Date post: | 23-Jun-2015 |
Category: |
Technology |
Upload: | ilantern |
View: | 472 times |
Download: | 0 times |
Data Blunders or BIG WINS?
Images: Fox
TARGET KNOWS YOU’RE PREGNANT BEFORE YOU TELL ANYONE
“Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.”-Aaron Levenstein
Target’s Data Analytics is Spot On
Young woman changes purchasing habits and Target is ON IT.
What does she buy?
A purse big enough to be a diaper bag
Unscented lotion Small blue rug Vitamins
Target sends a flyer addressed to her with coupons for baby items
She was actually pregnant and had purchased those items because of her pregnancy BUT….
Target’s Only Oops
She was a teenager in high school and was living with her parents.
Her father, understandably upset, went to Target to complain to manager.
Her father, Later apologized to Target when he found out his daughter was actually pregnant
Images: Fox
Lessons from Target
Trust your data! It was absolutely correct in this case
Use that data to your advantage. Just make sure you keep an eye on key data points
- Knowing she was 16, and therefore not sending her targeted coupons would’ve prevented a headache
As Target later did, introduce targeted ads and coupons mixed in with random, untargeted ones
- They now mix baby ads with lawnmower ads, etc.
In short, don’t freak people out with your hyper-accurate data
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you in trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so” – Mark Twain
LITTLE BIG HORN AND CUSTER’S
BIG BIG MISTAKE
Custer Began with Inaccurate Data
Only Native Americans not living on reservations would be involved
According to his strategist, there would be 800 Native American warriors at most
The Accurate Data
Custer commanded 650 US Soldiers
Native Americans from reservations joined the non-reservation warriors to fight against CusterSome estimates
show as many as 2,500 Native American warriors
Bad Data Bad Results
Colonel Custer lost the battle and his life
Almost half of his troops were either killed or wounded
Native American forces lost ~1/8 of their men
Instead….
Don’t make the data fit what you want or expect; let the data tell you what the truth is
“Errors using inadequate data are much less than those using no data at all.” -Charles Babbage, inventor of the first mechanical computer
YES, EVEN GOOGLE IS WRONG SOMETIMES
Google Mines Your Data
Google AdWords and AdSense target ads based on your Google searches
Using that data, a digital profile of you is created
Profiles are sometimes hilariously wrong
How Wrong is Google?
Meet Ben, an iLantern intern
He speaks English and French.
He likes airplanes, electronics, and finance.
He is 25.
Google’s version of Ben
- He speaks Japanese.
- He likes cleaning agents, Reggaeton, and women’s clothing.
- He is 35-44.
Ben’s Not the Only One…
Joel Stein, TIME Magazine (Check out this article on Data Mining)
• He lives in LA, not NYC• He rents compact cars, not
sports cars• He is upper-middle class,
not “high net worth”• He is a TIME columnist, not
a medical professional• He doesn’t drive a truck
Meet Joel Stein, Journalist
85% Ain’t so Bad, Google.
Google’s overall profile was about 85% correct for our intern, and that seems to hold true for a small poll of our friends’ Google Ads profiles
When dealing with targeted ads, having millions of profiles that are ~85% accurate is incredibly impressive and lucrative (That’s right, show me the money!)
Lessons Learned
If the data is sensitive, treat it as such
Just because you want the numbers to point in a direction doesn’t mean they do
Mostly accurate data can work in the right context – just be absolutely sure it’s the right context
Not every datum is relevant – you must eliminate extraneous data
Correlation does not prove causation
“True genius resides in the capacity for evaluation of uncertain, hazardous, and conflicting information.”-Winston Churchill
CLICK HERE to learn more about iLantern and our love of
data
www.ilantern.com