Data download available on our Power Portal EUR/MWh www ... · Borzesti 7 RO Coal 194 01.08.2017...

HUPX+SEE SPOT SUPPORT WWW.BALKANENERGY.COM

1

Hour 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Price 49 45 54 53 56 64 77 82 90 83 79 78 77 73 76 76 79 79 84 91 80.3 73.8 72 64.3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

EUR/MWh +500 MW Buyers

+400 MW Buyers

+300 MW Buyers

+200 MW Buyers

+100 MW Buyers

Price

-100 MW Buyers

-200 MW Buyers

-300 MW Buyers

-400 MW Buyers

-500 MW Buyers

HUPX hourly price change In case of increase/decrease

of Buyers volume - for 25.10.2018

HUPX Forecast for 26.10.2018Update at 25.10.2018 - 09:45 CET

Base: 72.3 EUR/MWh

Peak: 80.4 EUR/MWh

Data download available on our Power Portal

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

EUR/MWh

+500 MW Buyers

+400 MW Buyers

+300 MW Buyers

+200 MW Buyers

+100 MW Buyers

-500 MW Buyers

-400 MW Buyers

-300 MW Buyers

-200 MW Buyers

-100 MW Buyers

HUPX relative price change in case of increase/decrease

of Buyers volume - for 25.10.2018

Day-ahead and Week-ahead HUPX forecast

HUPX+SEE SPOT Support

www.portal.balkanenergy.com

49 45

54 53 56

64

77 82

90

83 79 78 77

73 76 76

79 79 84

91

80

74 72

64

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

26-Oct-18 HUPX base HUPX peak

Week 44 at average October temperatures

Base: 59.4 EUR/MWh

Peak: 72.8 EUR/MWh

Full Week-ahead report: pages 12-13

HUPX Forecast for Week 44Update at 25.10.2018 - 08:30 CET

40

50

60

70

80

29-10 30-10 31-10 01-11 02-11 03-11 04-11

Base Peak


Week-ahead forecast summary

http://www.balkanenergy.com/

http://www.portal.balkanenergy.com/

http://www.portal.balkanenergy.com


2

Balkan Energy Your reliable source of energy info

Market arbitration profits and spreads

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

EUR/MWh AT > HU (price spread - daily capacity cost AT>HU)

25.10. (THU) 24.10. (WED) 23.10. (TUE)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

EUR/MWh HU > HR (price spread - daily capacity cost HU>HR)

25.10. (THU) 24.10. (WED) 23.10. (TUE)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

EUR/MWh HU > GR (price spread - daily capacity cost HU>SR, SR>MK, MK>GR)

25.10. (THU) 24.10. (WED) 23.10. (TUE)

THU WED TUE MON SUN SAT FRI

AT > HU 25.10. 24.10. 23.10. 22.10. 21.10. 20.10. 19.10.

Base 15.32 10.10 20.46 11.43 0.34 3.16 4.81

Peak 18.81 6.19 26.36 17.23 4.37 7.79 7.93

HU > HR 25.10. 24.10. 23.10. 22.10. 21.10. 20.10. 19.10.

Base -4.84 -0.80 1.90 2.33 -2.56 -2.99 -2.20

Peak -10.29 -3.41 2.08 0.66 -7.91 -6.35 -2.93

HU > GR 25.10. 24.10. 23.10. 22.10. 21.10. 20.10. 19.10.

Base -0.46 1.70 7.54 -3.33 0.84 1.02 -2.91

Peak -3.44 -3.44 4.40 -7.30 -0.42 -3.08 -6.75

Arbitration profit (spread, daily capacity, EUR/MWh)

* before price: one or more hours with zero ATC was offered for that product, on daily auction

ATC = 0 : whole product had zero ATC on daily auctions

THU WED TUE MON SUN SAT FRI

AT - HU 25.10. 24.10. 23.10. 22.10. 21.10. 20.10. 19.10.

Base -16.86 -15.42 -26.25 -13.22 -2.73 -4.68 -5.49

Peak -21.16 -14.29 -35.03 -19.78 -8.15 -9.96 -8.73

HU - HR 25.10. 24.10. 23.10. 22.10. 21.10. 20.10. 19.10.

