Working together to put CPS Technology on the Sustainability Table

David E. Culler University of California, BerkeleyAugust 2, 2011

What can we put on the table?

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Sustainability?

“Sustainable development should meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”

Our Common Future, World Commission on Environment and Development, United Nations, 1987

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Quantifying it - California Law AB  32  

Reduce  GHG  emissions  to   1990  levels  by  2020     

Governor’s  executive  order    S-3-05  (2005) 80%  reduction  below  1990   levels  by  2050   

Renewable Portfolio Standard 33% renewables by 2020, 20% biopower

procurement 480  =>  80   mmT  CO2e  in  40  years

Population expected to grow from 37 => 55 million Economic growth

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What it amounts to …

6

1990 2005 2020 2050Historical BAU

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Historical and BAU Emissions

En-ergy emissionsNon-en-ergy emissions

GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

(MtC

O2

e/y

r)

CA

1990

CA

2005

CA

2020 T

a..

.

CA

2050 T

a..

.

US 2

003

0

5

10

15

20

25

14.62

12.93

9.88

1.56

23.4

Per Capita CO2 Emissions

Metr

ic t

on

s C

O2 p

er

cap

ita p

er

year

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Can we do this?

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But

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My Take …

We can’t build our way to sustainability The discussion is focused on the Physical

New Windows, Materials, Motors, Biofuels, … Need to make the best of what we have,

or will have, and how we use it… This takes observation, intelligence and

control Demonstrable CPS technology on the

table Efficiency & Supply-Following Loads 10 years to innovate, 30 years to scale

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What’s on the Table? – buildings

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Deployed

Demonstrated

Development

Research

Concept

4 Part GHG Reduction Plan

Efficiency

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4 Part GHG Reduction Plan

Efficiency Electrify

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4 Part GHG Reduction Plan

Efficiency Electrify Decarboniz

e the electricity

Decarbonize the fuel

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4 Part GHG Reduction Plan

Efficiency Electrify Decarboniz

e the electricity

Decarbonize the fuel

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All required for even 60% reduction

but still fall short of 80%8/2/2011 15CPS-PI-11

Efficiency

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Electrification

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Low Carbon Electricity Options

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Build Rate

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The Renewables are there

208/2/2011CPS-PI-11 43% agriculture, 3.4% urbanized

The Problem: Supply-Demand Match

21

Baseline + Dispatchable Tiers Oblivious Loads

TransmissionGeneration DemandDistribution

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Load-following Supply (?)

8/2/2011CPS-PI-11 22Source: EEX spot prices.

Growing proportion of renewables leads to higher price volatility. October 2008 to March 2010:>90 hours with negative prices; highest price reached: +€500/MWh, lowest -€500/MWh

-500.02

Daily minimum price (indicated in red when negative)Daily maximum price

494.26

€/M

Wh

-150

-120

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

330

01.1

0.2

008

01.1

1.2

008

01.1

2.2

008

01.0

1.2

009

01.0

2.2

009

01.0

3.2

009

01.0

4.2

009

01.0

5.2

009

01.0

6.2

009

01.0

7.2

009

01.0

8.2

009

01.0

9.2

009

01.1

0.2

009

01.1

1.2

009

01.1

2.2

009

01.0

1.2

010

01.0

2.2

010

01.0

3.2

010

… and in CA

8/2/2011CPS-PI-11 23

Zero Emissions Load Balancing (ZELB)

Just the emissions from the natural gas to firm the 33% renewables exceeds GHG target

Even with 50% with natural gas & 50% with some yet-to-exist storage

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We Understand Supply

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Not demand

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Limits to Renewable Penetration

Variability, Intermittency of Supply

Visibility into Availability of Supply Ability of Loads to Adapt Algorithms and Techniques for

Reactive Load Adaptation

Capability of the Infrastructure to maintain the match

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CPS and the 4 Part GHG Reduction Plan

