Data Session U.S.: T-100 and O&D Survey DataClass. 9. T-100 Data. Example: United Airlines @ DCA....

Data Session U.S.: T-100 and

O&D Survey Data

Presented by: Tom Reich

1

What are Doing Here? Learn how to use T100 & O&D (DB1A/DB1B) to: Enhance your air service presentations

Identify opportunities for new air service

Understand what the changes and trends in T-100 & O&D actually mean

Become more fluent in airlinese

Sound Really Smart!

2

Where Did This Data Come From? Prior to 1978 all airfares were set by the Civil Aeronautics Board

(CAB) and airlines could not add flights or enter new markets without CAB approval

The CAB needed airlines to report O&D and T-100 data to: Ensure airlines were charging the correct fares Monitor market performance in response to new entrant requests Ensure a completely transparent market place for all players

After de-regulation airlines were still required to report the data

These databases represent the most detailed airline traffic reporting in the world

3

T-100 Overview

4

T-100 Data Aliases Include:

Form 41 Traffic Data Form 41 Schedule T-100 Data Airline Market & Segment Data Onboard and/or Onflight Data

Must be reported by all carriers that operate flights to, from, or within the United States Major & National Airlines Regional Airlines (required as of October 2002) Foreign Flag Airlines (required as of July 1990) Cargo Airlines Charter Airlines

5

T-100 Data Reporting Periods

All Data is Reported on a Monthly Basis There is No “Official” Breakdown of T-100 by Week, or Day of Week Domestic T-100 is Reported on a “Three Month Lag” International T-100 is Reported on a “Six Month Lag”

Passenger & Cargo Data is Reported Passenger Seating & Total Cargo Capacity is Reported Onboard/Onflight Passengers & Cargo Tons are Reported

All Data is Reported by Operating Carrier You Need to Figure Out Who is Flying for Who

6

T-100 Data Limitations

Related to Single-Plane Flights ONLY Does Not Include Revenue Data Regional Airline History is Spotty prior to October 2002

T-100 is NOT INTENDED to be an O&D Source

7

T-100 DataExists in Four Major Formats

Domestic Segment:Represents all passengers and/or cargo onboard domestic nonstop flights for each specific city pair. (Example: UA ORD-DCA)

Domestic Market:Represents all passengers and/or cargo onboard domestic same-plane one-stop flights for each specific city pair. (Example: WN DCA-AUS-SAN)

International Segment:Same format as domestic, but only for international flights

International Market:Same format as domestic, but only for international flights

8

T-100 Data Relevant Data Fields

Departures Scheduled Departures Performed Available Cargo Payload (pounds) Available Seats SEGMENT Onboard Passengers SEGMENT Onboard Freight (pounds) SEGMENT Onboard Mail (pounds) MARKET Onflight Passengers MARKET Onflight Freight (pounds) MARKET Onflight Mail (pounds) Flight Distance Operating Carrier

Origin Airport Destination Airport Aircraft Type Year Quarter Month Class

9

T-100 DataExample: United Airlines @ DCA

CLEEWR

IAH

DCAORD

DENSFO

10

T-100 DataT-100 Based Statistics You Can Calculate

Enplanements & Deplanements Number of actual flight operations Completion Factor Load Factor Revenue Passenger Miles Available Seats & Seat Miles Thru Passenger Ratios

11

T-100 DataCommon Questions T-100 Data Will Answer (Provided

the event happened after October, 2002) When did a carrier start/end nonstop service in a market? When did service levels increase/decrease? When were aircraft types changed in a market? How do your airport’s load factors compare to other airports?

12

Where Do You Get T-100 Data?