Base 4.67 0.17 -2.29 -2.86 2.14 2.48 1.97

Peak 10.14 2.99 -2.31 -0.89 7.65 6.00 2.84

HU - GR 25.10. 24.10. 23.10. 22.10. 21.10. 20.10. 19.10.

Base -5.91 -11.45 -14.45 -3.18 -13.47 -7.51 -2.32

Peak 3.25 2.79 -4.84 6.77 -7.47 0.54 6.39

Price spread (EUR/MWh)


3


Live outage info TPPs Type MW Event From To

ACTIVE Unplanned outages relevant for 26.10.2018

TPPs Type MW Event From To

Paks U5 HU Nuclear -57 Outage 24.10.2018, 15:30 24.10.2018, 19:00




TES G6 SLO Coal -115 Outage 24.10.2018, 11:30 24.10.2018, 12:30

Dunamenti G7 HU Gas 269 Outage 24.10.2018, 00:00 27.10.2018, 00:00

Dunamenti G8 HU Gas 132 Outage 24.10.2018, 00:00 27.10.2018, 00:00

Craiova G2 RO Coal 131 Outage 24.10.2018, 00:00 26.10.2018, 00:00

Djerdap G6 SER Hydro 190 Outage 23.10.2018, 06:00 11.11.2018, 23:59

Paks U3U4 HU Nuclear 476 Outage 20.10.2018, 20:00 26.10.2018, 23:59

Turceni G4 RO Coal 313 Outage 17.10.2018, 00:00 28.10.2018, 23:59

RECENT Unplanned outages relevant for past 3 days

TPPs Type MW Event From To

Maritsa 3 G2 BG Coal 227 Outage 23.10.2018, 14:00 25.10.2018, 14:00

Bucuresti S G3 RO Gas 84 Outage 22.10.2018, 12:00 25.10.2018, 23:59

Maritsa 3 G3 BG Coal 227 Outage 22.10.2018, 01:40 23.10.2018, 18:00

TES G5 SLO Coal 305 Outage 20.10.2018, 23:00 24.10.2018, 06:00

Bitola G1 MK Coal 225 Outage 20.10.2018, 00:00

Thermal unit outages and maintenances

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000HU+ExYU+AL (HUPX region) - MW out of operation

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

22-Oct 23-Oct 24-Oct Today D+1 27-Oct 28-Oct 29-Oct 30-Oct 31-Oct 1-Nov

Romania - MW out of operation

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800Bulgaria - MW out of operation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500Slovakia - MW out of operation

