendai plan, adopted last week at theUN Conference on Disaster Risk Resduction, will replace the existing HyogoFramework for Action (2005) that ends this year.

This first major UN agreement on the post-2015 development agenda will drive the futurefor a sustainable and disaster-resilient world along with the sustainable developmentgoals and the Paris climate agreement to be decided in September and Decemberrespectively this year.

Why world needs a new disaster framework

The Hyogo Framework for Action has been an important instrument for raising publicand institutional awareness, generating political commitment and focusing and catalysingactions by a wide range of stakeholders at all levels but much more is still left to be doneeven as the 10-year blueprint expires this year.

Over these 10 years, disasters continued to take a heavy toll on lives and property. Over700,000 people lost their lives, over 1.4 million were injured and approximately 23million were made homeless as a result of disasters. The total economic loss was morethan $1.3 trillion. Besides, around 144 million people were displaced by disastersbetween 2008 and 2012.

But the world is still far from prepared. Several gaps remain in addressing the underlyingdisaster risk factors to formulate goals and priorities for action and ensuring adequateresources for implementation.

The UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) had, in fact, expresseddisappointment over lack of political will and determination in promoting and integratingdisaster risk reduction into development programmes, as per the Hyogo Framework ofAction, and had demanded more action from the countries in its report released aheadof the disaster risk conference (see Natural disasters will soon cost world $314 billionannually: UN).

Negotiators in Sendai were supposed to agree on a much-needed, bold new plan to buildcountries resilience to events like Cyclone Pam that has just devastated Vanuatu, one ofthe least developed nations, say activists (Photo courtesy UN)

Governments of 187 UN member states have adopted a 15-year plan with targets tosubstantially reduce deaths and economic losses from disasters. Called the SendaiFramework for Disaster Risk Reduction, it is the first major UN agreement on thepost-2015 development agenda consisting of four major aims and seven targets to be metby 2030. The Sendai plan, adopted last week at the UN Conference on Disaster RiskResduction, will replace the existing Hyogo Framework for Action (2005) that ends thisyear.

This first major UN agreement on the post-2015 development agenda will drive the futurefor a sustainable and disaster-resilient world along with the sustainable developmentgoals and the Paris climate agreement to be decided in September and Decemberrespectively this year.

What the new framework saysDisaster-resilient 2030: seven targets under Sendai agreement

The framework outlines seven global targets to be achieved over the next15 years

1. $ A substantial reduction in global disaster mortality by 2030

2. $ A substantial reduction in number of affected people by 2030

3. $ A reduction in economic losses in relation to global GDP

$A substantial reduction in disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruption of basicser services, including health and education facilities

$ An increase in the number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction

strategies by 2020

$ Enhance international cooperation to developing countries through adequate and sustainablesu support to complement their national actions for implementation of this framework

$ Increased access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and

assessments.

4.

Addressing environment as the cross-cutting issue, the Sendai Frameworksuggests incorporating disaster risk reduction measures across various sectors,including those relating to poverty reduction, sustainable development, naturalresource management, environment, urban development and adaptation toclimate change.

Sendai Frameworks warning

"The effects of disasters, some of which have increased in intensity and have beenexacerbated by climate change, impede their [small island states] progress towardssustainable development, says the document. Even as this agreement has been adopted,

the 10-year review conducted by UNISDR showed over 87 per cent of the disasters wererelated to climate change.

Sendai disaster-risk targets contribute to achieving post-2015 agreements onsustainable development goals and climate.

Margareta Wahlstrm, head of UNISDR, said, This new framework opens amajor new chapter in sustainable development and the implementation will bevital to the achievement of future agreements on sustainable development goalsand climate later this year.

Connecting dots between new Sendai agreement, Post-2015Sustainable Development Goals and Paris climate agreement

All three agreements share a common aim of making development sustainable A synergy is clearly visible between the sustainable development goal (SDG 11)for safe and resilient cities with this disaster risk declaration which aims to reduceloss and damage of disasters on urban infrastructure and the community

Linkage between SDG3, focusing on health outcomes and disasters risk,also cannot be ignored. It may be noted that the target 3d of SDG 3 focusesspecifically on disaster risk reduction

The IPCC special report, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events andDisasters to Advance Climate Change (SREX), shows the linkages betweendisaster risk reduction in sustainable development and climate change adaptation.It details the role and opportunities involving a wide variety of stakeholders andcommunities in managing disaster risks due to the climate change.