13

Ways to Use T-100

14

DL45%

WN18%

UA14%

AA23%

Onboard Passenger Market Share

DL42%

WN20%

UA14%

AA24%

Seat Capacity Share

Capacity Share by Marketing Carrier

Source: U.S.DOT T-100 Onboard Passenger Data (YE Sep-2017)15

DL16%

OO17%

9E12%WN

18%UA6%

OO5%

YV3%

AA13%

MQ6%

OH4%

Onboard Passenger Market Share

DL15%

OO15%

9E11%

WN20%UA

6%

OO5%

YV4%

AA13%

MQ6%

OH5%

Seat Capacity Share

Capacity Share by Operating Carrier


DL42%

WN20%

UA14%

AA24%

Seat Capacity Share (YE Sep-2017)

Capacity Share Time Comparison

DL23%

NW16%

WN18%

FL12%

UA14%

CO7%

AA6%

US4%

Seat Capacity Share (YE Sep-2007)

Legacy Carriers Vs. LCCsLegacy Carriers

80%

LCCs20%

Legacy Carriers70%

LCCs30%

Source: U.S.DOT T-100 Onboard Passenger Data17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

HVN YNG DAB AVP SWF ABE HPN BGM ISP TTN

95% 93% 92% 91% 89% 87%

74%69% 65% 63%

Load Factor(YE Sep 2017)

Load Factor ComparisonAwesome Airways – IAD Hub Markets

Types of Comparisons: Similar Hub Markets Multiple Routes from Your Airport Different Carriers at Your Airport Competing Airports Etc…


Load Factor(YE Sep 2017)

Load Factor ComparisonLoad Factor by Airline – Airport XYZ

AllegiantUnited Delta American SouthwestAverage

95%91%88%86%82%89%

Carrier

Types of Comparisons: Similar Hub Markets Multiple Routes from Your Airport Different Carriers at Your Airport Competing Airports Etc…


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17

88%83%

78% 76% 74% 78% 81%88% 90% 92% 91%

84%

Load Factor

Load Factor Time SeriesAwesome Airways

IAD-HVN Load Factor by Month


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17

46,912

33,66129,843 28,562 30,101

37,987

50,66857,590

64,442 65,378 63,878

51,644

Onboard Passengers

Passenger Time SeriesAwesome Airways

IAD-HVN Total Onboard Passengers by Month


ABC

PHXLAX

SFO

LAS

Year Ended Sep-2014 Year Ended Sep-2017

Airport (ABC) Needs More West Coast Service

ABC

PHXLAX

SFO

LAS

74%

72%

77%

78%88%

87%

91%

93%


ORD

DTW

ATL

TMR

Connections Between Two Airports Are Full

LAS

95%

91%

93%


Using T-100 with Other Data

24

Narrowbody57%Large RJ

19%

Small RJ13%

Large Turboprop

8%

Small Turboprop

2%Widebody

1%

Available Flights Share (Jun-18)(From Current Published Airline Schedules)

Narrowbody70%

Large RJ14%

Small RJ6%

Large Turboprop

6%

Widebody3% Small

Turboprop1%

Seat Capacity Share (Jun-17)(From T-100)

Capacity Share by Equipment Type

Source: U.S.DOT T-100 Onboard Passenger Data (YE Sep-2017) & Published Airline Schedules Jun-2018)25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Sep-

15

Oct-1

5

Nov-

15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar-1

6

Apr-1

6

May-

16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct-1

6

Nov-

16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar-1

7

Apr-1

7

May-

17

Jun-

17

Jul-1

7

Aug-

17

Sep-

17

Oct-1

7

Nov-

17

Dec-

17

Jan-

18

Feb-

18

144 143 141 138 134 130 132 133 134 136 138 139133 131 130 129 126 124 122 119 120 122 123 125 128 129 131 132 133 132