Efficiency

Electrify

Decarbonize the electricity

Decarbonize the fuel

28

Monitoring, Analysis, Modeling, Waste

Elimination, Power Proportionality, Optimal

ControlIntelligence,

Communication, adaptation in Everything

ZELB. Supply-Following Loads, Energy SLA, Cooperative Grid

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CPS Technology …

National-scale Physical Information Service Data collection, streaming, archiving,

querying Modeling, Analysis, Control Representation, metadata, life-cycle Use others’, contribute yours

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Some starts

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sMAP: Uniform Access to Diverse Physical Information

8/2/2011CPS-PI-11 31

Electrical

Weather

GeographicalWater

EnvironmentalStructural

Actuator

Occupancy

sMAP

Modeling

Visualization

ContinuousCommissioni

ngControl

PersonalFeedback

DebuggingStorageLocation

Authentication

Actuation

Ap

plic

atio

ns

Ph

ysic

al

Info

rmat

ion

REST API

HTTP/TCP

…

JSON Objects

Internet

Cell phonesMAP Gateway

sMAP

Modbus

RS-485

sMAP

sMAP Gateway

EBHTTP / IPv6 / 6LowPANWireless Mesh Network

sMAP

sMAP

sMAP

sMAP

Edge Router

Temperature/PAR/TSR

Vibration / Humidity

AC plug meter

Light switch

Den

t circ

uit m

eter

Prox

y Se

rver

EBH

TTP

Tran

slati

on

California ISO sMAP Gateway

sMAP Resources Applications

Google PowerMeter

Weather

sMAP

Every Building

Database

sMAP ecosystem

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Cory CEC B2G Testbed

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Whole BldgMCL equip

MCL infra

MCL vac

servers

DOP HVAC

Central vent

office HVAC

inst Lab 199 HVAC

Plug loads

Lighting

Parking Lot

DOE MELS => Appliance Energy

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LBNL Bldg 90611 of 1200 loads

DOE/UCB/Siemens Auto Demand Response

www.openbms.org8/2/2011 35

Sutardja Dai Hall

CPS-PI-11

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Lights & PlugsServers & CoolingNano FabHVACOtherP

ow

er

(kW

)

BACNet => sMAP

Sensors,Actuators Controllers

Modem

Siemens P2over RS-485

ApogeeServer

RemoteLogin

BACnet/IPGateway

sMAP

Internet

Sutardja Dai Hall

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Data from 1 Modern Building 1358 control settings

Set points, Relays (lights, pumps, etc), Schedules 2291 meters/sensors

Power (building, floor, lights, chiller, pumps, etc) Current, voltage, apparent, real, reactive, peak

Temp (rooms, chilled water, hot water) Air volume Alarms, Errors

2165 control outputs Dampers, valves, min/max flow, fan speed, PID

parameters 72 other

4+ million Commercial, 110+ million Residential

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Current sMAP demography

Name Sensor Type Physical Layer Sense Points

Channels

Cory Hall Submetering Dent Three-Phase Modbus + Ethernet 79 3318

Cory Hall Metering ION and pQube Meters HTTP/Ethernet 3 150

Cory Lab Temperature TelosB 802.15.4 + Ethernet 4 8

Cory Lab Machines ACme 804.15.4 + Ethernet 8 16

Cory Chilled Water HeatX Modbus + Ethernet 1 11

Cory Weather Vaisala WXT520 SDI-12 + Ethernet 1 11

Soda Hall Sun Blackbox Fan speed; environmental

Http/Ethernet 10 84

Soda Lab Machines ACme 802.15.4 + Ethernet 40 80

Soda Lab Panel Veris E30 Modbus + Ethernet 1 42

Soda SCADA Data Barrington controls RS-485/various “1” 1670

LBNL Building 90 Acme 802.15.4 + Ethernet 550 1650

Campus Power Data Obvius Aquisuite; various

XML/HTTP/Ethernet 4 100

Citris SDH BACnet Siemens Apogee BACnet/IP + RS-485 “1” 600+

Brower Buildinbg Johnsons Control BACnet “1” 1500

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insert

resample

aggregatequery

stre

amin

g p

ipel

ine

Page Cache

Lock Manager

Key-Value Store

Storage Alloc.