Vague targets, low commitmentBut half-measures and disappointing business-as-usual financial commitmentsare the hurdles.

Not investing in disaster risk management is a missed opportunity for social,economic and environmental progress, says a report released at the conference,titled Unlocking the Triple Dividend of Resilience.

Although the insurance sector has pledged to double its investments to US $84billion by COP 21 (Paris Conference of Parties) and then increase it 10 times toUS $420 billion by 2020, commitments by the rich nations at this UN conferencewere disappointing.

Disappointed over the financial commitments by the developed nations, ScottPaul of Oxfam said that negotiators in Sendai were supposed to agree on amuch-needed, bold new plan to build countries resilience to events like CyclonePam that has just devastated Vanuatu, one of the least developed nations.

Instead, what was adopted is a set of half-measures that will not keep pace withrapidly rising disaster risk around the world. Lack of concrete financialcommitments threatens to undercut the international communitys anti-povertyagenda, he said.

Marcus Oxley from the Global Network ofCivil Society Organisations for Disaster Reduction (GNDR), expressed fear thattargets of the new agreement have been weakened in terms of how nations will beheld accountable to deliver the intended outcomes.

How much has the world lost due to disasters? Who is losing the most? Howmuch should the world plan to invest?

The world reported over $ 2.8 trillion (in constant 2005 US dollars) in economiclosses from natural disasters and Asia and the Pacific alone reported $ 1.15trillion of economic losses, amounting to 40.7 per cent of the global total.

An investment of just US $6 billion annually in disaster risk management wouldresult in avoided losses of US $360 billion over the next 15 years, said UNISDR,and advised governments to plan and set aside the required resources.

But disaster risk reduction planning must be integrated with broader global andnational efforts to achieve sustainable development. And with targets withoutnumbers and no substantial financial commitments from the rich nations,questions as to whether the disaster-risk conference fulfilled the expectations andthe new Sendai agreement can ensure a disaster and climate-resilient future,remain unanswered.

Sendai framework on disaster riskreduction disappointsGoals are without specific time plan and targetsOn the midnight of March 18, representatives from 187 UNmember statesadopted the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 withseven targets and four priorities for action. After the marathon negotiationsthat preceded the convention,one would have expected a clear cut action planand commitments from developed nations. So far, it is understood, only Japanmade some funding commitment for this proposal as the five-day-longconference wrapped up.

In 2013 cyclone Phailin ravaged over 300,000 houses in coastal Odisha inIndia's east coast, which is listed by Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange among regions of maximum vulnerability

Earlier proposals for percentage goals were rejected, so the current set lookslike vague targets. The current framework for 15 years replaces the 10 yearlong Hyogo Framework for Action. The Sendai Framework aims to lower theglobal mortality rate from disasters between 2020 and 2030, compared with2005 to 2015, and reduce the proportion of people affected.

Read moreNatural disasters will soon cost the world $314 billion annually: UN

Floods in 4 states lead to economic loss of Rs 19,000 crore in past one year

Disasters and the related devastations have increased in the last decade despite ofthe existence of the Hyogo Framework, the current Frameworkrecognises. During 2005-2015 alone, over 700,000 people lost their lives. Morethan 1.4 million people were injured and approximately 23 million becamehomeless due to disasters.

The worlds worry about disasters, more so due to climate change, has aggravatedmanifold as more than 1.5 billion people were affected by disasters in variousways during the last decade. Women, children and people in vulnerable situationswere disproportionately affected. The total economic loss was more than $1.3trillion. In addition, between 2008 and 2012, 144 million people were displacedby disasters.

Disasters induced by climate change have in fact increased in frequency andintensity. While there are more noises around large-scale disasters amongplanners globally, the conference rightly points out that recurring small-scaledisasters and slow-onset disasters particularly affect communities, householdsand small- and medium-sized enterprises. In fact, these sections of people face ahigh percentage of losses.