22-Oct 23-Oct 24-Oct 25-Oct 26-Oct 27-Oct 28-Oct 29-Oct 30-Oct 31-Oct 1-Nov

HU+ExYU+AL 2,513 1,958 2,359 1,883 1,883 1,482 1,482 1,482 1,482 1,482 1,482

Romania 2,966 2,966 3,097 2,966 2,966 2,966 2,966 2,358 2,358 2,358 2,358

Bulgaria 1,570 1,570 1,570 1,343 343 343 343 343 343 343 343

Slovakia 470 470 470 470 470 470 470 470 470 0 0


4


Planned outages for Week 44

TPPs Type MW From To

Dunamenti G15 HU Gas 156 15.10.2018 28.11.2018


Kolubara G5 SER Coal 110 15.07.2018 29.10.2018

Djerdap 1 G2 SER Hydro 176 03.09.2018 31.12.2018

RHE B.Basta G4 SER Pump 105 15.10.2018 31.10.2018

TENT A G2 SER Coal 210 12.09.2018 31.10.2018

Ugljevik G1 BA Coal 300 09.10.2018 15.11.2018

Mochovce TG1 Sk Nuclear 235 15.09.2018 30.10.2018


Minitia G3 RO Coal 220 19.10.2018 10.11.2018

Isalnita 8 RO Coal 295 21.10.2018 30.11.2018

Craiova 2 G1 RO Coal 131 23.06.2018 15.11.2018

Turceni G7 RO Coal 317 20.10.2018 15.11.2018

Turceni G5 RO Coal 313 11.10.2018 10.11.2018

Iernut 6 Ro Gas 188 14.08.2018 31.12.2018

Mintia 6 RO Coal 195 01.09.2018 30.11.2018

Borzesti 7 RO Coal 194 01.08.2017 30.10.2018

Brazi 5 RO Gas 98 01.05.2018 31.10.2018

Brazi 6 RO Gas 98 01.05.2018 31.10.2018

Maritsa 2 G8 BG Coal 343 17.08.2018 20.11.2018

Planned in next 30 days

TPPs Type MW from to



Paks U1 HU Nuclear 240 10.11.2018 04.12.2018

Paks U2 HU Nuclear 240 10.11.2018 04.12.2018



TENT A G2 SER Coal 210 12.09.2018 31.10.2018


Ugljevik G1 BA Coal 300 09.10.2018 15.11.2018

Turceni G5 RO Coal 313 11.10.2018 10.11.2018

Turceni G3 RO Coal 330 01.11.2018 30.11.2018

Turceni G7 RO Coal 317 20.10.2018 15.11.2018

Minitia G3 RO Coal 220 19.10.2018 10.11.2018

Brazi 5 RO Gas 98 01.05.2018 31.10.2018

Brazi 6 RO Gas 98 01.05.2018 31.10.2018

Isalnita 7 RO Coal 295 17.09.2018 28.10.2018

Isalnita 8 RO Coal 295 21.10.2018 30.11.2018

Iernut 6 Ro Gas 188 14.08.2018 31.12.2018

Craiova 2 G1 RO Coal 131 23.06.2018 15.11.2018

Borzesti 7 RO Coal 194 01.08.2017 31.10.2018

Bucuresti V 2 RO Gas 113 01.10.2018 31.12.2018

Bucuresti S 5 RO Gas 112 01.10.2018 31.12.2018

Mintia 6 RO Coal 195 01.09.2018 30.11.2018

Petrom Brazi RO Gas -430 17.11.2018 19.11.2018

Maritsa 2 G8 BG Coal 343 17.08.2018 20.11.2018



Planned outages relevant for 26.10.2018

TPPs Type MW From To

Brazi 5 RO Gas 98 01.05.2018 31.10.2018

Brazi 6 RO Gas 98 01.05.2018 31.10.2018

TENT A G2 SER Coal 210 12.09.2018 31.10.2018

Turceni G7 RO Coal 317 20.10.2018 15.11.2018

Mintia G3 RO Coal 220 19.10.2018 10.11.2018




Kozloduy G10 BG Nuclear 1000 15.09.2018 22.10.2018



Isalnita 7 RO Coal 295 17.09.2018 28.10.2018

Iernut 6

Mintia 6

Borzesti 7

Brazi 5

Brazi 6

Maritsa 2 G8


5


Temperature forecast

0

5

10

15

20

25

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A. 27-10 28-10

HU+exYU+AL

max avg min

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A. 27-10 28-10

RO - Bucharest

max avg min

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A. 27-10 28-10

BG - Sofia

max avg min

10

15

20

25

30

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A. 27-10 28-10

GR - Athens

max avg min

Regional consumption weighted average temperature

MAX AVG MIN LT max LT avg LT min

19-10 21.7 14.9 10.1 17.5 12.6 8.2

20-10 19.8 14 9 17.5 12.6 8.2

21-10 15.9 11.8 8.3 17.5 12.6 8.2

22-10 15 10 6 17.5 12.6 8.2

23-10 15.4 11.1 7.4 17.5 12.6 8.2

24-10 16.7 11.2 7 17.5 12.6 8.2

25-10 14.5 9.3 4.6 17.5 12.6 8.2

D.A. 17.3 12.1 6.5 17.5 12.6 8.2

27-10 20 15.4 11.5 17.5 12.6 8.2

28-10 20.7 16.8 13.5 17.5 12.6 8.2

HU+exYU+AL


19-10 22 15.9 10 18 11.9 6.5

20-10 19 15.5 13 18 11.9 6.5