Average Aircraft Seat Capacity

Average Aircraft Size


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

3 4 5 5 5 41

11 2 2

2

2 33

2

DENORDEWRIAD

Daily Departures

4 56

910

11

Airline Air Service Growth


-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

LAX DEN IAD MCO LAS ORD FLL DFW MSP DTW DCA CLT JFK EWR IAH LGA PHL ATL BWI

100%

34% 32%21% 18% 17% 13% 11% 9% 6% 5% 4% 2% 1%

-7% -7% -11% -16%

-47%

Jun-2018 Vs. Jun-2017

Year Over Year Changes in Seat Capacity


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Apr-1

6Ma

y-16

Jun-

16Ju

l-16

Aug-

16Se

p-16

Oct-1

6No

v-16

Dec-

16Ja

n-17

Feb-

17Ma

r-17

Apr-1

7Ma

y-17

Jun-

17Ju

l-17

Aug-

17Se

p-17

Oct-1

7No

v-17

Dec-

17Ja

n-18

Feb-

18Ma

r-18

Apr-1

8Ma

y-18

Jun-

18Ju

l-18

IADDCABWI

Annual Onboard Seats to WAS

Capacity Time Series Comparisons


Connecting Flow

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000Oc

t-15

Nov-

15De

c-15

Jan-

16Fe

b-16

Mar-1

6Ap

r-16

May-

16Ju

n-16

Jul-1

6Au

g-16

Sep-

16Oc

t-16

Nov-

16De

c-16

Jan-

17Fe

b-17

Mar-1

7Ap

r-17

May-

17Ju

n-17

Jul-1

7Au

g-17

Sep-

17

IAD-Total SeatsIAD-Onboard PaxIAD-Connecting Flow Pax

ABC-IADOnboard Passengers


Ways to Combine T-100 with Other DataCensus Data

Seats or Flights per Capita

OAG Schedule Data Use T-100 for historical data and airline schedule data for

current months to create a seamless historical time series

O&D Data Connecting flow of onboard passengers Load factors by connecting hub Adjustment to solve for total international O&D traffic

(Total T-100 Onboard – Total Domestic O&D = Total International O&D)

31

O&D Overview

32

O&D DataQuantifies passengers and fares paid from origin to

destination. Data detail includes: Marketing carrier of each flight segment Total fare paid Stops at intermediate airports Passenger’s point of origin

10% Sample All passenger tickets with a coupon number ending in 0 are recorded Raw data is multiplied by 10 to represent the total market (This is why O&D data figures are always a multiple of 10)

33

O&D DataAliases Include:

Origin & Destination Data DB1B Data DB1A Data Passenger Traffic Data SABRE Data (not actually O&D at all)

Must be reported by all domestic marketing carriers that operate flights to, from or within the United States DB1A (1940s through 1998) DB1B (1998 – Present)

34

O&D DataO&D Based Statistics You Can Calculate

Total O&D Passengers Total O&D Revenue Average Fares Nonstop Yield (Revenue per mile for nonstop distance between Origin & Destination)

Itinerary Yield (Revenue per mile for itinerary distance between Origin & Destination)

Average Passenger Trip Length Point of Sale Ratios Local Vs. Connect Ratios

O&D Based Statistics You Can Calculate with T-100 RASM (Revenue per Available Seat Mile)

35

Where Do You Get O&D Data?

36

Issues With O&D Data Reporting Periods

All Data is Reported on a Quarterly Basis There is No “Official” Breakdown of O&D by Month, Week, or Day of Week

Difficult to accurately identify seasonality in passenger demand and fare levels

O&D Is Reported on a Three to Six Month Lag

All Data is Reported by Marketing Carrier Codeshares make it difficult to figure out whose plane the passenger actually flew on Many data providers have come up with ways to solve for this

Errors in Reporting Certain regional carriers O&D traffic is incorrectly reported Some airlines report late, incorrectly or both causing delays in the data

37

Issues With O&D DataSmall Market Accuracy

Statistically small sample sizes Markets with less than 10 PDEW might not be recorded at all

Point of Origin O&D tells you the airport the passenger used, not the airport the

passenger lives closest too

Mental Blocks Each round trip passenger is counted twice An airport’s O&D traffic is two times its enplanements Think of O&D as “Departing from – Arriving at” data

38

Ways to Cut the O&D Data

39

Local O&D Passenger TrafficNonstop – Airport to Airport

Airports: Washington Reagan (DCA) and Chicago (ORD) only

Connecting Hub Traffic: None - Only nonstop passengers

ORD DCA

40

Local O&D Passenger TrafficNonstop – Airport to City (Multi-airport)