While all countries face mortality and economic losses from disasters, in the caseof developing countries these are disproportionately higher. In fact, poorcountries face increased levels of possible hidden costs and challenges to meetfinancial and other obligations. And, as we know, they are the least prepared tohandle the challenges. Take for example India that faces huge losses due toclimate change-induced disasters, so much so that the expenses on adaptationincreased from 2.6 per cent in 2012 to 6 per cent of the countrys GDP in 2014.And the country is even not able to assess the real (covering all areas and allintensities) losses and damages due to climate change properly.

Just take the water crisis faced by the nation, most of which is due to climatechangeglobal and local (growth induced)and you would realise the vastness ofthe problem that the country faces now. Eight of the 10 warmest years in thecountrys history fell in the last decade; and almost 54 per cent of the countrysgeographical areas face high to extremely high water stress. Things are gettingworse and we have not been able to cope with such disastrous situations.

The Sendai Framework recognises that the goals of sustainable development arebeing outsmarted by the gaps in progress and achievement agenda such as theMillennium Development Goals and have tried to give a perspective to overcomeall these so as to contribute meaningfully and substantially to the new eraDecember climate negotiations in Paris, however, the broadness of the goalswithout specific time plan and targets disappoint us.

It recognizes the need to develop an action-oriented framework thatGovernments and relevant stakeholders can implement in a supportive andcomplementary manner that can help to identify disaster risks to be managed and

guides investment to improve resilience. It also recognizes some vital factorsthat are contributing to the disasters and rightly mentions about the role ofunsustainable urbanisation.

However, it completely fails to discuss the way we produce our energy and theimpacts there from. Fossil fuel, especially coal, continues to be the major sourceof our energy. The GDP growth oriented economy, that most of the climatechange vulnerable countries such as India are following in fact not onlycontribute to global greenhouse gas emissions and disasters but also increase lotof local woes that club the impacts and devastate the poor the most.

The commitments for the Sendai Framework are voluntary but unless the signingcountries adhere to green growth models, most of the goals would remain to beaddressed in the same light even after 15 years. A new framework may then bedeveloped but the gaps in implementation and disasters would have grown.

Disturbance fromWest ceases, mercury setto riseRelief in sight for states in the grip of swine fluLatest data of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirms what mostIndians already know from experience. The data shows rainfall received betweenMarch 1 and 13 in most areas (coloured blue in the India map) has been in excessof 20 per cent or more. In this period, India normally receives about 9.8mm rainbut this time it has received 33.2 mm rain.

The figures in the map may not appear alarming but its important to note thatthese are the weighted average values (weighted mean). In this method ofaveraging, proper numerical weights (numbers) are assigned to every observationand then their weighted mean is calculated. Rainfall measurement is done in asimilar manner as explained by the National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration (NOAA) of the US. As per this technique, India reported a strong239 per cent departure (from normal) in rainfall in this period. The weather eventwhich lasted between February 28 and March 3 has been the major contributor inthis rainfall amount.

Swine flus link to weather eventsThese back to back rainfall events not only damaged the crops but also kept a lidon the maximum temperatures at many places. Such a condition is usuallyfavourable for the swine flu virus which has been causing a havoc in India.Maximum impact of swine flu is being reported from Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh,Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Delhi and Gujarat. State-wise per centrainfall departures (March 1 to March 11) in these states are astonishing. The percent rainfall departures (from normal) in Gujarat is 42,811; 2,757 for Rajasthan;

932 for Madhya Pradesh; 1,240 for Delhi; 720 for Telangana; 1,554 forMaharashtra and 750 for Uttar Pradesh. The rainfall amounts will be even morewhen the data from past week weather outbreak is considered.

After these havoc-causing events in the initial two weeks, weather in India hasstarted to stabilise. Going by the projection of weather models like GlobalForecast System (GFS), it looks like some significant heating is possible over thenext couple of days. This is likely to kick off the summer season in India. Themeteorological seasons in India, as defined by IMD, are pretty strange. Accordingto its definition, India has a winter season which lasts between January andFebruary but it doesnt have a summer season. Most of India (except for parts ofsouthern India) witnesses winter conditions mostly from November. IMD definesthe October- December period as a post monsoon period. It calls the period ofMarch to May (when India sweats due to significant heating) as the pre-monsoonseason.