Time-series Interface

Bucketing RPCCompressi

on

read

ing

db

SQL

Storage mapper

MySQL

A Stream EngineD

e nt

cir

cui t m et er

sM

AP

sM

AP

~300k pts/sec

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Scaling Out in the Cloud

8/2/2011CPS-PI-11 40

Stream Management System

Data Processing

Data Source

Data Sink

Real Time Monitoring

HBase Hive

HDFS

Map

-Red

uc

eHadoop

Interactive Workloads

Analytics Workloads

Columnar Data Storage

Query TranslatorSQL MR

15,000 pts and growing…

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CPS Technology National-Scale Physical Info Service Software foundations, platforms and

solutions for Energy Efficiency and Agility

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Stages of Energy Effectiveness

Waste Not Do Nothing Well !!!

Power Proportionality Peak Performance : Power => Safety Optimize Partial Load - from nothing to

peakl Sculpting

Identify the energy slack and utilize it Negotiated Grid / Load / Human

Interaction Plan, Forecast, Negotiate, Manage

8/2/2011CPS-PI-11 43

8/2/201144

Lighting

Servers

PDUs, CRACs

Our Buildings

HVACIT and Plug Load

CPS-PI-11

8/2/2011 45

Power-Proportional Buildings ?

950 KW 1150 KW

Min = 82% of Max

Cory Hall: Office + Semiconductor + IT

CPS-PI-11

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Power-Proportional Buildings ?

1.45 MW 2.02 MW

Min = 72% of Max

Stanley Hall: Office + BioScience - 13 NMRs

CPS-PI-11

8/2/2011 47

Power-Proportional Buildings ?

62 KW

202 KW

Min = 31% of Max

LeConte Hall: Office

CPS-PI-11

Re-Flash the HVAC …

48

Whole Bldg

inst Lab 199 HVAC

8/2/2011CPS-PI-11

LoCal + ActionWebs

Learning-based Model Predictive Control

Mathematical model from Newton’s law of cooling

Model identified using semi-parametric regression

dT/dt = -krT - kcu(t) + kww(t)) + q(t)change in temperature

over time

time constantof room

AC cooling

weather heating from occupantsand equipment

11AM 12PM 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM

21

22

23

Time

(°C

)Temperature: Experimental (blue) Simulated (red)

11AM 12PM 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM

0.0285

0.029

(°C

/s)

Time

Heating from occupantsand equipment

8/2/2011 49(Aswani, Master, Taneja, Culler, Tomlin, Proc. of IEEE, 2011)

CPS-PI-11

50

Living Lab… LBMPC saved

30% energy when hotter outside 70% energy when cooler outside

Standard MPC was inconsistent Two-position control was inefficient

Method Measured Energy

Estimated Energy

Tracking Error

Temperature Variation

Average External Load

Two-Position Control Experiment

LBMPC 23.6kWh

0.75°C

0.13°C 11.0°C

Linear MPC 30.5kWh

0.62°C

0.30°C 11.0°C

Two-Position 32.6kWh

35.1kWh

0.61°C

0.20°C 11.0 °C

LBMPC Experiment

LBMPC 11.8kWh

13.3kWh

0.86°C

0.17°C 7.2°C

Linear MPC 8.6kWh 0.93°C

0.21°C 7.2°C

Two-Position 34.5kWh

0.55°C

0.19°C 7.2°C

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51

LBMPC to Minimize Energy… Estimates heating load using model

Best control that considers estimated occupancy

(Aswani, Master, Taneja, Culler, Tomlin, 2011, submitted)

Cost

AC Constraints

Temperature Constraints

Temperature Dynamics

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… or optimize to follow the supply