Airports: Washington (DCA) and Chicago (MDW & ORD) only

Connecting Hub Traffic: None - Only nonstop passengers

ORD

MDWORD DCA

41

ORD DCA

Connecting O&D Passenger TrafficVia Hub – Airport to Airport

Airports: Washington Reagan (DCA) and Chicago (ORD) only

Connecting Hub Traffic: Yes – ATL, CLT, DTW, RDU, PHL, etc

DTW PHL

CLTATL

RDU

42

Common Connecting Hubs

43

Online Connecting O&D Passenger TrafficVia Hub – Airport to Beyond

Airports: Washington Regan (DCA) and anywhere beyond Chicago (ORD)

Connecting Hub Traffic: Yes – Only Via ORD

ATW

OKCTUS

ICT

FSD

Online Single ConnectionsORD DCA

44

Online Connecting O&D Passenger TrafficVia Non-Hub – Airport to Airport

Airports: Chicago (ORD) and Washington Reagan (DCA) via CMH only

Connecting Non-Hub Traffic: Yes – Only via CMH

CMH

Online Single ConnectionORD DCA

45

Online Connecting O&D Passenger TrafficVia Multiple Hubs – Airport to Beyond

Airports: White Plains (HPN) and anywhere beyond Washington Reagan (DCA) & Chicago (ORD)

Connecting Hub Traffic: Yes – Only Via DCA & ORD

ATW

OKCTUS

ICT

FSD

Online Double ConnectionsORD DCA

HPN

46

O&D Traffic Analysis

47

An Airport’s Largest O&D Markets?Top 15 ABC O&D Markets (YE 2Q 2011)

YE 2Q 2017O&D Passengers

Houston (HOU & IAH)Dallas/Ft. Worth (DAL & DFW)Las Vegas (LAS)Austin (AUS)San Antonio (SAT)Chicago (MDW & ORD)Minneapolis (MSP)Orlando (MCO & SFB)LA Basin (BUR, LAX, LGB, ONT, SNA)New York (EWR, HPN, ISP, JFK, LGA, SWF)Washington/Baltimore (BWI, DCA, IAD)South Florida (FLL, MIA, PBI)Atlanta (ATL)Denver (DEN)Bay Area (OAK, SFO, SJC)

321,640176,010106,64065,63060,09058,85049,83048,80044,09035,92034,32026,74024,97023,09021,030

123456789

101112131415

Rank

YYYYYNYYNNNNYNN

$89$104$122

$69$73

$245$221$114$287$313$298$177$185$286$364

Fare Nonstop

48

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450441

241

146

90 82 81 68 67 60 49 47 37 34 32 29

O&D PDEW(YE 2Q 2017)

Source: U.S.DOT O&D Passenger Survey Data (YE Jun-2017)

An Airport’s Largest O&D Markets?

49

Carrier O&D Market Share

UA21%

WN20%

AA14%

DL11%

B611%

AS9%

NK5%

F94%

Others5%

Total O&D Passengers – YE 2Q 2017(3,084,327 O&D Passengers)

Source: U.S.DOT O&D Passenger Survey Data (YE Jun-2017)50

O&D Time Series

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

12-Month Moving Total

O&D PassengersABC - XXY

PeakYE 3Q 2014

26,290Current O&DYE 2Q 2017

24,970Jumpstart 2017YE 2Q 2010

19,530

Airline Cancels Nonstop Flight


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

YE 2Q 2014 YE 2Q 2015 YE 2Q 2016 YE 2Q 2017

29,840

17,270

33,190

27,840

4,900 4,870 4,430 4,310

7,900 7,3205,410 5,440

FLL MIA PBI

O&D PassengersABC – South Florida

O&D Time SeriesBy Composite City


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

WN B6 AA DL NK UA

17,910

14,100

4,170

710 590 110

O&D PassengersABC – South Florida

(YE 2Q 2017)

O&D Market ComparisonsBy Carrier


-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

WN B6 NK UA AA DL

940750

590

-440

-1,860 -2,000

O&D Pax GrowthABC – South Florida

(YE 2Q 17 vs YE 2Q 16)