As per GFS, no western disturbance is expected in India for (at least) one week.Plus, the upper air is also expected to remain stable as no trough is expected overIndia in the next few days. Hence, the weather is likely going to stay clear at mostof the places which would be an important factor in increasing the heat and hencethe temperatures--maximum and minimum. Even the swine flu-affected statesare going to witness significant heating which would likely result in a drop in thenumber of swine flu cases.

The above image gives an idea of the expected heating. Top map shows theexpected mean surface temperature (in degree Celsius) between March 18 and 26,2015. The scale is given to the left side. Bottom image shows the expectedtemperature anomaly (in degree Celsius). The long range forecast (March 26 toApril 3) given in the middle image may not be that reliable right now but it ispossible that the heating will continue in April first week also. Reddish regions inmuch of India indicate higher than normal temperatures. Below is what can beexpected till March 26, 2015.

Initially, places in Rajasthan would be getting a maximum temperature around35C and it may rise even further in the next week. Maximum temperature inJaipur is expected to remain near 32-33C in this period. Gujarat is also going toget higher maximum temperatures in the coming days. Significant heating ispossible due to which maximum temperatures will likely stay in the 35-40Crange. Maximum temperatures at places like Vidarbha in Maharashtra are likelyto near 40C. Other places like Marathwada will also witness maximumtemperatures around 35C in the coming period. Mumbai should be staying ataround 35C. Delhi, too, will start experiencing heating as maximumtemperatures will touch 30C initially and then will rise above 30C in the comingperiod. Places in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh will also be warm. Manyplaces in Telangana are already reporting a maximum temperature of around35C. The weather is likely to be similar in the coming period.

Al Gore's sunny proposal to IndiaClimate crusader and former US Vice President wants India torealise its solar potential; but solar energy alone cannot solveproblems of climate changeOn a warm Sunday morning in February, Nobel laureate and former US vicepresident Al Gore addressed a crowd of 450 participants (mostly between 25 to35 years) in India. The three-day Climate Reality Leadership Corp, organised byClimate Reality Project, was a unique training programme with participationfrom over 15 nationalities. Discussions on climate change and proposed solutionsfor the global crisis during different sessions by Gore and 20 other eminentspeakers were aimed at imparting skills to communicate the kinds of challengesand opportunities that climate change has brought about.

Having been involved with the issue of sustainable development for a decade as acorporate social responsibility (CSR) professional, I was excited to attend a talkby the climate crusader Gore whose craft in simplifying climate change isunparalleled.

Gore touched upon significant issues: sulphur rains on planet Venus, global CO2level of 400 parts per million or ppm in 2014 (experts claim 500 ppm is a criticalbarrier that will define environmental impact for the next 200 years), heat waves,heavy downpours, droughts; challenges of hunger, water supply shortage andinfrastructure meltdowns, among other things. His presentation that was loadedwith impressive charts and graphics also touched upon global warming-ledbiodiversity losses.

However, his pitch on air pollution in New Delhi seemed oversimplified. Hiscontention that burning fossil fuel to produce electricity increases air pollution isperhaps premised on his agenda to promote renewable energy. Given that most ofIndia gets 300 days of sun per year, Gores pitch to make us urgently realise ourfull solar potential is logical, but fails to sink its teeth into the nuances ofrenewable energy assimilation. Solar power alone cannot arrest problems ofclimate change, however ambitious Prime Minister Modis target of 100 GW solarpower by 2022 might be.

Pollution in India is not just due to fossil fuels burnt to produce electricityfumes from vehicles, many of which are global brands, add to it too. There is alsopollution due to disposal of e-waste dumped in India by developed countries likethe US. Why should the urgency to address climate change push renewableenergy, particularly solar, as the primary solution then?In 2014, the US had filed a complaint against India at the World TradeOrganization. The US alleged that India's National Solar Mission discriminatedagainst US solar equipment manufacturers as it required solar energy producers

to use locally manufactured cells, and offered subsidies to those who useddomestic (Indian-made) equipment. The country also alleged that forcedrequirements for localisation was a hurdle for US-made equipment coming toIndia, denying US companies a greater access to the vast Indian market of 1.2billion people. This explains US interest in Indias solar journey and offerscontext to Gores appreciation of PMs solar mission. It could well be apolitical-diplomatic move through generating mass consent.

