Project Update & Transitioning to Full Operational Project Update & Transitioning to Full Operational (Official) Status for Eastern and Southern Regions(Official) Status for Eastern and Southern Regions
David SharpNOAA/NWS Melbourne, FL
Pablo SantosNOAA/NWS Miami, FL
NOAA Hurricane Conference – 2010
Item 10-53
Tropical CycloneTropical CycloneImpacts Graphics Impacts Graphics
Assessing Threat & Potential ImpactAssessing Threat & Potential Impactfor Local Areasfor Local Areas
• Deterministic Assessment
– “Best Forecast”
• Local weather inputs; magnitude-only
• Expected impacts if forecast was perfect
• Probabilistic Assessment
– “Spectrum of Plausible Forecasts”
• Accounts for uncertainty; percent exceedance
• Potential impacts knowing forecast isn’t perfect
• Combined Assessments
– “What You Should Prepare For”
• Includes forecaster refinements
• Composite Maximums of Combined Assessments Over Event Time
• Potential impacts for decision assistance
Starting with the official forecast from the national center (NHC) for wind or surge…
tornado
wind
surge
flood
Developmental &Experimental Periods
• Under development for over 10 years – Since Hurricane Floyd
• Limited experimental status for ~4 years
• More comprehensive status for ~2 years– Nearly all coastal offices from Brownsville to
Caribou, to include San Juan– WFOs acquiring experience
• Wide-audience feedback
It’s Decision-Time
• Propose to transition the Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics to operational (official) status for 2012– Eastern & Southern Regions
• at that time
– Pacific & Western Regions• phased-in
What Will It Take
• Final Testing for 2011 Season• Operational Best Practices• Operational Support• Back-up Services Capability• Operating Versions of the Tools• Threat/Impact Definitions Audit• Web Pages Functionality Audit• Training Updates• Supporting Policies/Directives• Others ???
Issues & Experiences
• Overall … Past Seasons– Need to update graphics with each HLS issuance– Run Coastal Flood Threat Tool before HLS formatter
• Consider this for all tools
– “Voodoo” tool configurations – Settle on Approach (which is it?)
• Common thresholds with locally unique descriptions• Locally unique thresholds with common descriptions• Sliding scale of common thresholds with
locally unique descriptions
– Impact descriptions re-assessed– NDFD (from discrete to scalar grid?)
Issues & Experiences
• Overall– Consistency between number of graphic levels vs. the
number of impact description levels– Auto-update for the web site
• For situational awareness monitoring
– KML files for GIS systems
Issues & Experiences• High Wind Threat Tool
– Code for local variations
• Coastal Flood Threat Tool– Availability of Psurge for tropical storms
– Availability of deterministic SLOSH
– Upgrade Topo with better land/sea mask
• Inland Flooding Threat Tool– Gridded FFG
– HPC PQPF
• Tornado Threat Tool– Coordinate with gHWO tool logic
Again, Will It Take
• Final Testing for 2011 Season• Operational Best Practices• Operational Support• Back-up Services Capability• Operating Versions of the Tools• Threat/Impact Definitions Audit• Web Pages Functionality Audit• Training Updates• Supporting Policies/Directives• Others ???
Recommendations
• Reconvene the Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics team to completely identify the list of required steps for operational transition (for 2012). The team will develop a prioritized tasking list and execute the steps according to timeline.– Some technical assistance from
outside the team will be needed
Thank You !!!Thank You !!!