O&D Market Comparisons


By Carrier

54

O&D Demand Nonstop Vs. One-Stop

UA48%

WN37%

B611%

DL2%

AA2%

F90%

UA – Single Coupon 48%

Multiple Coupon 52%


O&D Connecting Hub Traffic

DAL

STLConnecting

O&D PassengersALB 770BDL 1,110BWI 4,760CLE 1,650CMH 1,010DTW 650EWR 2,310IAD 1,130ISP 970LGA 4,660PHL 3,960PIT 1,710PVD 1,200Others 4,710Total 30,600

85,770Local O&D


O&D Revenue Analysis

57

Changes to XYZ O&D Market Since Last Meeting

Domestic O&D Passengers

Average Fare

Domestic O&D Passenger Revenue

Average Itinerary Yield

Average Nonstop Yield

Average Trip Length

756,900

$157.11

$119.2M

21.8¢

23.2¢

678 Miles

YE 2Q 2017

+7.9%

+26.3%

+36.3%

+28.2%

+26.7%

Change Since YE 2Q 2016XYZ Only U.S. Average

+2%

+11%

+13%


Changes to XYZ O&D Market Since Last MeetingAverage Fare

12-Month Moving Average


$55$60$65$70$75$80$85$90$95

$100$105$110$115 $111

$107 $104 $103$98

$93

$87$81

$78 $78 $79$82

$91$95 $96

YE 2Q 2017 Vs. YE 2Q 2016• XYZ Domestic Fares Increased 14%• Average U.S. Domestic Fares Increased 2%

59

O&D Market Changes Compared to Peer Airports

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%23.9%

14.0%

-9.3%

YE 2Q 2017 Vs. YE 2Q 2016 Change in

Domestic O&D

ABC DEF

XYZ

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%29.5%

14.6% 13.7%

DEF ABC XYZ

YE 2Q 2011 Vs. YE 2Q 2010Change in Average Domestic O&D Fare


Fare Breakdown Comparison

FFRewards

$50-$99 $100-$149 $150-$199 $200-$249 $250-$299 $300-$349 $350-$399 $400-$449 $450-$499 $500+0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

9%

0%

15%

41%

12%

7%4% 3% 3% 4%

1%4% 4%

12%

42%

8% 7%4%

12%

3% 1% 2%

ABC DEF

% of Total Chicago O&D

Market

(YE-2Q-2017)

(Outbound Only)

ABC = 12,540 Outbound O&D Passengers DEF = 13,090 Outbound O&D Passengers


Other Ways to Combine O&D with Other DataCensus Data

O&D Passengers per Capita

OAG Schedule Data Determine top markets/airports without nonstop service Compare available seat capacity with O&D passenger demand to determine

if the market is underserved Determine potential connecting markets for proposed new hub service

MIDT – Leakage Data O&D serves as the basis to adjust raw MIDT data

62

International Issues

63

International DOT DataForeign Carriers are Allowed to view:

T-100 (Domestic & International) Domestic O&D NOT ALLOWED TO SEE INTERNATIONAL O&D

Foreign Carriers US Flights Must report T-100 data for flights Are not required to report O&D for flights

International O&D Does not contain foreign carrier data

64

Access to International O&D Data is Restricted

Access to International O&D: Restricted to U.S. Citizens & U.S. Carriers Approval Needed from DOT-BTS to gain access to International O&D

databases

What can be shared with International carriers? Trends derived from International O&D ACTUAL DATA MUST BE MASKED

65

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

YYZ YUL YYC YUL YHZ YOW

25,980 24,760 24,010 23,30021,610 21,420

O&D Passengers(YE 2Q 2017)

Examples of International O&D Masking

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

YYZ YUL YYC YUL YHZ YOW

100% 95% 92% 90%83% 82%

O&D Passengers(YE 2Q 2017)

Indexed


Conclusions

67

Conclusions Air service development proposals are the equivalent of your

airport’s day in court Some of the evidence you have to prove your case is hidden

inside: T-100 Data O&D Data Demographic Data Leakage Data

Know what point you are trying to make Use T-100 & O&D data as the facts that back up your point

68

Tom ReichAir Service Program Manager

Metropolitan Washington Airports [email protected]

703.572.5581

69

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