It is equally interesting to note that Gore co-founded Generation InvestmentManagement (GIM) in 2004, which he continues to chair even today. GIMsvision is to embed sustainability in mainstream capital markets and financialinvestments. With funds like Global Equity, The Climate Solution, The Asia Fund,Al Gore has been accused by many critics of tapping into mass hysteria createdabout climate change. According to an article dated March 2013 in Forbesmagazine, both Gore and his investment partner David Blood have not onlyemphasised on the regulatory risk of fossil fuel investment, but also aggressivelyworked to ensure it. It further states that between 2008 and 2011, the companyhad raised profits of nearly US $218 million from institutions and wealthyinvestors.

Ironically, while the GIM investments were to be channelised towards clean andgreen renewable energy, it has mostly been invested in mainstream profit-makingcorporations and their products that include fast-moving consumer goods(FMCG), higher technology, medical instruments, among others. One of the fewsolar companies that the funds did initially invest into, First Solar Inc, crashedsoon enough mainly due to competition from cheaper Chinese solar panels andproducts. This led to greater cynicism regarding investments in the sector.According to Bloomberg .com, GIM dumped its last stock of First Solar (one ofUS largest solar panel makers) at a US $165.9 million loss in 2012.

This makes one wonder if Gores campaign for solar energy in India is alsobacked by business motivations. Two days after the Delhi event, First Solar Incannounced its plans to set up a manufacturing unit in India for its thin-filmmodules. The capacity is expected to be 5GW in next five years. Following thisSunEdison, a rival of First Solar, also announced that it would build the largestPhoto Voltaic (PV) factory in India. Sure solar investments are good for India, butonly with local context plugged into it.

Further, as per International Energy Agency, Indias energy demand by 2040 willbe 15 per cent below European Union (EU), but the needed power output willexceed that of EU, due to transmission and distribution losses (if we continue asper current trends). Solar and wind could thus provide an answer to some ofthese predicaments and help decentralise energy demand. However, how much ofthis actually takes off in terms of operational and cost efficiencies remains to beseen.

In the seminar, Gore noted that Germany generates 37 per cent of its dailyelectricity from wind and solar, and that analysts predict that the number will riseto 50 per cent by 2020. What he did not point out was that German householdspay the second highest power costs in Europe, as much as 30 per cent more thanother Europeans. The German industrial electricity prices have also doubled as aresult of rising surcharges due to the expansion of renewable energy, TheEconomist suggests. Unless renewable energy subsidies try to contain thesespiraling costs, even countries like Germany will find it difficult to balance costswith energy consumption.

There were several other local aspects around the climate change discourse thatdid not find much place in Gores argument. Climate change adaptation(especially for the poor), role of local techniques such as watershed managementin curbing water run offs from heavy downpours, climate change impact ongender and the need for disaster management in case of an eventuality neededmuch more attention.

In his dramatic closing remarks, Gore suggested that we all must advocate, speakup and win all conversations related to climate reality, hoping that this buildspressure on governments and people to act on the issue urgently. While Indiastrives to deliver on some these promises, the complete truth of climate realityremains (in)conveniently under wraps.

Raining troublesLittle-understood western disturbances have been blamed for most of the freakweather events in India in the past decade. With 50 per cent of its foodgrainproduction at risk, can India afford to ignore the phenomenon?

The sight of wheat, mustard, gram and fenugreek crops spread over 10 hectares(ha) would fill Vidyadhar Olkhas heart with joy. It was end of February and thecrops were almost ready to be harvested. A week later, all he had was a mat ofleaves and stalks lying on the ground. The rain and hailstorm in the first week ofMarch destroyed 70 per cent of his crops in Jhunjhunu district of Rajasthan.

Olkha has no idea what brought so much rain this March. Neither do scientistsand weather forecasters, who attribute the rain to western disturbances and havedifferent theories on what made the disturbances so severe this year.

