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Data Issues for Latin America
Dr. Hugo G. Hidalgo
School of Physics
University of Costa Rica
GEOSS Support for the IPCC Assessments
February 2011
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 2
Acknowledgements
Thank you to GEOSS for financial support for this visit. The author is partially supported by projects VI-805-A9-22, VI-805-A9-532 and VI-808-A9-180 of the University of Costa Rica.Thank you to the School of Physics for the support to this visit.Thank you to FUNDEVI/UCR for partial additional support
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 3
Data issues for Latin America
Sources (surface observations, upper air, remote sensing) Temporal and spatial coverage (missing data) Quality control (outliers, temporal and spatial inconsistencies) Costs of data (data are in many cases not free) Availability (restricted use, release agreements) Format (including digitalization and file format, temporal and
spatial resolution) Reliability (changes in station location or conditions, changes
in equipment or observer, history of calibration and maintenance of instruments)
Adequacy for specific uses (related to all of the above)
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 4
Other issues for Latin America
Complex topography Large variety of climates and microclimates Rich biodiversity Developing economies Vulnerable societies
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 5
Specific uses
Restrospective (hydro) climatic variability analysis Extreme events analysis (considering different time scales
of floods and droughts) Detection and Attribution of climate change Climate change impacts assessments on human and
environmental systems (agriculture, hydropower generation, ecology, social-economic, wildfire potential, public health, water quality and others)
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 6
Hydrologic simulations are needed
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 7
Streamflow data for calibration 1969 to 1979 (GRDC)
Monthly streamflowgages
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 8
LA impacts AR4
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 9
Historical trends in rainfall
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 10
Spatial and temporal coverage
CIGEFI's Networkof daily precipitationstations
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 11
Spatial and temporal coverage
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 12
Precip significant correlation distance (degrees)
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 13
The problem of missing necessary data
Following the International Hydrological Decade (IHD, 1965-1974) the number of stations in the region increased dramatically.
Since the 1990s many monitoring programs have been dismantled.
Satellite data cannot replace surface observations (maybe in the future)
The current network does not cover large parts of the region (which have large spatial variations due to the richness of microclimates)
It has not been proven that the 140 stations available in Central America during the 1980s are enough to represent climate variability adequately.
Saving money by closing stations is foolish, the costs will be reflected in other items such as over-dimensioned dams and bridges or the collapse of dams and bridges.
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 14
AVAILABILITY OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
http://www.atmosfera.cl/HTML/antiguo/TEMAS/INSTRUMENTACION/FIG1b.htm
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National Climatic Data Center: Global Historical Climatology
Network (GHCN)
Core elements: Daily precipitation, snowfall, snowdepth, tmax and tmin data. Quality controlled.
Temp Precip
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 16
Integrated Surface Database: Summary of the Day
Many parameters: including daily precipitation,tmax and tmin data. Quality controlled.
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 17
Examples of Ground-based Gridded Datasets
Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset: The base meteorological data consist of daily time-series for the period of 1950 through 1999 of precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and wind speed. Data from a variety of sources were compiled and gridded to a resolution of 1/2-degree over all global land areas. Maurer, E.P., J.C. Adam, and A.W. Wood, 2009, Climate model based consensus on the hydrologic impacts of climate change to the Rio Lempa basin of Central America, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 13, 183-194.
Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset for land surface modeling: A global 50-yr (1948-2000) dataset of meteorological forcings derived by combining reanalysis with observations. Available at 1.0-degree spatial resolution and 3-hourly, daily and monthly temporal resolution. Sheffield, J., G. Goteti, and E. F. Wood, 2006: Development of a 50-yr high-resolution global dataset of meteorological forcings for land surface modeling, J. Climate, 19 (13), 3088-3111
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 18
Examples of Satellite + Ground-based Gridded Datasets
CRN073: Daily and monthly precip dataset covering mesoamerica, 0.5 x 0.5 degrees, 1958-2000. Magana et al. 2003
CMAP: Global precip, Monthly 2.5 x 2.5 degrees, 1979-2009. Xie, P. and P. A. Arkin, 1996: Analyses of Global Monthly Precipitation Using Gauge Observations, Satellite Estimates, and Numerical Model Predictions. J. Climate, 9, 840 -858. Xie, P. and P. A. Arkin, 1997: Global Precipitation: A 17-Year Monthly Analysis Based on Gauge Observations, Satellite Estimates and Numerical Model Outputs. BAMS, 78, 2539-2558.
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Webber and Willmott:precip and temp
From GHCN Gridded 0.5 x 0.5 degrees Monthly 1960-1990 No tmax, tmin Extremes:
Drought extremes: ok,
short term events like floods: not ok
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 20
Latin America data needs
We need to estimate climate variability and work on covering all the subregions using monitoring stations.
We need to develop more the use of satellite data to become less dependent of the surface data, especially in hard to reach areas.
Politicians and decision-makers must provide funding to improve monitoring networks.
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 21
Improving data issues
Create regional databases from global data with homogeneous quality control
Reformat data and create archives in standard format for the region Need to make inventories of data that are not free or not available in the
internet Need to establish collaborations with researchers from several countries
to use restricted data in regional studies More validation of satellite data is needed More integrated regional analysis of the impacts of climate change are
needed Make available free data products (e.g. regional interpolated datasets) Improving modeling and monitoring networks is key More land surface and hydrologic data are needed
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 22
Thank you!
Hugo G. Hidalgo Universidad de Costa Rica 23
Need for reducing uncertainties
“By the 2020s, the net increase in the number of people experiencing water stress due to climate change is likely to be between 7 and 77 million (medium confidence). While, for the second half of the century, the potential water availability reduction and the increasing demand from an increasing regional population would increase these figures to between 60 and 150 million. [13.4.3]”
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp