David A. Longanecker President, WICHE College Door ...wiche.edu/PPT/031908_HSG_launch.pdfKnocking at...

Knocking at the College Door

Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity

with support from

Presented by:David A. LonganeckerPresident, WICHE

National Press ClubWashington, D.C.March 19, 2008

Knocking at the College Door - 2008

Background on Knocking

7th Edition of WICHE’s projectionsProjections of high school graduates by state and race/ethnicityOnly publication to include nonpublic school graduates in projectionsActual data from 1991-92 to 2004-05 and projections out to 2021-22


Caveat Emptor

Assumes existing patterns continue indefinitelyPolicy changes not explicitly modeled

NCLB and other accountability measuresNew state policy objectivesVariations in funding levels that affect progression


Two Central Themes

Changes in total production

Escalating diversification


First Central Theme: Total Production

Overall production of high school graduates/demand for postsecondary education

National peak in 2007-08 concludes period of rapid expansionSubsequent moderate decline

The change in production among regions and states varies greatly

Knocking at the College Door -

2008

U.S. Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates, 1996-97 to2004-05 (Estimated), 2005-06 to 2021-22 (Projected)

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.5

Mill

ions


2008

South

West

Midwest

Northeast

Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates by Region, 1996-97 to 2004-05 (Estimated), 2005-06 to 2021-22 (Projected)

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

Mill

ions


2008

2009-10(5-yr Chg.)

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000 West Midwest Northeast South

Contribution to the Nation’s Change in Total High SchoolGraduates Relative to 2004-05, by Region

2014-15(10-yr Chg.)

2019-20(15-yr Chg.)

Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15

in Total High School Graduates, by State



ME

CT

MD

SC

KY

TN

MS

OK

MO

IL

IA

NM

CA

OR

WA

AK

HI

-4.99% to 5%



ME

CT

MD

SC

KY

TN

MS

OK

MO

IL

IA

NM

CA

OR

WA

AK

HI

-5% to -9.99%-4.99% to 5%

WI

MN

NE

MI

OH

WV

PA

NY

MA

RI



ME

CT

MD

SC

KY

TN

MS

OK

MO

IL

IA

NM

CA

OR

WA

AK

HI

WI

MN

NE

MI

OH

WV

PA

NY

MA

-10% or less-5% to -9.99%-4.99 to 5%

ND

SD

KS

WY

MT

LA*

NHVT

RI



ME

CT

MD

SC

KY

TN

MS

OK

MO

IL

IA

NM

CA

OR

WA

AK

HI

WI

MN

NE

MI

OH

WV

PA

NY

MA

-10% or less-5% to -9.99%-4.99% to 5%5.01% to 10%

ND

SD

KS

WY

MT

LA*

NHVT

CO

AL

VADE

DC

NJ

RI



ME

CT

MD

SC

KY

TN

MS

OK

MO

IL

IA

NM

CA

OR

WA

AK

HI

WI

MN

NE

MI

OH

WV

PA

NY

MA

-10% or less-5% to -9.99%-4.99% to 5%5.01% to 10%10.01% to 20%

ND

SD

KS

WY

MT

LA*

NHVT

CO

AL

VADE

DC

NJ

ID

IN

AR

NC

RI



ME

CT

MD

SC

KY

TN

MS

OK

MO

IL

IA

NM

CA

OR

WA

AK

HI

WI

MN

NE

MI

OH

WV

PA

NY

MA

-10% or less-5% to -9.99%-4.99% to 5%5.01% to 10%10.01% to 20%Greater than 20%

ND

SD

KS

WY

MT

LA*

NHVT

CO

AL

VADE

DC

NJ

ID

IN

AR

NC

NVUT

AZ

TX

FL

GA

RI


Second Central Theme: Diversification

Escalating diversification – traditionally underrepresented populations are fastest-growing

By 2014-15, non-Whites project to account for 42.1% of public graduates nationally, an increase of 7.5 percentage pointsNon-Whites’ projected share of high school enrollments in 2014-15 = 47.9%

Driven by steep declines in White non-Hispanics and by rapid growth in minority populations, especially Hispanics

Composition of Public High School Graduates in the U.S.by Race/Ethnicity, 2004-05 (Actual); 2009-10 and 2014-15 (Projected)

1%

5%

14%

14%

66%

2004-05

American Indian/Alaska Native

Asian/Pacific Islander

Black non-Hispanic

Hispanic

White non-Hispanic


1%

5%

6% 14%

15%

17%

14%

66%

61%

2004-05

2009-10



Black non-Hispanic

Hispanic

White non-Hispanic


1%

5%

6%

7%

14%

15%

14%

21%17%

14%

66%

61%57%

2004-05

2009-10

2014-15



Black non-Hispanic

Hispanic

White non-Hispanic

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

Cumulative Percent Change in U.S. Public High School GraduatesRelative to 2004-05 by Race/Ethnicity

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

3.1% 2.5%

13.7%

11.8%6.6%

14.9%16.0%

32.0%

62.7%

32.5%

54.3%

89.9%

-1.4%

-10.6%-13.4%

American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-Hispanic Hispanic White non-Hispanic


Countdown to Majority-Minority

RegionsThe West is projected to be majority-minority in 2010The South follows by 2017

StatesAs of the class of 2005: California, D.C., Hawaii, New Mexico, & TexasAdditions by the class of 2015: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Mississippi, & Nevada

Proportion of Minority Public High School GraduatesIn 2014-15 (Projected)


WV

SD

VT

10% or less


WV

SD

VT ME

KY

IL

WI

OH

ND

WY

MT

NH

ID

INUT

IA

10% or less10.01% to 20%


WV

SD

VT ME

KY

IL

WI

OH

ND

WY

MT

NH

ID

INUT

IA

MO

MN

NE

MI

PA

MA

KS

10% or less10.01% to 20%20.01% to 30%


WV

SD

VT ME

KY

IL

WI

OH

ND

WY

MT

NH

ID

INUT

IA

10% or less10.01% to 20%20.01% to 30%30.01% to 40%

MO

MN

NE

MI

PA

MA

KS

CT

TN

OR

WA

AK

NY

LA*

CO

AL

NJ

AR

RI


WV

SD

VT ME

KY

IL

WI

OH

ND

WY

MT

NH

ID

INUT

IA

10% or less10.01% to 20%20.01% to 30%30.01% to 40%40.01% to 50%

MO

MN

NE

MI

PA

MA

KS

CT

TN

OR

WA

AK

NY

LA*

CO

AL

NJ

AR

RI

SCOK

VADE

DC

NC


WV

SD

VT ME

KY

IL

WI

OH

ND

WY

MT

NH

ID

INUT

IA

10% or less10.01% to 20%20.01% to 30%30.01% to 40%40.01% to 50%50.01% or greater

MO

MN

NE

MI

PA

MA

KS

CT

TN

OR

WA

AK

NY

LA*

CO

AL

NJ

AR

RI

SCOK

VADE

DC

NC

MD

MS

NM

CA

HI

NV

AZ

TX

FL

GA


Factors Influencing Shifts

BirthsWhite births minus non-White births = 1.25M in 1990; 514K in 2004The fertility rate (2004) among Hispanic women = 1.67 times the rate among White, non-Hispanic women

Domestic migrationMovement from Midwest and Northeast to West and South

Schooling optionsNonpublic and homeschools have higher proportions of White non-Hispanic students

Immigration7.6M new residents immigrated between 2000 and 2006Most from Latin America, especially Mexico


Challenges Ahead for States, School Districts, and K-12 Schools

How will those facing declining enrollments preserve quality despite reduced enrollment-based funding?How will those facing continued growth provide capacity and preserve quality in the face of that growth?How can they better prepare students for college and the workforce, especially those from the fastest-growing populations (Hispanics and Asians/Pacific Islanders) for whom English may be a second language?


Challenges Ahead for States and Postsecondary Institutions

How can they enhance access and best ensure the success of all students, especially those who have been historically underserved?How can they preserve choice so that able students have a realistic chance to enroll at the college that best meets their needs and interests?How might colleges adjust to decreasing demand, but from an ever more diverse pool of recent high school graduates?

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