Western disturbances are low-pressure areas embedded in the Westerlies, theplanetary winds that flow from west to east between 30-60 latitude. Theyusually bring mild rain during January-February, which is beneficial to the rabicrop. But in the past few years western disturbances have been linked to disasters.

The cloud burst in Leh in 2010, the floods and landslide in Uttarakhand in 2013and the excessive rain in Jammu and Kashmir in 2014 were all linked to thesedisturbances. This year, as per the India Meteorological Department (imd), theaverage rain received between March 1 and March 18 was 49.2 mm197 per centabove normal. This caused severe damage to crops in several states of the country.According to a statement by Union agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh inthe Rajya Sabha on March 19, crops in over 5 million hectares have beendamaged. But despite the destruction the disturbances have been causing, therehave been very few studies to understand them.

Scientists agree that western disturbances are formed naturally. They originate inthe Mediterranean region and travel over Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan toenter India loaded with moisture, where the Himalayas obstruct them, causingrain and snow in western Himalayas. The snow adds to the glaciers which providewater to Indias major perennial rivers. But what is it that is making thisbeneficial weather phenomenon increasingly disastrous?

Theories aboundThere is no unanimity among scientists on the reasons behind the changes in thephenomenon. They offer a number of explanations:

Easterly wave:According to IMD, the severe rain this year is the result of the confluence ofwestern disturbance and easterly wave from the Bay of Bengal. Easterly wave, orEasterlies, blow throughout the year from east to west. The confluence of the twowinds happens throughout the year, but the results vary. They generally bringrain only to the northern part of the country but this year states in central andsouth India also received rain, says B P Yadav, head of IMDs National WeatherForecasting Centre. Western parts of Madhya Pradesh, for instance, received over2,025 times more than usual rainfall during March 1-18, while the rainfall incentral Maharashtra was 3,671 times above normal, says IMD data. Yadav saysthe change in rain pattern is part of natural weather variation.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation:Jason Nicholls, senior meteorologist and manager of international forecasting atAccuWeather Inc, a global leader in weather information services, offers a morecomplicated reason. He says a phenomenon called Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) contributed to the severity of this years rainfall. PDO is the name given tolong-term fluctuations in the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean. In areasabove 20 north off the western coast of North America, cooling is observedduring the negative phase of PDO while warming is observed during the positivephase. This shift from one phase to another happens every 10 years or inmultiples of 10 years and is yet to be understood properly. PDO influences the

placement and intensity of ridges (high-pressure areas) and troughs(low-pressure areas) over the northern hemisphere. Nicholls says that the wetwinter seen this year and in 2013-14 was caused due to the impact of a verystrong positive PDO. The warm waters in the west coast of North America led toa strong ridge over the Gulf of Alaska and western Canada. Another ridgeprevailed over the central Atlantic Ocean which allowed storm systems to movethrough Europe into southeast Europe and the Middle East. A weakness betweena couple of such ridges allowed storm systems to move into Afghanistan, Pakistanand northern India over the past couple of winters/springs, he explains.

Scientists' take

"Our study suggests that human-induced climate change isthe reason for the increased variability of westerndisturbance"

-R Krishnan, scientist, Indian Institute of TropicalMeteorology, Pune

"The confluence of Westerlies and eastern currents broughtrain to far off states such as Maharashtra"

- B P Yadav, head, National Weather Forecasting Centre,IMD

"A phenomenon called Pacific Decadal Oscillation made therains so excessive this time"

- Jason Nicholls,senior meteorologist, AccuWeather Inc

"The rain can be mostly explained by natural short-termweather events. There is nothing too unusual or any sign ofclimate change"

- Thomas Reichler, scientist, University of Utah, USA

Jet streams: Akshay Deoras, an independent weather expert based inMaharashtra, says that widely used weather models, such as the Global ForecastSystem, are consistently showing the movement of new upper air troughs intoIndia. Such troughs in the jet streams (narrow bands of strong winds flowing inthe upper troposphere) could be affecting the western disturbances which, imdsays, are present in the lower and middle troposphere. One such trough startedforming in the upper troposphere over Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan onFebruary 26 and intensified and moved towards north-western parts of India onFebruary 28. This led to the formation of a low-pressure region in the lowertroposphere over northwest India, causing an incursion of moisture from ArabianSea, and produced heavy rains. The rainfall on March 14-16 was also caused by asimilar upper air weather set-up. This shows how problematic the combination ofwestern disturbances and upper air troughs can be for India, says Deoras.