21-10 16 12.8 10 18 11.9 6.5

22-10 14 10.7 8 18 11.9 6.5

23-10 19 12.2 6 18 11.9 6.5

24-10 18 12.8 8 18 11.9 6.5

25-10 13 8.7 5 18 11.9 6.5

D.A. 19 12 8 18 11.9 6.5

27-10 23 13.8 7 18 11.9 6.5

28-10 24 16 9 18 11.9 6.5

Romania


19-10 22 14.2 7 17.1 11.3 7.1

20-10 18 12.8 8 17.1 11.3 7.1

21-10 16 11.8 8 17.1 11.3 7.1

22-10 11 8.3 5 17.1 11.3 7.1

23-10 16 10.5 6 17.1 11.3 7.1

24-10 16 10.1 4 17.1 11.3 7.1

25-10 10 6.3 1 17.1 11.3 7.1

D.A. 19 10.4 4 17.1 11.3 7.1

27-10 22 13.2 6 17.1 11.3 7.1

28-10 23 14.4 7 17.1 11.3 7.1

Bulgaria


19-10 24 19.2 15 24.1 19 16

20-10 24 19.5 16 24.1 19 16

21-10 21 18.5 16 24.1 19 16

22-10 19 16.5 15 24.1 19 16

23-10 19 17.8 17 24.1 19 16

24-10 21 18.5 16 24.1 19 16

25-10 17 15.5 12 24.1 19 16

D.A. 21 15.9 11 24.1 19 16

27-10 23 18.7 15 24.1 19 16

28-10 23 19.7 18 24.1 19 16

Greece


6


Temperature deviation forecast

Deviation against long term monthly average

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A. 27-10 28-10

HU+exYU+AL

max avg

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A. 27-10 28-10

RO - Bucharest

max avg

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A. 27-10 28-10

BG - Sofia

max avg

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A. 27-10 28-10

GR - Athens

avg min

MAX AVG

19-10 4.2 2.3

20-10 2.3 1.4

21-10 -1.6 -0.8

22-10 -2.5 -2.6

23-10 -2.1 -1.5

24-10 -0.8 -1.4

25-10 -3.0 -3.3

D.A. -0.2 -0.5

27-10 2.5 2.8

28-10 3.2 4.2

HU+exYU+AL

MAX AVG

19-10 4.0 4.0

20-10 1.0 3.6

21-10 -2.0 0.9

22-10 -4.0 -1.2

23-10 1.0 0.3

24-10 0.0 0.9

25-10 -5.0 -3.2

D.A. 1.0 0.1

27-10 5.0 1.9

28-10 6.0 4.1

Romania

MAX AVG

19-10 4.9 2.9

20-10 0.9 1.5

21-10 -1.1 0.5

22-10 -6.1 -3.0

23-10 -1.1 -0.8

24-10 -1.1 -1.2

25-10 -7.1 -5.0

D.A. 1.9 -0.9

27-10 4.9 1.9

28-10 5.9 3.1

Bulgaria

MAX AVG

19-10 -0.1 0.2

20-10 -0.1 0.5

21-10 -3.1 -0.5

22-10 -5.1 -2.5

23-10 -5.1 -1.2

24-10 -3.1 -0.5

25-10 -7.1 -3.5

D.A. -3.1 -3.1

27-10 -1.1 -0.3

28-10 -1.1 0.7

Greece


7


Consumption forecast

MW average

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A.

HU+exYU+AL

peak offpeak

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A.

Romania

peak offpeak

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A.

Bulgaria

peak offpeak

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A.

Greece

peak offpeak

MW Peak Offpeak

19-10 17,285 14,658

20-10 16,443 13,966

21-10 16,102 13,443

22-10 17,018 14,041

23-10 16,624 14,279

24-10 18,127 14,957

25-10 17,940 15,211

D.A. 17,728 14,893

HU+exYU+AL

MW Peak Offpeak

19-10 7,403 6,455

20-10 6,927 6,175

21-10 6,308 5,787

22-10 7,459 6,239

23-10 7,517 6,579

24-10 7,762 6,592

25-10 7,724 6,574

D.A. 7,441 6,391

Romania

MW Peak Offpeak

19-10 4,433 3,735

20-10 4,088 3,539

21-10 4,186 3,671

22-10 4,641 3,935

23-10 4,707 3,952

24-10 4,599 3,939

25-10 4,937 4,042

D.A. 4,508 3,845

Bulgaria

MW Peak Offpeak

19-10 5,785 4,851

20-10 5,616 4,694

21-10 5,158 4,447

22-10 5,859 4,772

23-10 5,953 4,892

24-10 5,981 4,917

25-10 5,811 4,884

D.A. 5,835 4,694

Greece


8


Consumption forecast

Consumption changes compared to the day with minimal consumption in last 7 day, MW average

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A.

HU+exYU+AL

peak offpeak

0

500

1000

1500

2000

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A.

Romania

peak offpeak

0

200

400

600

800

1000

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A.

Bulgaria

peak offpeak

0

200

400

600

800

1000

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A.

