JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY

December 2015

DATA COLLECTION SURVEY ON CROSS-BORDER MARITIME TRAFFIC IN SOUTH ASIA

PADECO-OCDI-JERI-OCG

Seminar on

Outline of the Survey

Yuichiro Motomura Team Leader/Cross-border Transport Infrastructure Planner

JICA Survey Team

Significant economic growth in South Asia

• Combined GDP of the Region has reached a level comparable to ASEAN and will grow further.

Low intra-regional trade ratio

• Intra-regional trade in the Region has been very low.

JICA’s contribution to regional connectivity

• JICA has been active in improving regional connectivity in ASEAN. Now is the time for JICVA to contribute to regional connectivity in South Asia. 3

Background (1/2)

Long run demand for maritime traffic

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Background (2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2004 2013

100 in 2004

Import

Export

GDP

• The current down-turn in shipping industry may last another year.

• In the long run demand for maritime traffic will grow substantially to fit the level of economic activities of the Region.

Import/export grows much faster than GDP, so as the needs for maritime transport.

1. To propose industry/supply-chain trend scenarios and logistics scenarios of major industries for the South Asia region for 2030.

2. To make recommendations on the direction and possibilities of JICA cooperation for ports and maritime transportation in South Asia.

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Objectives

Field survey coverage countries and ports

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Ports Surveyed

Country 1st Survey (Jul/Aug) 2nd Survey (Sep/Oct) Secondary

Source Only Bangla- desh

Chittagong, Mongla, Ports surrounding Dhaka (incl. Pangaon/ Narayanganj)

--- Matabari area

India Mundra/ Kandla, Mumbai/ JNPT, Cochin, Tuticorin, Paradip, Kolkata

Hazira, Mormugao, New Mangalore, Kattupalli/ Krishnapatnam, Visakhapatnam, Kolkata, Colachel/ Vizhinjam

Pipavav, Dahej, Chennai/ Ennore/ Kakinada, Haldia

Pakistan Port Bin Qasim, Karachi

Gwadar

Sri Lanka

Colombo, Hambantota, Trincomalee, Galle

Colombo, Trincomalee, Galle

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Survey Schedule

• First country visit • Field survey Jul/Aug-15

• Second country visit • Field survey Sep/Oct-15

• Regional seminar • Interim presentation and discussion Dec-15

• Third country visit • Discussion on Draft Final Report Jan-16

• Final Report Feb-16

To formulate and examine “macroeconomic scenarios”, “industry and supply chain scenarios”, and “freight transport network scenarios” for the Region

To analyze the maritime transport in region-wide, and long term perspectives

To apply advanced spatial economic model and maritime transport assignment model for quantitative analysis

To propose both hard and soft projects which are highly desirable to further regional integration

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Main Features of the Survey

Macroeconomic Scenario

Macroeconomic Scenario

Freight Transport Scenario

Freight Transport Scenario

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Scenarios Examined

Supply Chain Scenario

Infrastructure Demand Infrastructure Demand

GDP/GRDP in the following cases: Base case Upside case Downside case

Flow of goods in the Regional supply chain Textile/garment Oil/Oil-related Automobile Machinery

Development of freight transport network by: Container cargo / Non-container cargo International shipping routes

Land logistics

Flow of Scenario Analysis

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Utilization of model and data of IDE-JETRO

Non-tariff Barriers

Labor Cost

Global Demand

Formation/ Evolution of

Supply Chain

Customs Duties

Sector GRDP

Headline GDP

Headline GRDP

Sector GRDP

Headline GDP

Headline GRDP

Cost Factor

Revenue Potential

2030 Present

Container

Macro Economy

Freight Demand

Driver

Bulk

Vehicle

Container

Bulk

Vehicle

Infra- structure Demand

Port Access Road

Soft …

Port Access Road

Soft …

Assessment of shortage in infrastructure capacity

GSM

Container Assignment

Model

GDP: Gross Domestic Product GRDP: Gross Regional Domestic Product GSM: Geographical Simulation Model

Economic Impact of Port Improvement and NTB Reduction

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Evaluation of Projects

• Projects to be identified in each country

• Project evaluation criteria: strategic importance, growth potential, hinterland growth potential, demand level, cost, ease in implementation, and importance to Japan.

• A short list of projects for potential Japan’s assistance

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Thank you!

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