But all these explanations are based on climatic phenomena that have alwaysexisted. What is making their impact increasingly severe now? A few studies saythat global warming holds the clues.

Heating of the Tibetan plateau:A study by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, has directlylinked western disturbances to global warming. In a paper published in ClimateDynamics in February 2015, the researchers say global warming is impacting aircurrents and causing freak weather events. Pronounced warming over theTibetan plateau in recent decades has increased the instability of the Westerliesand this has increased the variability of the western disturbances. According tothe study, the western Himalayan region has seen a significant rise in surfacetemperatures since the 1950s. Observations from the area show a significantincrease in precipitation in recent decades. The researchers looked at a variety ofclimate data to understand the increasing frequency of heavy precipitation. Theysay temperatures have risen in the middle- and upper-tropospheric levels overthe sub-tropics (area between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn)and the middle latitudes. Our study suggests that human-induced climatechange is the reason for the increased variability of western disturbance, says RKrishnan, one of the researchers. The findings are based on direct observationsand we are now using climate models to confirm if the impact is human-induced,says Krishnan.

Arctic warming:Another study which blames global warming is by Jennifer Francis of RutgersUniversity, New Jersey, and S J Vavrus of University of Wisconsin- Madison,

both in the US. The study, published in the January issue of EnvironmentResearch Letters, suggests that heating up of the Arctic has weakened the jetstreams in the northern hemisphere. The west to east flow of jet streams in thenorthern hemisphere is maintained by the gradient of heat between the coolArctic and warmer areas near the equator. But the Arctic has been warming sincethe past 20 years due to which the jet streams have become weaker. Rather thancircling in a relatively straight path, jet streams now meander. This is making theSouth colder and the North warmer. Francis says western disturbances coulddefinitely be affected by these jet streams.

Regional factors at play'

There are also those who believe that climate change is not the culprit. Scientistslike Thomas Reichler from the department of atmospheric sciences, University ofUtah, USA, do not link global warming and abnormal weather events. These canbe mostly explained by natural short-term weather events. There is nothing toounusual or any sign of climate change, says Reichler.

Newly appointed IITM director M Rajeevan also does not subscribe to the theoryof global warming and says that such events are regional.

There does seem to be an increase in western disturbances, but it appears to bepart of natural variability. A variety of factors could be at play and a detailedanalysis is needed, he says (see Enigmatic disturbances). Dieter Scherer, chairof climatology, Technische Universitt Berlin, Germany, holds a similar view. Itis well-known that precipitation is a highly complex phenomenon caused byprocesses on a wide range of spatial scales. These highly complex multi-scaleatmospheric processes are yet not fully understood and need more research, saysScherer.

Rajesh Kapadia, a meteorology enthusiast who writes on weather trends in hisblog vagaries of the weather, points out that there is nothing extraordinary aboutthe event and India has witnessed similar weather events. In March 1915, Delhireceived 78 mm of rain while in March 1945, the temperature recorded in thecity was as low as 4.4C. We have had cold weather even in May, he says, givingthe example of May 14, 1982, when the temperature dipped to 25C. There isnothing to worry about as of now, but if this weather continues it might affectmonsoon in north India. However, it is too early to know, he says.

Enigmatic disturbancesThere is not much data on western disturbances. According to A PDimri, professor, school of environment science, Jawaharlal NehruUniversity, New Delhi, there has been very little research onwestern disturbances because most researchers prefer to study the

monsoon which is considered lifeline of Indian agriculture. RKrishnan,a scientist at the Indian Institute of TropicalMeteorology, says that even defining or counting a disturbance istricky because when western disturbance moves over a longdistance, its strength changes and one can never be sure when anew disturbance gets formed or an existing one undergoes change.These disturbances originate thousands of kilometres away andtravel over countries where data collection is sparse. India hasfacilities to study the weather but observational data fromAfghanistan and Pakistan is virtually non-existent, says AJayaraman, director, National Atmospheric Research Laboratory,Department of Space.