Greece

peak offpeak

MW Peak Offpeak

19-10 1,183 1,215

20-10 341 523

21-10 0 0

22-10 916 598

23-10 522 836

24-10 2,025 1,514

25-10 1,838 1,768

D.A. 1,626 1,450

HU+exYU+AL

MW Peak Offpeak

19-10 1,095 668

20-10 619 388

21-10 0 0

22-10 1,151 452

23-10 1,209 792

24-10 1,454 805

25-10 1,416 787

D.A. 1,133 604

Romania

MW Peak Offpeak

19-10 345 196

20-10 0 0

21-10 98 132

22-10 553 396

23-10 619 413

24-10 511 400

25-10 849 503

D.A. 420 306

Bulgaria

MW Peak Offpeak

19-10 627 404

20-10 458 247

21-10 0 0

22-10 701 325

23-10 795 445

24-10 823 470

25-10 653 437

D.A. 677 247

Greece


9


Wind and solar forecast

MW average

RO Solar GR Solar

Peak Offpeak Peak Offpeak Peak Offpeak Peak Offpeak Peak Offpeak Peak Peak

22-10 500 820 10 30 353 381 140 130 470 320 210 380

23-10 190 670 80 120 344 328 10 60 560 330 250 280

24-10 2270 2240 250 240 94 160 440 310 150 240 190 790

25-10 1900 2000 150 140 48 217 380 410 1050 750 270 800

D.A. 390 1290 10 60 285 183 100 250 190 240 240 790

27-10 810 650 10 10 426 348 260 160 160 140 210 680

28-10 850 1180 160 40 467 467 380 310 440 340 270 630

29-10 2390 2570 150 170 473 474 420 410 600 450 210 520

Romania Wind Hungary Wind Croatia Wind Greece WindBulgaria Wind

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A. 27-10 28-10 29-10

RO wind

peak offpeak

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A. 27-10 28-10 29-10

HU-wind

HU offpeak peak

0

100

200

300

400

500

22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A. 27-10 28-10 29-10

HR-wind

peak offpeak

0

100

200

300

400

500

22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A. 27-10 28-10 29-10

BG-wind

peak offpeak

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A. 27-10 28-10 29-10

GR-wind

peak offpeak

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A. 27-10 28-10 29-10

RO solar peak average

0

200

400

600

800

1000

22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A. 27-10 28-10 29-10

GR solar peak average


10


Hydro generation forecasts

Probability for activation of the pump storage generation - %

Precipitation: additional run-of-river capacity activation - % chance

Danube flow: forecast and the long term average - m3/s

Precipitation (mm)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A. 27-10 28-10 29-10

Romania exYU+AL

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A. 27-10 28-10 29-10

Danube m3 flow long term average

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

19-10 20-10 21-10 22-10 23-10 24-10 25-10 D.A. 27-10 28-10 29-10

Precipitation, mm

Maribor, SLO Dubrovnik, HR Nis, SR

Belgrade, SR Bacau, RO Sibiu, RO

Maribor Dubrovnik Nis Beograd Bacau Sibiu

19-10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

20-10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0

21-10 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 2.0

22-10 0.0 2.5 3.0 7.0 0.0 0.0

23-10 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0

24-10 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 0.0 4.0

25-10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

D.A. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

27-10 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

28-10 25.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0

29-10 34.0 32.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0


11


NTC and NTC changes

Day-ahead NTC 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

AT>HU 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800

AT>SI 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950 950

SK>HU 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300

CZ>SK 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000

RO>HU 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550

UA>HU 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455 455

SI>IT 673 673 673 673 673 673 620 730 730 661 661 661 733 733 733 795 795 760 737 720 720 720 720 634

IT>SI 680 680 680 680 680 680 680 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 680

SI>HR 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300

HR>SI 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300 1300

RO>SR 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400

BG>SR 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350

SR>HU 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700

HU>SR 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500

RS>HR 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550

HR>RS 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600

BH>SR 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600

BH>HR 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800

SR>MK 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600

MK>GR 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350

BG>MK 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250

BG>GR 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 450

GR>ITA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ITA>GR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