52

Generation

Transmission

Distribution

Load

VPG

8/2/2011CPS-PI-11

53

at Building-Scale, and beyond

TemperatureBlue – Measured; Red - Simulated

Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su20

22

24

°C

1

Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su20

22

24

°C

2

Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su20

22

24

°C

3

Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su20

22

24

°C

4

Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su20

22

24

°C

5

Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su20

22

24

°C

6

Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su20

22

24

°C

7

Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su20

22

24

°C

8

Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su20

22

24

°C

9

Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

°C

1

Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su

1.6

1.65

1.7

1.75

1.8

1.85

1.9

°C

2

Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

°C

3

Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su

1.6

1.65

1.7

1.75

1.8

°C

4

Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

°C

5

Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

°C

6

Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

°C

7

Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

1.7

1.75

°C

8

Tu W Th F Sa Su M Tu W Th F Sa Su

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

°C

9

Heating from occupants, equipment, etc.

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Making Sense out of Sensors

54

°°°

°°°

°°°

8/2/2011CPS-PI-11

Supply Air Fan VFD

55

2 132 262 392 522 652 782 912 1042117213021432156216921822195250

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

Input

Output

OAT

8/2/2011CPS-PI-11

What’s really going on?

Bring comfortable air from outside Cool it down till its really cold Push it out everywhere thru VAVs that are

at minimum opening Reheat it to set point So the empty rooms will be comfortable

This is going on everywhere! And we supply perfect, precious energy to

do it!

568/2/2011CPS-PI-11

230

15

248

87

190

13

190

13

200

14

161

19

287

48

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Wat

ts

Pow

erE

dge

1850

Del

l Pow

erE

dge

1950

Sun

Fire

V60

x

Sun

Fire

x21

00 -

Cyb

er S

witc

hing

Sun

Fire

X22

00

Com

paq

DL3

60

HP

Int

egrit

y rx

2600

Server Power Consumption

Active

Idle

And IT is no better …

Core i7

Atom 333 Westmere

4/12/11 57CPS 2011

Supply-Following Computational Loads

8/2/2011CPS-PI-11 58

IPSRequests

Power

Background Processing (shiftable)

Controllable Storage

QoS (fidelity & latency)

Availability

Forecasts

Non-dispatchable, variable supply

Power proportional, grid-aware loads

NREL Western Wind and Solar Integration Study Datasethttp://wind.nrel.gov/Web_nrel/

Pacheco wind farm

Scientific computing cluster

Energy-Availability Driven Scheduling

8/2/2011CPS-PI-11 59

Scheduling & Energy Storage

8/2/2011 60CPS-PI-11

CPS Technology National Physical Info Service Software foundations for Energy

Efficiency and Agility Infrastructure for Energy Innovation

618/2/2011CPS-PI-11

Personalized Automated Lighting Control

Three controllable ballasts per fixture

~5 zones per floor

BACnetsMAP

MySQLPythonDjango

PythonControl Process

HTTP

Gateway

8/2/2011 62CPS-PI-11

Real Energy Savings

8/2/2011CPS-PI-11 63

Befo

re

13-M

ay

20-M

ay

27-M

ay

3-Ju

n

10-Ju

n

17-Ju

n

24-Ju

n1-

Jul

8-Ju

l

15-Ju

l0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0 0

0.58

0.680.69

0.63

0.53

0.650.68

0.750.71

0.61

SDH 4th Floor Lighting Energy Usage

Colab Sav-ingsFloor kWCollab kW

KW

From the agony of load-following …

648/2/2011CPS-PI-11

to Co-operative Energy Mgmt in a Cyber-Physical Grid

65

Load IPS

Source IPS

energy subnet

Intelligent Power Switch

• Monitor, Model, Mitigate• Deep instrumentation• Power proportional Design• Energy-Agile Control

• Shifting, Scheduling, Adaptation

• Forecasting• Tracking• Market

• Availability• Pricing• Planning

8/2/2011CPS-PI-11

Thanks

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