B P Yadav, head of IMD's National Weather Forecasting Centre,says that more disturbances are being observed these days becausethe technology to detect, monitor and predict has improved. IMD isnow undertaking studies to understand western disturbance, Yadavadds.

The trends are likely to continue and the country could see a few moredisturbances in March and April. The peak activity of western disturbances isusually seen in January. This year they were delayed and the cold, wet weathercould spill over to April too, says G P Sharma, vice-president, meteorology,Skymet Weather Services, a Noida-based forecasting company. Rains in Aprilcould have huge implications for agriculture, Sharma says.

Rabi crop accounts for 51 per cent of the countrys grain output and sustainsIndias requirements till October till the kharif crop is harvested. Therefore, thewinter crop has a significant bearing on food inflation. The fact that kharif yieldin 2014 was below normal makes the situation even more grim. And the impact ofcrop damage has already started percolating to consumers. Vegetable pricesincreased by 30-40 per cent after rains in Delhis wholesale markets.

Losses and government aidAs states calculate crop loss, there are reports of farmer suicides in Maharashtraand Uttar Pradesh. Protests have also reached Delhi, where farmers have beenholding an indefinite demonstration at the Jantar Mantar fromMarch 18,demanding compensation. While the Union government has assured all help,states too have been announcing relief packages. Maharashtra, which has beenstruggling with drought and is now faced with excessive rain and hailstorm, hasannounced a compensation package of Rs.7,000 crore. Of this, Rs.4,000 crorehave already been credited to the bank accounts of 78 per cent farmers in thestate, said a state government press release on March 16. The state has alsodemanded Rs.6,000 crore from the Central government.

In Rajasthan, Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje announced on March 16 that if thecrop loss is over 50 per cent, farmers will get aid and exemption from paying

electricity bill. However, the survey to assess the damage has not beencompleted. It should end by March 25 and compensation should be availablethereafter, Rajasthan agriculture minister Prabhu Lal Saini told Down To Earth.For the families of the 25 people who died due to the calamity in the state, Rajehas announced a compensation of Rs.3 lakh. Relief packages have also beenpromised by states such as Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh.

Ill-prepared for disasters

This raises the question of what could have been done to prevent the loss of crops,particularly at a time when India is witnessing a spate of extreme weather events.According to World Bank, between 1996 and 2000, direct losses from naturaldisaster cost India over 2 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP). Withoutadequate measures to mitigate climate change, these costs could amount to 10per cent of the gdp by 2100, warns an Asian Development Bank report released in2014. A few weeks ago, the 14th Finance Commission recommended a whoppingRs.55,000 crore allocation for disaster risk reduction. This is more than doublethe amount recommended by the 13th Finance Commission.

The situation needs to be dealt with at two levels: a proper scientific analysis ofwestern disturbances to make accurate forecast and a long-term adaptation planfor farmers. Yadav says imd can predict a disturbance a week or 10 days inadvance. But there is little one can do to prepare for the effects of the disturbance.The most farmers can do is to ensure that the fields are well-drained and, if timeallows, set up nets for protection from hailstorms.

The grimmest aftermath of the weather event is the surge in farmer suicides. Andwhile the disturbances cannot be avoided, effective planning can definitely helpcontain the loss of lives. For starters, the Centre must prioritise crop insuranceand ensure that the existing schemes are implemented effectively. Recentexperiences have shown that many of these freak weather events are localised andaffect some farmers more than others. By taking averages of crop loss over largeareas, as stipulated in the existing schemes, the government fails to help thepeople who need help the most. Farmers are worried. It is no longer acceptable toconsider these weather events normal. The scientists and the government need tomeet the challenge.

DarkfutureforcoalTheHimalayanwaters:complexchallengesandregWhenwillIndiawakeuptofreedomfromairpollutAyearafterworstEbolaoutbreak,worldisstillAfricancountriestodiscussINDCs,low-carbondevCanSendaiFrameworkensureaclimate-resilientfuSendaiframeworkondisasterriskreductiondisappDisturbancefromWestceases,mercurysettoriseAlGore'ssunnyproposaltoIndiaRainingtroubles