26-Oct-18

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

AT>HU 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

AT>SI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

SK>HU 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

CZ>SK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

RO>HU 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

UA>HU 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

SI>IT 0 0 0 0 0 0 -50 -52 -52 -44 -44 -44 -8 -8 -8 95 95 60 -58 -75 -75 -75 -75 -49

IT>SI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

SI>HR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

HR>SI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

RO>SR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

BG>SR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

SR>HU 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

HU>SR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

RS>HR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

HR>RS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

BH>SR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

BH>HR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

SR>MK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

MK>GR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

BG>MK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

BG>GR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

GR>ITA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ITA>GR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NTC change comparing to previous day


12


*Data download available on Power Portal: www.portal.balkanenergy.com

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

29-10 30-10 31-10 01-11 02-11 03-11 04-11

Base Peak

Week 44 at average October temperatures Price Base Peak

29-10 64.0 74.4

30-10 64.0 74.4

31-10 63.5 72.5

01-11 62.8 71.5

02-11 62.8 71.5

03-11 50.2

04-11 48.5

Week 44 59.4 72.8


Base: 59.4 EUR/MWh

Peak: 72.8 EUR/MWh

Comment:

Assumed Italian Week 44 at 72.13 EUR/MWh and assumed German Week 44 at 50.38 EUR/MWh

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN

HU+exYU+AL (weekly max temperatures)

WK43 WK44

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25


RO - Bucharest (weekly max temperatures)

WK43 WK44

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25


BG - Sofia (weekly max temperatures)

WK43 WK44

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25


GR - Athens (weekly max temperatures)

WK43 WK44

Temperature forecast

Regional consumption weighted average temperature

HUPX Forecast for Week 44Update at 25.10.2018 - 08:30 CET

http://www.portal.balkanenergy.com


13


NTC forecast and changes

WK44 MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN

29-10 30-10 31-10 1-11 2-11 3-11 4-11

AT>SI 800 800 550 0 0 0 0

AT>HU 300 300 300 0 0 0 0

CZ>SK 1700 1700 1700 0 0 0 0

SK>HU 1300 1300 1300 0 0 0 0

UA>HU 455 455 455 0 0 0 0

RO>RS 250 250 250 0 0 0 0

RO>HU 450 450 450 0 0 0 0

RO>BG 250 250 250 0 0 0 0

HU>RS 700 700 700 0 0 0 0

RS>HU 800 800 800 0 0 0 0

BG>RS 350 350 350 0 0 0 0

BG>MK 250 250 250 0 0 0 0

BA>RS 600 600 600 0 0 0 0

BA>HR 800 800 800 0 0 0 0

SR>AL 250 250 250 0 0 0 0

ME>AL 450 450 450 0 0 0 0

RS>ME 600 600 600 0 0 0 0

RS>HR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

RS>SR 600 600 600 0 0 0 0

AL>GR 250 250 250 0 0 0 0

MK>GR 350 350 350 0 0 0 0

BG>GR 450 450 450 0 0 0 0

WK44 - MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN

WK43 29-10 30-10 31-10 1-11 2-11 3-11 4-11

AT>SI 0 0 -250 -800 -800 -800 -800

AT>HU 0 0 0 -300 -300 -300 -300

CZ>SK 0 0 0 -1700 -1700 -1700 -1700

SK>HU 0 0 0 -1300 -1300 -1300 -1300

UA>HU 0 0 0 -455 -455 -455 -455

RO>RS -200 -200 -150 -400 -400 -500 -500

RO>HU -100 -100 -50 -550 -550 -650 -650

RO>BG 0 0 0 -250 -250 -250 -250

HU>RS 0 0 0 -700 -700 -700 -700

RS>HU 0 0 0 -800 -800 -800 -800

BG>RS 0 0 0 -350 -350 -350 -350

BG>MK 0 0 0 -250 -250 -250 -250

BA>RS 0 0 0 -600 -600 -600 -600

BA>HR 0 0 0 -800 -800 -800 -800

SR>AL 0 0 0 -250 -250 -250 -250

ME>AL 0 0 0 -450 -450 -450 -450

RS>ME 0 0 0 -600 -600 -600 -600

RS>HR -550 -550 -550 -550 -550 -550 -550

RS>SR 0 0 0 -600 -600 -600 -600

AL>GR 0 0 0 -250 -250 -250 -250

MK>GR 0 0 0 -350 -350 -350 -350

BG>GR 0 0 0 -450 -450 -450 -450

NTC change comparing to previous week

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